财信证券认为，周二，A股大盘全天弱势震荡，成交量缩量，反映出当前资金追高意愿有限，市场风险 偏好仍有待提升。不过三大指数仍然处于5日均线和10日均线之上，短期修复性行情未出现趋势性变 化。因此从当日走势来看，短期大盘暂时不具备连续放量上攻的动力，或将维持震荡反弹趋势。中期来 看，随着机构资金逐步开始布局2026年方向、美联储降息靴子落地、"AI投资泡沫"担忧阶段性消退，A 股市场或将迎来新一轮做多窗口期。 中原证券认为，周二，A股市场全天震荡走低。盘中船舶制造、医药商业、消费电子以及煤炭等行业表 现较好；贵金属、能源金属、生物制品以及软件开发等行业表现较弱。经过前期的快速波动之后，上周 A股市场逐步企稳回升。中长期看，支撑本轮A股上涨的基础并未发生转变。预计上证指数围绕4000点 附近蓄势整固的可能性较大，市场风格再平衡仍将延续，周期与科技有望轮番表现。 东莞证券认为，周二，A股全天震荡调整，三大指数集体下挫。海外方面，美国供应管理协会周一公布 的数据显示，全美制造业整体景气度进一步下滑，连续第九个月跌破荣枯线。A股市场方面，当前市场 整体呈现高位震荡调整格局，资金分歧有所加大，叠加国际局势不确定性和AI板块 ...

因此，在此类高热度发行环境下，投资者宜保持审慎，不仅不宜追高申购，反而可考虑适度赎回已有持仓——因该阶段往往对应市场阶段性高点。所谓"人 追我弃，人弃我取"，这一原则在以散户为主的A股市场中具有较强参考价值。由于散户行为易受群体情绪影响，形成"羊群效应"，当市场普遍乐观、资金 蜂拥入场时，反而需警惕风险积聚。目前基金发行虽有回暖，但整体规模仍有限，偶有个别产品募集规模达10亿甚至50亿元，但绝大多数基金单日募集金额 仅在1-2亿元左右。这表明市场情绪可能尚未高涨，距离牛市后期仍有距离，当前或仍处于慢牛行情的上半场。 近期，人民币汇率呈现持续升值态势，进一步推动国际资本流入人民币资产，助力相关资产估值修复。11月，美元兑人民币即期汇率累计升值约0.48%，11 月27日盘中最高触及7.0738，为自去年11月以来的一年多新高。人民币升值主要受两方面因素驱动：其一，美元指数持续走弱，带动非美货币普遍走强。当 前市场对美联储2024年12月降息的预期显著增强。美联储已于今年9月和10月各降息25个基点，若12月再度降息25个基点，联邦基金利率将降至 3.5%-3.75%，中美利差收窄，有助于支撑人民币汇率； 其二， ...

Core Viewpoint - The global markets faced pressure last week, leading to a general decline, but the investment portfolio maintained a controlled drop, ensuring a stable long-term return structure [1]. Market Summary - Major markets experienced a downturn, with A-shares falling by 3.26%, Hong Kong stocks down by 2.53%, and significant declines in Germany and Japan. The US market saw a slight increase of 0.3% [2]. - The overall market sentiment was weak, with various asset classes, including gold and government bonds, also experiencing declines [2]. Portfolio Performance - The investment strategy demonstrated resilience, with the "Rui Ding Tou Global Version" only declining by 0.51% during a week of significant A-share adjustments, maintaining a year-to-date return of 16.19% [7]. - Historical performance indicates that the portfolio achieved a return of 13.13% in 2023 and is projected to yield 7.87% in 2024, showcasing the long-term advantages of global diversification [7]. Investment Strategies - The "Lazy Balanced" strategy exhibited stability with a decline of 0.6% last week, yet it has achieved a return of 11.78% since 2025, reflecting its robust performance during market volatility due to a higher bond allocation [11]. - This strategy is recommended for investors seeking to reduce volatility and pursue long-term steady growth, complementing the global version for a more balanced risk structure [11]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations, and investors are advised to avoid chasing trends. The recent rebound in the Nasdaq indicates potential recovery opportunities [14]. - The investment team plans to continue optimizing asset allocation to deliver stable and sustainable returns in the future [27].

