Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the alarming increase in leverage among major hedge funds involved in basis trading, raising concerns about potential market instability and the need for Federal Reserve intervention to prevent a crisis similar to past financial collapses [1][7][23]. Group 1: Hedge Fund Leverage and Basis Trading - Major hedge funds, including Millennium, Citadel, and Balyasny, have seen their regulatory leverage nearly double since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, approaching levels seen before the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) [1]. - The leverage used in these trades is reported to be around 20 times, indicating a high-risk environment for these institutions [4]. - A mere 5% loss in these leveraged positions could lead to catastrophic outcomes for the funds involved [7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - The current market conditions are characterized by a significant sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, with a record increase in yields, attributed to panic selling by hedge funds [12][14]. - The 10-year Treasury yield has surged by 50 basis points in just two days, reflecting the extreme volatility and fear in the market [14][16]. - The liquidity crisis is affecting all markets, leading to stock market declines and a potential dollar shortage due to the unwinding of synthetic dollar shorts [21]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Role and Potential Actions - The Federal Reserve is under pressure to intervene, with discussions around potential measures such as rate cuts or quantitative easing to stabilize the market [18][22]. - There is a growing sentiment that the Fed may need to act soon, especially with significant events like the upcoming 10-year Treasury auction that could test market liquidity [21]. - The paradox exists where increasing liquidity issues could be misinterpreted as inflationary signals, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [21].

作 者丨吴斌 编 辑丨和佳 "她那时候还太年轻，不知道所有命运赠送的礼物，早已在暗中标好了价码。" 1 9 3 2年，著名作家斯蒂芬·茨威格在《断头王后》中对玛丽·安托 瓦内特的命运唏嘘不已。 美元头上的王冠，象征着荣耀，也意味着责任，但滥用会遭遇"反噬"，恰如"断头王后"的坠落。 随着美国总统特朗普"对等关税"引爆世界对 美国的"信任危机"，美债的地位岌岌可危，一场抛售潮席卷而至，滥用优势的苦果开始显现。 在特朗普对世界推出百年未见的高关税后，短短数日， 美债市场已然"变天"。 上周避险情绪一度推动美债大涨，而到了本周，美债连日暴 跌。4月7日，1 0年期美债收益率飙升1 6个基点，8日再度大涨1 3个基点。4月9日，1 0年期美债收益率一度升破4 . 5%关口，较4月4日3 . 8 6%的 低位暴涨逾6 0个基点，3 0年期美债收益率更是直冲5%关口。 " 美债市场正在崩溃 "，4月9日，欧洲太平洋资本（Eu r o Pa c ifi c Ca p it a l）CEO兼首席全球策略师彼得·希夫（Pe t e r Sc h iff）在社交媒体上 发出警告。 但尴尬的是，在特朗普关税政策的通胀效应下，美联储 ...

