Market Outlook and ETF Strategy - The current phase of the A-share market indicates a stabilization of external disturbances, with support on the downside and potential catalysts on the upside, leading to an expected short-term oscillating trend [2] - Following the Geneva talks between China and the US, tariff trade risks have eased, and the index has returned to pre-tariff levels, showcasing the A-share market's resilience against global risks [2] - Despite a recent decline in market volume and rapid sector rotation, the A-share market is expected to maintain a primary oscillating trend due to the lack of strong catalysts for further upward movement [2] - The recommended investment strategy is a "barbell" approach, focusing on large-cap stocks and technology growth sectors, with a dual emphasis on public fund allocation and defensive strategies [2] Industry and Thematic Trends - Currently, the market lacks a clear mainline, with dispersed hotspots and no single sector attracting significant monthly trading consensus [2] - In the medium term, under the "broad monetary + weak dollar" framework, technology growth styles are expected to perform well, particularly in areas such as self-sufficiency, AI, and robotics [2] - The report suggests focusing on two main directions for industry/theme ETF allocations: self-sufficiency and industry trends, particularly in semiconductor equipment and high-end manufacturing ETFs [2][3] ETF Recommendations - The report lists specific ETFs for investment, including: - Large-cap ETFs such as the Huaxia SSE 50 ETF (规模: 1649.7 million) and the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (规模: 3800.7 million) [4] - Dividend-focused ETFs like the CCB CSI 300 Dividend ETF (规模: 2.8 million) and the Invesco CSI 100 Low Volatility Dividend ETF (规模: 62.1 million) [4] - Thematic ETFs including the Huaxia National Semiconductor Equipment ETF (规模: 22.8 million) and the E Fund National Robotics Industry ETF (规模: 13.9 million) [4][13]

房地产市场在 4 月份表现如何？ 4 月份房地产市场表现逊于预期，基本面较为疲软。房地产市场需求指数从去 年（2024 年）4 月到今年（2025 年）首次出现回落。房地产投资增速也在下 降，二手房市场销售总额和房价均有所下修，各城市的新房和二手房价格走弱。 在销售走弱背景下，市场警戒度自去年（2024 年）以来首次回落。预计下一 步更多的增量政策将聚焦房地产领域，以应对内部政策预期和外部关税冲击压 力。 银河总量之声 经济的韧性 20250519 摘要 • 4 月房地产市场表现疲软，需求指数首次回落，投资增速下降，新房和二 手房价格走弱，市场警戒度降低。预计更多增量政策将聚焦房地产领域， 以应对内外部压力。 • 4 月消费整体表现良好，同比增长 5.1%，得益于以旧换新政策的拉动，尤 其是家电类消费增速显著。全年消费预计保持平稳增长，但能否进一步提 升需关注政策支持。 • 投资整体同比增速为 4%，低于经济增速。制造业投资虽放缓但仍处高位， 基建投资累计增速持平。预计后续地方政府专项债提升空间大，基建投资 将保持稳定并小幅上升。 • 面对外部关税冲击，逆周期调控将聚焦房地产，落实存量政策。地方政府 专项债提 ...

报告导读： 中美第一阶段关税摩擦缓和，形成有利的做多窗口，建议围绕"科技成长+消 费复苏"双主线布局。关税博弈下自主可控和内需发力仍然是确定性较强的主线，由于权 益市场风险偏好有望回升，人形机器人、AI、低空经济等主题投资机会有望回归。 本文摘自：2025年5月19日发布的 轮动加速，主线掘金 顾一格 ，资格证书编号： S0880522120006 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 转债市场快速触底反弹，当前估值性价比优于4月初水平。 全市场转债价格中位数从4月初的120.94元快 速下跌至4月7日的115元，随后修复至120.13元。平价在90-110元的转债的加权平均转股溢价率先被动 拉升，后随着正股上涨逐步消化，目前为21.07%，略低于4月初的水平（22.44%）。高平价转债（平价 在130元以上）的加权平均转股溢价率较4月初明显压缩，偏债转债的估值水平也已逼近4月初水平，转债 整体性价比较4月初更高。考虑到5-6月权益市场有望继续走出升势，转债市场信用风险相对可控，低利 率背景下转债仍有较多的刚性需求。当前平衡和偏股型转债估值相对合理，跟涨弹性较好。 中美第一阶段关税摩擦缓和， ...

风险提示： 理财赎回风险；转债转股溢价率压缩风险；转债正股表现不及预期。 >>以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已经发布的研究报告 ： 轮动加速，主线掘金——转债市场点评 ，具体分析内容（包括风险提示等） 请 详见完 整版报告。 【 食品饮料】首选新消费、高成长——食品饮料行业周报 每周一景： 云南玉龙雪山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【 固收】轮动加速，主线掘金——转债市场点评 从关税摩擦缓和预期到第一阶段协议落地，关税摩擦对权益市场的冲击基本修复。 4 月 3 日以来，权益 市场上演了"关税冲击 - 缓和预期交易 - 协议落地后轮动加速"的行情。 4 月初中美关税摩擦升级，投资 者避险情绪升温，权益市场和转债市场受到较大冲击， 4 月 7 日上证指数单日下跌 7.34% ，转债相对抗 跌，随后市场逐步反弹。 5 月 12 日，中美日内瓦经贸会谈达成协议，中美第一阶段的关税摩擦告一段 落。截至 5 月 16 日，上证指数、沪深 300 、万得全 A 指数已超过 4 月 2 日的水平，中证 1000 也已 修复至接近 4 月 2 日的水平。 回顾 2018-2019 年中美贸易摩擦，双方交锋的中后期权益市场对于利空的 ...

