Group 1 - The third World SME Conference and the second Scientific Entrepreneur Forum were launched in Beijing, focusing on the theme "Green Resilience and Digital Symbiosis: The Power of SMEs in Restructuring Global Supply Chains" [1] - SMEs account for over two-thirds of global enterprises but face challenges such as financing difficulties and limited access to technology [1] - The former Vice Minister of Finance, Zhu Guangyao, highlighted the complex international situation by 2025, including potential high tariffs, intensified geopolitical conflicts, and disruptions in the international financial order [1] Group 2 - The National People's Congress Standing Committee member, Weng Jieming, emphasized five measures to support SMEs in integrating into the global supply chain restructuring, including detailed fiscal and tax policies, expanding structural loan scales, and enhancing government guarantee systems [2] - The conference discussed the importance of digitalization and green technology, with the UN's Director of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs stating that China's SMEs demonstrate that green and digital development are complementary [2] - The conference aims to promote deep cooperation among global SMEs in supply chain restructuring, digital transformation, and green innovation, helping SMEs break regional boundaries and integrate into the global value chain [3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the tungsten industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The global tungsten industry is experiencing a complex situation characterized by resource control competition and technological upgrades, with supply chain camp formation [2][12] - China's tungsten industry is undergoing a transformation towards high-value-added products, driven by domestic upgrades and international market expansion [3][39] - The geopolitical landscape is influencing regional procurement trends, particularly in emerging markets like Russia and ASEAN countries [3][51] Summary by Sections 1. Background of the Game: Strategic Value of Tungsten Resources and Supply System - 80% of global tungsten resources come from China, while high-end application technologies are dominated by Europe and the US, leading to a clash between China's outward industrial upgrade and the US's protection of its domestic industries [12][13] - The US aims to reduce dependency on Chinese tungsten through tariffs and domestic mining initiatives, while China seeks to maintain its resource advantages and expand its international market share [2][12] 2. Policy Duel: China's and the US's Dual Strategies - China's tungsten industry policies focus on transformation and control, implementing measures such as export tariffs and quotas to manage production and sales [16][22] - The US is working to lower its reliance on Chinese tungsten by diversifying import sources and increasing domestic production through the Defense Production Act [25][30] 3. Export Trends: Acceleration of Transformation in the Tungsten Industry - China's tungsten exports are experiencing a decline in overall volume but are shifting towards high-value products, with significant growth in exports to Russia and ASEAN countries [39][51] - The export structure is changing, with a focus on high-end products like hard alloy tools, which have seen price increases and growing demand [45][43] 4. Industry Opportunities: Focus on Regional Markets in Russia, Europe, and ASEAN - The geopolitical situation is driving regional procurement, with Russia emerging as a significant market for Chinese tungsten exports, showing a compound annual growth rate of nearly 70% from 2018 to 2024 [3][51] - The EU's rearmament plans are expected to stimulate demand for tungsten products, particularly in Germany, creating opportunities for Chinese manufacturers [3][51]

Core Viewpoint - The deadline for US-EU trade negotiations is likely to be postponed, with significant tariffs looming if no agreement is reached, highlighting the complexities and uncertainties in global trade dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - The EU faces a deadline on July 9 for trade negotiations with the US, with potential tariffs of up to 50% on EU exports if no agreement is reached [1]. - Valentino Valentini emphasizes that dialogue is essential, and the current strategy of postponing deadlines creates unnecessary anxiety [1]. - The use of tariffs as a tool to fill fiscal deficits rather than to balance trade is concerning, as it may lead to broader economic repercussions [3]. Group 2: Impact on Investment and Supply Chains - The sudden imposition of tariffs has dampened investment confidence and accelerated supply chain restructuring, shifting from a "just-in-time" to a "just-in-case" model [3]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is causing companies to pause new investments, particularly in emerging markets, which are already facing economic challenges [6][7]. - The World Bank reports that foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to developing countries have dropped to their lowest level since 2005, with developed economies also experiencing significant slowdowns [6]. Group 3: Geopolitical Risks and Economic Outlook - Geopolitical uncertainties and trade barriers are contributing to a decline in global investment, with private equity exits becoming more challenging [6]. - Emerging markets are particularly affected, as high inflation and debt accumulation hinder their economic recovery, while FDI continues to flow into safer, mature markets [7]. - The future of FDI is contingent on the resolution of geopolitical tensions, which currently disrupt traditional investment patterns [7].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or company involved Core Insights - JD.com has launched the "JD Hotel PLUS Membership Program," entering the hotel and travel sector with a zero-commission model for up to three years, aiming to drive traffic through multiple channels [1][7] - The strategy focuses on supply chain integration to reduce procurement costs for small and medium-sized hotels, addressing inefficiencies in traditional procurement practices [2][8] - JD's zero-commission policy directly challenges existing OTA platforms that charge 15-30% commissions, significantly easing cash flow burdens for merchants [3][9] - Positive market feedback has been observed from regional hotel chains and mid-sized operators, particularly in lower-tier markets [4][10] - JD aims to create an integrated consumption loop by linking food, lodging, and transportation, leveraging its existing high-frequency service infrastructure [3][11] - The company targets high-value travel segments through its PLUS membership and enterprise client resources, potentially enhancing overall profitability metrics [4][12] - Despite its differentiated approach, JD faces challenges in consumer perception and operational execution in the travel booking space [3][13] Summary by Sections Event Overview - JD.com officially launched its hotel and travel program in June 2025, offering zero commission for participating hotels and emphasizing supply chain integration [1][7] Strategic Approach - The company aims to reshape the operational structure of small hotels by reducing non-rental costs, which can account for up to 60% of total operating expenses [2][8] - The zero-commission strategy is designed to attract merchants and disrupt existing commission structures in the OTA market [3][9] Market Response - Initial feedback from regional hotel chains has been positive, especially in markets where JD's high-value user base can be leveraged [4][10] Ecosystem Synergy - JD is integrating various services to create a seamless consumer experience, potentially increasing user engagement and repurchase rates [3][11] - The strategy overlaps with existing corporate travel offerings, aiming to enhance overall customer lifetime value [4][12] Challenges Ahead - JD must overcome consumer perception issues and build operational capabilities in areas where traditional OTAs have established advantages [3][13]

