1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, crude oil prices fluctuated widely. Despite a slight recovery during the week, the decline at the beginning and end of the week led to the lowest level in nearly three weeks, with the weekly line recording two consecutive weeks of decline. Considering the current market situation, the long - term expectation of a loose supply side in the commodity attribute will continue to pressure oil prices. Even though inventories have slightly decreased recently, it is difficult to support oil prices due to the relatively pessimistic summer demand outlook. In terms of financial attributes, Powell remains cautious about interest rate cuts, and Trump's tariff policy may turn more aggressive, maintaining overall pressure. Politically, geopolitical situations around the world have not significantly cooled down, but the possibility of escalation is also relatively small, remaining volatile. Therefore, in the short term, oil prices lack clear upward momentum and may continue to fluctuate weakly if there are no significant changes in various factors [63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, oil prices fluctuated widely. Although there was a slight rebound during the week, the decline at the weekend erased most of the gains. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate widely this week. It is recommended to focus on the price range of [485 - 525] yuan/barrel, mainly engage in short - spread operations within the range, and consider short - selling on rallies. However, due to geopolitical and other factors, the volatility may increase, so it is not advisable to chase the decline excessively [13]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, oil prices generally showed a wide - range fluctuating trend. During the week, they were affected by long - term interest rate cut expectations, tariff negotiation changes, and geopolitical situations, showing a slight recovery. However, at the weekend, most of the gains were given back, resulting in the lowest level in nearly three weeks, and the weekly line recorded two consecutive weeks of decline [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macro - economic Factors - **Tariff Policy**: Trump plans to set a new "reciprocal tariff rate" system before August 1, with tariff rates ranging from 15% to 50%. Some countries will face a maximum tariff of 50%, and Japan and some EU countries have reached a 15% tariff agreement. This indicates that the Trump administration's tariff policy is becoming more aggressive, which may lead to a more pessimistic market expectation for the results on August 1 [25]. - **Interest Rate Cut Expectation**: The market has a high expectation of an interest rate cut in September, which may have an impact on oil prices [28]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: In the Middle East, the US - Hamas cease - fire negotiation has not made substantial progress, and France's plan to recognize Palestine may ease the situation. In the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the third round of talks did not achieve substantial results, and the relationship between Russia and other countries remains uncertain. Iran and the US will participate in a new round of nuclear negotiations, leaving some room for the Iranian nuclear issue [32]. 3.3.2 Supply - side Factors - **OPEC+ Production**: OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is expected to maintain the current production increase plan at the meeting on Monday. Eight member countries will increase their total daily production by 548,000 barrels starting from August. Also, there are concerns about restricted Russian oil exports, which may alleviate the long - term expectation of a loose supply side to some extent [36]. - **Russian and Iranian Oil Exports**: Attention should be paid to the changes in Russian and Iranian oil exports, which may affect the global oil supply [37]. - **US Oil Production**: US oil production has slightly decreased [40]. 3.3.3 Demand - side Factors - **Consumption Expectation**: The consumption expectation continues to cool down [43]. - **Manufacturing Industry**: The manufacturing industry remains in a contraction state, which may reduce the demand for oil [46]. - **Refined Oil Production**: The production of refined oil has slightly slowed down [51]. 3.3.4 Inventory Factors - **Crude Oil Inventory**: US crude oil inventories decreased in the week ending July 18, which provides limited support for oil prices under the long - term pressure of a loose supply side [53]. - **Gasoline Inventory**: The decline in US gasoline inventories in the week ending July 18 may support gasoline prices, which will be transmitted to the domestic refined oil market and support the performance of fuel cracking [57]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - In the short term, oil prices lack clear upward momentum. If there are no significant changes in various factors, they may continue to fluctuate weakly [63].