Summary of the Pig Farming Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The pig farming industry is currently experiencing a price bottoming phase, with pig prices reaching a new low not seen in about a year and a half. This is primarily due to passive capacity reduction, ongoing production cuts driven by policy, and tightening environmental regulations [2][6]. Key Price Trends - In July 2025, the average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork were 35.7 CNY/kg, 34.91 CNY/kg, and 25.37 CNY/kg, reflecting year-on-year declines of 18.65%, 20.05%, and 12.8% respectively. Month-on-month, piglet prices decreased by 4.09%, while live pig and pork prices saw slight increases of 1.72% and 0.31% [2][3]. - By early August 2025, the average selling price of live pigs had dropped to 13.82 CNY/kg, continuing a downward trend [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side has significantly influenced recent price movements. In early July, large-scale farms reduced output to support prices, but increased supply from smallholders later in the month exerted downward pressure on prices. Demand was weak due to seasonal factors, with expectations for improvement in late August or early September as schools reopen [4][6]. Environmental Regulations Impact - Stricter environmental policies are placing considerable pressure on small to medium-sized farms. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has intensified inspections, particularly in southern water network regions, which is expected to accelerate the upgrade or exit of outdated production capacity, promoting high-quality development in the pig farming industry [5][6]. Profitability Analysis - As of August 8, 2025, self-breeding and self-raising pigs yielded an average profit of 45.13 CNY per head, while purchased piglets continued to incur losses of 134.14 CNY per head, indicating that self-breeding remains slightly profitable while external purchases are increasingly unprofitable [3][7]. Major Companies Performance - In July 2025, major pig farming companies reported the following slaughter volumes: Muyuan (7.5 million heads, down 10.4%), Wens (3.1 million heads, up 5.24%), New Hope (1.3 million heads, up 2.07%), and Zhengbang (700,000 heads, down 2.16%). Collectively, 17 listed companies slaughtered 15.81 million heads, a 5.3% decrease month-on-month [3][9]. - The average slaughter weights for July were: Muyuan (108.57 kg), Wens (105.69 kg), and New Hope (95.81 kg), with most companies showing a decrease in average weight, indicating a continued trend towards lighter slaughter weights [3][11]. Cost Structure and Competitive Advantage - Muyuan has a significant cost advantage, with its total cost in July 2025 reported at 11.9 CNY/kg. This positions leading companies favorably to achieve good returns this year and maintain profitability into 2026 [3][12]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to continue facing a supply surplus in the short term, leading to a price bottoming phase. However, in the medium to long term, this situation may facilitate the exit of outdated production capacity and stabilize the market. Regulatory policies are likely to remain strict, with expectations for improved prices and profitability in the second half of the year and into 2026 as pressures ease [6][13][14]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on leading companies with clear cost advantages and high performance reliability, such as Muyuan, Wens, and Shennong Technology. The sector is currently undervalued, presenting safety and upside potential. Additionally, close attention should be paid to trade tensions and changes in import/export policies to mitigate risks associated with raw material cost fluctuations [8].

