Group 1 - In April 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 37,174 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%. Excluding automobiles, the retail sales amounted to 33,548 billion yuan, growing by 5.6% [2][4][13] - From January to April 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 161,845 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.7%. Excluding automobiles, the retail sales were 147,005 billion yuan, with a growth of 5.2% [2][4] Group 2 - The sales of products related to the "old-for-new" policy showed significant growth, contributing positively to the overall retail sales. In April, the retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment increased by 38.8%, 33.5%, 26.9%, and 19.9% respectively [4][12][14] - The service retail market maintained stable growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.1% in the first four months of 2025, outpacing the growth of goods retail [10][13] Group 3 - The county and rural markets experienced faster growth compared to urban areas, with retail sales in these regions growing by 5.1% in the first four months, accounting for 39.4% of the total retail sales [8][5] - Online retail sales reached 47,419 billion yuan in the first four months, growing by 7.7%, with physical goods online retail sales increasing by 5.8% [11][10] Group 4 - The demand for upgraded and green products is on the rise, with significant sales growth in categories such as gold and silver jewelry (25.3%) and sports and entertainment products (23.3%) [12][14] - The automotive market showed strong performance, with retail sales of passenger vehicles reaching 1.755 million units in April, a year-on-year increase of 14.5% [4][13]

Research Views - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Wind All A index rising 0.17% and trading volume reaching 1.12 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index rose 0.45%, the CSI 500 index rose 0.09%, while the SSE 50 index fell 0.43% and the SSE 300 index fell 0.31%. The economic data in April declined slightly compared to March but remained resilient. The year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 5.1%, supported by the "trade-in" policy. The social credit demand was weak in April, with the cumulative new RMB loans reaching 10.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.86%, and the year-on-year growth of M2 at 8%. The joint statement between China and the US laid a good foundation for further trade negotiations, exceeding market expectations. Recently, the central bank announced a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut policy, and the financial regulatory authority emphasized promoting long-term funds to enter the market. The CSRC plans to optimize the fee model of active equity funds. The internal policy is the main line for the stock index in 2025. In the first quarter, the revenue growth rate of A-share listed companies narrowed for three consecutive quarters, the net profit increased by about 4% year-on-year, but the ROE is still in the bottoming stage. These measures are beneficial for enterprises to repair their balance sheets and promote the stable development of the real economy, leading to a stable increase in stock market valuations. The view on the stock index is "oscillation" [1]. - The 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bond futures rose 0.02%, 0.04%, 0.13%, and 0.37% respectively. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 9.2 billion yuan. The DR001 and DR007 rates decreased by 9bp and 4bp to 1.54% and 1.60% respectively. The bond market was previously supported by expectations of monetary policy easing and a weakening pricing fundamentals due to tariffs. However, the situation has changed. On May 7th, a series of incremental measures were introduced, and the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut were implemented, fulfilling the market's expectations. On May 12th, China and the US announced a significant reduction in mutual tariffs, which led to a rapid increase in market risk appetite and was negative for the bond market. Looking forward, the bond market is expected to oscillate weakly, and the yield curve is expected to steepen again [2]. Daily Price Changes - For stock index futures, IH decreased by 0.24%, IF decreased by 0.07%, IC increased by 0.38%, and IM increased by 0.70%. For stock indices, the SSE 50 decreased by 0.43%, the SSE 300 decreased by 0.31%, the CSI 500 increased by 0.09%, and the CSI 1000 increased by 0.45%. For treasury bond futures, TS remained unchanged, TF rose 0.26%, T rose 0.32%, and TL rose 0.34% [3]. Market News - In April, the year-on-year growth of industrial added value above designated size was 6.1%, higher than the expected 5.2%. The year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 5.1%, slightly lower than the expected 5.5%. From January to April, the cumulative year-on-year growth of fixed asset investment was 4.0%, lower than the expected 4.3%. The cumulative year-on-year growth of manufacturing investment was 8.8%, the cumulative year-on-year growth of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was 5.8%, and the cumulative year-on-year decline of real estate development investment was 10.3%. From January to April, the cumulative year-on-year decline of real estate sales area was 2.8%, the new construction area decreased by 23.8% year-on-year, the construction area decreased by 10.1% year-on-year, and the completion area decreased by 16.8% year-on-year [4]. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report includes charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trends of these contracts [6][7][10]. Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][16][18]. Exchange Rates - The report provides charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [21][22][25]

