南下资金今日净买入港股50.36亿港元。 其中：净买入盈富基金16.74亿、信达生物6.51亿、美团-W 3.38亿、中芯国际3.17亿、重庆钢铁股份1.44亿、泡泡玛特1.22亿、三生制药1.09亿；净卖出阿里 巴巴-W 17.34亿、腾讯控股6.29亿、小米集团-W 3.69亿。 据统计，南下资金已连续23日净卖出腾讯，共计225.244亿港元；连续3日净卖出小米，共计37.3586亿港元；连续3日净卖出阿里巴巴，共计30.8214亿港元； 连续9日净买入中芯国际，共计59.433亿港元。 中芯国际：公司发布公告，于2025年6月5日-6月30日，根据股份计划发行合计12.49万股。 重庆钢铁股份：限产传闻再次搅动，钢铁概念股集体上涨。据我的钢铁网消息，关于"唐山7月4-15日烧结机限产30%"的传闻，Mysteel调研了解，目前约半 数钢厂表示有收到通知，剩余多数钢厂也表示大概率确实有。6月25日Mysteel烧结矿数据显示，唐山市12家钢铁企业（产能占比60%），烧结矿日产27万 吨，产能利用率83%；若按照计划执行限产政策后，产能利用率或将下降至70%，烧结矿日产或将减少3万吨。 三生制药：瑞银发表 ...

Core Insights - Southbound capital has significantly increased its presence in the Hong Kong stock market, with net inflows exceeding 730 billion HKD this year, marking a historical high for multiple indicators [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong market has shown strong performance in the first half of the year, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 20% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 18.68%, ranking among the top global indices [2]. - In the first half of the year, southbound capital recorded a net inflow of 731.19 billion HKD, the highest for the same period historically, second only to the full-year figure of 807.87 billion HKD in 2024 [2]. - Southbound capital has shown a "buy the dip" strategy, with 30 trading days seeing net inflows exceeding 10 billion HKD, even on days when the Hang Seng Index declined [3]. Group 2: Trading Activity - The trading volume of southbound capital has increased significantly, with its share of the total trading volume in the Hong Kong market rising from 2.98% in 2015 to over 43.12% in the first five months of this year [4]. - In April, southbound capital recorded a net inflow of 166.67 billion HKD, the second-highest monthly inflow in history [2]. Group 3: Policy Support - The increase in southbound capital allocation to Hong Kong stocks is supported by policy measures, including the expansion of eligible stocks for the Stock Connect programs and the extension of tax incentives until 2027 [4]. Group 4: Sector Performance - The banking sector has seen significant increases in holdings by southbound capital, with major banks like China Construction Bank and HSBC among the top beneficiaries [6]. - The Hang Seng Index for mainland Chinese banks rose by 25.94% in the first half of the year, outperforming other key indices [6]. Group 5: Valuation Opportunities - "A+H" bank stocks are attracting southbound capital due to their lower valuations and higher dividend yields in the Hong Kong market compared to their A-share counterparts [7]. - Among 15 "A+H" bank stocks, 13 have A-share premium rates exceeding 10%, indicating a strong preference for H-shares due to their relative value [7].

Core Insights - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market is entering a favorable trading period due to multiple positive factors, with the Hang Seng Index approaching its March high for the year [1] - The technology sector is expected to be a key driver for the next round of market uptrend, supported by a release of valuation pressure [1] - A more robust fundamental support and policy catalysts are necessary for a broader market recovery and increased investor participation [1] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,072, down 0.87% year-to-date but up 20% since the beginning of the year [3] - The report provides a comparative analysis of major global indices, indicating varied performance across different markets [3] - Key commodities and foreign exchange prices are also summarized, showing significant fluctuations in Brent crude oil and precious metals [3] Consumer Sector Analysis - The consumer market in China is experiencing a mild recovery trend, with essential consumption sectors showing resilience amid market volatility [4][5] - The report anticipates that the essential consumption sector will see improved profitability due to stable demand and inventory adjustments in the second half of 2025 [5] - Emerging consumer sub-sectors are expected to perform well, with specific recommendations for companies like Pop Mart and Mengniu [6] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that can capture consumer trends and have high growth potential in niche markets, such as Pop Mart [6] - Companies benefiting from policy stimuli and improved operational efficiency, like Mengniu and Midea, are also recommended [6] - Long-term growth prospects for leading companies in stable industries, such as Anta and China Resources Beer, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [6] Economic Data Insights - Upcoming economic data releases for the U.S. and China are outlined, including manufacturing indices and unemployment claims, which may impact market sentiment [8]