Report Overview - Report Title: Zhengxin Futures Egg Weekly Report 2025 - 8 - 18 [2] - Research Group: Zhengxin Futures Research Institute - Agricultural Products Research Group [2] Industry Investment Rating - Supply: Bearish [3] - Demand: Neutral [3] - Profit: Neutral [3] - Price and Volume: Neutral [3] - Strategy: Bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of culled chickens from sample breeding enterprises continued to decline, the culling age fluctuated slightly, the price difference between large and small eggs oscillated at a high level, and the price of chicks continued to drop [3] - The high price difference between large and small eggs and the relatively strong price of culled chickens indicate more new additions and fewer culls, which may suppress the price elasticity in the traditional consumption peak season [3] - This year, the capacity reduction is insufficient, the Mid - Autumn Festival stocking is premature, and the egg - laying rate decline due to high temperature is getting smaller, so the rebound momentum in the peak season is limited [3] - This week, the sales volume in the main sales areas and the shipping volume in the main production areas decreased slightly, and the inventory in the circulation and production links also decreased slightly [3] - Traders are afraid of price drops, purchase cautiously, and the overall sales in the production areas are a bit slow [3] - The breeding profit has rebounded slightly and is near the break - even point, and the egg - feed ratio is at the lowest level in the same period of the past 4 years [3] - The egg futures contracts in the delivery month are slightly at a discount, while the other contracts are slightly at a premium [3] - The price difference between the near and far - term egg futures has dropped significantly and is at a moderately high level [3] - Due to the change of the main contract of egg futures, the net short position of institutions in September decreased, while that in October increased [3] - Under the background of high inventory, the near - term supply pressure is large, and the far - term situation will gradually improve with the strengthening of capacity reduction expectations [3] - Before the capacity is cleared due to breeding losses, the pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength of egg futures is expected to continue, and it is recommended to pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of egg 9 - 1 [3] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - Sub - sections include spot price (comparison between main production area price and main sales area price), egg basis (basis of each egg futures contract), egg price difference (price difference of each egg futures contract), and futures institutional net position (long - to - short ratio of institutional positions in September and October egg futures contracts) [4][7][10][13] Supply Analysis - Covers aspects such as egg - laying hen inventory and its structure, culling situation (culled chicken price and average culling age), replenishment situation (price of commercial egg - laying chicks and hatching egg utilization rate), and size - code situation (prices of large and small eggs and seasonal chart of price difference) [16][18][20][23] Demand Analysis - Includes发货量&销量 (sales volume in main sales areas and shipping volume in main production areas), inventory (production - link inventory and circulation - link inventory), and substitutes (seasonal charts of egg - to - pork price ratio and egg - to - vegetable price ratio) [26][28][31] Profit Analysis - Comprises breeding profit (current profit vs. expected profit and comprehensive egg - laying hen breeding profit) and egg - feed ratio (egg - feed ratio and its break - even point, and seasonal chart of egg - feed ratio) [34][37]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for agricultural products showed mixed results, with egg futures experiencing a decline, closing at 3170.00 CNY per 500 kg, down 2.19% from the previous session [1] - High inventory levels of laying hens and increased supply pressure from new production are contributing to the weak performance of the egg market, alongside soft terminal demand and competition from substitutes due to high temperatures [1] - Institutions expect a potential rebound in egg prices due to upcoming school stocking and mid-autumn festival purchases, although the overall trend remains weak due to high production capacity and low spot prices [1] Group 2 - The futures market is under pressure from high inventory levels, leading to a near-term weak outlook while the long-term may improve as production capacity decreases [2] - Current market sentiment is bearish, influenced by weak demand in the spot market, but there is potential for a recovery as seasonal demand may strengthen in the future [2] - Recommendations suggest waiting for stabilization and considering a bullish approach at lower price levels, as the downside risk appears limited [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Insights - In July, pig prices peaked and then declined, with the average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork at 35.73 CNY/kg, 14.91 CNY/kg, and 25.37 CNY/kg respectively, showing month-on-month changes of -4.09%, +1.72%, and +0.31% [1][16] - The supply side saw a significant impact from the supply rhythm, with a notable increase in the number of pigs being sold by smallholders, leading to supply pressure [19] - The demand side faced challenges due to weak consumption during the summer heat, resulting in sluggish sales for slaughterhouses [19] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported a slight increase in the number of breeding sows, indicating a potential stabilization in supply [19][24] - Policy measures aimed at reducing production capacity and controlling weight have