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive investment outlook for several companies in the oil and gas sector, highlighting their strong earnings certainty and high dividend characteristics [4][12]. Core Insights - Oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with OPEC+ likely to maintain its current production increase plans, leading to a potential increase of 548,000 barrels per day in September [1][9]. - The report emphasizes the impact of ongoing trade disputes, particularly between the EU and the US, which could affect market dynamics and economic outlook [1][9]. - The US oil production has decreased, while refinery processing rates have increased, indicating a shift in the supply-demand balance [10][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is scheduled to meet on July 28, with a separate meeting for eight member countries regarding voluntary production cuts on August 3 [1][9]. - Current market expectations suggest no adjustments to the existing production increase plans, with a full lifting of previous cuts anticipated [1][9]. Market Performance - As of July 25, the Brent crude oil futures price was $68.44 per barrel, down 1.21% week-on-week, while WTI futures settled at $65.16 per barrel, down 3.24% [10][37]. - The report notes a decrease in US crude oil production to 13.27 million barrels per day, a reduction of 100,000 barrels from the previous week [10][11]. Company Performance - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies, including: - China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) with a recommended rating and an estimated EPS of 0.90 yuan for 2024 [5]. - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) also recommended, with an estimated EPS of 2.90 yuan for 2024 [5]. - Sinopec (China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation) is highlighted for its high dividend yield and integrated operations [5][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource advantages and robust risk management capabilities, such as PetroChina, CNOOC, and Sinopec [4][12]. - It also recommends monitoring companies in growth phases, like Zhongman Petroleum and New Natural Gas, which are encouraged by domestic policies to increase oil and gas reserves [4][12].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive investment outlook for the oil and gas sector, highlighting specific companies with strong performance and dividend potential [12]. Core Insights - OPEC+ is increasing production as planned, with a June 2025 output rise of 458,000 barrels per day, slightly above the target of 411,000 barrels per day, indicating strong production momentum [1][9]. - Major international oil agencies, including EIA and IEA, have raised their forecasts for supply growth in 2025, with EIA adjusting supply and demand growth by 26,000 and 1,000 barrels per day respectively [2][9]. - The report notes a decrease in U.S. crude oil production and refinery processing rates, with production at 13.38 million barrels per day, down by 100,000 barrels from the previous week [3][10]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Performance - As of July 18, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $69.28 per barrel, a decrease of 1.53% week-on-week, while WTI futures settled at $67.34 per barrel, down 1.62% [10][43]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - EIA forecasts global supply and demand for 2025 at 10,461 million and 10,354 million barrels per day, respectively, indicating a surplus of 1.07 million barrels per day [2][9]. - OPEC's forecast for 2025 non-DOC supply is 6,265 million barrels per day, with global demand at 10,513 million barrels per day, suggesting a supply-demand gap if DOC maintains its production [2][9]. Company Performance and Recommendations - The report highlights specific companies for investment: - China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) with a target PE of 10 for 2024A and a recommendation to buy [5]. - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) with a target PE of 9 for 2024A and a recommendation to buy [5]. - Sinopec with a target PE of 14 for 2024A and a recommendation to buy [5]. - Zhongman Petroleum with a recommendation to buy due to its growth potential [12]. - New Natural Gas with a recommendation to buy, focusing on its growth phase [12]. Market Trends - The oil and gas sector has shown resilience, with the sector index rising by 1.6% as of July 18, 2025, outperforming the broader market indices [13][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the energy and chemical commodities market on July 15, 2025, showed a trend of fluctuations. Most varieties are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the market is affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and policy adjustments [1][2][5]. - Crude oil prices dropped on Monday. Trump's statement on the Russia - Ukraine issue led to a price decline. Although Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast for the second half of 2025, the market is still cautious about future policies [1]. - For fuel oil, the low - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakened slightly, and the high - sulfur market remained stable. The LU - FU spread reached a high for the year, but the medium - term supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil still exists [1][2]. - The asphalt market's short - term supply decreased, and although the rainy weather affected the terminal construction, the actual demand still had support. It will fluctuate with the cost of crude oil [2]. - In the polyester market, the production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to recover, and the inventory of PTA may accumulate, putting pressure on prices [2][4]. - The import of rubber increased year - on - year, and with the gradual realization of production and rigid demand from downstream tires, rubber prices are under pressure [4]. - For methanol, the load of Iranian plants has recovered, and downstream profits have improved. The price will return to a fluctuating trend [4]. - The supply of polyolefins has limited changes, demand is at the bottom, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly [5]. - The PVC market price declined, and the corporate start - up rate decreased. Although demand has not improved significantly, the market's upward rebound space is limited [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, the prices of WTI, Brent, and SC2508 all declined. Trump's statement on the Russia - Ukraine issue was seen as a negative signal. Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast for the second half of 2025. The price will fluctuate, and future policies need to be monitored [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil rose on Monday. