2025 年 04 月 18 日 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：价格承压 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong013179@gtjas.com | 铝、氧化铝基本面数据更新 | | --- | | | | T | T-1 | 1-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 19645 | 100 | -160 | -1280 | 80 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 19730 | ー | ー | l | l | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2385 | -4 | 1 ୧ | -306 | -107 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 147942 | 7211 | -75186 | -15286 | -12002 | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 218124 | -2802 | 88452 | -44712 | 71498 | | 电解铝 | LME铝3M成交量 | 10519 | -854 | -11282 | -6664 | -9826 | | | LME注销仓 ...

Group 1: Carbon Market Expansion - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has issued a notice to strengthen management of carbon emissions trading, marking the first expansion of the national carbon market to include the steel, cement, and aluminum industries [2][4] - The transition period from 2024 to 2026 allows companies to prepare for stricter carbon constraints while focusing on upgrading technology and increasing the use of clean energy [4][5] - The carbon market expansion is expected to create a "butterfly effect," prompting the steel industry to adopt green technologies and phase out inefficient production [2][5] Group 2: Steel Industry Implications - The steel industry is expected to face new challenges and opportunities due to the carbon market expansion, with a focus on reducing carbon emissions and improving energy efficiency [5][6] - Companies like Baosteel anticipate a carbon emissions gap of approximately 100,000 tons annually, translating to a compliance cost of around 10 million yuan, which is manageable for overall operations [4][5] - The new policies will encourage steel companies to innovate and adopt advanced energy-saving technologies, ultimately leading to a more competitive and sustainable industry [5][7] Group 3: Cement Industry Readiness - Major cement companies such as Conch Cement and Tianshan Cement are well-prepared for the carbon market integration, viewing it as an opportunity to accelerate the exit of inefficient capacity and promote high-quality development [11][12] - The short-term impact on the cement industry is expected to be minimal, but long-term effects will include significant changes in production operations, data management, and investment in energy-saving technologies [13][14] - The introduction of carbon trading mechanisms is anticipated to reshape the competitive landscape of the cement industry, favoring companies with energy efficiency and carbon management capabilities [11][12] Group 4: Aluminum Industry Developments - The aluminum industry is also facing new pressures and opportunities as it enters the carbon market, with a focus on reducing emissions and enhancing energy efficiency [16][18] - The shift towards low-carbon aluminum production is expected to accelerate, with recycled aluminum becoming increasingly attractive due to its significantly lower carbon emissions compared to traditional methods [20][21] - Companies like Zhong Aluminum International are exploring new business opportunities in energy-saving technologies and the development of recycled aluminum, positioning themselves for future growth in a low-carbon economy [19][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the environmental protection industry [1]. Core Insights - The national carbon market has expanded to include the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries, with a gradual tightening of quotas expected [8]. - There is a focus on garbage incineration to support ultra-low PUE zero-carbon projects, highlighting collaboration opportunities with IDC [9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of cash flow asset value reassessment in a low-interest-rate environment [17]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The carbon market expansion will cover over 60% of national carbon emissions, adding approximately 1,500 new enterprises and increasing carbon emissions coverage by about 3 billion tons [8]. - The distribution of quotas will be based on verified actual emissions, ensuring no shortfall for enterprises in 2024, with a balanced quota system for 2025 and 2026 [8]. Company Tracking - Green Power's dividend payout ratio for 2024 is raised to 71.45%, with a projected revenue of 3.399 billion yuan, a 14% decrease year-on-year [4]. - Yongxing Co. is expected to see a revenue increase of 65% to 3.765 billion yuan in 2024, with a significant rise in free cash flow [4]. Collaboration Opportunities - The report discusses three collaboration models for garbage incineration and IDC, highlighting the economic advantages and potential return on equity (ROE) increases [12]. - The collaboration is expected to enhance profitability and cash flow for garbage incineration companies, shifting their business model from government to business [15]. Market Performance - The environmental protection and public utilities index fell by 2.12%, underperforming the broader market [47]. - The report lists top-performing stocks in the environmental sector, with notable gains for companies like Huanhong Technology and Hanlan Environment [51].

