Core Insights - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to China's GDP growth in the first half of the year, highlighting its role as the main driver of growth [1] - The consumption reports from 31 provinces indicate the initial effectiveness of strategies aimed at expanding domestic demand [1] Consumption Growth - The top ten provinces by total retail sales of consumer goods (社消零) in the first half of the year are Jiangsu, Guangdong, Shandong, Zhejiang, Henan, Sichuan, Hubei, Fujian, Anhui, and Hunan, with Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Shandong exceeding 2 trillion yuan [1][5] - 19 provinces outperformed the national retail sales growth rate of 5%, with 11 provinces achieving growth rates of at least 6%, led by Hainan at 11.2% [1][5] - Hainan's total retail sales reached 1329.89 billion yuan, growing 11.2% year-on-year, with significant growth in automobile sales, particularly in new energy vehicles [5][6] Regional Performance - Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Shandong are the top three provinces in retail sales, with Jiangsu leading at 23949 billion yuan, followed by Guangdong at 22932.66 billion yuan and Shandong at 20142.1 billion yuan [5][6] - The rankings of the top ten consumption provinces have shifted, with Fujian surpassing Anhui to become the eighth largest [6] Consumption Drivers - The main drivers of consumption growth include trade-in policies and the rise of online shopping, with structural factors such as effective domestic demand policies and rapid growth in e-commerce playing significant roles [9][10] - In Fujian, the implementation of trade-in policies and online consumption led to a total retail sales figure of 12560.88 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6% [10] Future Outlook - The second half of the year is expected to focus on emerging consumption and service consumption, with many provinces planning to enhance trade-in policies and promote service consumption activities [2][11] - The government plans to increase fiscal support for trade-in subsidies to 300 billion yuan, potentially driving an additional 2 trillion yuan in consumption [11] Service Consumption Trends - New consumption hotspots are emerging, particularly in technology and high-quality exhibitions, which are expected to drive service consumption [12][13] - Various provinces are implementing specific actions to enhance service consumption, including cultural tourism and sports events [13][14]

高瑞东表示，提振消费需要在供需两端协同发力。本次针对个人消费贷款与服务业经营主体实施贷款贴 息政策，正是供需两端协同发力的具体表现。一方面，对个人消费贷款贴息，有助于减轻居民信贷成 本，提升居民消费意愿和能力；另一方面，服务业经营主体作为消费服务和场景提供者，减轻其融资成 本，能够激发服务业主体扩大生产经营的动力，为提供高质量的消费服务创造条件。 高瑞东认为，扩大服务消费对于当前稳就业稳经济意义重大。服务消费具有本地化、即时性、消费频次 高的特征。从发展阶段来看，当前我国消费结构正从商品消费主导向服务消费主导加速转变，服务消费 发展空间较大，将成为未来扩内需的重要抓手；服务业是我国吸纳就业的主体，扩大服务消费对于稳就 业具有更强的带动作用，从而畅通"就业—收入—消费"的良性循环。 "本次出台针对性支持举措，有助于推动优化和扩大服务消费供给，更好满足居民个性化、多样化、品 质化的服务消费需求。"高瑞东说。 