Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "national subsidy" policy in the consumer loan sector aims to enhance financing support for both residents and service enterprises, reflecting a coordinated effort between fiscal and financial policies [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The recently released "Personal Consumption Loan Fiscal Subsidy Policy Implementation Plan" and "Service Industry Operating Entity Loan Subsidy Policy Implementation Plan" are designed to increase financing support and direct more credit funds into the consumption sector [1]. - The 1% subsidy may seem minimal, but it has a significant leverage effect on boosting consumption by reducing credit costs for residents and alleviating financing difficulties for enterprises [2]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - China's consumption potential is substantial, with a notable shift from goods consumption to service consumption as income levels rise; service consumption is projected to account for approximately 46.1% of per capita spending in 2024 [1]. - The demand for essential services such as elderly care and childcare is increasing, alongside trends like the socialization of household labor and high demand for entertainment and tourism [1]. Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - Despite the potential for growth, there are constraints on both households and enterprises in accessing funds for consumption and business expansion, such as preventive savings in areas like healthcare and education, which suppress consumption willingness [1]. - The fiscal leverage aims to encourage residents to spend rather than save, with the expectation that stable employment and improved supply will further enhance consumer demand [2].

Group 1 - The credit bond market has seen a predominance of upgrades in credit ratings, with 83 upgrades and only 9 downgrades as of September 19, 2025, indicating a continued reduction in credit risk [1][10][18] - The majority of upgrades have been by one level, with 95.18% of upgrades being one level up, and only one case of a four-level upgrade [10][13] - The most frequent upgrade was from AA+ to AAA, with 48 instances, reflecting a favorable credit environment [2][18] Group 2 - In the urban investment bond sector, the majority of rating adjustments have been upward, with 25 upgrades and only 5 downgrades, primarily concentrated in county-level platforms [21][25] - The downgrades in urban investment bonds were mainly located in Yunnan and Guizhou, with 4 out of 5 downgrades occurring in these regions [25][27] - The distribution of upgrades shows that regions with lighter debt burdens and better economic conditions, such as Hunan and Zhejiang, have seen significant upgrades [25][27] Group 3 - The industrial bond sector has also experienced a positive trend, with 52 upgrades and only 4 downgrades, indicating a significant improvement in the credit quality of companies, particularly in real estate and retail [28][30] - The majority of upgrades in the industrial sector were from state-owned enterprises, with 42 upgrades from local state-owned enterprises [28][30] - The downgrades were primarily in the non-bank financial, construction, and coal industries, suggesting sector-specific challenges [30][32] Group 4 - In the financial bond sector, there have been no downgrades, with all 6 rating adjustments being upgrades, primarily among city commercial banks [3][34] - The notable upgrades include HanKou Bank, which was upgraded from AA+ to AAA, reflecting improved creditworthiness [3][34][35] - The overall trend in financial bonds indicates a recognition of the credit quality of city commercial banks [3][34] Group 5 - The service consumption market and light industry are developing in tandem, with policies aimed at enhancing supply-demand compatibility and expanding service consumption [36][50] - The government is focusing on improving service quality and expanding the scale of service consumption, particularly in areas like dining and accommodation [50][41] - The light industry is expected to play a significant role in stabilizing growth and promoting consumption, with initiatives to support high-quality supply [36][50]