Core Insights - The report suggests that the easing of the US-China tariff friction creates a favorable window for bullish investments, recommending a dual focus on "technology growth + consumer recovery" [1][16] - The report highlights that the market's response to tariff impacts has been relatively quick and fully priced in compared to previous trade tensions, indicating a more resilient market sentiment [13][12] Market Overview - Following the easing of tariff tensions, the equity market has shown signs of recovery, with major indices surpassing their levels from early April. The Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and the Wind All A Index have all exceeded their April 2 levels as of May 16 [4][9] - The report notes that the convertible bond market has rebounded quickly, with the median price recovering from 115 yuan on April 7 to 120.13 yuan, indicating improved valuation attractiveness compared to early April [14][15] Investment Strategy - The report recommends prioritizing convertible bonds with lower absolute prices, especially those with high export revenue exposure, to hedge against potential volatility in the market [16][18] - It emphasizes that the themes of self-sufficiency and domestic demand are strong investment lines, alongside the potential resurgence of investment opportunities in humanoid robots, AI, and low-altitude economy sectors as market risk appetite improves [1][18] Sector Performance - The report observes a divergence in performance between large-cap and small-cap indices, with large-cap indices performing better in the wake of tariff easing, while small-cap indices experienced some pullback [6][7] - The transportation sector has led gains in the wake of tariff easing, with financial sectors and domestic demand-related stocks also showing strong performance [6]

Core Insights - Huawei officially launched the HarmonyOS 5-powered Harmony PC on May 19, marking a significant milestone in the development of domestic operating systems for PCs, filling a 30-year gap in fully self-developed domestic operating systems [1][4] - The introduction of Harmony PC is not just a new product but a symbol of the advancement of domestic operating systems, potentially improving the "strong outside, weak inside" structure of China's database market [1][4] - The trend towards self-control and independence in technology is evident, with domestic database solutions like Kylin Software's SUNDB emerging to meet the demand for data security and self-reliance [1][4] Domestic Database Market Dynamics - According to IDC 2023 data, the top three players in China's relational database software market are Alibaba, Tencent, and Huawei, with market shares of 26.2%, 14.9%, and 11.1% respectively, indicating a strong presence of domestic companies [1][4] - The domestic database replacement rate in key sectors is increasing, with the party and government sectors achieving an 80% replacement rate, while the banking and insurance sectors are at 40% [5][6] Security and Performance Advantages - The TEE microkernel security architecture of Harmony PC has achieved CC EAL5+ certification, providing robust data security [6] - In the financial sector, the collaboration between the domestic database and Harmony OS has significantly reduced data encryption loss rates from 12% on Windows to below 3% [7] - A provincial government cloud platform reported an 82% reduction in vulnerability discovery after adapting Harmony PC with a domestic database [7] Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The push for domestic database solutions is expected to accelerate, with a target for 100% domestic replacement in key sectors by 2027 as outlined by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [8] - The data ETF (516000) is positioned to benefit from the domestic data industry growth, tracking the China Securities Big Data Industry Index and including key players across the data value chain [9][12] - The development of domestic databases is anticipated to enhance the overall competitiveness of the big data industry, leading to a policy and industry resonance that could favor data ETFs [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Artificial Intelligence Index and the implications of new U.S. regulations on AI technology exports to China, highlighting the need for domestic AI industry localization and self-sufficiency [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 19, 2025, the Shanghai Sci-Tech Innovation Board Artificial Intelligence Index (950180) decreased by 1.00%, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [3]. - Zhongyou Technology (688648) led the gains with an increase of 3.61%, while Tianzhun Technology (688003) experienced the largest decline at 4.82% [3]. - The Sci-Tech AI ETF (588790) fell by 0.86%, with a latest price of 0.58 yuan and a turnover rate of 4.16%, totaling a transaction volume of 121 million yuan [3]. Group 2: Regulatory Impact - The U.S. Department of Commerce has announced the repeal of AI diffusion rules from the Biden administration, introducing new guidelines that tighten controls on the AI industry in China, including restrictions on high-performance computing chips and AI technology services [4]. - The domestic AI industry is urged to accelerate localization and self-sufficiency in response to these regulatory changes [4]. Group 3: Fund Performance - The Sci-Tech AI ETF has seen significant growth, with an increase of 42.89 million yuan in scale over the past week, ranking second among comparable funds [4]. - The ETF's share count rose by 18.6 million shares in the same period, placing it first among comparable funds [4]. - The ETF has recorded a net outflow of 13.97 million yuan recently, but has attracted a total of 96.07 million yuan over the last five trading days [5]. Group 4: Leverage and Returns - Leverage funds have been actively buying into the Sci-Tech AI ETF, with a net purchase of 13.81 million yuan on the highest single day, bringing the latest financing balance to 64.20 million yuan [5]. - Since its inception, the ETF has achieved a maximum monthly return of 15.59% and an average monthly return of 15.59% during rising months, with a 70.97% probability of profit over three months [5]. Group 5: Index Composition - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai Sci-Tech Innovation Board Artificial Intelligence Index accounted for 70.68% of the index, with Lanqi Technology (688008) holding the highest weight at 10.47% [6][8].

