Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced significant declines, with the S&P 500 dropping by 2.36% and the Nasdaq falling by 2.17% due to heightened global risk aversion following Trump's tariffs on 14 countries[4] - The VIX index surged by 36.5% in a single week, indicating increased market volatility and fear[10] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell by 2.51%, reflecting a dual impact from escalating trade tensions and downward adjustments in growth expectations[4] Bond Market Insights - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 1.14%, driven by deteriorating non-farm employment data, which increased the likelihood of a rate cut in September[10] - The 30-year Treasury futures increased by 0.78%, supported by expectations of liquidity easing and policy backing[4] - The current credit spread for 5-year AAA short-term notes is at a historical low of 0.28%, indicating a favorable credit environment[70] Gold and Currency Trends - COMEX gold prices rose by 2.41%, surpassing $3,370 per ounce, as the dollar's strength pressure diminished amid rising rate cut expectations[4] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 1.04%, with non-U.S. currencies under pressure, particularly the euro which fell by 1.33% against the dollar[10] Asset Allocation Recommendations - For bonds, it is advised to focus on medium to short-duration high-grade credit bonds while avoiding long-duration interest rate bonds[5] - In equities, the recommendation is to explore opportunities in the U.S. stock market due to its relative economic resilience and a strong dollar[5] - Gold remains a strong hedge against inflation and policy uncertainty, driven by geopolitical conflicts and slowing growth[5] Risk Factors - Key risks include potential policy adjustments, market volatility, geopolitical shocks, and liquidity transmission risks[6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent surge in gold prices driven by macroeconomic factors, including disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data and renewed trade tensions, which have shifted market sentiment towards safe-haven assets like gold [1][3][4]. Group 2 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July showed an increase of only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 180,000, leading to heightened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [3]. - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that investors anticipate the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates in September, with two potential 25 basis point cuts by the end of the year, which typically benefits gold as a non-yielding asset [3]. - Recent U.S. trade policy changes, including new tariffs on exports to Canada, India, and Brazil, have further fueled risk aversion among investors, prompting a shift towards defensive assets like gold [4]. - Other precious metals also experienced gains, with silver rising 0.4% to $36.88 per ounce, platinum up 1.2% to $1,304.91, and palladium increasing 1.4% to $1,208.05, indicating a broader recovery in the precious metals market [4]. - Despite rising rate cut expectations, the Federal Reserve has not provided clear guidance on future policy, with Chairman Powell stating that no decisions have been made regarding the September meeting, emphasizing that economic data will remain a key factor in policy adjustments [4][5].

ETF Industry News Summary Core Viewpoint - The ETF market is experiencing significant movements, particularly in the gold sector, driven by increased risk aversion and changing market expectations regarding U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate policies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major indices in the A-share market rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.66% to close at 3583.31 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.46% to 11041.56 points, and the ChiNext Index rising by 0.5% to 2334.32 points [3]. - Gold-related ETFs saw substantial gains, with the Gold Stock ETF (517400.SH) rising by 5.04%, the Gold ETF (159562.SZ) increasing by 4.49%, and the Gold Stock ETF Fund (159315.SZ) up by 4.34% [1][10]. Group 2: ETF Redemption Trends - In July, stock-type ETFs experienced a significant net redemption of 248.33 million units, a sharp increase from the 83.71 million units redeemed in June, marking a shift from net subscriptions to net redemptions for the year [2]. - The top three stock-type ETFs with the highest net redemptions in July included the E Fund CSI 300 Healthcare ETF, which saw a redemption of over 50 million units, and the Guotai CSI 500 ETF, which was redeemed by over 12.64 billion units year-to-date [2]. Group 3: ETF Category Performance - Among various ETF categories, commodity ETFs performed the best