FICC日报 | 2025-11-27 通信行业继续领涨 市场分析 中外对话持续。对外方面，商务部部长王文涛与欧盟委员会贸易和经济安全委员谢夫乔维奇举行视频会谈，就安 世半导体等经贸问题深入交换意见。双方一致同意，企业是解决安世半导体问题的主体，将共同敦促安世荷兰与 安世中国尽快开展建设性沟通，找到长期解决方案，尽快恢复全球半导体产供链的畅通与稳定。双方还就中欧出 口管制等问题交换了意见。海外方面，美国上周初请失业金人数减少6000人至21.6万人，为4月中旬以来新低，低 于预期值22.5万人，此前一周的续申请失业金人数小幅上升至196万人。美国9月耐用品订单初值环比增0.5%，较前 值修正后的3%明显放缓。 指数冲高回落。现货市场，A股三大指数冲高回落，沪指跌0.15%收于3864.18点，创业板指涨2.14%。行业方面， 板块指数涨跌互现，通信、电子、商贸零售行业涨幅居前，国防军工、社会服务、传媒、石油石化行业跌幅居前。 当日沪深两市成交额为1.8万亿元。六部门联合发布《关于增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费的实施方案》，从 拓展增量、深挖存量、场景赋能等5方面部署19项重点任务，目标是到2027年，消费 ...

财信证券认为，周二，A股大盘延续了反弹势头，同时成交额实现小幅放量，市场情绪有所转暖，但目 前仍以超跌修复看待，主要有以下两点原因：一是从技术面看，尽管连续两个交易日上涨，但大盘在价 的方面仍未修复上周五的跌幅，量的方面也未能超过周五的成交额；二是从市场环境看，海外流动性趋 紧预期以及地缘政治风险或仍有反复，可能对市场情绪持续形成压制，影响增量资金入场意愿。因此短 期内，随着连续反弹后，大盘逐步接近压力位，若要扭转当前势头还是需要放量长阳来确认。预计12月 中旬左右，随着机构资金重新布局明年方向、美联储降息靴子落地，届时A股市场将迎来新一轮做多窗 口期。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 中原证券认为，周二，A股市场高开高走、小幅震荡上行。盘中通信设备、电子元件、游戏以及半导体 等行业表现较好；船舶制造、航空机场、农牧饲渔、航天航空等行业表现较弱。上周受到美联储降息预 期出现反复，年底部分机构投资者选择锁定年度收益和排名，市场波动有所加大。但中长期看，支撑本 轮A股上涨的基础并未发生转变。预计上证指数围绕4000点附近蓄势整固的可能性较大，市场风格再平 衡仍将延续，周期与科技有望轮番表现。 湘财证券认为，2025年以 ...

上周五啊，大A是把很多人都吓坏了。 甚至很多人一周的亏损已经把过去的收益都给埋掉了。 那和收益一起埋掉的，还有大家的信心。 对于牛市到底还在不在的信息，都不确定了。 我看了很多评论啊，都是韭菜论，说自己是彻底当了一轮金融消费者。 然后本周2天时间呢，相信大家又感受到亏进去的钱，好像慢慢又回来一点的。 所以这段时间，大家的心情就像是过山车。 情绪被收益牵着走，理智又被情绪牵着走。 我觉得大家还是稍微静下来，思考。 到底有没有慢牛行情、以及，为啥很多人在慢牛行情里面，其实是没赚到钱的。 首先，慢牛行情这个不是我说的。 之前的高盛都出来站台，说未来大A还能再涨30%。 但大家纠结的点是什么呢？ 都说是慢牛吧，但大家都没怎么赚到钱。 为什么美国的股市，长期慢牛，大部分人普通人都吃到肉，赚到钱了。 可偏偏我们的慢牛，却没有赚到钱呢。 还有一个点啊，很多人就不怎么理性的。 说，既然是慢牛，为什么周五还跌了快100个点。 朋友们， 慢牛=不跌吗？ 美国几十年的慢牛，难道中间一点都不跌吗？ 其次， 跌=牛没了吗？ 我觉得这两个事情，大家考虑清楚，估计也就不会那么焦虑了。 而且，老板想要的慢牛，可能和我们要的慢牛，不是同一个东 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the recent decline in Hong Kong stocks, particularly the Hang Seng Technology Index, which fell by 5.1% and the Hang Seng Index by 7.2%, reflects a state of market panic, suggesting a potential opportunity for investment [2][6][7] - The Fear and Greed Index for both the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng Index is currently at historical lows, indicating a possible short-term recovery in market sentiment [7][8] Market Analysis - The decline in the Hong Kong market is attributed to several factors: 1. Unexpected growth in U.S. employment numbers alongside a rise in the unemployment rate to a four-year high, leading to uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [7] 2. Concerns over high asset prices potentially leading to market corrections, which has dampened trading sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region [7] - The report notes that the technology sector has been particularly hard hit, with the Hang Seng Technology Index underperforming compared to other indices [7] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a "slow bull" market trend due to: 1. The onset of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, which may lead to a more accommodative global liquidity environment [8] 2. Continuous support for the domestic technology sector through policy initiatives, which could attract long-term capital and enhance market activity [8] - Investment strategies suggested include: 1. Focusing on emerging technology sectors such as AI and robotics, which are at a critical commercialization phase [8] 2. Identifying scarce resources that may benefit from valuation premiums due to shifts in energy transition and geopolitical factors [8] 3. Monitoring sectors like insurance and brokerage, which may see increased activity as low-interest rates encourage more equity investments [8]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 2.38% to 25,220.02, and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 3.21% to 5,395.49, reflecting a broader market adjustment influenced by tightening liquidity expectations in the U.S. [5][9] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September showed mixed results, with an addition of 119,000 jobs, which was above expectations but still at a low level, leading to a decrease in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December to 33.1% [9][5] - The AI industry chain's pullback in the U.S. has negatively impacted Hong Kong's hard tech sector, particularly the semiconductor sector, which saw significant declines [9][5] Market Performance - On November 21, 2025, the total trading volume in the Hong Kong market reached HKD 285.7 billion, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to HKD 10.5 million [2][9] - The major indices in the A-share market also experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 2.45% and the CSI 300 down by 2.44% [5][9] - The sector performance showed that all primary sectors under the CITIC Hong Kong Stock Connect Index declined, with steel (-6.39%), non-ferrous metals (-4.39%), and retail (-4.26%) leading the losses [5][9] Industry Outlook - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, indicating a potential "slow bull" market as it awaits renewed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and clarity in AI long-term narratives [9] - The focus for medium to long-term investments should shift towards sectors driven by new productive forces, including AI and robotics, which are at a critical stage of commercialization [9] - The report highlights four key investment directions: 1) Quality supply creating new demand, 2) Re-evaluation of scarce resources driven by energy transition and geopolitical factors, 3) Recovery from excess capacity in industries like photovoltaics and chemicals, and 4) Benefits to financial markets from increased market activity and low-interest environments [9]