begun to show effects, with expectations for a gradual reduction in industry capacity [24][25] Summary by Sections Industry Supply and Demand - July pig prices were influenced by supply dynamics, with a peak followed by a decline due to increased selling by smallholders and controlled sales by larger farms [19] - The average price of live pigs fell to 13.82 CNY/kg by August 11 [1][16] Production Capacity Trends - The number of breeding sows was reported at 40.43 million, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.02% [19][24] - Data from various sources indicated a halt in growth for breeding sows for the first time since February [19][24] Policy and Regulatory Environment - Recent policies have focused on "reducing production capacity, controlling weight, and regulating secondary fattening," which are expected to stabilize the market in the long term [24][25] - Stricter environmental regulations are anticipated to pressure smaller farms, leading to the elimination of outdated production capacity [25] Market Performance of Listed Companies - In July, the average sales prices for major companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and New Hope Liuhe showed slight increases, with prices at 14.30 CNY/kg, 14.58 CNY/kg, and 14.44 CNY/kg respectively [9][32] - The total sales volume for listed companies decreased by 5.30% month-on-month, with notable declines in companies like Muyuan Foods [33][36] Profitability and Cost Analysis - The cost of production is a critical factor, with Muyuan Foods reporting a cost of 11.90 CNY/kg in July, indicating a competitive advantage over peers [41][42] - The profitability of listed companies is expected to remain strong, with significant year-on-year growth in net profits anticipated for the first half of 2025 [44][47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [46][47]. Core Insights - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, with an increase of 1.32% from August 1 to August 14, 2025, lagging behind the index by approximately 1.08 percentage points [10][11]. - Most sub-sectors recorded positive returns, with only the fishery sector showing a negative return of -0.64%. The agricultural product processing, feed, planting, animal health, and breeding sectors saw increases of 6.53%, 1.88%, 0.97%, 0.93%, and 0.38%, respectively [11][12]. - Approximately 57% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns during the same period [12]. Industry Data Summary - **Pig Farming**: - The average price of external three yuan pigs fell from 14.21 CNY/kg to 13.82 CNY/kg between August 1 and August 14, 2025. - The cost of corn was 2394.12 CNY/ton, showing a recent decline, while soybean meal was priced at 3126 CNY/ton, which increased recently [21][23]. - Profit for self-bred pigs was 28.85 CNY/head, while the profit for purchased piglets was -157.05 CNY/head, both showing a decline compared to the previous week [26]. - **Poultry Farming**: - The average price of broiler chicks was 3.58 CNY/chick, which continued to rise, while the average price for layer chicks was 3.6 CNY/chick, showing a slight decline [28]. - The average price of white feather broilers was 7.2 CNY/kg, which increased, and the profit for white feather broiler farming was 1.03 CNY/chick, also showing an upward trend [32]. - **Aquaculture**: - The average wholesale price for crucian carp was 22.38 CNY/kg, showing a slight decline, while the average price for carp was 15.69 CNY/kg, which increased [34]. Company Insights - The report highlights several companies to watch, including: - Muyuan Foods (002714), noted for its cost, scale, and integration advantages in pig farming [48]. - Haida Group (002311), recognized as a leading feed company with expected market share growth [48]. - Shennong Development (002299), a leader in the white feather broiler industry with advantages in breeding and food business expansion [48]. - Reap Bio (300119), a leader in the animal health industry with a growing product matrix for pet health [48]. - Zhongchong Co. (002891), a top player in the pet food sector with strong domestic growth and recovering export business [48].

Core Viewpoint - A production halt by CATL has triggered a significant surge in the lithium carbonate market, with futures prices reaching a three-month high [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On August 11, lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit, rising by 8% to 81,000 yuan per ton [3]. - The halt in production at CATL's Yichun project is interpreted as the first substantial reduction signal in the lithium salt industry, which has been experiencing insufficient capacity reduction [3][4]. - The halt coincides with a traditional peak season for inventory demand, leading to a sharp rebound in lithium carbonate futures prices [3]. Group 2: Stock Market Impact - The surge in lithium carbonate futures has led to a collective rise in A-share lithium mining stocks, with companies like Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium hitting their daily limits [5][6]. - Hong Kong and overseas lithium mining stocks also saw significant gains, with Ganfeng Lithium rising over 20% [7]. Group 3: Supply Chain Concerns - The Yichun project is crucial in the lithium supply chain, and a production halt exceeding two weeks could disrupt downstream inventory plans [7]. - There are concerns about potential chain reactions, as seven other lithium mica mines are also facing certificate renewals, which could impact 24% of domestic lithium production [10]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - Despite the production halts, the overall lithium carbonate output remains high, and the impact of the stoppages is considered manageable [11]. - New lithium extraction capacities from salt lakes are expected to come online, which may offset some supply disruptions [11].

