商品ETF还有以下特点： （4）商品ETF的投资成本较低 商品基金风险较低、操作简便、对于商品价格的追踪较为紧密，是比较理想的大类资产配置工具。其中 又以商品ETF优势最为突出：其规模效应和被动管理的模式使得单位投资的成本大幅降低，是最适合普 通投资者的低成本投资工具。 （6）商品ETF连通证券、期货交易市场 对于证券基金市场，商品期货ETF丰富了投资品种和避险工具，打通了期货市场的投资路径，满足了投 资者抵御通货膨胀风险、大类资产配置等需求；对于期货市场，商品期货ETF的上市也能进一步推动交 易所基金市场与商品期货市场协同发展，优化期货市场的投资者结构，推进我国期货市场以及整个资本 市场机构化、专业化进程，增强资本市场服务实体经济的能力，促进资本市场高质量发展。 （7）商品ETF潜在套利机会较多 商品ETF高效的交易机制和独特的跨证券、期货市场联动允许市场开发更多成熟的套利策略，在活跃资 本市场的同时也能减小资产定价误差，反映商品真实价格。比如，T+0交易使得当日买入的商品期货 ETF当日就可以卖出，在进行套利时可以不等到收盘，直接在盘中平仓获得套利收益。 选自深圳证券交易所基金管理部编著的《深交所ETF投 ...

（5）商品ETF的交易效率较高 一方面，由于商品ETF直接跟踪商品价格，对基本面反应更直接。另一方面，根据现有交易所相关规 则，商品ETF二级市场交易实行T+0制度，即当日买入的商品ETF份额当日可以卖出，支持日内多次买 卖操作，较股票ETF交易效率更高。 （6）商品ETF连通证券、期货交易市场 对于证券基金市场，商品期货ETF丰富了投资品种和避险工具，打通了期货市场的投资路径，满足了投 资者抵御通货膨胀风险、大类资产配置等需求；对于期货市场，商品期货ETF的上市也能进一步推动交 易所基金市场与商品期货市场协同发展，优化期货市场的投资者结构，推进我国期货市场以及整个资本 市场机构化、专业化进程，增强资本市场服务实体经济的能力，促进资本市场高质量发展。 商品ETF还有以下特点： （7）商品ETF潜在套利机会较多 （4）商品ETF的投资成本较低 商品ETF高效的交易机制和独特的跨证券、期货市场联动允许市场开发更多成熟的套利策略，在活跃资 本市场的同时也能减小资产定价误差，反映商品真实价格。比如，T+0交易使得当日买入的商品期货 ETF当日就可以卖出，在进行套利时可以不等到收盘，直接在盘中平仓获得套利收益。 商品基 ...

Market Overview - The market in early 2026 has shown strong performance across major asset classes, with the A-share market continuing its robust trend from the previous year, reaching new highs and maintaining high trading sentiment [1][5] - Commodity prices, particularly gold and silver, have surged, prompting institutions to raise their price forecasts, with many investors now focusing on investment opportunities in the commodity market [1][5] CTA Strategy Performance - In 2025, the profitability ratios for subjective CTA and quantitative CTA products were notably high at 88.2% and 90.4%, respectively, with median annual returns of 16.47% and 12.65%, and maximum drawdowns of -7.84% and -6.27% [1][6] - CTA remains a crucial component of asset allocation for high-net-worth investors [6] Market Environment and Asset Allocation - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, leading to global liquidity easing, while geopolitical risks in regions like Venezuela and Greenland may contribute to a volatile upward trend in global commodity prices [3][8] - Domestic policies aimed at reducing competition are expected to improve the internal supply-demand structure, potentially leading to a positive trend in PPI data and increased price elasticity for industrial products [3][8] - Commodities exhibit low correlation with equities and bonds, with a correlation of approximately 0.6 with equities and less than 0.2 with bonds, highlighting the importance of diversified asset allocation to mitigate risks [3][8] CTA Strategy Selection for Investors - Investors are advised to consider medium to long-term trend CTA strategies, as well as multi-strategy approaches that include cross-sectional long-short arbitrage and various time horizons [4][9] - The introduction of CTA combined with quantitative equity strategies can enhance capital efficiency, allowing investors to benefit from multiple asset sources with a single investment [4][9]

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The fundamental logic behind the continuous rise in gold prices reflects a wave of de-dollarization, with the U.S. government debt reaching $38 trillion and annual bond interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, accounting for over 20% of government revenue [1] - Many central banks are selling U.S. Treasury bonds and increasing their physical gold holdings, indicating a lack of trust in the dollar's credit [1] - International gold prices have surpassed $5,100 per ounce, with a potential long-term target of $10,000 per ounce, despite short-term fluctuations [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to allocate about 20% of their portfolios to gold assets, including physical gold, paper gold, gold ETFs, gold-themed funds, or gold stocks, to effectively hedge against inflation and dollar depreciation risks [1] - The contrasting trends of rising gold prices and declining U.S. dollar index are expected to continue, with the Federal Reserve likely to cut interest rates more than twice this year, further accelerating the decline of the dollar [2] - A significant portion of international capital is expected to flow into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, as these markets remain undervalued compared to U.S. stocks [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The stock market is anticipated to experience a slow bull market, with a notable increase in equity investments as investors seek opportunities amidst changing economic conditions [3] - Approximately 50 trillion RMB in fixed deposits will mature in 2026, leading to a potential shift in investment preferences towards stocks or bonds based on risk tolerance [3] - The current market environment suggests that high-quality stocks and funds may become key drivers of wealth differentiation, as the real estate investment phase has ended [5]