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened slightly, and the high - sulfur market remained stable. It will follow the cost of crude oil and fluctuate. The LU - FU spread has widened, and short - selling opportunities can be considered [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt rose on Monday. The adjustment of the consumption tax deduction policy has not shown an impact. Supply has decreased, and demand has support. It will fluctuate with the cost of crude oil [2]. - **Polyester**: The prices of TA, EG, and PX rose on Monday. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to recover, and the inventory of PTA may accumulate, putting pressure on prices [2][4]. - **Rubber**: The price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber remained unchanged, and the price of NR decreased. The import of rubber increased year - on - year, and with the gradual realization of production and rigid demand from downstream tires, rubber prices are under pressure [4]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol will return to a fluctuating trend. The load of Iranian plants has recovered, and downstream profits have improved [4]. - **Polyolefins**: The price of polyolefins is expected to fluctuate slightly. Supply has limited changes, demand is at the bottom, and the demand for agricultural films will increase seasonally [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The price of PVC decreased. The corporate start - up rate decreased, and although demand has not improved significantly, the upward rebound space is limited [5]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on July 15, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes [6]. 3.3 Market News - Trump announced new weapons for Ukraine and threatened sanctions on countries buying Russian products if Russia does not agree to a peace agreement within 50 days, causing the oil price to decline [8]. - Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast for the second half of 2025, but kept the forecast for 2026 unchanged [8]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report shows the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc [10][11][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [28][29][30]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows the spreads of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [44][45][49]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spreads and ratios between different varieties, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt [65][66]. - **Production Profits**: The report shows the cash flow and production profit trends of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [72]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [78][79][80]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is in the 6th floor and Unit 703, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [83].

Group 1: Gold Market - Ukrainian President Zelensky submitted a draft law to extend the wartime state and mobilization order for 90 days, which, along with Trump's military aid to Ukraine, supports gold prices [1] - Fed Chairman Powell faces challenges regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, and if he resigns, a new chairman favorable to interest rate cuts could benefit gold prices [1] - Technically, gold is trading above the 20-day moving average, with resistance at $3375 and support at $3330 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - OPEC Secretary-General stated that OPEC countries are increasing oil production, expecting strong demand in Q3, leading to a balanced oil market in the coming months [1] - Despite OPEC+ raising production policies, actual output has not exceeded expectations, and the announcement of a production freeze in October may support oil prices [2] - Analyst Chen Yu believes oil prices are unlikely to have a one-sided trend, with a high probability of continued fluctuations [3] - Technically, oil prices face resistance at $69 and support at $65 [3] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices have maintained high-level fluctuations after a previous rise, with potential for continuation [3] - The focus is on testing support at $5.34 [3] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index shows a recent trend of fluctuations, indicating a weak short-term outlook [3] - Technical indicators suggest an upward trend remains intact, with support at 39,000 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The oil and petrochemical sector is experiencing strong demand for refined oil during the travel peak season, leading to a short-term bullish fluctuation in oil prices. However, with OPEC+ accelerating production increases, there are concerns about potential downward pressure on international oil prices in the medium to long term [2][4]. Oil and Petrochemical Sector - As of July 4-11, 2025, WTI crude oil futures closed up by 3.05%, while Brent oil futures rose by 3.09% [2]. - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Hamas, and Iran's cautious approach to nuclear negotiations, are contributing to short-term support for oil prices [2]. - The U.S. saw an increase in commercial crude oil inventories, but gasoline and jet fuel stocks decreased, indicating strong refined oil demand during the summer travel season [2]. - OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, with Saudi Arabia planning a final monthly increase of 550,000 barrels per day in September [2]. - There are concerns that after the peak season, international oil prices may face greater downward pressure due to accelerated production increases by OPEC+ [2][4]. Fluorochemical Sector - The supply of popular fluorinated refrigerants is tight, with prices remaining high. R32 prices continue to rise, while R134a prices are stable [3]. - The supply side is constrained