除了宁德时代枧下窝矿区，还有7座锂云母矿山面临集体"换证"。 一则停产消息引爆了碳酸锂市场。 8月11日，截至收盘，碳酸锂期货全合约涨停。主力合约开盘即封涨停板，涨幅达8%，现报8.1万元/ 吨，创近三个月以来新高。 消息面上，宁德时代（300750.SZ）8月11日在互动平台表示，公司在宜春项目采矿许可证8月9日到期后 已暂停了开采作业，正按相关规定尽快办理采矿证延续申请，待获得批复后将尽早恢复生产，该事项对 公司整体经营影响不大。 沪上一位券商分析师对记者分析称，相比光伏、钢铁等行业减产"自救"，锂盐行业一直处于产能去化程 度不足的状态。此次停产事件，市场更愿意将其解读为"首个实质性减产信号"。叠加当前是传统旺季备 货需求，短期情绪催化下碳酸锂期货价格大幅反弹。 期股联动，锂矿板块集体爆发 实际上，受到"反内卷"政策预期、规范矿权审核等因素影响，7月下旬以来，碳酸锂期货由6.94万元/吨 涨至7.95万元/吨附近，此后伴随着该品种进入交易所调控周期、持仓资金的流入，又回落至6.7万元/ 吨。如今冲上8万元/吨，两个交易日涨幅超15%。 "情绪比基本面跑得快。"某头部期货公司交易员称，宁德时代的宜春项目在碳 ...

Investment Rating - The overall industry rating is "Positive" for the agriculture sector, indicating expected returns above the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months [6][51]. Core Views 1. **Livestock Industry Chain** - The swine market is experiencing rising epidemic risks and policy support, which is expected to enhance the motivation for capacity reduction. The average price of live pigs is currently 13.71 CNY/kg, down 0.62 CNY from last week, while the average price for 15 kg piglets is 31.24 CNY/kg, down 1.48 CNY [5][19]. - The operating rate of large-scale slaughterhouses has increased to 31.9%, up 0.36 percentage points from last week and 7.26 percentage points year-on-year. The total output of pigs from 16 listed companies reached 100.75 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 16.9% [5][19]. - The number of breeding sows has decreased to 40.43 million heads, down 370,000 from the peak last year. The average profit per head for self-bred pigs is 45 CNY, an increase of 2 CNY from last week [6][20]. 2. **Poultry Industry** - Chicken prices are experiencing fluctuations, with the average price for broiler chickens at 3.54 CNY/lb, up 0.13 CNY from last week. The average price for white feather chickens is 13.9 CNY/kg, up 0.2 CNY [21][23]. - The industry is at a historically high capacity level, with limited imports in the first seven months of the year. The profitability per chicken has turned positive at 0.62 CNY [21][23]. - The yellow chicken market is also seeing price declines, with average prices at 9.77 CNY/kg for Lihua yellow chicken, down 0.02 CNY from last month [23][24]. 3. **Seed and Planting Industry** - The seed industry is benefiting from ongoing policy optimization and the promotion of genetically modified organisms (GMOs). The long-term investment value of leading seed companies is highlighted as they are at historical low valuations [10][24]. - Grain prices are experiencing short-term adjustments but are expected to rise in the medium term due to reduced imports and adverse weather conditions. The average purchase price for corn is 2441 CNY/ton, down 4 CNY from last week [12][24]. Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. - Buy [3] - Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. - Buy [3] - Suqian Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. - Buy [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Today's overall spot market is stable. After the price drop in the previous few days, farmers expect to hold prices. According to Yongyi data, the monthly hog slaughter began to increase month - on - month in August, with the fastest month - on - month growth rate in October. The weight is gradually declining but still has room to fall. There was little change in piglet prices compared to last week. The continuous decline in spot prices in July led to some capacity reduction. The downward space for spot prices is limited, but it will still take time for prices to rise. Near - month contracts may follow the weak spot market. Continue to focus on the 9 - 11 reverse spread [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Hog Price Data - On August 7, 2025, the national average hog price was 13.2 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg. Prices in various regions also showed a downward trend, with price drops ranging from 0.09 to 0.21 yuan/kg. For example, the price in Henan was 13.86 yuan/kg, down 0.14 yuan/kg; in Hunan, it was 13.66 yuan/kg, down 0.12 yuan/kg; in Guangdong, it was 15.3 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan/kg [2]. Futures Contract Data - On August 7, 2025, the price of LH2509 was 13,870 yuan, up 60 yuan; LH2511 was 14,100 yuan, up 90 yuan; LH2601 was 14,395 yuan, up 85 yuan. The spread between LH09 - 11 was - 230 yuan, down 30 yuan; the spread between LH11 - 01 was - 295 yuan, up 5 yuan [2]. Hog Slaughter and Weight Data - According to Yongyi data, the monthly hog slaughter began to increase month - on - month in August, with the fastest month - on - month growth rate in October. This week, the average weight of hog slaughter was 127.98 kg, down 0.50 kg from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.39%, and up 2.52 kg from the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 2.01% [2]. Piglet Price Data - Piglet prices have not changed much compared to last week [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "shock". Specific varieties such as steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon all have a mid - term outlook of "shock" [6][8][9][10][11][12][14][15]. 