证券研究报告 二手船价先于新船价企稳，301对中国造船业冲击逐步修复 ——2025年5月造船订单总结 证券分析师：闫海 A0230519010004 王晨鉴 A0230525030001 2025.6.10 ◼ 301具体落地政策较草案强度大幅减弱，造船利空压力释放：豁免条件显示在美订造船舶可取得豁免，美国民船建造能力差，产业链搭 建难且劳工招募成本高，同时豁免条件增加订单流向日韩压力减弱，叠加日韩船厂产能饱和，一阶段订单流向日韩带动船价提升，二阶 段高价单重新回流中国，当前老船替换主逻辑下，收费设置上限相当于增设附加费，可被造船业供需紧张带动的船价上行覆盖。301落地 后新签订单及船价有望修复。年初以来，受制于301扰动，船东观望情绪强，造船市场成交量大幅下降，船价阴跌，预期落地后，积压造 船需求有望释放，重新带动订单量及船价上行。 ◼ 关税谈判后看好造船进入预期修复阶段，新签订单及船价有望修复：需求端：中美贸易缓和带动航运市场贸易修复，运价上涨后船公司 资产负债表修复，老船替换主逻辑船公司下单意愿增强。供给端：船厂产能依旧紧缺。年初以来，受制于301扰动，船东观望情绪强，造 船市场成交量大幅下降，船价阴跌 ...

美联储的货币政策走向同样对金价至关重要。尽管市场预计美联储在9月之前降息的可能性较低，但利率期货显示，投资者仍押注2025年晚些时候可能出现 25个基点的降息。如果通胀数据超预期，美联储可能进一步推迟降息计划，从而对美元形成支撑，短期内对金价构成压力。然而，长期来看，经济复苏的不 确定性和全球地缘政治风险将继续推高黄金的避险需求。值得注意的是，中国央行在5月连续第七个月增持黄金储备。这一举动不仅反映了中国对黄金作为 战略资产的重视，也为金价提供了长期支撑。黄金储备的增加被视为一种多元化资产配置的策略，旨在降低对美元资产的依赖。其他新兴市场国家可能效仿 这一趋势，进一步推高全球黄金需求。 基本面： 周二（6月10日）亚市早盘，现货白银窄幅震荡，本周焦点：中美贸易谈判、通胀数据经历就业数据密集的一周后，本周重心转向通胀数据，关键价格稳定 指标将陆续公布： 贸易谈判的结果将对全球经济和金价产生深远影响。如果会谈取得积极进展，市场风险偏好可能短暂回升，短期内对金价形成一定压 力。然而，长期来看，贸易战引发的供应链重构和全球经济放缓将继续支撑黄金需求。投资者需要密切关注会谈的进展，尤其是双方在关税减免和市场开放 方面的 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the impact of the recent US-China tariff agreement, where the US cancels 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods, while China suspends additional tariffs for 90 days, leading to significant shifts in trade dynamics between the two countries [1][3][12] - Following the agreement, there was a surge in cargo traffic from US ports to China, but traditional US exports like energy and agricultural products faced a decline in demand from China [3][6] - The US soybean exports to China dropped by 32% in Q1 2025, while Brazil's soybean exports reached 60 million tons, indicating a shift in China's sourcing preferences towards South America [6][10] Group 2 - In the energy sector, US propane shipments were not approved for entry into China, redirecting to Southeast Asia, while China signed long-term contracts for liquefied natural gas with Qatar and Canada [8][22] - In manufacturing, China has replaced US scrap steel imports with nickel pig iron from Indonesia, and cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo to China surged by 47% [10][15] - China's chip self-sufficiency has increased to 35%, indicating a significant reduction in reliance on US semiconductor imports despite ongoing US restrictions [11][12] Group 3 - The article highlights a broader trend of China reducing imports from the US due to various factors, including a shift towards clean energy and a growing domestic market for electric vehicles, which has decreased the demand for US energy imports [15][17] - The trust crisis stemming from US policy fluctuations has led Chinese companies to seek stable and reliable supply sources outside the US [19][20] - The restructuring of supply chains and the establishment of a new global trade order based on the renminbi is underway, as China diversifies its energy and commodity sources [22][24] Group 4 - The article discusses the current state of the US economy, noting a decline in support for the Trump administration and a general perception of poor economic performance among Americans [26][28] - Economic uncertainty in the US has led to increased inflation and rising prices for consumers, with estimates suggesting an annual loss of $1,200 per household due to higher import tariffs [30][31] - The article concludes that the temporary resolution of the US-China trade conflict may provide short-term relief, but without a change in US policy, a trend towards economic recession is likely [37][38]

