廖市无双：补缺过后，大势结构如何演化？20250511 摘要 如何看待当前市场风险和机会？ 当前市场风险主要集中在尖峰筹码带形成的阻力区域，即 3,357 点附近。在此 区域内可能会有解套筹码涌出，对指数构成压力。同时，上证指数和恒生科技 指数均显示出需要进行回踩确认动作。例如，上证指数预计将在 3,040 至 3,357 点之间波动，而恒生科技从 6,185 跌至 4,300，下行深度较大，需要通 过 B 浪反弹确认 C 浪调整。 机会方面，由于人民币升值及港股表现对节后 A 股 走势产生积极影响，加之中美谈话利好叠加，使得近期市场表现较为强劲。投 资者可以关注短期内由于这些因素带来的交易机会，但需谨慎应对潜在阻力区 域及震荡行情。 本周市场出现了哪些显著变化？ 本周市场经历了显著的波动，尤其是周五出现了冲高回落的情况，这符合预期。 自 4 月 7 日以来，市场一直在反弹，但随着中美双方刚开始谈判，关税战仍在 持续，仅有沟通渠道，但结果尚不明确。在这种情况下，大盘已经转回，这是 一种非常强劲的表现。之前一些套牢筹码离场是可以理解的，因为劫后余生和 大的不确定性仍然存在。本周市场结构需要仔细分析。前两个交易日 ...

Group 1 - The market is expected to continue its oscillation in the short to medium term, with accelerated style rotation driven by monetary policy easing and strong export performance [1] - In May, a rotation pattern of "risk aversion - consumption - growth" may re-emerge, starting with technology growth stocks, followed by a shift towards defensive assets as macroeconomic risks increase [1] - The recovery of the consumption sector is anticipated after the defensive phase, supported by policy dividends and improving consumption data, leading to new investment opportunities driven by domestic demand [1] Group 2 - The market shows resilience due to dual drivers of policy support and economic recovery, despite short-term fluctuations in trading volume reflecting cautious sentiment [2] - The first quarter saw a positive turnaround in net profit growth for all A-shares, indicating improving corporate earnings and strengthening internal economic recovery [2] - The effects of monetary policy easing and long-term capital inflows are expected to enhance liquidity, supporting a continued recovery in consumption and investment sectors [2]

Market Overview - The market is experiencing a narrow fluctuation around the 3300-point level, with mysterious funds seemingly supporting the index, but unable to push it higher [1] - Recent trading volume has shown a decline to below 1 trillion, indicating low market sentiment, followed by a three-day increase back to above 1 trillion, but still struggling to gain momentum [1][2] - The upper resistance levels are identified at 3219 points and 3342 points, which need to be addressed for a smoother upward movement [1] Earnings Reports - Upcoming earnings reports are expected to be underwhelming, with no significant surprises, and some companies delaying their reports, creating a negative sentiment [2] - The market is currently waiting for a strong sector to drive overall market sentiment, as individual stocks are not moving in unison [1][2] Central Bank Actions - The central bank's recent MLF operation of 600 billion yuan is seen as an attempt to inject liquidity into the market, but has only resulted in minor market movements [2] - The lack of a unified market response indicates that opportunities are primarily in rapid sector rotations, making it challenging for retail investors [2]

宽幅震荡的重心上下飘忽不定，窄幅震荡的重心基本稳定。很多时候市场是先宽幅震荡，确定多空战场范围（区块），然后再逐渐缩敛窄幅震荡，能量聚 集，做选择方向前的准备。 ——笔记哥《交易》 【笔记20250401— "换券"小策略，螺蛳壳里做道场（-资金面偏紧-财新PMI略超预期-股市小幅上涨=小上)】 资金面偏紧转松，长债收益率小幅上行。 央行公开市场开展649亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有3779亿元逆回购到期，净回笼3130亿元。 月初资金面并未如期转松，隔夜资金价格仍偏贵，DR001在1.83%附近，尾盘转松。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 04. 01 ) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.92 | -88 | | 2. 78 | -522 ...