Group 1: Hot News - The People's Bank of China announced on May 7th to cut the deposit - reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, providing about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity to the market, and lower the deposit - reserve ratio of auto finance companies and financial leasing companies from 5% to 0% [2] - The PBOC decided to cut the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points starting from May 8th, 2025 [2] - The PBOC decided to cut the re - loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points starting from May 7th, 2025 [2] - Vice - Premier He Lifeng will visit Switzerland from May 9th - 12th and hold talks with the US side. The talks are held at the US request, and China's stance against US tariff abuse remains unchanged [3] - The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, in line with market expectations. Traders still expect three rate cuts this year [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on: glass, soda ash, asphalt, coking coal, urea [4] - Night - session performance: non - metallic building materials rose 2.58%, precious metals rose 31.40%, oilseeds and oils rose 11.78%, soft commodities rose 2.71%, non - ferrous metals rose 19.66%, coal - coking - steel - minerals rose 12.63%, energy rose 2.51%, chemicals rose 12.07%, grains rose 1.85%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.81% [4] Group 3: Asset Performance - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.80% daily, 1.94% monthly, and - 0.27% year - to - date; S&P 500 rose 0.43% daily, 1.12% monthly, and - 4.26% year - to - date; Hang Seng Index rose 0.13% daily, 2.59% monthly, and 13.12% year - to - date [7] - Fixed - income: 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.19% daily, - 0.14% monthly, and - 0.07% year - to - date; 5 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.08% daily, - 0.10% monthly, and - 0.51% year - to - date [7] - Commodities: CRB commodity index fell 0.85% daily, 0.34% monthly, and - 2.35% year - to - date; WTI crude oil fell 1.84% daily, - 0.33% monthly, and - 19.35% year - to - date; London spot gold fell 1.95% daily, 2.31% monthly, and 28.20% year - to - date [7] - Others: US dollar index was flat daily, - 0.38% monthly, and - 8.50% year - to - date; CBOE volatility was flat daily, 0.24% monthly, and 42.71% year - to - date [7]

5月7日，中国人民银行宣布推出一揽子货币政策措施，旨在稳定市场预期和提振经济活力。其中，公开市场7天期逆回购操作 利率将于5月8日起由1.50%调整为1.40%，下降幅度为0.1个百分点。 7天逆回购操作利率是央行政策利率之一。目前我国市场基准利率以政策利率为中枢运行，并通过银行体系传导至贷款利率。 这也意味着，在本次降息后，包括个人住房按揭贷款在内的银行贷款利率，乃至多层次的市场主体融资成本都会进一步下降。 值得注意的是，商业银行维持稳健经营、防范金融风险，需要保持合理利润和净息差水平。在政策利率下行背景下，商业银行 净息差目前已降至历史最低水平，截至去年四季度末为1.52%。 调降存款利率是商业银行维持合理净息差水平的方式之一。金融监管政策专家周毅钦对《每日经济新闻》记者表示，此次降息 后，存款利率仍有下降空间，以维持净息差水平。此外，考虑到当前经济形势、中美贸易关系和货币政策目标，预计今年在必 要时，政策利率仍存在进一步下行的可能性。 历年来7天期逆回购操作利率走势 降低政策利率0.1个百分点，预计带动LPR同幅度下行 5月7日早间，中国人民银行发布公开市场业务公告(2025)第1号。 公告显示，为实施 ...

央行行长潘功胜：降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点 预计向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元 智通财经5月7日电，中国人民银行行长潘功胜5月7日在参加国新办新闻发布会时表示，降低存款准备金 率0.5个百分点，预计向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元。下调政策利率0.1个百分点，即公开市场7天期 逆回购操作利率从目前的1.5%调降至1.4%，预计将带动贷款市场报价利率（LPR）同步下行约0.1个百 分点。 ...

潘功胜：降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点，预计向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿。下调政策利率0.1个百分 点，从目前的1.5%下调到1.4%。 ...

来源|中国证券报 4月21日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布， 2025年4月21日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.1%，5年期以上LPR为 3.6%，均较上期维持不变。 这是LPR连续六个月"按兵不动"。 图片来源：中国货币网 业内普遍认为，本月LPR保持不变，符合市场预期。一方面，7天期逆回购利率保持稳定，作为LPR报价的定价基础，其稳定很大程度上预示LPR会 保持不变；另一方面，银行净息差仍处在低位，缺乏下调LPR报价加点的动力。 从经济基本面看，经济保持向好态势，LPR下行迫切性不强。 "年初以来LPR持续保持不变，根本上是因为一季度经济走势偏强，LPR下行的迫切性 不强。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青说。 从利率角度看，当前无论是企业贷款利率还是个人贷款利率都处于低位。 央行数据显示，3月份，企业新发放贷款（本外币）加权平均利率约为 3.3%，比上年同期低约45个基点；个人住房新发放贷款（本外币）加权平均利率约为3.1%，比上年同期低约60个基点。 往后看，LPR仍有下行空间。 民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示，在外部不确定性上升、内部政策效果处于观察期等情况下，央行货币调控" ...