due to policy restrictions, while demand from the automotive and air conditioning sectors is strong, supported by national subsidy policies [3]. - In the first half of 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 15.62 million and 15.65 million units, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 12.5% and 11.4% [3]. - The production of second-generation refrigerants is decreasing, while the production and quotas for third-generation refrigerants are locked in, leading to a high concentration of supply and supporting continued price increases [3]. Investment Recommendations - The oil and petrochemical sector is recommended for attention due to ongoing geopolitical risks and strong refined oil demand during the summer travel season, although medium-term concerns about price declines exist [4]. - The fluorochemical sector is also highlighted, with expectations of improved supply-demand dynamics driven by government subsidies and strong downstream demand [4]. - Companies to watch in the oil sector include China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC, while in the fluorochemical sector, focus on leading companies in third-generation refrigerants and upstream fluorite resources [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, it provides mid - term outlooks for each energy and chemical product, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", "oscillating strongly", etc., which can be used as a reference for investment ratings of different products [3][5][10] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international diesel futures continue to be strong, and the downstream performance is eye - catching, providing support for crude oil prices. The overall energy and chemical market is expected to oscillate, waiting for new supply - demand drivers [1][3] - Oil - chemical products may have a small rebound due to the continuous strength of crude oil prices and the unfulfilled expectation of a decline in refined oil crack spreads, but the downstream and terminal industries do not support a trend - upward movement [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Market Overview - Diesel remains strong, with the immediate spread of European ICE diesel reaching its highest level since 2022 and the US diesel crack spread rising. The low inventory in the US and Europe, combined with refinery outages and good demand, contributes to the strength of refined oil. The global crude oil inventory has not increased further since June [1] - Chemical product basis has stabilized slightly after a significant decline. Oil - chemical products may have a small rebound, but the downstream does not support a long - term upward trend. The spread between pure benzene and styrene is still narrowing [2] 2. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - US crude oil commercial inventory increased significantly on a weekly basis, and oil prices remained stable. On July 9, EIA reported that US gasoline demand was still very strong. The market is in an oscillating pattern, and diesel remains strong. OPEC + may increase production in September, and the US sanctions on Iran remain unchanged [5][8] Asphalt - Asphalt futures prices face significant downward pressure. OPEC + may increase production in August and September, increasing heavy - oil supply. Domestic asphalt raw material supply is sufficient, and production is expected to increase in July. The demand side shows that asphalt is overvalued [10][11] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil futures prices face downward pressure. OPEC + may increase production, and the decline in natural gas prices may reduce the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation. China's increase in fuel oil import tariffs and the decline in geopolitical tensions also have a negative impact [12] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices follow crude oil to oscillate. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, and is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation [13] LPG - The cost - side support of LPG weakens, and the fundamental pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. The PG futures may oscillate weakly due to factors such as the significant reduction in CP prices in July, the rapid accumulation of US propane inventory, and weak domestic demand [14][15] PX - Crude oil prices rise, driving PX to rebound. In the short term, the tight - balance pattern of PX continues, but the terminal market does not provide strong support, and the absolute price of PX has a downward trend [17] PTA - PTA is affected by terminal negative feedback and oscillates weakly. It is expected that the PTA market will decline this week due to factors such as the expected weakness of crude oil prices, the increase in PTA spot circulation, and the possible reduction in production by downstream polyester factories [17] Pure Benzene - Pure benzene has risen continuously due to positive news of downstream production. In the medium term, the situation in July - August is favorable, but high inventory may suppress the rebound [18] Styrene - Styrene rebounds driven by the strength of pure benzene. However, its own supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and port inventory is accumulating [22] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - EG is boosted by the rise in energy prices and oscillates due to its own supply - demand situation. The EG09 contract has upward elasticity, while the 01 contract may be shorted on rebounds [23][24] Short - Fiber - Short - fiber production and sales have slightly increased, the basis is stable, and processing fees have risen. The short - fiber supply - demand pattern oscillates, and the downstream weakness has not been transmitted to short - fiber itself [24] Bottle Chips - Bottle chips are in the maintenance cycle, and processing fees need to remain low to promote maintenance. The absolute value of bottle chips follows raw materials, and the further compression space of spot processing fees is limited [26] Methanol - Methanol port inventory accumulates, and it oscillates. The price in Inner Mongolia has decreased, and the logic of reduced imports has weakened. The port inventory has increased, and the coal supply is sufficient [27][28] Urea - Urea has a situation of weak supply and demand, and exports support the market. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. The spot market is active, and exports help reduce inventory [28] Plastic (LLDPE) - The short - term driving force of LLDPE is limited, and it oscillates. The raw material support is weakening, the supply side has pressure, and the demand side is in the off - season [30][31] PP - PP maintenance has increased slightly, and it oscillates in the short term. The cost - side support is weakening, the supply side has an increasing trend, and the demand side is weak [32] PVC - PVC has low valuation and weak supply - demand, and it oscillates. The new production capacity will be put into operation, the downstream demand is weak, and the export situation has not improved significantly [34] Caustic Soda - Caustic soda may be in a situation where downstream replenishes inventory, and the market is strong. It is supported by the low price of liquid chlorine and the possible downstream replenishment [35] 3. Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period spread**: Different varieties have different changes in inter - period spreads, such as Brent M1 - M2 spread increasing by 0.04 to 1.21, and PX 1 - 5 month spread increasing by 10 to 46 [36] - **Basis and warehouse receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of each variety vary. For example, the asphalt basis is 212 with a change of - 24, and the warehouse receipt is 82300 [37] - **Inter - variety spread**: The inter - variety spreads also show different changes, such as the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread decreasing by 14 to - 268, and the 1 - month TA - EG spread increasing by 20 to 378 [38]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价震荡运行，其中WTI 8月合约收盘下跌0.41美元至65.11 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 0.63%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘下跌 0.16 美元至 67.61 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 0.24%。SC2508 以 497.6 元/桶收盘，上涨 1.5 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 0.30%。四位 OPEC+代表透露该联盟计划 8 月增产 | | | | 41.1 万桶/日，此前 5 月、6 月和 7 月已实施同等规模的增产。 | | | | OPEC+将于 7 月 6 日召开会议，这将是该组织自 4 月开始逐步退 | | | | 出减产以来的第五次月度增产。市场再度计价欧佩克增产预期， | | | 原油 | 但整体仍较为温和。油价已回落至 6 月 13 日以色列首次袭击伊朗 | 震荡 | | | 之前的水平附近，市场焦点重新转向供需平衡。除了 OPEC+可能 | | | | 增产，这可能会加剧今年晚些时候供过于求 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "Oscillation", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and PVC [1][3][4][6][8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After sharp rises and falls in the market, oil prices are likely to oscillate within a narrow range, and there is room for a slight increase in the oil price center in the future, subject to further guidance from OPEC+ production policies [1] - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market will be supported in the short term, but the supply from Iran and Russia is declining, and attention should be paid to the risk of significant oil price fluctuations [3] - The price of asphalt is affected by both the cost - side oil price and weak demand, and it is expected to oscillate [3] - The supply of polyester products is expected to increase, demand support is insufficient, and prices are expected to return to a low - range consolidation, with PX and TA following the cost of crude oil [4] - The rubber market has weak fundamental contradictions, and rubber prices are expected to oscillate [4] - Methanol futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to factors such as the expected resumption of Iranian production and the impact on port arrivals in Taicang [6] - The fundamentals of polyolefins have not improved significantly, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to the decline in crude oil prices [6] - PVC prices are expected to continue to oscillate as the downstream enters the off - season, but the arbitrage and hedging space is gradually narrowing [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI August contract closed up $0.32 to $65.24 per barrel, a 0.49% increase; Brent August contract closed up $0.05 to $67.73 per barrel, a 0.07% increase; SC2508 closed at 498 yuan per barrel, down 7.4 yuan per barrel, a 1.46% decrease. Russian Urals crude oil price has fallen below the $60 per - barrel limit [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contract FU2509 of high - sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.03% at 3019 yuan per ton; the main contract LU2508 of low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 0.19% at 3693 yuan per ton. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories increased week - on - week [1][3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract BU2509 of asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 0.2% at 3563 yuan per ton. This week, the shipment volume of domestic asphalt manufacturers increased by 0.7% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises increased [3] - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 0.42% at 4770 yuan per ton; EG2509 closed down 0.69% at 4293 yuan per ton. Iranian ethylene glycol plants are expected to resume production, and the price center of ethylene glycol is expected to return to a low - range consolidation [3][4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract RU2509 of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 270 yuan per ton to 14040 yuan per ton; the main contract of 20 - number rubber rose 335 