上周五啊，大A是把很多人都吓坏了。 甚至很多人一周的亏损已经把过去的收益都给埋掉了。 那和收益一起埋掉的，还有大家的信心。 对于牛市到底还在不在的信息，都不确定了。 我看了很多评论啊，都是韭菜论，说自己是彻底当了一轮金融消费者。 我今天就想和大家唠唠关于这个牛到底还有没有，还在不在的问题啊。 首先，慢牛行情这个不是我说的。 之前的高盛都出来站台，说未来大A还能再涨30%。 大宗主要受供需关系影响，也受美联储降息影响，那如何去布局呢等等 总之啊，其实资产的知识点和概念很多，但很难一次性说完，我们都放在青麦会员课上了。 对了，成为我们的会员，我们还有一个隐藏的福利。 如果突然遇到什么大的事件，我们会给会员加餐录解读的。 昨天全球股票市场下跌，我们老师马上就录了一条解读，告诉大家为什么，以及我们可以怎么去应对。 这都属于我们会员的福利。 所以大家认可，我不想做短线，想真正做长线配置，又想相对稳稳吃肉，也想把真正的一些资产逻辑学到，你们可以拍下我们的青麦会员课—季卡。 因为这个价格，我们可能会随时调价，一杯咖啡钱，但你收获的绝对非常多 但大家纠结的点是什么呢？ 都说是慢牛吧，但大家都没怎么赚到钱。 为什么美国的股市， ...

Market Overview - The stock indices experienced a general decline this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3834.89 points, down 3.9%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 12538.07 points, down 5.13% [2][9] - Total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 9.23 trillion yuan, with the Shanghai market accounting for 3.85 trillion yuan and the Shenzhen market 5.38 trillion yuan [2] ETF Fund Flows - A total net inflow of 701.21 billion yuan was recorded for stock ETFs and cross-border ETFs this week, with broad-based index ETFs seeing a net inflow of 359 billion yuan [2][6] - The ten largest broad-based index ETFs collectively saw a net inflow of 223.26 billion yuan, with the CSI 500 ETF receiving 57.78 billion yuan and both the ChiNext ETF and the CSI 300 ETF each receiving over 44 billion yuan [6][7] Sector Performance - In terms of sector-specific ETFs, artificial intelligence and robotics ETFs attracted significant capital, while bank and chemical-related ETFs faced substantial sell-offs [1][11] - Notably, the CSI 500 ETF had a net inflow of 64.29 billion yuan, and both the Sci-Tech 50 and ChiNext indices saw net inflows exceeding 55 billion yuan [7] Notable ETFs - The Southern ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF saw a substantial increase in shares, with a net inflow of 13.96 billion yuan and a total of 7.81 billion shares added [11][14] - The Robotics ETF also experienced strong demand, with a net inflow of 13.46 billion yuan and shares surpassing 253 billion, marking a new high since its launch [16][18] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent market fluctuations have sufficiently digested uncertainties, indicating limited downside potential for indices in the near term [9] - The ongoing global enthusiasm for technology investments, along with supportive policies and increased retail participation, is expected to sustain a slow bull market in A-shares [9][21] Upcoming ETFs - Five new ETFs are set to launch next week, focusing on sectors such as chemicals, home appliances, and Hong Kong stocks [22][23]