2. Core View of the Report - The demand performance of the black building materials industry is weak, and the prices are in high - level shock. Although the fundamentals of individual varieties change little, there are still certain support factors, and the prices may rebound before the spot pressure appears. The market is mainly dominated by capital behavior, and it is recommended to wait and see to avoid risks. Subsequently, the implementation of policies and terminal demand performance should be mainly concerned [1][6]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Iron Element - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, but after the typhoon disturbance, the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly, and the iron ore port area's total inventory increased, with a limited overall inventory accumulation range [2]. - **Demand**: The profitability rate of steel enterprises has risen to the highest level in the same period in the past three years. Due to routine maintenance of steel mills, the molten iron output decreased slightly, remaining at a high level year - on - year. The possibility of production reduction in the short term due to profit reasons is small. Attention should be paid to whether there are production - restriction policies in the second half of the month [2]. - **Outlook**: With limited bearish driving forces in the fundamentals, the future price is expected to fluctuate [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Supply**: The "276 - working - day" production organization plan of some coal mines in Shanxi has emerged, and the supply - side disturbance continues. The output of some local coal mines is limited due to underground and other factors, and the output of some coal mines will be reduced to a certain extent in the second half of the year under the influence of over - production verification. The supply of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased month - on - month this week. The import of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu port has been maintaining more than a thousand trucks [2]. - **Demand**: After the previous centralized purchasing, downstream users are currently purchasing on demand. There were many pre - sold orders in coal mines before, and the upstream coal mines are still destocking [2]. - **Outlook**: Currently, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent. Subsequently, regulatory policies, coal mine resumption, and Mongolian coal import conditions should be concerned [2]. 3.3 Alloys Manganese Silicon - **Cost**: The price of coke has been continuously increased, and the cost support for manganese silicon has been continuously strengthened. The manganese ore market is more wait - and - see, but traders are still reluctant to sell at low prices, and the port ore price remains firm [3]. - **Supply - demand**: Steel mills have good profit conditions, and the output of finished products remains stable at a high level. The downstream demand for manganese silicon is still resilient. However, in an environment of profit repair, the resumption process of manufacturers continues to advance, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser [3]. - **Outlook**: The contradictions in the current spot fundamentals are limited. In the short term, the price of manganese silicon is expected to fluctuate following the performance of the sector [3]. Ferrosilicon - **Supply**: The output of ferrosilicon is expected to accelerate the recovery. Attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy related to specific production - restriction requirements [15]. - **Demand**: The output of steel products remains stable at a relatively high level, and the downstream steel - making demand is still resilient. In the metal magnesium market, due to tight supply, magnesium plants' price - holding sentiment remains strong, but high - level transactions in the market are relatively cold, and the game between upstream and downstream in the magnesium market continues [15]. - **Outlook**: The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate following the performance of the sector. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space of the price needs to be viewed with caution, and the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs should be concerned [15]. 3.4 Glass - **Supply**: There are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and 1 production line has been cold - repaired. The overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable, and the upstream inventory has decreased slightly [6]. - **Demand**: In the off - season, the demand has declined, the deep - processing orders have decreased month - on - month, and the inventory days of original glass have increased month - on - month, indicating downstream speculative purchases. After the decline of the futures price, the sentiment in the spot market has declined, the middle - stream shipments have increased, and the upstream production and sales have declined significantly [6]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the futures and spot prices are expected to fluctuate widely. In the long run, the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [6]. 