转自：中国证券报·中证网 中证报中证网讯（记者 昝秀丽）光大证券首席经济学家高瑞东在接受中国证券报记者采访时表示，个 人消费贷款贴息政策与服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策，是财政金融联动在扩消费领域的重要体现，有助 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant contribution of domestic consumption to China's GDP growth, with a focus on the performance of various provinces in the first half of the year and the strategies being implemented to further stimulate consumption [3][4]. Group 1: Consumption Growth and Provincial Performance - In the first half of the year, domestic consumption contributed 68.8% to China's GDP growth, making it the main driver of growth [3]. - The top ten provinces by total retail sales of consumer goods (社消零) are Jiangsu, Guangdong, Shandong, Zhejiang, Henan, Sichuan, Hubei, Fujian, Anhui, and Hunan, with Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Shandong exceeding 2 trillion yuan [3][6]. - Nineteen provinces outperformed the national retail sales growth rate of 5%, with eleven provinces achieving growth rates of at least 6%, led by Hainan at 11.2% [6][4]. Group 2: Consumption Policies and Future Outlook - The central government emphasizes the need to enhance the endogenous power of consumption and effectively release domestic demand potential as a key task for the second half of the year [4]. - New consumption and service consumption are expected to be focal points for expanding domestic demand, with various provinces planning to implement policies to stimulate consumption in sectors like dining and tourism [4][12]. - The "old for new" policy and online consumption are identified as major drivers of consumption growth, with significant increases in retail sales for home appliances and new energy vehicles in provinces like Fujian and Hainan [11][12]. Group 3: Income Levels and Consumption Patterns - In the first half of the year, eleven provinces had a per capita disposable income exceeding 20,000 yuan, with Shanghai and Beijing leading at over 45,000 yuan [8][9]. - The article notes a shift in consumption potential from first-tier cities to central and western provinces, where residents are more willing to spend under the current consumption stimulus policies [9][10]. Group 4: Emerging Consumption Trends - The article discusses the rise of new consumption hotspots, particularly in technology and service sectors, with events like the World Artificial Intelligence Conference showcasing innovative products that attract consumer interest [14][15]. - Provinces are focusing on enhancing service consumption through various initiatives, including cultural tourism and sports events, to stimulate economic activity [15][16].

数据显示，今年上半年社会消费品零售总额中商品零售累计增长5.1%，高于去年全年的3.2%；而服务 零售额累计增长5.3%，低于去年全年的6.2%。由此可以看出，相较于商品消费，服务消费的增长略显 疲态。 7月30日召开的中央政治局会议强调，要有效释放内需潜力。深入实施提振消费专项行动，在扩大商品 消费的同时，培育服务消费新的增长点。 高瑞东表示，扩大服务消费对于当前稳就业稳经济意义重大。一是，服务消费具有本地化、即时性、消 费频次高的特征，既能够弥补商品消费持续补贴后带来的透支效应，也能够对冲外需回落的潜在压力。 二是，从发展阶段来看，当前我国消费结构正从商品消费主导向服务消费主导加速转变，服务消费发展 空间较大，将成为未来扩内需的重要抓手。三是，服务业是我国吸纳就业的主体，如餐饮住宿、批发零 售、文化旅游等行业都是劳动密集型行业，扩大服务消费对于稳就业具有更强的带动作用，从而畅 通"就业—收入—消费"的良性循环。 7月31日召开的国务院常务会议部署实施个人消费贷款贴息政策与服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策。光大 证券首席经济学家高瑞东在接受证券时报记者采访时表示，上述两项贷款贴息政策进一步从供需两端协 同提振消费 ...

