贵金属市场宏观趋势与基本面分析 20251204 摘要 美联储降息预期摇摆不定，受劳动力市场放缓和经济疲软影响，12 月降 息概率上升，但官员对降息路径存在分歧，鲍威尔言论偏鹰派，数据缺 失也增加不确定性，12 月或降息 25 个基点后暂停。 美国消费表现疲软，零售销售同比接近零，个人储蓄下降，劳动力市场 和薪资增速放缓抑制消费，信用卡违约率创新高，消费对 GDP 增长形成 压力。 全球黄金需求第三季度创历史新高，总需求量同比增加 3%，总金额飙 升 44%，达 1,460 亿美元，央行购金、ETF 投资、金条金币及首饰需 求均增加，投资需求占据主导地位。 全球央行持续购金，新兴市场国家如中国、土耳其、印度和波兰大规模 购入黄金，中国已连续 12 个月增持，央行行为可能影响个人投资者决 策。 白银市场供需缺口依然存在，预计今年全球白银供需缺口为 3,657 吨， 这将进一步支撑白银价格，但白银价格波动率高于黄金，对国内政策变 动更敏感。 Q&A 宏观经济因素对贵金属市场有何影响？ 宏观经济因素对贵金属市场影响显著。目前，美联储降息预期的不确定性增加， 主要由于美国劳动力市场放缓和经济走弱迹象明显。美联储主席人 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite the current fluctuations in gold prices, the overall trend remains bullish due to supportive factors such as anticipated interest rate cuts and strong global central bank demand for gold [1][3][4] - The market is currently awaiting key economic data, including U.S. non-farm payrolls and CPI, which are expected to influence future interest rate decisions and support gold prices [3][4] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is seen as a pivotal moment, with expectations of a dovish shift in monetary policy that could further bolster gold prices in the long term [4] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index has shown a recent decline, which typically supports gold prices; however, the current market conditions are causing gold to experience some resistance near key levels [1][3] - The market is in a phase of adjustment, with gold prices oscillating near resistance levels, indicating a potential accumulation phase before a breakout [3][4] - Geopolitical tensions and strong demand from central banks are providing a solid foundation for gold prices, suggesting a bullish outlook for the next year [4]

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Volatile [2] - Glass: Weakly volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2 - year treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 5 - year treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 10 - year treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Strongly volatile [4] - Silver: Strongly volatile [4] - Logs: Bottoming out with volatility [5] - Pulp: Volatile [5] - Offset paper: Volatile [5] - Soybean oil: Range - bound [7] - Palm oil: Range - bound [7] - Rapeseed oil: Range - bound [7] - Soybean meal: Weakly volatile [7] - Rapeseed meal: Weakly volatile [7] - Soybean No.2: Weakly volatile [7] - Soybean No.1: Weakly volatile [7] - Live pigs: Strongly volatile [8] - Rubber: Volatile [11] - PX: Widely volatile [11] - PTA: Volatile [11] - MEG: Weakly volatile [11] - PF: Await - and - see [11] Core Views - The overall market shows a complex and volatile trend, with different products affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationship, policy, and international situation. For example, the iron ore market is in a supply - surplus pattern, and the price is volatile at a high level; the gold price is supported by central bank purchases and geopolitical risks, and the short - term fluctuations are affected by the Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment [2][4][6] Summary by Category Black Industry - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments increased by 44.7 million tons to 33.232 billion tons, 47 - port foreign ore arrivals decreased by 155.5 million tons to 27.84 billion tons, and daily average hot metal production decreased by 1.6 million tons to 2.3468 billion tons. The demand core lies in the real estate, and the new construction has dropped to the 2005 level. The supply - surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, and the price is volatile at a high level [2] - Coking coal and coke: On December 1st, the first round of coke price cuts was implemented, and there are still expectations of further cuts. After the previous continuous decline, the valuation is reasonable, and there was a bottom - rebound on Monday. The market is worried about the resumption of production on the supply side. Steel and coke enterprises still have restocking needs, and the price is supported at a low level in the short term [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The downstream demand is sluggish, and the winter restocking has not started yet. The core lies in steel demand, and the