Group 1 - The A-share market opened lower and experienced fluctuations, with a slight adjustment in artificial intelligence stocks. The Kexin Chip ETF (588200) fell by 0.46%, with a trading volume exceeding 350 million yuan, ranking first among similar ETF products [1] - The Kexin Chip ETF (588200) has seen continuous net inflows of funds recently, accumulating over 120 million yuan in the last five trading days, with inflows on four of those days [1] - The Kexin Chip ETF (588200) tracks the Kexin Chip Index, which selects securities related to semiconductor materials, equipment, chip design, manufacturing, packaging, and testing from companies listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1] Group 2 - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang stated that the company will not release the Hopper series products for the Chinese market after the H20 chip, as it cannot be adjusted further. The H20 chip is currently the only high-performance AI chip allowed for sale to China under existing regulations [2] - According to CITIC Securities, the measures taken by the U.S. government are expected to have a certain degree of repair for overseas AI chains, while the domestic focus remains on strengthening self-control and building a Chinese AI supply chain and technology system [2] - The AI sector's investment value is highlighted as particularly prominent in the current market environment, with significant funding interest in AI cloud and terminal industry chain companies, maintaining high valuations [2]

Core Viewpoint - Baoxin Software, a subsidiary of China Baowu Group, focuses on independent research and development to support national strategies, with significant investments in R&D and advancements in industrial automation technology [1][2][3]. Group 1: R&D Investment and Achievements - In 2024, Baoxin Software's R&D investment reached 1.461 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 10.7% of its annual revenue [3][4]. - From 2021 to 2023, the company's annual R&D investments exceeded 1 billion yuan, totaling 5.637 billion yuan over the four years [3][4]. - The company launched its self-developed PLC (Programmable Logic Controller) T3 and T4 series in September 2024, marking a significant breakthrough in domestic industrial control technology [4][5]. Group 2: Company Growth and Financial Performance - Baoxin Software has evolved from a department of Baosteel established in 1978 to a leading software enterprise in China, with a focus on smart manufacturing solutions [2][9]. - The company's revenue and net profit have shown substantial growth since its listing, with 2023 revenue at 12.916 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.554 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.82% [9][10]. - Despite a slight revenue decline in 2023, the company maintained strong profitability, with net profits of 2.265 billion yuan in 2024 and 445 million yuan in Q1 2024 [10]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives and Market Position - Baoxin Software is committed to building an internationally leading industrial internet platform, focusing on digital transformation and smart manufacturing across various industries [2][3]. - The company has actively pursued mergers and acquisitions to enhance its R&D capabilities, including acquiring a majority stake in Feima Zhike and investing in Turing Robotics to enter the high-end robotics market [8][10]. - Baoxin Software has distributed over 10.057 billion yuan in cash dividends since its listing, with an average dividend payout ratio exceeding 60% [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the chemical industry, particularly focusing on new materials [1]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery in prices due to easing trade tensions between China and the U.S., leading to a replenishment window for trade [9]. - The report highlights a significant year-on-year increase of 49% in the production of power and other batteries in April, despite a slight month-on-month decline of 0.03% [1][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of new materials, particularly those that are domestically produced and can replace imports, as a key investment opportunity [10]. Industry Overview - The chemical industry has a total market capitalization of approximately 426.56 billion yuan, with 486 listed companies [1]. - The Huachuang Chemical Industry Index stands at 79.16, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.95% but a year-on-year decrease of 21.44% [20][22]. - The report notes that the industry price percentile is at 21.88% over the past decade, with a slight increase of 0.37% week-on-week [9][20]. New Materials Sector - The new materials sector has shown a week-on-week increase of 0.26%, underperforming compared to the basic chemical sector, which increased by 1.21% [11][29]. - The report identifies specific companies in the new materials sector that are recommended for investment, including Ruifeng New Materials, Tongyi Zhong, and Lianlong [9]. - The report also mentions the impact of regulatory changes on the safety standards for power batteries, which will be enforced starting July 1, 2026, pushing companies to enhance their battery management systems [13][14]. Price Movements - The report indicates that nitrogen prices increased by 2.97%, while electronic-grade sulfuric acid saw a significant drop of 11.90% [11][26]. - The report provides a detailed overview of price changes in various materials, highlighting both increases and decreases across different sectors [27]. Market Performance - The report notes that the new materials sector is expected to benefit from the ongoing trends in domestic production and import substitution, particularly in high-demand areas such as robotics and renewable energy materials [10][15]. - The report also highlights the performance of specific stocks within the new materials sector, noting both the top gainers and losers for the week [29].