中国银行下调人民币存款利率 最大降幅25个基点 中国银行于5月20日下调人民币存款利率，其中活期利率下调5个基点至0.05%；定期整存整取三个月 期、半年期、一年期、二年期均下调15个基点，分别为0.65%、0.85%、0.95%、1.05%；三年期和五年 期均下调25个基点，分别至1.25%和1.3%。定期零存整取、整存零取、存本取息三种期限均下跌15个基 点。7天期通知存款利率下调15个基点至0.3%。 国有六大行集体下调存款利率 中国银行于5月20日下调人民币存款利率，其中活期利率下调5个基点至0.05%；定期整存整取三个月 期、半年期、一年期、二年期均下调15个基点，分别为0.65%、0.85%、0.95%、1.05%；三年期和五年 期均下调25个基点，分别至1.25%和1.3%。定期零存整取、整存零取、存本取息三种期限均下调15个基 点。7天期通知存款利率下调15个基点至0.3%。 农业银行于5月20日下调人民币存款利率，其中活期利率下调5个基点至0.05%；定期整存整取三个月 期、半年期、一年期、二年期均下调15个基点，分别为0.65%、0.85%、0.95%、1.05%；三年期和五年 期均下调2 ...

Economic Overview - In April, industrial and service sector weighted year-on-year growth was 6.1%, down from 6.8% in March but higher than the 5.7% in January-February[1] - April's export delivery value increased by only 0.9% year-on-year, a significant slowdown from March's 7.7%[2] - Retail sales grew by 5.1% year-on-year in April, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from March, but still above 5%[4] Trade and Investment Insights - The contribution of export delivery value to industrial revenue dropped to approximately 0.1%, down from 0.8% in March, indicating a significant decline in export-driven growth[2] - Fixed asset investment in April showed a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, with manufacturing investment slowing from 9.2% in March to 8.2% in April[3][6] - Equipment and tool purchases accounted for 64.5% of total investment growth, with a year-on-year increase of 18.2% from January to April[6] Real Estate Market Trends - Real estate sales in April saw a year-on-year decline of 2.1% in sales area and 6.7% in sales value, indicating a slowdown in the housing market[7] - The average price of new homes in April declined, with second-hand housing prices in 70 cities dropping by 0.4% month-on-month[7][8] - Financing for real estate development decreased by 4.1% year-on-year from January to April, reflecting a decline in pre-sale deposits and personal mortgage loans[7] Future Outlook - The potential for a new round of export growth is anticipated due to tariff reductions between the U.S. and China, which may lead to a surge in exports from mid-May to August[8] - Domestic policy adjustments may be delayed until August-September, with a focus on monetary easing as the economy stabilizes[9] - The stock market may experience narrow fluctuations, with a need for clear signals of fundamental recovery to drive further strength[9]

Core Insights - The "trade-in for new" policy in China is significantly boosting the automotive market, with a reported 10 million applications for subsidies, indicating strong consumer interest and activity in the sector [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The "trade-in for new" policy has led to a notable increase in consumer activity, with the Ministry of Commerce reporting over 10 million applications for subsidies, including 3.225 million applications in 2025 alone [4]. - The policy has effectively stimulated consumption growth, green transformation, and resource recycling, with over 53% of trade-ins involving new energy vehicles [4]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Many consumers are opting to trade in their old vehicles for new energy vehicles, with a significant number of trade-ins coming from brands like Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi [3]. - Discounts and subsidies are making new energy vehicles more attractive, with some consumers reporting total savings of up to 34,000 yuan when trading in for models like the Li Auto L6Pro [2]. Group 3: Company Performance - Companies like Li Auto have seen a substantial increase in trade-in orders, with over 10,000 orders reported as of May 18, and the Li L6 model being particularly popular [5]. - Xiaopeng Motors and Leap Motor have also experienced rapid sales growth, with Xiaopeng breaking traditional seasonal sales patterns and Leap Motor increasing monthly sales from 10,000 to 40,000 units since the policy's implementation [6]. Group 4: New Product Launches - The automotive industry is actively launching new models to attract consumers, with companies like Xiaomi, Great Wall, and NIO introducing new vehicles to enhance market offerings [7]. - NIO plans to release nine new models this year, with significant promotional offers for early reservations, indicating a competitive push in the market [7].