real estate new construction has dropped to the 2005 level. The steel price depends on the implementation of production reduction and anti - "involution" policies. The price is expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate [2] - Glass: There are supply - side disturbances. The market expects three production lines in Hubei to be cold - repaired in December, but there are rumors of a delay. The float glass inventory has decreased, but the real - estate completion decline drags down the demand. The price is weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to the cold - repair progress and macro situation [2] - Soda ash: The report does not provide detailed information other than the investment rating of "volatile" [2] Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.48%, the SSE 50 index fell by 0.51%, the CSI 500 index fell by 0.87%, and the CSI 1000 index fell by 1.00%. The market has short - term adjustments, but the medium - term trend is still optimistic [4] - Treasury bonds: The central bank increased the net investment of medium - and long - term liquidity tools in November. The 10 - year treasury bond yield rose by 1bp, and the market trend rebounded slightly [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment are short - term disturbance factors, and the long - term price is supported by the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks [4][6] Light Industry - Logs: The average daily port shipment volume decreased last week. The import volume in October showed different trends, and the expected arrival volume decreased significantly. The inventory pressure has weakened, and the price is expected to bottom out with volatility [5] - Pulp: The spot market price became stronger on the previous trading day, and the cost support increased, but the paper mills' acceptance of high - price pulp is low, and the price is expected to be volatile [5] - Offset paper: The spot market price was partially raised on the previous trading day. The supply is stable, the orders are expected to increase, and the price is expected to be volatile [5] Oilseeds and Oils - Oils: The US soybean crushing reached a record high, but the US biodiesel policy is uncertain. The palm oil production and inventory in Malaysia in October were higher than expected, and the export in November decreased. The domestic oil supply is abundant, and the price is expected to be range - bound [7] - Meals: The US soybean supply is structurally tight, but the global supply is relatively loose. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [7] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight is declining. The supply is abundant, the demand is limited, and the settlement price is decreasing. The slaughtering rate increased slightly but is expected to weaken next week. The average weekly price is expected to continue to decline [8] Soft Commodities and Chemicals - Rubber: The raw material price in Yunnan is stable, and the output in Hainan decreased due to temperature. The supply in Thailand and Vietnam is affected by rain. The inventory is increasing seasonally, and the price is expected to be widely volatile [11] - PX: The crude oil supply is in surplus, and the price is falling. The PX supply is high, but the downstream demand is good, and the price is widely volatile [11] - PTA: The cost is loosening, the short - term supply - demand situation has improved, but the industry is seasonally weakening, and the price is expected to follow the cost [11] - MEG: The long - term inventory pressure exists, and the short - term price is weakly volatile [11] - PF: The market is expected to be narrowly adjusted under the game of multiple factors [11]

张尧浠：美联储更宽松周期前景升温、金价预酝酿进一步牛市 另外，美元指数也持续运行在200日均线阻力下方，周图也处于200周均线下方，月图也是处于之前2年多的震荡区间下方，综合来看，未来一年前景，美 元指数都难以对金价造成趋势性的压力。反而有利好的预期；另外，美债10年期收益率，已高位震荡2年多，附图指标则显示顶部背离，这暗示后市将有 趋势性的走低，而会大幅且持续的利好金价。 上交易日周二(12月2日)：国际黄金触底回升收跌，收于5-10日均线上方，相对于周一的倒垂，有回落调整出尽转看涨的预期，故此，后市仍可以低多看涨 反弹为主。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4231.36美元/盎司，先行录得日内高点4235.97美元，之后则持续回落走低，于欧盘初触及4181美元一线，并反弹回升，延续 至美盘初触及日开盘价附近，但最终再度遇阻回落跳水，录得日内低点4163.81美元，并再度触底回升，收盘于4205.63美元，日振幅72.16美元，收跌25.73 美元，跌幅0.61%。 影响上，金价日内因技术阻力压制和雷同于11月13日的形态看空预期，而获利了结先行走低，并在美盘一度跳水，但由于支撑买盘推动，以及特朗普积极 暗示更 ...