随着全球市场对美国所谓的"对等关税"担忧加剧，美国债券市场出现动荡，1 0年期、3 0年期 的美债收益率快速上涨。长期以来，美债是全球金融市场动荡时的避险资产，但这一次却成 为资本逃离的对象。这意味着美国发动的关税战正在制造全球系统性金融风险。 我国的挑战之一是需避免由外而内输入的市场担忧情绪。目前中国的输入性金融风险相对较 小，但是，如果投资者看到美国市场大跌，从而跟随性抛售手里的资产，比如股票、住宅， 就会打压资产价格，从而对金融体系产生影响，对信心与消费带来影响。因此，政府需以鲜 明的立场与真实的金融力量稳定股市和楼市，避免市场担忧和信心流失。 美国政府突然抛出加征"对等关税"的政策，试图以极限施压的方式让各国迅速妥协 。理论上 而 言 ， 出 口 大 国 最 早 受 到 冲 击 ， 而 美 国 作 为 进 口 大 国 则 可 能 因 为 囤 货 等 因 素 ， 影 响 更 迟 出 现，且在前期具有一定心理优势。此外，美国政府试图通过冲击股市压低长期利率，从过去 的经验看，美国股市动荡往往会让债市成为全球资金避风港，从而压低债券收益率，有助于 减轻美国联邦债务的利息成本。 在过去，当一些国际投资者对中国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent liquidity risks in the U.S. market due to the unwinding of basis trades by hedge funds, which may lead to a significant increase in U.S. Treasury yields and systemic financial risks [1][12]. Summary by Sections Basis Trading Overview - Basis trading involves arbitrage between the cash, futures, and repo markets of U.S. Treasuries, where investors buy cash Treasuries and sell futures to profit from the price difference [2]. - The cost of basis trading primarily consists of borrowing costs in the repo market, while the return is derived from the basis, which is the difference between futures and cash prices [2][6]. Risks of Basis Trading - The main risks associated with basis trading include: 1. **Repo Roll-Over Risk**: Increased borrowing costs if liquidity in the repo market tightens [6]. 2. **Margin Risk**: Potential losses if futures and cash prices diverge significantly [6]. 3. **Leverage Risk**: High leverage can amplify the aforementioned risks [6]. Current Market Conditions - As of Q3 2024, hedge funds hold approximately $2.06 trillion in long positions in cash Treasuries and have about $1 trillion in net repo borrowings, indicating a total basis trading volume between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion [9][11]. - The market is currently characterized by high volatility, with the VIX and MOVE indices reaching recent highs, which may trigger increased margin requirements for hedge funds [12][16]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The U.S. Treasury market is experiencing an oversupply, exacerbated by a new debt ceiling proposal that could increase the deficit by $5.8 trillion over the next decade [16][19]. - Weak demand, particularly from foreign investors, has been noted since late last year, which could further pressure liquidity in the market [16][19]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Escalating trade tensions and geopolitical risks may lead to capital outflows from the U.S., contributing to a potential "triple whammy" of declines in stocks, bonds, and the dollar [19][20]. - Hedge funds, as significant net buyers of Treasuries since the beginning of the balance sheet reduction, have substantial exposure across various asset classes, which could facilitate the spread of risks across markets [22][24]. Future Outlook - The likelihood of systemic financial risks is increasing, particularly with the potential for liquidity shocks following the resolution of the debt ceiling in May-June [26]. - The Federal Reserve may be compelled to restart quantitative easing (QE) to stabilize the market, which could further exacerbate wealth inequality and contradict current economic policies aimed at strengthening the middle class [26].

如果 特朗普试图通过制造经济衰退来降低利率 ，以缓解36万亿美元国债压力，那么现在看来， 这个计划可能已经失败，并将带来灾难性的后果。 来源 | 华尔街见闻 | 4.430 +0.170 (+ 3.99%) | | --- | | 北京 | 图表 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1m | 5m | 15m | 30m | 1H | 4H | 1D | 1W | 1M | | | | रे | | 4.500 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 4.400 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 4.300 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 4.200 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 07:45 | | 12:00 | | | 16:16 | | 20:30 | | 00:45 | 05:00 | 10:00 | 14:1 | " 美债市场正在崩溃 "， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the volatility in the U.S. Treasury market due to tariff news, leading to increased selling pressure on U.S. bonds and a rise in yields [1][2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 18.92 basis points to 4.1835% by the end of trading on April 7, while the 2-year yield increased by 11.10 basis points to 3.7629% [1] - Short- to medium-term Treasury yields saw increases of over 10 basis points, while long-term yields (20-year and 30-year) rose by more than 20 basis points [1] Group 2 - The market reaction to President Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" initially led to a drop in Treasury yields, but subsequent developments caused a sell-off [1] - Reports of potential suspension of tariffs by the White House led to a strong rebound in U.S. stock indices, with the Nasdaq recovering from a 5% drop to a 4.3% gain, reflecting significant market volatility [1] - Hedge funds are reportedly reducing leverage and moving towards cash to mitigate market risks, leading to a wave of Treasury selling [2]