在市场利率持续下行、资产收益普降的背景下，财富管理行业中，FOF正逐步走向公众视野，成为 承接居民及企业财富配置需求的重要工具。 国泰海通资管副总裁左秀海日前接受证券时报·券商中国记者采访时，阐述了对行业趋势的洞察与公司的战略 布局。 左秀海拥有17年量化交易策略研究与系统服务经验，曾分管海通证券量化业务并构建其对冲基金服务体系，历 任海通资管副总经理，2025年12月出任国泰海通资管副总裁。在他看来，FOF的快速发展并非偶然，而是利率 环境、资产配置需求与管理人能力三大因素共同作用的结果。"FOF作为多资产、多策略的投研模式，参照海 外经验，其规模应介于权益产品与固定收益产品之间。结合中国实际，我们预计未来三年中国FOF规模将突破 1.5万亿元。" 多资产、多策略的FOF具有独特优势：在资产配置层面，它能实现对股票、债券、商品等多类资产的灵活组合 与动态配置。从组合投资理论来看，资产越分散、越多元化，投资组合净值的波动往往越能得到平滑，从而提 升风险调整后的收益。 他特别强调，当前经济转型期，传统行业的面临不小挑战，其投资回报率普遍在5%以下，这使得金融资产投 资收益更具吸引力。这一趋势在未来相当长时间内都 ...

Group 1 - Current international gold prices are at historical highs, and a short-term pullback is considered normal. If risk aversion decreases, some funds may exit the gold market to seek other asset allocation directions [1][8] - Compared to overvalued US stocks, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks remain undervalued in the global capital market. The CSI 300 index has a price-to-earnings ratio of only 15 times, which is below historical averages, indicating significant room for growth [1][8] - Recent technological breakthroughs in China, particularly in large models, semiconductor chips, and big data, have enhanced global capital confidence in Chinese technological innovation, reversing some pessimistic expectations about the Chinese economy [1][8] Group 2 - Since 2025, market expectations for economic recovery have increased, leading to a shift towards equity assets, which has significantly boosted the stock market. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, attracting more investors [2][9] - Approximately 50 trillion RMB of fixed deposits will mature in 2026, with previous rates around 3% now dropping to about 1%. This situation compels funds to reconsider their allocation between low-interest deposits and potentially more lucrative equity or bond markets [2][9] - In 2025, new fund sales in China exceeded 1 trillion units, with over half being equity funds, contrasting sharply with the previous year dominated by fixed-income funds, indicating a growing interest in equity asset allocation [2][9] Group 3 - The current market is characterized as a slow bull market rather than a fast bull market, suggesting that investors should maintain a stable stock-bond allocation ratio and hold positions for several years without frequent adjustments [3][10] - Equity funds are more volatile and suitable for risk-tolerant investors, while bond funds, although generally stable, can still experience fluctuations due to interest rate changes and liquidity issues [3][10] - The performance of different asset classes is showing significant divergence, with the real estate market experiencing a downturn, leading to a shift in investment strategies towards quality stocks and funds as the primary vehicles for wealth growth [4][11] Group 4 - The slow bull market provides a unique opportunity for investors to choose industries, stocks, and funds, allowing them to share in market growth without the pressure of rapid fluctuations [5][12] - Investors are advised to align their portfolios with the economic transformation and focus on sectors that align with national development strategies, avoiding industries that are gradually being phased out [6][12] - Continuous learning and improving financial literacy are essential for investors to navigate the stock market effectively, as the quality of individual stocks can vary significantly [6][12]

