证券研究报告 | 行业月报 2025 年 08 月 19 日 建材 7 月数据点评：地产及基建投资增速双降，静待政策加码 水泥玻璃产量：水泥、玻璃产量累计同比达-4.5%、-5.0%，玻璃降幅略有 收窄。2025年 1-7月，全国水泥产量累计同比为-4.5%，7月当月同比为-5.6%， 降幅较 6 月当月基本相当。2025 年 1-7 月，全国玻璃产量累计同比为-5.0%， 7 月当月同比为-3.4%，较 6 月降幅继续收窄。 下游投资情况：竣工面积降幅明显扩大，基建投资由正转负。2025 年 7 月商 品房销售、施工、新开工、竣工面积同比变动-8.4%、-16.4%、-15.2%、-29.5%， 6 月同比值分别为-6.5%、+4.8%、-9.5%、-2.2%，降幅均有扩大，竣工面 积降幅扩大尤为明显。2025 年 7 月广义库存去化周期 5.33 年，较上月小幅 增加。2025 年 7 月房地产投资、基建投资同比-17.1%（6 月为-12.4%）、-1.9% （6 月为 5.3%），房地产投资降幅扩大，基建投资增速由正转负。 风险提示：原材料价格上涨或超预期；下游需求或低于预期；环保政策或出 现反复；行 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 30-year fixed-rate special government bonds with a total competitive bidding amount of 83 billion yuan on August 22, completing the issuance plan for August [1] - The total issuance scale of special government bonds in August will reach 235 billion yuan, making it the second highest monthly issuance this year, following May's 242 billion yuan [1] - The overall issuance plan for special government bonds this year is 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 300 billion yuan from last year, with 996 billion yuan already issued, achieving a progress rate of 76.6% [1] Group 2 - Of the 1.3 trillion yuan special government bonds to be issued this year, 800 billion yuan will support "two major" projects, and 500 billion yuan will be allocated for "two new" policies [2] - As of August 13, 188 billion yuan in investment subsidy funds for equipment updates has been allocated, supporting approximately 8,400 projects across various sectors, driving total investment exceeding 1 trillion yuan [2] - The issuance and utilization of special government bonds are seen as having multiple positive implications for stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, and benefiting people's livelihoods [2] Group 3 - From January to July, infrastructure investment grew by 3.2% year-on-year, contributing 43% to overall investment growth, which is 1.6 percentage points higher than the total investment growth rate [3] - Special government bonds play a crucial role in accelerating project progress and promoting industrial upgrades, providing solid financial support for infrastructure investment [3] - The injection of funds from special government bonds can leverage social capital, attracting more investment into the infrastructure sector and further promoting economic growth and employment [3]

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa's report indicates that Changjiang Infrastructure Group's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of the year is HKD 4.348 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 1% [1] - The company has confirmed the completion of the sale of its UK Rails assets, with performance and merger progress aligning with expectations [1] Financial Performance - The interim dividend per share is HKD 0.73, an increase of HKD 0.01 year-on-year [1] - The forecast for the second half indicates a slight slowdown in profit growth from the UK business [1] Strategic Moves - The company is not expected to declare a special dividend from the sale of the UK Rails assets [1] - There are rumors regarding the company's withdrawal from bidding for the UK National Grid's LNG project, which will be closely monitored [1] Analyst Rating - The target price has been raised from HKD 59 to HKD 63.5, with a reiterated "Buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a weak overall investment environment, with infrastructure investment under pressure. However, regional investments may gain flexibility as national strategic layouts deepen [2][3]. - Key statistics show that from January to July 2025, national fixed asset investment increased by 1.6% year-on-year, while manufacturing investment rose by 6.2%. In contrast, real estate investment decreased by 12.0% [10][12]. - Infrastructure investment (including all categories) grew by 7.3% year-on-year, although this represents a slowdown compared to previous months [10][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The construction industry experienced a weekly decline of 0.51%, underperforming against major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index (+1.70%) and the Shenzhen Component Index (+4.55%) [3][5]. - The best-performing sub-industries included international engineering (+4.36%), private infrastructure (+1.83%), and professional engineering (+0.81%) [5][8]. 2. Key Company Developments - China Power Construction signed a contract for the South Africa Mokolo-Crocodile River (West) water supply expansion project, valued at approximately 6.994 billion yuan, representing 1.10% of its 2024 revenue [13]. - China Metallurgical Group reported new contracts worth 611.34 billion yuan from January to July 2025, a decrease of 18.5% year-on-year, while overseas contracts increased by 38.0% [13][14]. 3. Investment Analysis - The report recommends low-valuation state-owned enterprises such as China Chemical, China Railway, and China Railway Construction, while also highlighting private companies like Zhi Te New Materials and Honglu Steel Structure as potential investment opportunities [2][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring new contract signings by key companies to gauge future performance [14].