昨日12月2日（星期二），黄金开盘后开始震荡下跌，欧盘最低跌至4181附近回升，美盘上涨4230/4231区域受阻大跌，在跌至4164/4163区域企稳反弹，收 盘前反弹至4212附近，日线收出一根带有长下影线的阴线。 一、基本面 1、美联储降息预期强烈：市场对12月美联储降息25个基点的定价概率达89%，较一月前的63%大幅上升。美国制造业数据弱于预期等经济降温迹象，进一 步强化降息预期；即将公布的11月ADP就业报告、9月PCE指数等关键数据将为利率路径提供指引。此外，特朗普计划明年初提名新美联储主席，鸽派热门 人选哈西特若上任，可能放大宽松预期，长期利好黄金。 2、全球央行购金热情高涨：10月各国央行净购金53吨，环比增长36%，创2025年初以来最大月度需求。央行持续青睐黄金作为储备资产，对冲地缘风险与 货币贬值压力，为金价提供稳定需求支撑。 3、地缘政治风险升级：俄美就乌克兰问题举行闭门会谈但未达成妥协，局势仍存不确定性；特朗普表态将对贩运非法毒品的国家采取攻击措施，引发相关 国家反击，国际紧张氛围刺激避险情绪，推动投资者转向黄金。 4、本交易日需关注美国11月ADP就业人数变动、9月进口物价指数月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant surge, with international gold prices surpassing $4,150 per ounce and domestic gold prices exceeding 950 yuan per gram, marking a cumulative increase of 54% in 2025, reflecting a historical record driven by global central bank gold purchases [1][3]. Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China has been actively accumulating gold, impacting the supply-demand balance in the market, akin to a wealthy homeowner hoarding a commodity [3]. - Central banks are now replacing part of their foreign exchange reserves with gold, indicating a shift in reserve management strategies [5]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data releases, including U.S. non-farm employment and consumer spending, are expected to influence gold prices significantly, as the market is at a crossroads regarding its direction [3][13]. - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts and the expectation of further reductions are contributing to a decline in the dollar index, which in turn supports higher gold prices [7]. Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with significant price spikes observed during periods of risk escalation [9]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global gold demand reached 1,249 tons in Q2 2025, a 3% year-on-year increase, with central banks being a crucial pillar of this demand [11]. - The supply of gold is stagnating due to rising mining costs and diminishing easy-to-extract resources, reinforcing the price support for gold [11]. Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt differentiated strategies in response to high gold prices, such as prioritizing gold bars and coins over jewelry to minimize costs [15]. - The increase in holdings of gold ETFs by institutional investors indicates a trend that retail investors may consider following [15]. Market Outlook - The ongoing central bank gold purchases are seen as a critical support for gold prices, providing a "safety cushion" against potential market corrections [15]. - The evolving role of gold in household assets is being redefined, as it is increasingly recognized for its value in risk management and as a cultural symbol [15].

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is rising, which is likely to boost gold prices significantly in the near future [1][9]. Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at a memorial event, with market speculation about potential new leadership at the Fed [1]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is now at 87.4%, a significant increase from 39.6% just weeks prior [1][9]. - Analysts from CITIC Securities suggest that declining inflation and a weakening labor market are contributing to the rising expectations for a rate cut, which would lower nominal and real interest rates, providing new momentum for gold prices [1]. Gold Market Performance - On December 1, the precious metals market saw a strong opening, with gold stocks leading gains in the A-share market [1]. - Spot gold prices have surged, breaking through $4,250 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 62% [12]. - The New York futures gold price also exceeded $4,290 per ounce, reflecting the same year-to-date growth [12]. Silver Market Performance - Spot silver prices have risen for six consecutive trading days, reaching $57.81 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 100% [12][15]. - The New York futures silver price is reported at $58.37 per ounce, also showing a similar year-to-date growth [12][15]. Investment Trends - There has been a significant increase in investment in silver bars and related products, with sales reportedly up over 40% year-on-year [14]. - Analysts expect continued strong inflows into gold ETFs, driven by ongoing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [10]. Central Bank Activity - Global central banks continue to purchase gold, with a reported net purchase of 39 tons in September, a 79% increase from August, marking the highest monthly net purchase since 2025 [16]. - The ongoing buying activity from central banks is anticipated to further support gold prices [16]. Future Price Projections - Analysts from Dongfang Securities predict that gold prices may continue to rise, potentially reaching $4,500 per ounce by the end of 2025 and possibly exceeding $5,000 per ounce in 2026 [17]. - Goldman Sachs has identified gold as a top commodity to buy, forecasting a potential rise to $4,900 per ounce later next year due to central bank purchases and declining interest rates [17].