Group 1: Economic Contribution and Consumer Growth - In the first half of the year, domestic demand contributed 68.8% to China's GDP growth, making it the main driving force for growth [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in the top ten provinces were led by Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Shandong, each exceeding 2 trillion yuan [3][4] - 19 provinces outperformed the national retail sales growth rate of 5%, with Hainan leading at 11.2% [1][3] Group 2: Consumer Income and Spending Patterns - In the first half of the year, 11 provinces had a per capita disposable income exceeding 20,000 yuan, with Shanghai and Beijing surpassing 45,000 yuan [5][6] - The trend shows a shift in consumption potential from first-tier cities to central and western provinces, indicating a decrease in marginal consumption propensity in major cities [7] Group 3: Policy and Market Dynamics - Policies such as "old for new" and online consumption have been significant drivers of growth, with a notable increase in retail sales in provinces like Fujian [8][9] - The government plans to continue promoting consumption through various initiatives, including expanding the "old for new" policy and enhancing service consumption [9][12] Group 4: Emerging Consumption Trends - New consumption and service consumption are expected to be key areas for expanding domestic demand in the second half of the year, with provinces planning various promotional activities [2][11] - High-quality exhibitions and technology products are becoming significant drivers for service consumption, as seen in events like the WAIC 2025 [10][11] Group 5: Future Outlook - The fiscal support for "old for new" consumption subsidies is projected to reach 300 billion yuan, potentially driving an additional 2 trillion yuan in consumption [9] - The focus on experiential and personalized consumption is expected to grow, particularly among younger consumers [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the need to effectively release domestic demand potential in the second half of the year, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to achieve economic growth targets [3][5]. Economic Growth and Policy - China's GDP growth rate reached 5.3% in the first half of the year, with final consumption contributing approximately 52% to economic growth, highlighting domestic demand as the main driver [3]. - The focus for the second half of the year will be on maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight in macroeconomic policies [3][4]. - The government plans to accelerate the issuance of bonds and improve the efficiency of fund utilization, alongside implementing structural monetary policy tools to support economic recovery [3][4]. Consumer Demand and Spending - There will be a focus on implementing special actions to boost consumption, including policies like "trade-in" for consumer goods, with significant funding already allocated for this purpose [5]. - The government aims to enhance service consumption, which has strong employment absorption capacity and growth potential, by providing financial support and promoting new consumption models [5]. Fiscal Policy and Social Welfare - Fiscal spending is increasingly directed towards improving people's livelihoods, with significant growth in budget allocations for education, social security, and health care [6]. - Recent policies include raising basic pensions and implementing free preschool education to enhance residents' consumption capacity and willingness [6]. Urban Development and Infrastructure - The article emphasizes the importance of urban renewal as a means to stimulate domestic demand, with a focus on human-centered urbanization and infrastructure improvements [6]. - The government plans to support urban renewal projects through increased central budget investments and long-term special bonds [6]. Role of Major Economic Provinces - Major economic provinces are expected to play a crucial role in driving growth by accelerating the issuance and utilization of special bonds and leading in the development of new productive forces [7]. - The emphasis is on these provinces to take the lead in deep reforms and high-level opening up to stimulate effective investment [7].

证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 31 日 ——2025 年 7 月 PMI 点评 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 马赫 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 mahe@huayuanstock.com 制造业 PMI 季节性回落，价格指数回升 7 月 PMI 季节性回落，景气度有所下降。7 月制造业 PMI 环比下降 0.4pct 至 49.3%， 2021-2024 年的 7 月制造业 PMI 平均环比下降 0.38pct，今年 7 月下降或主要受部 分地区高温、暴雨、台风灾害等因素影响。7 月产需相关指数有所收缩，价格指数持 续回升。7 月非制造业商务活动指数为 50.1%，环比下降 0.4pct，服务业商务活动指 数和建筑业商务活动指数分别为 50.0%和 50.6%，较上月分别-0.1pct/-2.2pct。7 月综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.2%，较上月-0.5pct，仍位于扩张区间，显示企业生产经 营活动总体扩张虽有所减缓，但经济内生动力持续 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the Chinese economy's performance in the first half of the year, achieving a GDP growth of 5.3%, and outlines the macroeconomic policies for the second half aimed at sustaining growth and addressing challenges [1][4]. Economic Growth and Policy Measures - The political bureau meeting emphasized the need for continuous and timely macroeconomic policy adjustments, including more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to fully unleash policy effects [2][5]. - Analysts suggest that new significant measures may be introduced to stabilize growth, such as interest rate cuts, increasing the fiscal deficit ratio, and enhancing special bond issuance [2][6]. Internal Demand and Consumption - The meeting highlighted the importance of effectively