Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [3][5]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the current policy environment is being driven by fundamental pressures, suggesting that the policy response may exceed the levels seen in 2008 and 2014, and is still evolving [3]. - Real estate is identified as an early-cycle indicator, serving as a barometer for economic trends, making it a strategic investment focus [3]. - The competitive landscape within the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private firms performing well in land acquisition and sales [3]. - The report continues to favor investment in first-tier cities and two-thirds of second-tier cities, as this combination has shown better performance during sales rebounds [3]. - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are highlighted as critical areas to monitor, with first and second-tier cities expected to benefit more from these changes [3]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Development - The 5-year LPR remains stable at 3.5% as of August, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% [10]. - The real estate index saw a cumulative change of 0.5%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 3.68 percentage points, ranking last among 31 sectors [13]. - New home sales in 30 cities totaled 1.57 million square meters, a 16.7% increase month-on-month but a 16.1% decrease year-on-year [20]. - Year-to-date, new home sales in the same 30 cities are down 2.1% year-on-year, with first-tier cities showing a 2.4% increase [25]. Secondary Housing - Secondary home sales in 14 sample cities reached 1.915 million square meters, reflecting a 6.4% month-on-month increase and a 9.5% year-on-year increase [30]. - Cumulative secondary home sales for the year are 6.8677 million square meters, up 16.7% year-on-year [30]. Credit Bonds - In the week of August 18-24, 18 credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 15.282 billion yuan, an increase of 6.921 billion yuan from the previous week [39]. - The net financing amount was 3.378 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase [39].

（文章来源：第一财经） 据外媒报道，韩国将禁止无居留权的外国人在首尔购房。 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The economic data for July 2025 shows that the industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 6.0% and previous value of 6.8% [3] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year, below the expected 4.6% and previous value of 4.8% [4] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth is at 1.6%, also below expectations [4] Company Research: Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. (603799) - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 37.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.711 billion yuan, up 62.26% [15] - Nickel product shipments increased significantly, with nickel product output reaching 139,400 tons, a year-on-year growth of 83.91% [16] - The company has made significant progress in cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a sales net profit margin of 9.33%, an increase of 1.44 percentage points year-on-year [16] Industry Research: Metal Industry - Frequent bidding by major magnetic material manufacturers is expected to boost the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide [10] - The steel industry is facing supply constraints due to tightened production policies, but demand may be impacted by construction site shutdowns [11] - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate due to insufficient fundamental support, with potential demand driven by seasonal inventory accumulation [11] - The rare earth market is seeing improved inquiry conditions, with light rare earth prices expected to be supported in the short term [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that new home prices have seen a smaller decline compared to second-hand homes, with a national average drop of 10.8% from the 2021 peak and a 2.0% decline from the 2024 "930" benchmark [11][12]. - The second-hand home market is facing more significant challenges, with prices down 18.7% from the 2021 peak and 3.8% from the 2024 "930" benchmark, indicating a more pessimistic outlook for many cities [12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy changes and their impact on the market, suggesting that the real estate sector serves as an economic barometer [4]. Summary by Sections National Housing Price Overview - As of July, new home prices in 70 cities have decreased by 10.8% from the 2021 peak, with Shanghai showing the strongest performance [11]. - Second-hand home prices have nearly erased the slight gains made since last year, with many cities falling below the "930" benchmark [12]. Transaction Trends - In the latest week, new home sales across 30 cities totaled 132.7 million square meters, reflecting a 9.6% increase month-on-month but a 12.8% decrease year-on-year [27]. - Second-hand home transactions in 14 sample cities reached 178.7 million square meters, up 3.8% from the previous week but down 2.8% year-on-year [35]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks, particularly those with strong fundamentals and those benefiting from policy changes, including companies like Greentown China and China Overseas Development [4]. - The report advocates for a city selection strategy that favors first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better sales performance [4].