3.5 Soda Ash - **Supply**: The over - supply pattern has not changed. The production capacity has not been cleared, and there is still long - term pressure. The output is running at a high level, and the supply pressure still exists. Some manufacturers' production has recovered today, and the output is expected to continue to increase in the future [6]. - **Demand**: The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. There are still ignition production lines that have not produced glass. The expected daily melting volume of float glass is stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has continued to decline, falling below 90,000 tons this week, with the current daily melting volume at 89,800 tons. The demand for heavy soda ash has weakened. The downstream procurement of light soda ash has weakened, and the overall downstream demand is poor, mainly for periodic restocking [6]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, after the rapid decline of the price, it is at a discount to the spot price, and it is expected to fluctuate in the future. In the long run, the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [6]. 3.6 Steel - **Supply**: Some steel mills have resumed production, and there is a transfer of molten iron. The output of rebar has increased, and the output of hot - rolled coils has decreased [8]. - **Demand**: Affected by the weakening of the typhoon, the apparent demand for rebar has rebounded, but the inventory continues to accumulate. In the off - season, the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils has decreased, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The supply of the five major steel products has increased, the demand has decreased, and the inventory has accumulated, showing off - season characteristics [8]. - **Outlook**: The anti - involution sentiment in the steel and coal industries is still high. Currently, the fundamentals of steel have weakened marginally, but the inventory is low, and there are still production - restriction disturbances before the military parade. The short - term futures price still has support. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the steel mills' production - restriction situation and terminal demand performance [8]. 3.7 Scrap Steel - **Supply**: This week, the market sentiment is relatively optimistic, and the willingness to ship is low. The arrival volume of scrap steel has continued to decline [9]. - **Demand**: The profit of electric furnaces is good, and the daily consumption has increased to a high level in the same period. In terms of blast furnaces, the molten iron output has decreased, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process steelmaking has also decreased slightly. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in long - and short - process steelmaking has increased slightly [9]. - **Outlook**: The supply of scrap steel has decreased, and the demand has increased. The fundamentals have strengthened marginally, and the market sentiment is optimistic. The price is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.8 Coke - **Supply**: After the full implementation of the fifth round of price increases, the profits of coking enterprises have been alleviated, and their production starts have improved. The coke output has temporarily stabilized [9]. - **Demand**: Downstream steel mills have good profits and are actively producing. The molten iron output has decreased slightly month - on - month but remains at a high level. Upstream coking enterprises have smooth shipments, and their inventory has been continuously reduced. Mid - stream futures - spot traders have gradually released their goods, and the arrival of goods at downstream steel mills has improved [9]. - **Outlook**: The current supply - demand structure of coke is still tight, and the short - term price still has support. Some coking enterprises still have the intention to increase the price for the sixth round. Subsequently, the possible military parade production - restriction policy should be concerned [9]. 3.9 Coking Coal - **Supply**: The "276 - working - day" production organization plan of some coal mines in Shanxi has emerged, and the supply - side disturbance continues. The output of some local coal mines is limited due to underground and other factors, and the output of some coal mines will be reduced to a certain extent in the second half of the year under the influence of over - production verification. The supply of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased month - on - month this week. The import of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu port has been maintaining more than a thousand trucks [11]. - **Demand**: The coke output has temporarily stabilized, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. After the previous centralized purchasing, downstream users are currently purchasing on demand. There were many pre - sold orders in coal mines before, and the upstream coal mines are still destocking [11]. - **Outlook**: Under the influence of over - production verification of coal mines, the recovery of coking coal supply is expected to be slow. With the poor supply expectation, the market sentiment has warmed up. In the short term, the futures price is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall [11].