韩国央行行长李昌镛：将在5月评估政策利率是否需要在年底前低于2.25%。 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan has maintained its policy interest rate at 0.5%, while the Swiss National Bank has lowered its policy interest rate to 0.25%, marking a reversal in their interest rate positions for the first time in over two and a half years [1][2] - The change in interest rates is expected to weaken "yen carry trades," which involve borrowing in low-interest yen to invest in higher-yielding assets, thus reducing the pressure on the yen's depreciation [1][2] - As of March 21, the yen was trading around 149 yen to the dollar, with fewer expectations of one-sided depreciation, reflecting the shift in Japan's policy stance [1] Group 2 - The Swiss National Bank's decision to cut rates is attributed to decreasing inflationary pressures, marking the fifth consecutive meeting where rates have been lowered [2] - The reversal in interest rates has made it more challenging for carry trades, which previously relied on Japan's low rates, to continue, potentially stabilizing the yen [2][3] - Speculation has arisen regarding the Swiss National Bank's potential halt in rate cuts, while strong sentiment exists that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise rates, widening the policy rate gap between the two countries [3] Group 3 - Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission indicates that speculative net short positions in the yen reached their highest level since June 2007, reflecting the dynamics of yen carry trades [3] - Market analysts predict that if exchange rate volatility remains low, the Swiss franc may become a more attractive currency for carry trades, diminishing the dominance of yen carry trades [4] - Despite the potential for reduced selling pressure on the yen, actual interest rates remain significantly negative, complicating expectations for yen appreciation [4]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a shift in the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) from a single rate bidding to a multiple price bidding system, indicating a move to downplay the significance of the MLF policy rate and emphasize the reverse repo rate as the primary policy rate [1][3]. Group 1: MLF Reform - The MLF will now adopt a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bidding approach starting from March 2025, with an operation of 4,500 billion yuan for a one-year term [2]. - This reform is seen as a continuation of the PBOC's strategy to reduce the prominence of the MLF policy rate, aligning it more closely with the reverse repo rate [3][4]. - The historical context shows that the PBOC has been gradually shifting towards using the reverse repo rate as the main policy rate since mid-2024 [3]. Group 2: Impact on Bank Funding Costs - The change to multiple price bidding may lead to a decrease in the MLF rate, thereby lowering banks' funding costs [4]. - Currently, the one-year AAA interbank certificate of deposit rate is approximately 1.92%, which is lower than the MLF rate of 2.0% as of February 2025, suggesting potential for further reductions in MLF rates [4]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC has enhanced its liquidity provision tools, including MLF, reverse repos, and government bond transactions, to cover various timeframes [5]. - MLF and reverse repos are both fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bidding operations, with MLF having a one-year term and reverse repos having three and six-month terms [5]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - If economic momentum weakens due to factors like tariffs in the second quarter, the PBOC may consider lowering reserve requirements and interest rates to support economic growth [7]. - The PBOC's first-quarter monetary policy meeting indicated a readiness to adjust reserve requirements and interest rates based on domestic and international economic conditions [7].

近期，野村日本首席经济学家森田京平博士就日本央行政策发表最新观点，主要观点摘要如下。 森田京平 野村日本首席经济学家 在第一种风险情景中，我们认为下一次加息将推迟到2025年9月。假设在这种情景下，一旦政策利率达到 1%，日本央行就会暂停加息。 在近日结束的货币政策会议上，日本央行宣布维持政策利率不变，并表示将"鼓励无担保隔夜拆借利率保 持在0.5%左右"。这一决策在意料之中，符合市场普遍预期。 同样，日本央行也并未对经济展望和物价预期做出任何调整。 日本央行似乎也开始担忧美国上调关税可能对经济增长和物价产生的直接和间接影响，以及关税上调造 成的不确定性可能对市场情绪带来的打击。 主要预测情景分析和两种风险情景分析 日本央行能否尽快得出"薪资和物价之间的良性循环正在形成"的结论，或者是否需要更长时间得出此项 结论，这在很大程度上取决于近期的一些相关数据和热点事件。基于此，我们列出了以下三种可能发生 的情景。 主要预测情景分析 我们的主要预测仍是日本央行将于2025年7月进行下一次加息，并于2026年1月再次加息。我们预计，这 将使政策利率从目前的0.5%上升到1.0%，而后日本央行将保持观望态度。 鉴于特朗普 ...