with an average increase of 1.06%, while cross-border ETFs had the poorest performance with an average decline of 0.09% [8]. - The top-performing ETFs in the stock category included the Gold Stock ETF (517400.SH), Gold ETF (159562.SZ), and Gold Stock ETF Fund (159315.SZ), with respective returns of 5.04%, 4.49%, and 4.34% [10]. Group 4: Trading Volume - The top three stock-type ETFs by trading volume were the A500 ETF Fund (512050.SH) with a trading volume of 3.986 billion yuan, A500 ETF Southern (159352.SZ) at 3.830 billion yuan, and A500 ETF Huatai-PB (563360.SH) at 3.803 billion yuan [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have rebounded due to disappointing U.S. non-farm employment data, leading to a decline in the dollar and increased market risk aversion [1] - On August 4, the Shanghai gold spot price was quoted at 777.17 yuan per gram, which is a discount of 4.25 yuan per gram compared to the futures price of 781.42 yuan per gram [1] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for July showed an increase of only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 104,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [1] Group 2 - The market's focus is shifting towards U.S. economic growth expectations and labor market demand, despite a second-quarter GDP growth of 3% exceeding the expected 2.5% [2] - Personal consumption expenditure growth of 1.4% in the second quarter was slightly below expectations, indicating ongoing inflation risks [2] - The PCE index showed a year-on-year increase in June, suggesting a rebound in inflation [2] Group 3 - Haitong Futures suggests that the U.S. economy is facing stagflation concerns due to tariff impacts, limiting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy options [3] - If market risk aversion continues, gold prices are expected to rise, potentially leading silver back into an upward trend [3] - The forecast for COMEX gold prices is between $3,200 and $3,500, with a strategy to buy gold and silver on dips [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Nikkei 225 index experienced a significant drop of over 900 points, indicating heightened market volatility and a shift towards risk aversion due to disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data, which suggests a weakening economic growth momentum [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The Nikkei 225 index fell below the 40,000 mark, with approximately 90% of stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange declining, reflecting a broad sell-off in the market [1] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data and the announcement of a Federal Reserve board member's resignation contributed to a noticeable appreciation of the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Outlook - Market consensus indicates that a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is almost certain, with attention now shifting to the pace of potential cuts, specifically whether it will be a 25 or 50 basis point reduction, and whether further cuts will occur in October [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Silver: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] 2. Core Views - Overnight, the annual rate of the US core PCE in June rebounded to 2.8%, slightly higher than expected, and the monthly rate of 0.3% met expectations. The weekly initial jobless claims remained at a low level of 218,000. With recent geopolitical risks stable, tariff negotiations becoming clearer, and the risk of economic recession decreasing, the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment suppresses the performance of precious metals, and the volatile adjustment may continue. Fed Chair Powell reiterated that rate cuts will depend on data, and attention is focused on the US non - farm payrolls guidance tonight [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Tariff News - US President Trump signed an executive order on Thursday night to impose tariffs ranging from 15% to 41% on goods exported to the US from 67 trading partners, raising the tariff level to the highest in more than a century. The new tariffs will take effect on August 7 instead of August 1, providing a window for countries to negotiate for lower tariffs. The White House hopes to reach more agreements with countries before August 7 [2] - The US Treasury Secretary is frustrated with India. The tariff rate for Malaysian goods will be announced soon. India hopes to sign free - trade agreements with several countries. The US - Mexico tariff agreement will be extended by 90 days, and Mexico will continue to pay 25% fentanyl tariffs, 25% auto tariffs, and 50% steel, aluminum, and copper tariffs. Trump excluded 45% of Brazil's exports to the US from the 50% tariff [2] Gold Demand Report - In