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The construction sector is expected to benefit from rising resource prices, particularly in the "construction + mining" sector, with a focus on the revaluation of mineral resources [2][13] - Recent inflation data in the US is favorable for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which has elevated the valuation of the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating a potentially strong copper price trend [2][13] - The construction companies with rich mineral resources, such as China Metallurgical Group and China Railway Group, are highlighted for their growth potential in the mining sector [2][13] Summary by Sections Resource Price Expectations - There is an ongoing expectation of rising prices for resource commodities, which is likely to enhance the performance of construction companies involved in resource business [2][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies like Northern International and Shanghai Construction in the coal and gold sectors, respectively, as they are positioned to benefit from price elasticity and profit improvements [2][13] Market Performance Review - The construction index fell by 0.44% during the week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.69%, resulting in a 2.12 percentage point lag [4][22] - Notable stock performances included Meichen Technology (+27%), Hongrun Construction (+23%), and Sentai Co. (+23%) [4][22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the recovery of infrastructure investments and the "anti-involution" investment theme, particularly in regions with high demand such as Sichuan, Zhejiang, Anhui, and Jiangsu [28][29] - Key recommendations include companies like Sichuan Road and Bridge, Zhejiang Communications, and major state-owned enterprises like China Communications Construction and China Railway Group, which are expected to benefit from strategic projects in the western regions [28][29] - The report also highlights the importance of nuclear power investments and emerging business directions in the construction sector, recommending companies like Libat and China Nuclear Engineering [30][31]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - Infrastructure investment in July showed a high increase in railway and water electricity fuel investment, while overall infrastructure investment is experiencing marginal slowdown, particularly in the central and western regions [1][2] - Real estate development investment from January to July decreased by 12%, with a significant drop of 17.1% in July alone, indicating a continued weakness in the real estate sector [2] - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with a total of 27,775.89 billion yuan issued from January to July, representing a year-on-year increase of 56.5%, which is expected to support infrastructure investment growth in the second half of the year [1] - Cement demand is anticipated to gradually recover, with a focus on investment opportunities at relatively low points in the market, despite a 4.5% year-on-year decline in cement production from January to July [3] - The flat glass market is showing signs of improvement, with a slight increase in prices and a reduction in inventory levels, suggesting a potential recovery in demand [4] Summary by Sections Infrastructure Investment - In July, infrastructure investment growth was supported by a 21.5% year-on-year increase in water electricity fuel investment, while transportation and storage investment saw a 3.9% increase [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on major engineering projects and infrastructure investments in the central and western regions [1] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector continues to show weakness, with significant declines in sales, new construction, and completion areas from January to July [2] - The report highlights the need for monitoring policy changes that could impact the real estate market [4] Cement and Glass Markets - Cement production decreased by 4.5% year-on-year, with a notable drop in July, but there are expectations for demand recovery as the market enters a peak season [3] - The flat glass market is experiencing a slight recovery, with improved trading conditions and reduced inventory levels [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2][25]. Core Viewpoints - Fixed asset investment continued to weaken in the first seven months of 2025, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.6%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. Manufacturing investment year-on-year increased by 6.2%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous period [4][12]. - Infrastructure investment is under pressure, with transportation, water conservancy, and public utility investments showing declining growth rates. Total infrastructure investment (including all sectors) increased by 7.3% year-on-year, down 1.6 percentage points from the first half of the year. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 3.2%, down 1.4 percentage points [5][6]. - Real estate investment remained low, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.0% in the first seven months of 2025, a decline of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous period. The number of new starts decreased by 18.3% year-on-year, while completions worsened with a decrease of 16.5% [12][18]. Summary by Sections Fixed Asset Investment - In the first seven months of 2025, fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.6%, with manufacturing investment increasing by 6.2%, indicating a synchronized decline in growth rates [4][6]. Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment faced pressure, with transportation, water conservancy, and public utility sectors experiencing declining growth rates. The year-on-year increase for total infrastructure investment was 7.3%, while investment excluding electricity was 3.2% [5][6]. Real Estate Investment - Real estate investment remained at a low level, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.0% in the first seven months of 2025. The decline in new starts was 18.3%, and completions decreased by 16.5% [12][18]. Investment Analysis Recommendations - The current industry total is weak, but regional investments may gain elasticity as national strategic layouts deepen. Recommended low-valuation state-owned enterprises include China Chemical, China Energy Construction, China Railway, and China Railway Construction. Attention is also drawn to China Power Construction, China Communications Construction, and China Metallurgical Group [18].