Core Insights - The bond ETF market is expected to experience explosive growth in 2025, with a total market size reaching 8290.24 billion yuan by the end of the year, marking a significant increase of 376.52% from the beginning of 2025 [2] - The growth is primarily driven by two new categories: benchmark market-making credit bond ETFs and sci-tech bond ETFs, which were launched for the first time in 2025 [2][4] Market Size and Composition - As of December 31, 2025, the total size of bond ETFs reached 8290.24 billion yuan, a substantial increase from 1739.73 billion yuan at the start of the year, with a net asset value share of 13.77% of all ETFs [2] - The bond ETF market consists of 53 products, accounting for 3.78% of the total number of ETFs [2] - The sci-tech bond ETFs tracked the CSI AAA Technology Innovation Company Bond Index with 16 products, totaling 2807.48 billion yuan, while the benchmark market-making credit bond ETFs reached 798.57 billion yuan [3] Investment Opportunities and Risks - The expectation of a shift in overseas monetary policy, particularly a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, is anticipated to positively impact the domestic bond ETF market [5] - Continuous policy support for the economy is expected to provide underlying support for the bond market, enhancing the attractiveness of bond ETFs [5] - There is a rising demand for bond ETFs from long-term funds such as insurance and pension funds, driven by the need for duration matching [6] - However, the supply side presents challenges, with projected net financing scales for government bonds and local bonds in 2026 potentially affecting market sentiment [6] Strategic Recommendations - Given the anticipated narrow fluctuation in bond market interest rates in 2026, institutions are advised to adopt a proactive management approach to their portfolios, focusing on maintaining flexibility and liquidity [8] - A "neutral to moderately conservative" duration level is recommended as a safety margin for investment portfolios [8] - Institutions should consider wave trading strategies to capitalize on market fluctuations, particularly during periods of monetary policy adjustments [9] - Structural allocation based on the performance of different bond types is crucial, with a focus on optimizing investment portfolios to enhance overall returns [9]

Tabl e_Title 2026 年 1 月 26 日 大类资产运行周报（20260119-20260123） 地缘风险有所缓和 美元指数周度回落 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | 1.09% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | -0.22% | | 全球债券指数 | 0.46% | | 全球国债指数 | 0.41% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | 0.58% 分析师 | | 美元指数 | -1.88% SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn 3.37% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | 3.84% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（2025102 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the profound changes in the Chinese bond market and how investment institutions can navigate uncertainties to find certainty opportunities, emphasizing a shift towards a new phase of "asset allocation + trading configuration" in fixed income investment [1][5]. Group 1: Market Environment and Trends - The Chinese bond market has transitioned from "old economy" to "new economy," reflecting macroeconomic changes, with the 10-year government bond yield showing a clear downward trend from around 3.6% in 2014 to approximately 1.0% by 2025 [7][8]. - The bond market has exhibited a "bull long, bear short" characteristic, with bull market cycles averaging around 25 months and bear markets typically lasting less than a year [8][12]. - The investment landscape has shifted from a focus on basic economic fundamentals and liquidity to a more complex framework that includes regulatory impacts and institutional behaviors [10][11]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Fixed income investment strategies have evolved, requiring a more nuanced approach to credit risk, emphasizing the need for in-depth analysis of issuer risks and industry dynamics [11][12]. - The current investment environment necessitates a refined liquidity management strategy and cross-market asset allocation to enhance returns, moving away from traditional "weak economy + loose monetary policy = bull market" logic [12][13]. - The "barbell strategy" is becoming a common choice among managers, focusing on assets with low correlation to balance risk and capture specific market opportunities [14]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a strategic opportunity for asset allocation, with improved visibility in the global macroeconomic landscape and significant policy shifts expected in both domestic and international contexts [18]. - The article highlights the importance of diversifying into multiple asset classes to enhance returns, with a focus on maintaining a stable fixed income foundation while exploring opportunities in commodities and equities [13][17]. - The anticipated growth in AI applications and infrastructure is expected to create new investment opportunities, with a focus on sectors such as technology and industrials [16][18].

Core Viewpoint - The increasing variety of passive investment tools in the domestic market has made ETF-based multi-asset FOF products a popular choice among investors, enhancing asset allocation efficiency and allowing managers to focus on asset management [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The FOF investment system is built on a localized all-weather strategy, supplemented by three enhancement strategies: asset allocation management, style and sector rotation, and alternative asset investment, aiming to provide long-term stable returns for investors [1][2][5]. - The FOF product is designed to help investors achieve sustainable profit, particularly for personal pension funds, emphasizing risk management and a focus on low volatility and steady returns [2][4]. Group 2: Asset Management Techniques - The strategy incorporates a classic all-weather approach, adapted to local conditions, which includes constructing macro scenarios based on economic growth and inflation, and optimizing asset allocation through risk parity [5][6]. - The three enhancement strategies include: 1. Equity and bond position management, utilizing a satellite monitoring system to adjust the portfolio based on economic fundamentals and market sentiment [6]. 2. Style rotation prioritized over sector rotation, with a focus on quantitative scoring to improve rotation success rates [6]. 3. Investment in alternative assets like gold and QDII to reduce portfolio volatility by diversifying with assets that have lower correlation to domestic markets [6]. Group 3: Risk Management - Emphasis is placed on controlling portfolio drawdown, with a focus on the maximum drawdown as a key indicator of risk management capability, as it reflects the management of unexpected risks [7]. - The selection of underlying assets for the FOF is rigorous, akin to clinical testing for pharmaceuticals, to maintain overall portfolio balance and minimize concentrated exposure to specific risks [7]. Group 4: New Product Launch - The new product, Huafu Chunxin Stable 3-Month Holding Period Mixed (ETF-FOF), managed by the investment department head, will officially launch on January 26, aiming to provide a long-term stable holding experience through the all-weather+ asset allocation strategy while strictly controlling drawdown [8].