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is experiencing a significant upward trend, primarily driven by market risk sentiment and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of December 1, spot gold rose by 0.38% to $4239.22 per ounce, with an intraday high of $4256.55 per ounce [1] - The volatility in market risk sentiment is a key factor influencing gold prices, with the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut being a dominant driver [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The unresolved situation in Ukraine continues to sustain market risk aversion, contributing to the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 3: Central Bank Behavior - Global central bank gold purchases are crucial to monitor, especially in December, which is a key settlement period; such purchases are seen as effective means to stabilize foreign exchange and financial markets, providing upward momentum for gold prices [1] Group 4: Investment Strategy - While some investment banks hold an optimistic outlook on future gold price increases, individual investors are advised to remain cautious, focusing on the resilience and sustainability of price levels above $4200 per ounce, with potential targets of $4300 and $4400 per ounce [1] - Investors are encouraged to maintain flexibility in their investment strategies, with small amounts of capital suggesting options like paper gold and bank-stored gold for asset allocation [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold futures are in an upward trend, possibly at the end of the trend. Last week, the price showed a volatile and upward trend with a cumulative increase of 2.54%. In the short - term, it may maintain high - level volatility, and in the long - term, it is supported by central bank gold purchases and the easing cycle [7]. - Silver futures are in a strong upward phase, also possibly at the end of the trend. Last week, the price showed a volatile and strengthening trend. In the short - term, it may maintain high - level volatility, and in the long - term, it is supported by supply - demand balance and the easing cycle [31]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly at the end of the trend [7]. - **Trend Logic**: Last week, the gold price was volatile and upward, with a 2.54% increase. It was driven by the strengthened expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut, a weaker US dollar index, and continuous capital inflow. However, the upward momentum was restricted as the market had partially priced in the easing expectation before the December FOMC meeting. In the future, it may maintain high - level volatility in the short - term and be supported by central bank gold purchases and the easing cycle in the long - term [7]. - **Mid - term Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The Shanghai Gold contract 2602 was in short - term volatility. The upper pressure level was 960 - 970 yuan/gram, and the lower support level was 910 - 920 yuan/gram. It was recommended to wait and see [10]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The Shanghai Gold contract 2602 may continue high - level volatility in the short - term. The upper pressure level is 960 - 970 yuan/gram, and the lower support level is 930 - 940 yuan/gram. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Related Data Situation**: The report provides data on the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][21][23][25][27]. Silver Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward phase, possibly at the end of the trend [31]. - **Trend Logic**: Last week, the silver price was volatile and strengthening. It was driven by the strengthened expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut, continuous depletion of global silver inventory, recovery of industrial demand, and large - scale capital inflow. In the future, it may maintain high - level volatility in the short - term and be supported by supply - demand balance and the easing cycle in the long - term [31]. - **Mid - term Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [32]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The silver contract 2602 was in short - term consolidation. The upper pressure level was 12,000 - 12,200 yuan/kg, and the lower support level was 11,600 - 11,800 yuan/kg. It was recommended to wait and see [35]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The silver contract 2602 may strengthen in short - term volatility. The upper pressure level is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/kg, and the lower support level is 11,500 - 12,000 yuan/kg. It is recommended to buy on dips [36]. - **Related Data Situation**: The report provides data on the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [43][45][47].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has experienced a strong bull run in 2023, with international gold prices increasing by 58.41% year-to-date, reaching a high of $4,100 per ounce as of November 27 [1] Group 1: Factors Supporting Gold Prices - Global central banks continue to purchase gold, with a net purchase of 39 tons in September, a 79% increase from August, marking the highest monthly net purchase in 2025 [1] - A survey indicated that 95% of central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019 [1] - Gold is becoming a preferred asset for central banks' diversified reserves, indicating long-term demand [1] Group 2: Economic Influences on Gold Prices - The deepening interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve is expected to enhance gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset, with market expectations of approximately two rate cuts in 2026 [2] - The decrease in interest rates lowers the opportunity cost of holding gold, thereby increasing its attractiveness [2] Group 3: Geopolitical and Credit Risks - Heightened geopolitical tensions and ongoing trade friction are driving demand for safe-haven assets like gold [2] - The increasing scale of U.S. debt and concerns over dollar credit risk contribute to a long-term trend of "de-dollarization," further supporting gold prices [2]