中美爆发关税战之后，中方对稀土出口实施了严格管制，除了美国，韩国等国也受到了影响。就在韩国大选前夕，韩国企业提出的稀土出口申请，获得了中 方的批准。 韩国企业提出的稀土出口申请获得批准 自中方宣布出口管制之后，韩国政府就一直与中方保持沟通，希望中方加快对韩稀土出口许可的审批进度。 根据韩联社5月25日报道，韩国企业的申请终于得到了批准，中国商务部这个月批准向多数韩企出口稀土产品，韩国对稀土供应链不畅的担忧暂时被消除。 韩联社对相关消息的报道截图 自4月7日开始，中国对钐、钆、铽、镝、镥、钪和钇等7种稀土实施出口管制，这些稀土金属元素用于智能手机和电动汽车等高新技术领域，也是绿色工业 原料。 韩国在稀土产品供应方面高度依赖中国，一份报告显示，2024年，韩国在含稀土化工产品方面，对中国的依赖度是29.1%，稀土类化合物是61.1%，稀土金 属是79.8%。 这一次韩国总统选举，一共有4位候选人，其中就包括共同民主党党首李在明、国民力量党候选人金文洙，这两人是支持率最高的候选人，尤其是李在明处 于绝对领先地位。 韩国一共有四位总统候选人 在中韩关系方面，李在明与国民力量党完全不同，他主张在处理对华关系的时候更加务 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2880 - 2940. The domestic soybean meal may show a short - term pattern of weakening oscillation due to factors such as the uncertainty of the China - US tariff war, the weather in US soybean - producing areas, and the increase in the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans [9]. - The soybean A2507 is expected to oscillate within the range of 4160 - 4260. The domestic soybean is affected by the subsequent China - US tariff negotiation and the expected increase in the arrival of imported soybeans, and may show a short - term oscillation pattern [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The China - US tariff negotiation reached a short - term agreement, which is beneficial to US soybeans. However, the good weather for US soybean planting recently led to a short - term decline after the US soybean market rose. It is expected to oscillate above the thousand - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the subsequent China - US tariff war [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory increased from a low level, but the soybean meal inventory remained low. The soybeans are affected by the implementation of the China - US tariff war and have returned to an oscillation pattern, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits led to a low expectation of pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal decreased after May Day, but the tight supply supported the post - holiday price expectation. With the weakening pressure of the China - US tariff war, the soybean meal entered a short - term pattern of weakening oscillation [13]. - The low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal supported the short - term price expectation. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in US soybean - producing areas and the uncertainty of the China - US tariff war. The soybean meal will maintain an oscillation pattern in the short term, waiting for the clarification of South American soybean production and further guidance on the subsequent China - US tariff war [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish for Soybean Meal - Slow clearance of imported soybeans at customs [14]. - Low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal [14]. - Uncertainty in the weather of US soybean - producing areas [14]. Bearish for Soybean Meal - The total arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May [14]. - The harvest of Brazilian soybeans is over, and the expectation of a bumper harvest in South American soybeans continues [14]. Bullish for Soybeans - The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market [15]. - The expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports the domestic soybean price expectation [15]. Bearish for Soybeans - The expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazilian soybeans continues, and China has increased its procurement of Brazilian soybeans [15]. - The expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of soybeans [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2860, with a basis of - 74, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil - mill soybean meal is 12.17 tons, a 20.26% increase from last week and an 80.47% decrease compared to the same period last year [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of - 25, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil - mill soybeans is 586.83 tons, a 9.71% increase from last week and a 33.95% increase compared to the same period last year [11]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The number of long positions of the main contract increased, but the funds flowed out [9]. - **Soybeans**: The number of short positions of the main contract increased, and the funds flowed in [11].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-05-21 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2509：2860至2920区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，新季美国大豆种植天气有利和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期千点关 口上方震荡等待中美关税战后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕探底回 升，5月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格下跌，但油厂豆粕库存处于低位支撑期货盘面底部， 进口巴西大豆到港增多和中美关税战后续交互影响，整体维持震荡偏弱格局。中性 2.基差：现货2850（华东），基差-49，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存12.17万吨，上周10.12万吨，环比增加20.26%，去年 ...