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that in July, the sales prices of commercial residential properties in major cities showed a month-on-month decline, but the year-on-year decline has narrowed overall [1][5]. Price Trends - In July, the new commercial residential property sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. Beijing remained flat, while Shanghai increased by 0.3%, and Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased by 0.3% and 0.6%, respectively [1]. - The new commercial residential property sales prices in second-tier cities fell by 0.4% month-on-month, with the decline expanding by 0.2 percentage points. Third-tier cities also saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.3%, with the decline remaining the same as the previous month [1]. - The second-hand residential property sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 1.0% month-on-month, with the decline expanding by 0.3 percentage points. Specifically, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw decreases of 1.1%, 0.9%, 1.0%, and 0.9%, respectively [1]. - Second and third-tier cities experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.5% in second-hand residential property sales prices, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points [1]. Year-on-Year Changes - Year-on-year, the new commercial residential property sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 1.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month. Second and third-tier cities saw year-on-year declines of 2.8% and 4.2%, respectively, with declines narrowing by 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points [5]. - The second-hand residential property sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.4 percentage points. Second and third-tier cities experienced year-on-year declines of 5.6% and 6.4%, with declines narrowing by 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively [5]. Future Outlook - The China Index Academy suggests that as the macroeconomic and real estate market conditions evolve, there is still room for policy enhancement. The core goal of current real estate policies is to stabilize the market and prevent further declines, with a focus on effective implementation of existing policies such as urban village renovations and special bond storage [5]. - Urban renewal has become a key focus for promoting high-quality urban development, and supporting policies are expected to accelerate implementation in the real estate sector [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6]. Core Insights - The recent policy changes in Beijing, which relax restrictions on home purchases outside the Fifth Ring Road, are expected to aid in inventory reduction in suburban areas, although the overall impact may be limited [11][12]. - The real estate sector is viewed as an early economic indicator, making it a key focus for investment [4]. - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select private firms expected to benefit more in the future [4]. - The report emphasizes a focus on first-tier and select second-tier cities for investment opportunities, as this combination has shown better performance during market rebounds [4]. - Supply-side policies, including land management and disposal of idle land, are critical areas to monitor for future developments [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Changes - Beijing's new policy allows residents with two years of social security contributions to purchase homes without quantity restrictions outside the Fifth Ring Road, differing from other cities that have fully lifted purchase limits [11][12]. 2. Market Review - The real estate index increased by 2.2% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.93 percentage points, ranking 16th among 31 sectors [2][13]. - New home sales in 30 cities totaled 120.5 million square meters, down 35.0% month-on-month and 19.3% year-on-year [22]. - Second-hand home sales in 14 cities totaled 171.1 million square meters, down 7.2% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year [32]. 3. Credit Market - A total of 22 corporate bonds were issued this week, raising 228.70 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of 159.94 billion yuan [3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals, including both H-shares and A-shares, as well as local state-owned enterprises and property management firms [4].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 122 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on August 8, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4 billion yuan due to 126 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - In the week, the People's Bank of China performed a total of 1,126.7 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 1,663.2 billion yuan maturing, leading to a net withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for short-term products remained stable, with the overnight Shibor down by 0.06 basis points to 1.3144%, while the 7-day Shibor increased by 0.16 basis points to 1.4356% [1][2] Group 2 - In the interbank pledged repo market, short-term funding rates were mostly unchanged from the previous day, with DR001 and R001 weighted average rates decreasing by 0.3 basis points and 0.9 basis points, respectively [6] - The weighted average rates for DR007 and R007 fell by 2.6 basis points and 2.7 basis points, respectively, with transaction volumes increasing [6] - The market showed a relaxed funding environment on August 8, with overnight lending rates around 1.30% and deposit rates for certificates of deposit ranging from 1.35% to 1.38% [11] Group 3 - On August 8, a total of 148 interbank certificates of deposit were issued, with an actual issuance volume of 274.11 billion yuan [12] - The primary market for certificates of deposit continued to show strong demand, while the secondary market exhibited fluctuations with slight declines in yield rates [12] - The 1-month national bank certificate of deposit closed at 1.46%, down approximately 2.5 basis points from the previous day [12]