the second quarter of 2025, the total global gold demand (including over - the - counter transactions) reached 1,249 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. In value terms, the total global gold demand soared by 45% year - on - year to a new record of $132 billion. Gold ETF investment was the key driver, with an inflow of 170 tons in Q2, compared with a small outflow in Q2 2024. The total global gold ETF demand in the first half of the year reached 397 tons, the highest since 2020 [2] - The total investment in gold bars and coins in Q2 also increased by 11% year - on - year to 307 tons. Chinese investors led the world, with a 44% year - on - year surge in demand for gold bars and coins to 115 tons. Indian investors continued to increase their holdings, with a demand of 46 tons in Q2. The Western market showed a differentiated trend: the net investment demand in Europe more than doubled to 28 tons in Q2, while the demand for gold bars and coins in the US halved to 9 tons [2] - Global central banks continued to buy gold, but the pace slowed down. They added 166 tons in Q2 2025. Despite the slowdown in the purchase growth rate, global central bank gold purchases remained at a significantly high level. 95% of surveyed central banks expect global central bank gold reserves to further increase in the next 12 months [2] - Gold jewelry demand continued to shrink, with consumption volume decreasing by 14% year - on - year in Q2, approaching the low level during the 2020 pandemic. The demand for gold jewelry in China and India decreased by 20% and 17% year - on - year respectively. However, in value terms, global gold jewelry consumption still rose to $3.6 billion in Q2 [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. President announced the dismissal of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) following the release of weak July non-farm employment data, which has raised concerns in the market [1] - The BLS revised employment data for May and June significantly, with May's non-farm employment initially reported as an increase of 144,000 jobs but revised down to only 19,000, a reduction of 125,000 jobs [5] - The market reacted to the dismissal and data revisions with increased risk aversion, leading to a surge in gold prices, which rose by over $70 [5] Group 2 - Trump's strong reaction to the data revisions included claims that the employment data was manipulated and that the BLS's revisions were a complete fraud [3] - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler, who opposed short-term rate cuts, has created a vacancy that Trump could fill, potentially leading to a more dovish Fed [6] - The overall international situation is marked by rising tensions, including military deployments and the potential for global conflict, contributing to heightened market uncertainty and risk aversion [8]

8月4日，A股走势分化，军工、银行、有色等板块走强。其中，有色50ETF（159652）震荡上行，截至10:29，涨1.05%。资金跑步进场，有色50ETF （159652）盘中再获资金净申购！ | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 申万一级行业 | 涨跌幅 | 历?交警负 | 估自权重 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 601899 | 紫金矿业 | 植物理研 | 3.12% | 18.8717. | 14.54% | | 2 | 600111 | 北方稀土 | 有色金属 | 0.08% | 28.34 Z | 6.79% | | 3 | 603993 | 洛阳領ル | 有色金属 | 0.33% | 6.69 Z | 4.66% | | 4 | 603799 | 华友钻 V | 有色会居 | -0.88% | 6.47 亿 | 4.46% | | ਦ | 601600 | 中国铝业 | 有色全居 | -0.41% | 2.80 Z | 4.32% | | 6 | 600547 | 山东黄金 | 有色全居 | 4.41% | 14.13 Z ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年8月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：非农就业数据远不如预期，降息预期迅速升温，金价大幅回升；美国三 大股指全线收跌，欧洲主要股指收盘全线下跌；美债收益率收盘集体下跌，10年期 跌14.62个基点报4.220%；美元指数跌1.38%报98.68，离岸人民币对美元升值报 7.1929；COMEX黄金期货涨2.01%报3416美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货770.72，现货766.88，基差-3.84，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单35745千克，增加102千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日均线下方；偏空 ...

Group 1 - Non-farm payroll numbers fell short of expectations, leading to a significant decline in US stocks last Friday [1] - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower again, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.31%, the National Index down 0.35%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.66% [1] - Major technology stocks showed mixed performance, with Kuaishou and Alibaba dropping over 1%, while Tencent and NetEase saw slight gains [1] Group 2 - Pharmaceutical stocks in the US experienced a sharp decline following Trump's call to lower drug prices, impacting Hong Kong's biotech sector, where companies like WuXi AppTec and Innovent Biologics saw declines [1] - Automotive stocks continued to decline, with BYD shares dropping nearly 3% [1] - Defensive sentiment increased, leading to a collective rise in gold stocks, with Lingbao Gold and Zhaojin Mining both rising over 3% [1]