releasing internal demand potential and implementing actions to boost consumption, particularly in services, which saw a 5.3% year-on-year growth in retail sales [12][13]. - The government plans to support consumption through special bonds and policies aimed at enhancing consumer environments and promoting new consumption models [12][13]. Foreign Trade and Investment - The meeting called for maintaining a stable foreign trade and foreign investment environment, with measures to support export enterprises facing challenges due to external pressures [14][16]. - The article notes that China's goods trade reached 21.79 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, with exports growing by 7.2% [17]. Risk Management and Debt - The meeting stressed the need to actively and prudently manage local government debt risks, prohibiting new hidden debts while promoting the development needed to mitigate these risks [9][10]. - The focus on high-quality urban renewal aims to prevent excessive supply and further debt risks in the real estate sector [8][9]. Capital Market Development - The meeting emphasized enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market, which is crucial for maintaining economic confidence and supporting new productive forces [10]. - Key reforms will focus on financial openness, investment reforms, and increasing long-term capital market participation [10].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau on July 30 emphasized the need for continuous and stable macroeconomic policies, highlighting the importance of maintaining policy continuity and stability while addressing current economic challenges [3][4][14]. Macroeconomic Policy - The meeting acknowledged that major economic indicators are performing well, with a focus on maintaining policy continuity and stability. It noted the potential for increased fiscal measures in the fourth quarter if economic performance weakens unexpectedly [4][5]. - The meeting indicated that the third quarter may focus on the effectiveness of existing fiscal policies, with a possibility of additional fiscal measures if economic conditions deteriorate [5][21]. - The risk mitigation of existing debt continues, with a strong emphasis on prohibiting new hidden debts and effectively managing local government debt risks [6][21]. Monetary Policy - The meeting reiterated that monetary policy should maintain ample liquidity and promote a reduction in social financing costs, suggesting that lowering financing costs may not necessarily require a reduction in policy interest rates [7][20]. - Structural monetary policy tools are expected to play a significant role in supporting weak economic segments and addressing potential risks [7][20]. Consumer Policy - The meeting proposed to cultivate new growth points in service consumption while ensuring the improvement of people's livelihoods, indicating a focus on sectors such as cultural tourism and basic social services [8][33]. - Specific measures include the implementation of consumption vouchers and support for sectors like dining and tourism to stimulate demand [33]. Technology and Innovation - The meeting emphasized the importance of supporting technological innovation and fostering new pillar industries with international competitiveness, indicating a long-term focus on innovation as a key driver of economic growth [9][14]. Market Competition and Regulation - The meeting highlighted the need to deepen the construction of a unified national market and optimize market competition order, addressing issues of disorderly competition and local government intervention [10][15]. - The focus on "anti-involution" policies aims to regulate market behavior and promote fair competition, particularly in key industries [10][15]. Real Estate Policy - The meeting's discussion on real estate was limited, primarily focusing on high-quality urban renewal, reflecting a cautious approach to the real estate market [12][24]. - The emphasis on prohibiting new hidden debts suggests a shift towards more sustainable financing models for urban development [24][27]. Capital Market - The meeting underscored the importance of enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, indicating a commitment to stabilizing and improving market conditions [15][20]. - The potential for increased foreign investment and improved domestic investor sentiment is anticipated as a result of these measures [15][20].

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized that the "14th Five-Year Plan" is crucial for achieving socialist modernization and that the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on consolidating foundations and comprehensive development [1][2] - The economic indicators for the first half of the year showed a GDP growth of 5.3%, leading to an upward revision of China's economic growth forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) [2] - The meeting highlighted the need for flexible and anticipatory macroeconomic policies to address potential challenges while seizing development opportunities [2][3] Group 2 - The focus on addressing "involution" in industries, particularly in the automotive sector, indicates a shift towards regulated competition and the promotion of consumer confidence [3][4] - The meeting called for effective measures to unleash domestic demand, particularly through initiatives to boost consumption and develop new growth points in service consumption [5] - Specific actions were proposed to support foreign trade enterprises, enhance the attractiveness of domestic capital markets, and stabilize the real estate market through urban renewal efforts [6]