中美两国就关税问题谈拢后，一位美国客人抵达北京，为中美关系带来新"变化"。对于他的到来，中方送出两句话。那么，中美就关税问题达成了哪些成 果？此时抵近的贵客又是谁？ 5月12日，中美两国发布《日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，为关税战挂上了"休战牌"。而伴随着两国互降115%关税，几近"脱钩断链"的中美市场有了破冰迹 象，接下来，中美代表要谈的就是如何处理暂缓征收的24%关税，以及其他经贸分歧。 有分析认为，美国以芬太尼为借口对中国无理加征的两轮关税，将成为下阶段关税谈判的一大重点。如果美方还想解决高关税给美国市场造成的"反噬"，以 及美国经济面临的滞涨困境，那么应该做的就是正视中方合理诉求，停止以施压胁迫等方式逼迫中国让步。 而在中美就经贸问题发布联合声明后，5月14日，一位美国客人抵达北京，他就是新任美国驻华大使庞德伟。据报道，现年75岁的庞德伟不仅是特朗普的忠 实支持者，也是一位有着40年国际商业经验的资深商人，对亚洲市场有着相当深刻的理解。在他看来，中美关系是"21世纪最具重大影响的外交挑战"，美国 对华政策应该是"细致的、不分党派的、有战略性的"，并且必须确保美国的国家和经济安全不受损害。 外交部发言人林剑 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-05-20 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2509：2840至2900区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆窄幅震荡，新季美国大豆种植天气有利和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期千点关 口上方震荡等待中美关税战后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回 落，5月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格下跌，但油厂豆粕库存处于低位支撑期货盘面底部， 进口巴西大豆到港增多和中美关税战后续交互影响，整体维持震荡偏弱格局。中性 2.基差：现货2860（华东），基差-26，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存12.17万吨，上周10.12万吨，环比增加20.26%，去年 ...

记者 辛圆 王青表示，下调政策利率并引导LPR下行，将带动企业和居民贷款利率更大幅度下调，降低实体经济融资成本。这是现阶段扩投资、促消费的一个重要发力 点，也有助于缓解计入物价因素后，当前企业和居民实际贷款利率偏高现象，激发企业和居民内生融资需求。 实际上，市场对本次LPR调整已有预期。 5月7日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在国新办发布会上宣布降低利率，包括下调政策利率0.1个百分点、降低所有结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点和降低 个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点。其中，下调政策利率0.1个百分点即公开市场7天期逆回购操作利率从1.5%调降至1.4%，预计将带动贷款市场报价利 率（LPR）同步下行约0.1个百分点。同时，将通过利率自律机制引导商业银行相应下调存款利率。 上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进对智通财经分析称，此次LPR降息10个基点，充分说明一揽子金融支持政策下货币政策和信贷政策进一步宽松，亦进一 步降低了中长期资金的借贷成本。 他表示，降息政策对于房贷成本有进一步下调的积极作用，亦有助于进一步促进住房消费需求的释放。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对戒面新闻表示，LPR报价下调，根本原因是4月 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced weak fluctuations in the morning but showed slight improvement in the afternoon, closing with minor gains. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.12 points to 3367.58 points, while the total trading volume in the A-share market was 1.1189 trillion yuan, slightly down from 1.1241 trillion yuan on the previous Friday [1] Sector Performance - The shipping, chemical fiber, paper, real estate, and environmental protection sectors showed relatively strong performance, while the liquor, mineral products, engineering machinery, insurance, and banking sectors performed weaker [1] Regulatory Impact - Liquor stocks opened lower following the release of revised regulations that prohibit high-end dishes, cigarettes, and alcohol at official work meals, which may impact the liquor industry negatively [1] Economic Indicators - China's industrial added value for April grew by 6.1% year-on-year, exceeding the expected growth of 5.5%. Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1%, and urban fixed asset investment rose by 4.0% in the first four months of the year [2] Market Sentiment - Despite the positive economic indicators, the market sentiment remains cautious due to the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, which have reduced expectations for immediate stimulus policies. This has contributed to the recent weaker performance of A-shares [2] Interest Rate Outlook - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged in May, with potential adjustments anticipated in the following months as the trade tensions ease and economic data stabilizes [2] Investment Strategy - A-shares are likely to continue in a fluctuating pattern in the short term, with investors adopting a conservative and watchful approach until further clarity on U.S.-China negotiations is achieved [2]

Group 1: Trade Agreement Insights - The US-China trade negotiations have led to a significant reduction in tariffs, with the US's maximum tariff on China dropping from 145% to 30%[9] - Both countries have agreed to suspend the implementation of 24% counter-tariffs for 90 days, marking a shift from "almost embargo" to "tradeable" levels[11] - The reduction in tariffs is expected to alleviate inflation concerns in the US and improve market sentiment, potentially boosting US stock performance[10] Group 2: Market Implications - The easing of tariffs is likely to enhance risk appetite in the market, with expectations for improved economic forecasts in Q2 2025[11] - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have returned to levels prior to the "equivalent tariffs," suggesting a focus on fundamental market conditions moving forward[11] - The report suggests a structural market strategy, with a focus on dividend and technology sectors potentially providing excess returns[18] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The