Core Insights - The core investment theme for the first half of 2025 revolves around opportunities in the Hong Kong stock market and the recovery of the pharmaceutical sector [1][2][3] Fund Performance - The top-performing fund for the first half of 2025 is the Huatai-PineBridge Hong Kong Advantage Select A, achieving a return of 85.64% [2][3] - Other notable funds include CITIC Construction Investment North Exchange Select Two-Year Open A with a return of 82.45% and Great Wall Pharmaceutical Industry Select A with a return of 75.18% [2][3] - Among the top ten funds, six are from CITIC Construction Investment, Huaxia, and Great Wall, focusing on the North Exchange or pharmaceutical sectors, all exceeding a 66% return [3] Pharmaceutical Sector Highlights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors have shown strong performance, with various funds achieving significant returns, such as the Bank of China Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical A at 70.08% and Ping An Pharmaceutical Select A at 58.80% [4][5] - The overall pharmaceutical index has risen by 26.74% year-to-date, with the innovative drug sector outperforming, showing a year-to-date increase of 24.83% [5][6] Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly in the innovative drug sector, has become a focal point for investors, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index showing a year-to-date increase of over 60% [7][9] - The innovative drug sector is expected to continue attracting investment due to favorable policies and commercial acceleration, with significant transactions in the sector reaching $45.5 billion in the first five months of the year [6][9] Future Outlook - The investment strategy for the second half of 2025 is anticipated to focus on growth sectors, particularly innovative drugs, with three main investment themes identified: commercialization in the domestic medical insurance market, international licensing of domestic innovative drugs, and capitalizing on industry cycles and valuation opportunities [4][5] - The overall valuation of the innovative drug sector remains reasonable, providing potential opportunities for investment despite previous market corrections [5][9]

海富通基金指出，港股估值当前处于历史相对低位，估值绝对水平远低于美欧日市场水平，性价比相对 较高。 汇添富基金表示，下半年港股走势或呈现"震荡上行+结构分化"格局。核心驱动因素包括宏观政策将聚 焦高质量发展、科技创新与内需提振，叠加稳增长政策加码，有望推动港股基本面修复；全年南向资金 净流入或突破万亿元规模，持续改善港股流动性。同时，海外区域性资金对港股关注度上升，若基本面 持续改善，外资配置比例有望从当前的低位逐步回升。 华夏基金认为，在国内经济复苏、AI业绩催化预期以及更多优质企业赴港上市的背景下，下半年恒生 科技的估值有望持续提升。而一旦有爆点事件催化，高弹性、高成长等特性也使其具备更大的向上动 能。 恒生指数高开0.96%，恒生科技指数涨1.07%。银河娱乐涨超9%，金沙中国涨6%，吉利汽车涨近5%。 关于港股后市 光大证券称，短期在流动性较难继续放松的背景下，结合A股财报披露扰动、中美关系仍有不确定性等 事件对风险偏好可能有所压制，港股市场可能呈现震荡走势。长期来看，港股整体盈利能力相对较强， 同时互联网、新消费、创新药等资产相对稀缺，结合当前估值仍偏低，长期配置性价比仍较高。 中信证券表示，在港股 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月28日 核心观点 金融工程周报 港股精选组合绩效回顾 本周，港股精选组合绝对收益 3.88%，相对恒生指数超额收益 0.68%。 **Acknowledgement** I am grateful to my supervisor, who has been a great advisor of my supervisor, who has been a great advisor of my supervisor. 本年，港股精选组合绝对收益 38.64%，相对恒生指数超额收益 17.59%。 港股市场创新高热点板块跟踪 我们根据分析师关注度、股价相对强弱、股价路径平稳性、创新高连续性等 角度在过去 20 个交易日创出过 250 日新高的股票池中筛选出平稳创新高股 票。 近期，美丽田园医疗健康等股票平稳创出新高。 按照板块来看，创新高股票数量最多的是大金融板块，其次为医药、科技、 周期和消费板块，具体个股信息可参照正文。 风险提示：市场环境变动风险，模型失效风险。 港股市场一周回顾 宽基指数方面，本周恒生小型股指数本周收益最高，累计收益 4.51%；恒生 大型股指数本周收益 ...