近日，商务部联合其他八个部门发布了《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》，该文件提出了五个方面 共19条具体举措，旨在推动服务消费的增长。其中，八项举措专注于提升高品质服务的供给能力。这些 措施包括开展"服务消费季"系列活动、支持优质消费资源与知名IP的跨界合作、扩大电信和医疗等领域 的开放试点、逐步扩大免签国家范围，以及优化学生假期安排和相关政策。 此外，文件首次提出建设消费新业态、新模式、新场景的试点城市，进一步激发市场活力。这一系列政 策的推出体现了国家对服务消费市场的重视，旨在满足日益增长的消费需求，推动新经济形态的发展。 从房地产市场的表现来看，根据中国8月70个城市的房价数据，一线城市的新房价格环比下降0.1%，而 二线城市的房价环比下降幅度为0.3%。这些数据与上月相比，降幅均收窄了0.1个百分点。同时，在二 手房市场方面，一线城市的二手房价格环比降幅保持在1%，而二线城市的降幅则扩大至0.6%。仅长春 一城在当月实现环比上涨，显示出房地产市场仍然处于调整阶段，不过也有部分指标显示出边际改善的 迹象。 在政策的推动下，地方国资并购基金逐渐成为市场的重要力量。今年以来，上海、深圳、福建和浙江等 地相继 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent macroeconomic events are generally favorable for the market, but the A-share index has shown signs of retreat after reaching highs, suggesting a breakthrough pressure at current levels [4][7][8] - The report emphasizes that despite short-term fluctuations, the upward trend in the A-share market remains intact, with limited amplitude and duration of corrections expected [8][15] - Investment recommendations focus on service consumption sectors such as tourism, dining, duty-free, and cinema, as well as high-dividend sectors like coal, banking, public utilities, and transportation [4][15] Group 2 - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" policies are beginning to show effects, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) showing signs of stabilization after eight months of decline, indicating a potential improvement in economic conditions [8][10] - The report notes that fixed asset investment growth has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.5% from January to August 2025, reflecting challenges in infrastructure and real estate investments [8][10] - The service consumption policies are expected to continue to be implemented, with measures aimed at boosting service consumption and addressing structural unemployment [11][15] Group 3 - The report states that the overall valuation of the A-share market remains attractive, with the TTM price-to-earnings ratio at 22.10 times, which is at the 89.43 percentile of the past decade [8][15] - The report mentions that the fiscal revenue has shown signs of recovery, with a public budget revenue of 148,198 billion yuan from January to August, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.3% [12][13] - The report discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut, which is expected to benefit global equity markets, particularly in emerging markets and sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and precious metals [14][15]

策略研究 · 周度报告 美联储降息落地，恒生科技领涨全球权益指数 2025 年 09 月 21 日 核心观点： 分析师 杨超 ：010-8092-7696 ：yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 周美丽 ：zhoumeili_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525070002 相关研究 2025-06-27，2025 年大类资产中期投资展望：驭变谋 势 2025-06-22，2025 年港股中期投资展望：时移世易， 见机而作 2025-06-21，2025 年 A 股中期投资展望：筑基行稳， 重塑鼎新 2025-06-10，稳定币概念股投资展望 2025-05-29，上市公司并购重组迎来哪些新变化？ 2025-05-07，关键时间节点的发布会：一揽子金融政策 稳市场稳预期 2025-04-25，4 月中央政治局会议解读： 持续稳定和 活跃资本市场"聚焦哪些方面？ 2025-04-23，公募基金一季度持仓释放哪些信号？ 2025-04-08，汇金入市，坚定看多 2025-04-03，港股 2025 年二季度投 ...

Domestic Policy Insights - The Chinese government is making progress in addressing "involution" in the automotive, pig farming, and photovoltaic sectors, with a focus on pig farming and silicon materials [2] - The automotive industry is seeing the release of a payment standard initiative aimed at ensuring supplier payments do not exceed 60 days [2] - In pig farming, a meeting has been held to discuss reducing the number of breeding sows, with accompanying financial measures suggested [2] - The photovoltaic sector is tightening energy consumption standards, which may accelerate the exit of outdated production capacity, particularly in silicon material pricing [2] Autonomous Driving Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a draft for mandatory national standards on intelligent connected vehicle driving assistance systems, aiming to fill safety gaps in large-scale applications [3] - The new standards emphasize safety boundaries and monitoring of driver status, suggesting a focus on three types of companies: leading autonomous driving suppliers, companies enhancing driving safety, and automotive testing institutions [3] Service Consumption Policies - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have announced measures to boost service consumption, with 19 initiatives aimed at stimulating demand and supporting high-quality economic development [4] - Key areas of focus for future investment include cultural tourism, intellectual property consumption, and sports consumption [4] International Relations and Business Implications - Recent talks between Chinese and U.S. leaders have been described as pragmatic and constructive, with discussions on the TikTok transaction being a central issue [5] - The TikTok deal involves core algorithms and shareholding ratios, with Oracle and other companies potentially becoming buyers [5] Industry Policy Updates - The State Council is actively discussing policies related to ecological protection and domestic product standards in government procurement [6] - Recent industry policies include a growth plan for light industry and various regional initiatives to integrate artificial intelligence into industrial processes [7]