Economic Overview - In April 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year, down from 5.9% in March[2] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.0% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous month's 4.2%[2] - The industrial added value for large enterprises rose by 6.1% year-on-year, a decrease from 7.7% in March[2] Industrial Performance - The industrial production growth rate remains above last year's average of 5.6%, despite a slight decline due to reduced "export rush" effects[2] - High-tech manufacturing saw a growth rate of 10.0%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 3.9 percentage points[2] - Exports showed a decline, with the export delivery value dropping to 0.9% year-on-year in April[2] Consumer Behavior - Offline consumption rebounded significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4% in April[2] - The "trade-in" effect contributed notably to retail growth, with categories like home appliances and office supplies seeing retail growth rates of 38.8% and 33.5%, respectively[2] - Jewelry retail sales increased by 25.3%, driven by high gold prices[2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth showed a slight decline, with real estate investment remaining low at a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%[2] - Infrastructure investment growth rates were 9.6% for broad infrastructure and 5.8% for narrow infrastructure in April[2] - Real estate sales continued to weaken, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.8%[2] Risks and Outlook - Potential risks include policy implementation falling short of expectations and uncertainties surrounding tariff policies[2] - The easing of U.S.-China trade tensions may provide a temporary boost to exports in the second quarter[2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [5][11]. Core Insights - In April 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations of 5.5%. The total reached 3.7 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month decline of 0.8 percentage points [5]. - The report emphasizes the government's focus on expanding domestic demand, with policies aimed at boosting service consumption and enhancing consumer willingness [5]. - Online retail penetration continues to rise, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.7% for the first four months of 2025, outperforming the overall retail growth by 3.0 percentage points [5]. - The service retail sector saw a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, with the government prioritizing policies to stimulate service consumption [5]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - April 2025 retail sales grew by 5.1% year-on-year, with a total of 3.7 trillion yuan. Excluding automobiles, retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.6% [5]. - Online retail sales reached 931.7 billion yuan in April, growing by 6.12% year-on-year, with an online penetration rate of 25.1% [5]. Consumer Behavior and Policy Impact - The report highlights the effectiveness of consumption promotion policies, with significant growth in categories such as communication equipment (+19.9%) and home appliances (+38.8%) [5]. - The government has introduced measures to enhance consumer confidence, particularly in the service sector, which saw a production index increase of 6.0% year-on-year in April [5]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several sectors with strong growth potential, including e-commerce (Alibaba, JD.com, Meituan), department stores (DASHANG, Yonghui Supermarket), and the tourism industry (ShouLai Hotel, Jinhai Mountain) [5][6]. - The report suggests that the gold and jewelry sector will benefit from rising gold prices, with companies like LaoPu Gold and CaiBai maintaining strong growth [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The April economic data indicates a mixed performance in China's economy, with strong industrial production and consumption, but a decline in investment and real estate sectors [1][13]. Demand Side - April's external demand faced challenges due to reciprocal tariffs, leading to a significant drop in exports to the US; however, transshipment