Core Viewpoints - In July, the issuance guidance rates for all maturities declined, with an overall change of -20 BP to -1 BP. The issuance scale of credit bonds slightly decreased month-on-month, with corporate bonds, medium-term notes, and directed tools seeing a decrease, while enterprise bonds and short-term financing bonds increased [2] - The net financing amount of credit bonds increased month-on-month, with medium-term notes seeing a decrease. Other varieties showed an increase, with corporate bonds, medium-term notes, and short-term financing bonds having positive net financing amounts [2] - In the secondary market, the transaction scale of credit bonds increased month-on-month, while the transaction amounts of enterprise bonds and directed tools decreased. The yield of credit bonds showed a fluctuating trend, with the monthly average lower than June [2] - The credit spread showed a similar trend to yields, initially narrowing, then widening, and finally narrowing again. Most varieties of medium-term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds saw a month-on-month narrowing of credit spreads [2] - From an absolute return perspective, insufficient supply and relatively strong allocation demand continue to support the strengthening of credit bonds. Despite inevitable fluctuations due to various factors, the long-term yield is expected to remain in a downward channel, making it feasible to increase allocations during adjustments [2] Industry Insights - The real estate market is undergoing adjustments, but with the implementation of policies to stabilize the market, it is moving towards stabilization. The recovery in sales will significantly impact bond valuations, and funds with higher risk tolerance may consider early positioning [3] - The focus for allocation remains on historically stable, high-performing central and state-owned enterprises, as well as high-quality private enterprise bonds with strong guarantees. This strategy aims to extend duration and enhance returns while also considering trading opportunities from undervalued real estate enterprise bonds [3] - Urban investment bonds are still a key allocation variety under the backdrop of stabilizing growth and preventing systemic risks, with a low likelihood of defaults. However, attention should be paid to potential valuation fluctuations during the acceleration of urban investment platform clean-up and transformation [3]

Market Overview - The market indices mostly declined, with the CSI 100 experiencing a significant drop of -2.15%[28] - The average daily trading volume of the Wind All A index decreased to 18,096.34 billion CNY, down from 18,486.97 billion CNY, indicating a historical high position at the 93.40% percentile over the past three years[43][46] Economic Policy Insights - The Politburo meeting on July 30 conveyed a more optimistic economic outlook, emphasizing "steady progress" and the need for proactive fiscal policies[11] - The meeting highlighted the importance of enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market, focusing on long-term competitiveness rather than short-term stability[11] Sector Performance - The healthcare index and information technology index showed relative strength, with weekly gains of 2.65% and 0.71%, respectively[31] - The real estate index and energy index underperformed, with declines of -3.57% and -3.49% respectively[31] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining investment in technology sectors (AI, robotics) and utility sectors, as well as brokerage firms, reflecting a shift from cyclical to innovation-driven market dynamics[18][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [5][37] Core Viewpoints - The market heat has declined in July, with sales showing a significant year-on-year drop, reaching a six-year low for the same period [1][14] - The sales performance of top real estate companies varies, with some showing stability while others experience significant declines [4][33] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy-driven market dynamics and suggests that 2025 will be dominated by policy influences [5][37] Summary by Sections July Market Performance - In July, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales amount of 211.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 37.7% [1][14] - From January to July, the top 100 companies recorded a total sales amount of 1.8639 trillion yuan, down 12.5% year-on-year [1][14] Sales by Company Tier - The sales decline is observed across all tiers, with the smallest drop in the TOP21-30 tier at 6.3% year-on-year, while the TOP10 tier saw a decline of 14.9% [2][16] - The sales threshold for the top 100 companies decreased significantly, with the threshold for the top 10 dropping from 52.65 billion yuan to 49.16 billion yuan, a decline of 6.6% [3][28] Performance of Leading Companies - Some leading state-owned and benchmark private enterprises showed stable sales, with Yuexiu Property achieving a year-on-year growth of 12.6% in July [4][33] - Among the top 40 companies, 11 reported positive year-on-year growth in July, with the best performer being Bangtai Group at 82.6% [4][33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks due to several reasons, including the expectation of stronger policy support compared to previous years and the potential for quality companies to benefit from improved competitive dynamics [5][37] - Recommended stocks include Green Town China, China Overseas Development, and Poly Development among others [5][37]