Core Viewpoint - Significant capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks has been observed this year, with net purchases from southbound funds exceeding 650 billion yuan [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Hong Kong stock ETF market has seen substantial growth, particularly in technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and dividend ETFs, which have performed well this year [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF has increased by over 23 billion yuan, doubling its size in just six months, making it the largest Hong Kong stock ETF by scale [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology 30 ETF has grown by over 14 billion yuan, nearly tripling its size since the beginning of the year [3] - The top-performing ETFs in terms of added scale include the Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF, Technology 30 ETF, and Innovative Pharmaceuticals ETF, with significant annual returns [4][15] Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - The surge in technology ETFs is attributed to the recent technology market rally, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 19.94% as of June 25 [4] - The design mechanisms, scale, and fee structures of these ETFs play a crucial role in their attractiveness to investors [6][18] - The success of the Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF is notable, as it was launched during a challenging period for the internet sector, yet it has become the most attractive ETF this year [7][9] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Not all technology ETFs have experienced similar growth; performance differences often depend on product characteristics and the marketing capabilities of fund companies [5] - The competitive landscape among fund companies is intensifying, with successful products often sharing common factors such as strategic product design and low fee rates [18][19] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology 30 ETF has gained traction due to its lower management fee of 0.45%, compared to the industry average of 0.5% [13][19] Group 4: Institutional Investment Trends - Institutional investors have increasingly favored the Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF, with their share rising from 27.95% in 2021 to 96.66% in 2022 [10] - The trend of institutional investment in Hong Kong stocks is supported by favorable policies encouraging long-term capital inflow [11] Group 5: Sector-Specific Insights - The innovative pharmaceutical sector has shown significant strength this year, with ETFs tracking this sector experiencing substantial inflows and high annual returns [15][17] - The performance of ETFs tracking the innovative pharmaceutical index has been strong, contributing to their attractiveness to investors [17]

Quantitative Models and Factor Analysis Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: Hang Seng Stock Connect Index (HSISC) **Model Construction Idea**: The index selects all eligible securities from the Hang Seng Index constituents that qualify for Stock Connect, aiming to reflect the overall performance of these stocks traded via Stock Connect[26] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Sample Space**: Constituents of the Hang Seng Index (base index)[26] 2. **Selection Criteria**: All securities eligible for Stock Connect[26] 3. **Adjustment Mechanism**: - **Regular Adjustments**: Quarterly adjustments to the index sample[26] - **Temporary Adjustments**: Replacement based on changes in the base index and Stock Connect eligibility[26] **Model Evaluation**: The index demonstrates high elasticity, providing significant beta returns during market uptrends[27] Quantitative Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Technical Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the exposure of the Hang Seng Stock Connect Index to technical indicators relative to the Hang Seng Index[38] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Analyze the factor exposure of the Hang Seng Stock Connect Index relative to the Hang Seng Index[38] 2. Quantify the exposure value for the technical factor, which is -0.066[38] **Factor Evaluation**: The index shows notable exposure to technical factors, along with other factors such as profitability, dividends, and volatility[38] Backtesting Results of Models - **Hang Seng Stock Connect Index**: - **Cumulative Return**: 49.92%[29] - **Annualized Return**: 39.22%[29] - **Annualized Volatility**: 24.48%[29] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.60[29] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 20.08%[29] Backtesting Results of Factors - **Technical Factor**: Exposure value of -0.066[38] - **Profitability Factor**: Exposure value of -0.029[38] - **Dividend Factor**: Exposure value of 0.026[38] - **Volatility Factor**: Exposure value of 0.022[38] Additional Metrics for the Hang Seng Stock Connect Index - **Valuation Metrics**: - Price-to-Earnings (PE): 10.08x[40] - Price-to-Book (PB): 1.08x[40] - **Profitability**: Return on Equity (ROE): 10.63%[42] - **Liquidity**: Trading volume accounts for 52% of the Hang Seng Composite Index, with a historical low congestion percentile of 9%[45] - **Dividend Yield**: 4.76%, higher than the CSI All Share Index (2.68%) and CSI 300 Index (3.59%)[49]