国家统计局最新数据显示，前7个月全国固定资产投资增速出现放缓态势。这一变化引发市场对经济增长动力的关注。在投资结构中，基础设施建设投资表 现相对稳健，其"稳定器"功能正在经济下行压力下凸显重要价值。 投资增速放缓态势明显 前7个月投资数据呈现分化格局。房地产开发投资延续下滑趋势，制造业投资增长动力有所减弱。相比之下，基础设施投资保持了相对稳定的增长水平。这 种结构性变化反映出当前经济运行中的复杂因素。 投资增速的放缓与多重因素相关。房地产市场调整持续深化，开发商投资意愿明显不足。制造业领域受到外部需求波动和产能过剩压力影响，企业扩产积极 性有所下降。同时，民间投资活力仍待进一步激发，这对整体投资增长形成制约。 基建投资"稳定器"作用凸显 在投资结构调整过程中，基础设施建设展现出逆周期调节的重要功能。各地重大工程项目加速推进，为稳定投资增长提供了有力支撑。交通、水利、能源等 领域的建设项目成为拉动投资的关键力量。 政府主导的基建投资具有明显的政策导向性。在经济下行压力加大的背景下，基建投资承担着托底经济的重要使命。专项债券发行为基建项目提供了充足的 资金保障，确保了重点工程的顺利实施。 基建投资的乘数效应正在显 ...

Group 1: Fixed Asset Investment - National fixed asset investment from January to July increased by 1.6% year-on-year, a decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [1] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) grew by 3.2% year-on-year, down 1.4 percentage points from the first half of the year [1] Group 2: Infrastructure Investment Outlook - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for macro policies to continue to exert force and to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [2] - Infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate, with an annual growth rate projected at around 6.0%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] - Changes in infrastructure investment include a shift in funding sources, with local special bonds facing constraints, while long-term special government bonds provide support [2] Group 3: Real Estate Investment - Real estate development investment from January to July decreased by 12.0% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.8 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [3] - The area of housing under construction fell by 9.2%, and the area of new commercial housing sold decreased by 4.0% [3] - The expected annual decline in real estate investment is projected to be around 9.0%, a reduction of 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous year [3] Group 4: Manufacturing Investment - Manufacturing investment from January to July increased by 6.2% year-on-year, although this represents a decline of 1.3 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [3] - The manufacturing sector is transitioning from quantitative expansion to qualitative development, with expectations of a shift from high-speed to medium-speed growth [4] - The annual growth rate for manufacturing investment is anticipated to be around 6.0%, down 3.2 percentage points from the previous year [4]

Core Insights - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 27.5% to HKD 7.709 billion, but profit from recurring operations declined by 15.7% to HKD 3.391 billion, indicating a shift in the profit structure with property development becoming the main driver of overall performance [1] Financing and Investment - The company conducted two large-scale public financings in the first half of 2025, raising a total of USD 6 billion to support its infrastructure investment plans, including a record USD 3 billion bond issuance in March [3] - The funds raised will support approximately HKD 140 billion in new railway projects and HKD 65 billion for railway facility updates and maintenance from 2023 to 2027 [3] New Railway Projects - The company made significant progress in new railway projects, signing an agreement with the government for the Northern Link (Phase 1) project, which will enhance connectivity between Hong Kong and Shenzhen [4] - The company plans to open the main line and branch line of the Northern Link by 2034, reflecting its commitment to government policies and innovative thinking [4] - Ongoing construction projects include various extensions and new stations, but the company faces challenges in managing construction impacts on existing operations and communities [4] Operational Performance - The company maintained a high service level with a 99.9% punctuality rate in passenger journeys during the first half of 2025, and ticket prices will remain unchanged for the 2025/2026 fiscal year [6] - The property development segment contributed significantly to profit growth, with ongoing projects expected to provide around 9,000 residential units [6] - However, the company faces multiple challenges, including geopolitical uncertainties, inflation, and changing passenger behaviors post-COVID-19, which may affect ridership and advertising revenue [6]