Core Viewpoint - The 22nd Nomura Asia Investment Forum highlights the complexities of the current market environment, emphasizing the need for strategic adaptation and collaboration to seize emerging opportunities amidst challenges [2][5]. Group 1: Market Environment - The ongoing trade disputes have caused significant market volatility and disrupted traditional trade flows, leading to a re-evaluation of production layouts and global business strategies by many companies [5]. - Technological advancements, geopolitical shifts, and continuous economic policy adjustments present both challenges and opportunities for businesses [5]. Group 2: Company Strategy and Performance - Despite market fluctuations, the global market business of the company has demonstrated remarkable resilience and adaptability, reflecting strategic initiatives and client trust [6]. - The company aims to leverage its local advantages in Japan to build a robust revenue system across various business segments [6]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Positive signals from the Chinese economy have prompted the company to raise its GDP growth forecast for China to 4.5% for the year [7]. - India is identified as an attractive market with long-term opportunities, and the company is keen to expand its client base there [6]. Group 4: Forum Insights - The forum brings together experts from various fields, including economics, markets, geopolitics, tariff policies, asset allocation, and technology, to provide multi-dimensional insights [8]. - Approximately 850 investors and 140 companies are participating in the forum, indicating strong interest and engagement in the discussions [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The company's performance met expectations, with a focus on the anti-aging agent industry reaching a bottom and the upcoming increase in lubricant additive volume [1][2]. - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, with high-end products accounting for a growing share of sales, leading to an increase in revenue and profit margins [7]. - The second phase of the Kangtai project is gradually releasing capacity, contributing to performance growth, while the lubricant additive business is expected to benefit from global supply chain restructuring [7]. - The life sciences business is being pushed to market, with electronic-grade PI business accelerating integration domestically and internationally, opening new growth avenues [7]. - The profit forecast has been adjusted downwards for 2025-2026 due to trade disruptions and weak terminal demand, with new profit estimates for 2027 introduced [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 6,559 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.3% [3]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 585 million in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 37.2% [3]. - Earnings per share are forecasted to be 2.55 yuan in 2025, with a gross margin of 22.4% [3]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 11.8% in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12 [3]. Market Data - As of May 20, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 29.92 yuan, with a market capitalization of 6,723 million [4]. - The stock has a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.5, indicating a relatively high safety margin compared to its historical average [4][7].

Core Insights - The global political and economic landscape is evolving under Trump's second term, with the U.S. market still holding strategic value for Chinese companies' globalization efforts [1] - Chinese enterprises need to enhance their capabilities in international rule interpretation and establish dynamic response mechanisms in supply chain restructuring and compliance management [1] Group 1: Trade Policy and Tariffs - Trump's trade policy is characterized by five strategic directions, including unilateral trade policies and the weakening of multilateral rules [3][4] - Tariff mechanisms include IEEPA tariffs raising Chinese imports by 20%, 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum products, and a significant increase in counter-tariffs on Chinese goods [4] - The Geneva Joint Statement led to a temporary suspension of tariff increases on certain goods, indicating a phase of balance in tariff negotiations [4] Group 2: Supply Chain Risks and Compliance - Supply chain risk management is crucial for internationalization, with origin rules posing significant risks [5] - Common misconceptions about origin rules can lead to unnecessary tariff burdens and compliance risks, emphasizing the need for a detailed understanding of U.S. customs regulations [5] - ESG compliance has become a global regulatory focus, requiring companies to integrate supply chain compliance with ESG management to navigate complex international regulations [6] Group 3: Economic Sanctions and Legal Risks - Chinese companies engaging in U.S. business must adhere to U.S. economic sanctions to avoid severe penalties and asset freezes [7] - The "long-arm jurisdiction" of U.S. law poses significant challenges for Chinese enterprises, with many facing legal difficulties due to unfamiliarity with U.S. legal systems [8] - Key legal challenges include a lack of understanding of U.S. legal rules, external pressures from trade tensions, and high costs associated with legal compliance [9] Group 4: Supply Chain Restructuring Strategies - Companies are encouraged to adopt strategic supply chain restructuring to mitigate risks and enhance efficiency, with three main approaches suggested: relocating production to third countries, separating overseas and domestic operations, and establishing local production in the U.S. [10][11]