1. 商务部等九部门发布扩大服务消费19条举措。 商务部等九部门发布《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》，提出五方 面19条举措，其中8项与"高品质服务供给"有关。文件提出，开展"服务消费季"系列促消费活动；支持优质消费资源与知 名IP跨界合作；扩大电信、医疗、教育等领域开放试点；有序扩大单方面免签国家范围；优化学生假期安排，完善配套政 策等。文件还首次提出开展消费新业态新模式新场景试点城市建设。 2. 中国8月70城房价出炉，一线城市新房价格环比降幅收窄。 中国8月70城房价数据显示，一线城市新房价格环比下降0.1%，二线城市 新房环比下降0.3%，降幅均较上月收窄0.1个百分点。二手房方面，一线城市二手房价格环比降幅持平于1%，二线城市降幅扩大0.1个 百分点至0.6%，当月仅有长春1城房价环比上涨。这表明房地产市场仍处于调整阶段，但部分指标出现边际改善迹象。 3. 地方国资并购基金"潮涌"，加速赋能产业升级。 在政策暖风的吹拂下，地方国资并购基金设立呈现"潮涌"之势。今年以来，已有上 海、深圳、福建、浙江等地纷纷宣布拟设或已设国资并购基金。地方国资并购基金的兴起，契合国家战略导向。随着"并购六条"等政 策 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall production is stable, and investment is better than consumption during the period from September 14 to September 20, 2025 [1]. - The industrial production shows marginal improvement, with mixed performance in different sectors. The personnel flow slightly rebounds, and the freight price slightly drops. The consumption shows a decline in the year - on - year wholesale sales of automobiles and a differentiation in prices. The investment has good performance in construction and a recovery in the commercial housing market. The port throughput in exports increases, while most shipping indices decline. - The bond indices generally rise, most stock indices increase, commodities show mixed performance, and most foreign currencies depreciate against the RMB [1]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Category of Assets - This week, bond indices generally rose, most stock indices increased, commodities showed mixed performance, and most foreign currencies declined. The China Bond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank Bond Index had the largest increase, with a weekly increase of 0.15%. The ChiNext Index had the largest gain among stock indices, with a weekly increase of 2.34%. The Nanhua Black Index among commodities had the largest increase, with a gain of 2.27%, while the Nanhua Precious Metals Index had the largest decline, with a drop of 0.80%. The British pound had the largest decline among foreign currencies, with a weekly decline of 0.50%, and the US dollar depreciated against the RMB, with a weekly decline of 0.14% [1][6]. 3.2. Industrial Production - Production showed marginal improvement. From the upstream perspective, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants decreased by 0.50 pcts to 34.40% week - on - week, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.15 pcts to 84.00% week - on - week, and the crude steel output increased by 7.19% week - on - week. In the real - estate chain, the operating rate of rebar and float glass remained flat compared to last week at 42.96% and 76.31% respectively, and the mill operation rate increased by 1.18 pcts to 38.55% week - on - week. In the consumer goods chain, the operating rate of polyester filament increased by 0.11 pcts to 91.54% week - on - week, the PTA operating rate increased by 2.34 pcts to 77.29% week - on - week, and the methanol operating rate decreased by 1.81 pcts to 79.39% week - on - week. In the automotive chain, the operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles increased by 0.20 pcts to 73.66% week - on - week, and the operating rate of all - steel tires for automobiles increased by 0.07 pcts to 65.66% week - on - week [1][9]. 3.3. People and Freight Flow - The personnel flow slightly rebounded, and the freight price slightly dropped. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index increased by 0.07% week - on - week. The 7DMA of the number of domestic flights increased by 0.80% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of international flights increased by 2.56% week - on - week. The subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen all increased. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index decreased by 0.04% week - on - week, and the total volume was higher than the same period in previous years [1][27]. 