Core Viewpoint - The recent "624" rally is reminiscent of last year's "924" event, with Hong Kong's tech index outperforming the Hang Seng Tech index significantly since April 2023 [1][4]. Performance Comparison - Since the "924" rally, the Hong Kong tech index has increased by 49.75%, outperforming the Hang Seng Tech index by nearly 6 percentage points; since the low on April 8, 2023, it has risen by 21.54% [3][4]. - The Hang Seng Tech index has shown a growth of 20.37% since April 8, 2023, and 43.26% since September 24, 2022 [4]. Sector Analysis - The Hong Kong tech index benefits from a larger number of constituent stocks (50) compared to the Hang Seng Tech index (30), which contributes to its superior performance [4]. - The strong performance of innovative pharmaceuticals within the Hong Kong tech index, which accounts for 8.5% of the index, has also contributed to its outperformance [4]. Investment Recommendations - For investors looking to invest in Hong Kong stocks, the Hong Kong tech index should be prioritized over the Hang Seng Tech index [5]. - The Hong Kong Tech 50 ETF (159750) has gained 0.69% recently and is a popular choice among investors, offering T+0 trading convenience [5][6]. ETF Performance - The Hong Kong Tech 50 ETF has increased by 50.15% since the "924" rally and 12.78% since April 8, 2023, with multiple recent highs [6][8]. - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520550) has also performed well, with a 17.69% increase since the "924" rally and 19.86% since April 8, 2023, achieving 35 new historical highs this year [6][8].

Core Insights - Insurance funds are increasingly shifting towards the Hong Kong stock market due to a low interest rate environment and asset scarcity pressures, with 51% of overseas investment allocated to Hong Kong [1][4][7] - By 2025, 63% of institutions plan to increase their investment in Hong Kong stocks, primarily through the Stock Connect program [1][7] - The strategic positioning of Hong Kong as a mature financial market with low exchange rate risk and strong liquidity makes it the preferred choice for insurance funds [4][10] Investment Trends - The survey conducted by the China Insurance Asset Management Association indicates that 38 out of 52 insurance institutions are engaged in overseas investment, with a significant focus on Hong Kong [3][4] - The average holding period for investments in Hong Kong stocks is approximately 1.09 years, with major investments directed towards traditional sectors such as finance, energy, and telecommunications [8][9] - As of the end of 2024, the investment balance in the Hong Kong stock market by insurance companies is projected to reach 810.5 billion yuan, with 99 insurance companies participating in the Stock Connect program [7][10] Future Outlook - The anticipated growth in insurance funds' investment in Hong Kong is expected to be driven by the combination of high safety margins, policy benefits, and yield flexibility [10] - The Stock Connect mechanism enhances investment efficiency and liquidity in the Hong Kong market, making it an attractive option for insurance funds seeking stable returns [9][10] - Geopolitical risks, exchange rate fluctuations, and foreign exchange restrictions are identified as primary factors influencing overseas investment decisions [9]