trade helped maintain export resilience [1][2]. - Internal demand showed a decline in both investment and consumption, although consumption remained at a high level; investment was dragged down by the real estate and manufacturing sectors [1][7]. Production Side - Industrial production maintained a high level, with April's industrial value-added growth rate dropping to 6.1%, supported by equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing [3][5]. - The service sector's production index slightly decreased, but still benefited from low base effects and consumption recovery [3]. Investment Trends - National fixed asset investment growth rate fell by 0.8 percentage points to 3.5%, with real estate investment continuing to decline significantly [7]. - High-tech industry investments performed well, particularly in information services and computer manufacturing, with year-on-year growth rates of 40.6% and 28.9% respectively [7]. Consumption Patterns - Retail sales growth rate decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 5.1%, while service retail sales showed an upward trend, particularly in tourism-related sectors [9]. - Essential consumer goods saw a decline in growth, while sectors benefiting from trade-in programs performed strongly [9]. Real Estate Market - Real estate sales area growth rate worsened to -2.1%, with new construction area also declining significantly [11]. - Despite the drop in sales volume, housing prices continued to rise, with the decline in new and second-hand housing prices narrowing [11]. Employment and External Factors - The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, indicating a steady employment situation despite external challenges [13]. - Future export performance may exceed expectations due to potential European recovery, although this could lead to a more cautious domestic policy response [13].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed financial performance for Q1 2025, with a slight increase in revenue but a net loss, indicating challenges in the market despite some positive factors [1][3]. Financial Performance - The consolidated revenue for Q1 2025 was NT$ 559 billion (approximately RMB 133.59 billion) [1]. - The operating net loss was NT$ 12 billion (approximately RMB 2.87 billion), while the net profit after tax was NT$ 11 billion (approximately RMB 2.63 billion) [1]. - Depreciation and amortization for the quarter amounted to NT$ 75 billion (approximately RMB 17.92 billion), and capital expenditures were NT$ 35 billion (approximately RMB 8.36 billion) [1]. Revenue Composition - The revenue composition for Q1 2025 was as follows: TV products accounted for 34%, automotive products 24%, portable computers 17%, mobile and commercial products 21%, and desktop screens 4% [1]. - The revenue split by business area showed that the display business contributed 75% while non-display business contributed 25% [1]. Market Factors and Outlook - The company benefited from the "trade-in" consumer policy subsidies and customers' preemptive stocking, which helped mitigate trade barrier impacts, leading to an increase in consumer product revenue [3]. - Overall revenue increased by 4.2% quarter-on-quarter, with gross margin and EBITDA margin at 7.6% and 11.1%, respectively [3]. - Looking ahead to Q2 2025, the company anticipates uncertainties in the consumer electronics market due to trade barriers, but the impact on automotive and non-display sectors is expected to be less significant [3]. - The company plans to continuously adjust its product mix and promote high-margin products to enhance competitiveness and maintain stable operations [3].

汽车稳则社零增长动力强，愈发成为共识。 近年来，中国汽车产业在规模、创新和全球化层面实现跨越式发展。2024年在"两新"政策带动下，汽车市场取得了不错的成绩。据统计，2024年我国 汽车流通行业总产值高达4.8万亿元，占全国社会消费品零售额的比重接近11％，首次超越房地产成为国民经济第一支柱。 今年，我国继续加力扩围实施"两新"政策，汽车市场还有哪些潜力待挖？在4月25日举办的2025中国汽车消费论坛上，与会人士着重探讨了汽车流通 行业应如何抓住政策机遇激活消费动力，以及在"两新"政策之外，如何培育汽车消费的新增长点，从而推动汽车消费扩容等话题。 流通端多方发力提振车市 "汽车行业作为国民经济的重要支柱，汽车消费作为国内消费市场和对外贸易的重要组成部分，与国家提振消费、创新业态的核心任务息息相关。"中 国汽车流通协会会长肖政三表示，中国汽车流通协会紧密配合政府主管部门，以各项促进汽车消费政策落地为核心，从三个方面提振汽车消费市场进一步 升级。 首先，带领行业构建新型流通与服务体系，创新销售与体验模式，增强消费者数字化购车体验和对智能网联技术的认知，加大对包括新能源汽车在内 的整体汽车消费升级。进一步优化二手车 ...