3.4. Consumption - The year - on - year wholesale sales of automobiles declined, and the prices showed differentiation. The year - on - year wholesale sales of passenger cars decreased by 1.00%, while the year - on - year retail sales increased by 1.00%. The 4WMA of the year - on - year growth rates of both wholesale and retail sales declined. The weekly box office of movies increased by 170% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of movie - goers increased by 176% week - on - week. Most agricultural product prices declined, with the pork price decreasing by 2.01% week - on - week and the vegetable price decreasing by 3.27% week - on - week [1][44]. 3.5. Investment - Construction showed good performance, and the commercial housing market recovered. The cement inventory - to - capacity ratio increased by 0.5 pcts week - on - week, the cement price index increased by 0.42% week - on - week, and the cement shipping rate remained flat compared to last week. The rebar inventory decreased by 0.4% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 1.3 pcts week - on - week, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 6.0% week - on - week. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 7.7% week - on - week, with increases in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities decreased by 1.6% week - on - week, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.2% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 cities decreased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [1][49]. 3.6. Exports - The port throughput increased, and most shipping indices declined. The weekly port cargo throughput increased by 1.8%, and the weekly container throughput increased by 0.1%. The BDI Index increased by 3.62% week - on - week, while the SCFI Index and CCFI Index decreased by 14.30% and 0.45% respectively week - on - week [1][68].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance sector, indicating a favorable investment environment [2]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with the Shenyin Wanguo home appliance index rising by 1.6% while the CSI 300 index fell by 0.4% [2][3]. - Key companies such as Sanhua Intelligent Controls (20.7%), Zhejiang Meida (11.3%), and Yitian Intelligent (10.5%) led the gains, while companies like Bear Electric (-6.2%) and Beiqing Song (-3.0%) faced declines [4][2]. - The report highlights the implementation of policies aimed at expanding service consumption, with 19 specific measures proposed by nine government departments [9]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% is expected to provide greater operational space for China's monetary policy [10]. Data Observations - In August, the offline average price of white goods increased year-on-year, with air conditioners seeing a retail volume increase of 2.2% and a retail value increase of 2.9% [30]. - The average price of air conditioners reached 4,138 yuan, up 0.32% year-on-year, while the market share of Haier increased by 2.6 percentage points to 22.8% [30][32]. - For refrigerators, retail volume decreased by 0.4% in August, but retail value increased by 3.8%, with the average price rising by 2.4% to 6,438 yuan [32]. - In the kitchen appliance segment, the retail volume of range hoods increased by 15.7% and retail value by 22.5%, with an average price increase of 5.2% to 4,246 yuan [36]. Investment Highlights - Three main investment themes are identified: 1. **White Goods**: The reversal of real estate policies is expected to benefit the white goods sector, characterized by low valuations, high dividends, and stable growth. The "trade-in" policy is anticipated to catalyze demand [2]. 2. **Exports**: Companies like Ousheng Electric and Dechang Co. are recommended due to their stable income growth from large customer orders and expanding automotive parts business [2]. 3. **Core Components**: The report suggests investing in companies like Huaxiang Co. and Shun'an Environment, which are positioned to benefit from the increased demand for core components in the white goods sector [2].

8月份中国经济出现短期波动，政策加码的预期上升。 8月经济数据短期波动 国家统计局15日发布的数据显示，8月份规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.2%，比7月小幅回落0.5个百分 点，为2024年9月以来最低；社会消费品零售总额同比增长3.4%，比7月回落0.3个百分点，为年内最 低。今年1～8月，全国固定资产投资同比增长0.5%，比1～7月放缓1.1个百分点。 国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示，宏观政策持续发力，工业和服务业保持较快增长，消费、进出口规 模仍然在扩大，就业、物价总体稳定，新质生产力培育壮大，三季度经济运行有望保持稳中有进发展态 势。 【点评】受出口下行压力显现等因素影响，8月份中国经济出现短期波动。经济数据落地之后，政策加 码的预期上升。专家认为，四季度可能推出重大增量措施，核心是财政加力、央行降息，以及更大力度 推动房地产市场止跌回稳。这将在很大程度上对冲外需放缓影响，遏制经济下行势头，确保顺利实现全 年经济增长目标。 9部门19条举措扩大服务消费 商务部等9部门9月16日发布《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》，从培育服务消费促进平台、丰富高 品质服务供给、激发服务消费新增量等五方面提出19条具体 ...