yuan per ton to 12145 yuan per ton. The global natural rubber production in May decreased, and the consumption decreased slightly [4] - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang is 2765 yuan per ton. Iranian plants are expected to resume production, and methanol futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6] - **Polyolefin**: The mainstream price of East China wire drawing is 7150 - 7250 yuan per ton. Due to the cease - fire between Israel and Iran and the decline in crude oil prices, polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6] - **PVC**: The prices in East, North, and South China markets fluctuate. As the downstream enters the off - season, PVC prices are expected to continue to oscillate [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on June 26th and 25th, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price increases and decreases, and basis changes [9] 3.3 Market News - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that as of the week ending June 20th, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 5.8 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 4.1 million barrels [12] - An impaired facility at the 14th - phase project of the South Pars Refinery in Iran's Bushehr Province has resumed operation [12] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [14] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [32] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts of inter - period contract spreads for various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA, are provided [47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report includes charts of inter - variety spreads, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Charts of production profits for products like ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE are presented [73] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [78][79][80]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. For crude oil, it will likely have a narrow - range oscillation, and there is potential for a slight upward shift in the price center. For fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, their prices are also expected to fluctuate, with some facing downward pressure due to factors such as supply - demand relationships and geopolitical situations [1][3][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the price center of oil rebounded slightly. The EIA inventory report showed significant declines in US commercial crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the OPEC+ meeting on July 6 are key factors affecting the supply - demand balance and price trends of the oil market [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil declined on Wednesday. The import and export volumes of Chinese bonded marine fuel oil in May showed different trends. In June, the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is expected to increase, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market in Asia is supported by summer power generation demand [3]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract fell on Wednesday. The July production plan of refineries is expected to increase year - on - year but decrease slightly month - on - month. The current influencing factors include cost - side oil prices and weak demand [3][5]. - **Polyester**: The prices of TA, EG, and PX showed different trends on Wednesday. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light, and there are plans for production cuts. The operation of Iranian terminals and the passage through the Strait of Hormuz are normal, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production of ethylene glycol plants [5]. - **Rubber**: The prices of main rubber contracts showed different trends on Wednesday. EU passenger car sales in May increased year - on - year, but the cumulative sales in the first five months decreased. The social inventory of natural rubber in China increased slightly, and the raw material prices declined [6]. - **Methanol**: The prices of methanol and its downstream products are presented. After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the resumption of production of Iranian plants is expected to increase the arrival volume, and the price of methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The prices and production profits of polypropylene and polyethylene are provided. After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran and the decline in oil prices, the prices of polyolefins are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The prices of PVC in different regions showed different trends. As the downstream enters the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, but the narrowing of arbitrage and hedging space is expected to keep the price in an oscillatory state [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on June 25, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The EIA inventory report shows that in the week ending June 20, US commercial crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased significantly, while the strategic petroleum reserve increased. The product supply of US gasoline reached the highest level since December 2021, and the refinery utilization rate reached the highest level since July 2024 [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [12][14][16] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc., from 2021 to 2025 [30][33][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [46][48][51] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spread charts between different varieties, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, etc. [63][67][69] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [74][75][78] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [80][81][82] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code are provided [85]