negative impacts of tariffs on Chinese exports may be delayed until Q3 2025, with Q2 expected to shift from a drag to a boost for exports[11] - The necessity for preemptive domestic fiscal policies has decreased due to improved economic expectations[11] - The ongoing trade conflict is anticipated to enter a prolonged "negotiation phase," indicating that optimism should be tempered[18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate between 2860 and 2920. The overall pattern may remain weakly oscillating due to factors such as increased imports of soybeans in May and potential resumption of US soybean imports, while the low inventory of soybean meal at oil mills supports the bottom of the futures market [9]. - The soybean A2507 is expected to oscillate between 4120 and 4220. It is affected by factors such as the interaction between the influence of US soybeans and the increase in imported soybeans, and the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans [11]. - The short - term trend of the soybean and soybean meal markets is mainly oscillatory, influenced by factors such as the outcome of the China - US tariff war, the weather in US soybean - producing areas, and the harvest situation in South America [9][11][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - No relevant information provided 2. Recent News - The China - US tariff negotiation reached a short - term agreement, which is beneficial to US soybeans. However, due to the good recent weather for US soybean planting, the US market first rose and then fell, and is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark [13]. - The volume of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May. After the May Day holiday, the domestic soybean inventory rebounded from a low level, but the soybean meal inventory remained low. The soybean and soybean meal markets returned to an oscillatory state, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal weakened after the May Day holiday, but the tight supply supported the post - holiday price expectations. With the reduced pressure of the China - US tariff war, the soybean meal entered a weakly oscillatory pattern in the short term [13]. - The low inventory of soybean meal at domestic oil mills supported the short - term price expectations. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in US soybean - producing areas and the uncertainty of the China - US tariff war. The soybean meal will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term, waiting for the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of soybean meal at domestic oil mills, and variable weather in US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: the total volume of imported soybeans in China rebounded to a high in May, and the expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans continued [14]. Soybean - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in demand for domestic soybeans supports the price expectations [15]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectations [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: The soybean meal futures are weakly oscillating, and the spot price is relatively weak after the May Day holiday, with the premium continuing to narrow. The spot price of soybean meal in East China on May 16 was 2920, with a basis of 21, showing a premium over the futures [9][23]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybeans at oil mills continued to rise, with 534.91 million tons as of a certain time, a 12.7% increase from the previous week and a 27.79% increase year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory at oil mills was 10.12 million tons, a 23.26% increase from the previous week and an 81.9% decrease year - on - year [9][11]. - **Production and Consumption**: The soybean crushing volume at oil mills continued to rise, but the soybean meal output in April decreased year - on - year. The downstream procurement decreased after the holiday, but the提货 volume remained good [25][27]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal M2509, the main long positions decreased, and the funds flowed out [9]. - For soybean A2507, the main short positions increased, and the funds flowed out [11].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 多空交织，豆粕横盘震荡 （豆粕周报5.12-5.16） 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 基本面影响因素概览 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 | 项目 | 概况 | 驱动 | 下周预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天气 | 美国大豆产区天气短期良 | 偏空 | 美国大豆产区天气短期正 | | | 好 | | 常。中性或偏空 | | 进口成本 | 美豆冲高回落，中美关税 | 偏多 | 进口成本预计震荡偏强，中 | | | 短期妥协 | | 性或偏多 | | 油厂压榨 | 豆粕需求短期偏淡，油厂 | 偏空 | 需求短期偏淡，油厂开机预 | | | 压榨量低位回升 | | 计维持继续回升， ...