Market Overview - The US announced a 25% tariff on all non-American manufactured cars, effective April 2, which is expected to generate an additional $100 billion in annual revenue for the US government[11] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.04% to 3368.7 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.05% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.26%[1] - The Hang Seng Index closed up 0.6% at 23483.32 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 1.01% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 0.44%[1] Economic Indicators - The S&P 500 Index fell by 1.12% to 5712.2 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.31%[1] - The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped by 2.04%[1] - The European stock indices showed mixed results, with some indices closing higher and others lower[1] Trade Relations - Trump indicated a willingness to consider lowering tariffs on China in exchange for support in the sale of TikTok's US operations to an American company[11] - The tariffs are part of a broader strategy to encourage other countries to reduce trade barriers and address the US trade deficit[11] Economic Stimulus - Chinese central bank advisor Huang Yiping stated that if economic growth loses momentum, the government is prepared to deploy more stimulus measures[11] - The Chinese economy has shown a good start this year, with a focus on structural reforms and boosting consumer and business confidence[11] Carbon Market Expansion - China announced an expansion of its national carbon emissions trading market to include the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries, potentially adding 1500 key emission units and covering over 60% of national CO2 emissions[11]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the general rise in commodity prices, with a strong performance in iron ore, amidst ongoing discussions between China and the U.S. regarding trade relations and tariffs [1] Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures closed mostly higher, with energy and chemical products rising nearly 1%, and black metals showing an overall increase, particularly iron ore which rose by 1.48% [1] - Agricultural products showed mixed results, while basic metals experienced varied movements, with nickel up by 0.57% and copper down by 1.08% [1] Group 2: Key Commodities - **Apple**: The futures market for apples surged due to changes in delivery warehouses, with a reported cold storage inventory of 5.0061 million tons, a decrease of 234,500 tons from the previous week [2][35] - **Iron Ore**: Despite weak performance expectations due to supply-side changes, iron ore demand is expected to recover marginally as steel mills show strong recovery momentum [3][27] - **Urea**: Urea futures continued to rise slightly, with market prices in Shandong ranging from 1,850 to 1,900 yuan per ton, supported by demand and inventory reduction [3][34] Group 3: Domestic and International News - **International News**: The Federal Reserve's warning about potential inflation expectations disrupting interest rate plans highlights the uncertainty in the U.S. bond market [5] - **Domestic News**: The Ministry of Commerce announced measures to support the development of international consumption centers in major cities, aiming to enhance the consumption environment [6] - **Industry News**: The expansion of the national carbon emissions trading market to include steel, cement, and aluminum industries, covering over 60% of national CO2 emissions, indicates a significant regulatory shift [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US is about to impose copper and reciprocal tariffs, which will lead to a general decline in non - ferrous metals. However, the impact on different metals varies. For example, the market for copper will quickly adjust the price difference, and the upward trend of copper prices may be near the end [2]. - The alumina market is expected to be volatile. Although the number of alumina plant overhauls is increasing, the impact on monthly production is limited. There is a possibility of a marginal decline in alumina production capacity from April to May [5][8]. - The aluminum market is supported by strong domestic demand. Despite the expected tariff increase in the US, LME aluminum shows a narrow - range sideways movement. Domestic aluminum processing enterprises'开工 rate is rising, and the demand for aluminum profiles is expected to be boosted [14][17][18]. - The zinc market is in a state of range - bound oscillation. Although there is an expectation of a large increase in zinc ingot supply, the current inventory is relatively low, and domestic consumption is expected to be boosted by policies [21][23]. - The lead market is affected by factors such as high prices of waste batteries and changes in supply and demand. The price of lead is running at a high level, but the profit of secondary lead smelters is shrinking, and there is a certain willingness to reduce production [26][28]. - The nickel market is expected to be strong in the short - term. The price of nickel ore is expected to be firm due to concerns about policies and production shortages. However, in the medium - term, high prices may stimulate over - supply [31][32]. - The stainless - steel market is affected by raw material prices and demand. The price of NPI is relatively high, and the supply of 300 - series stainless steel is still tight, but the upward space is gradually narrowing [38][39]. - The tin market is in a state of high - level wide - range oscillation. The shortage of tin concentrate is intensified, but the possible resumption of production in Wa State may relieve the supply pressure to some extent in the future [44][48]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to decline. The rumor of joint production cuts by industrial silicon manufacturers is false, and the market is in a state of oversupply with weak demand [50][54]. - The polysilicon market is expected to be volatile. Although there is information about production cuts, the overall supply pressure is not large, and the market may be affected by factors such as inventory and demand expectations [56][58]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to decline. The price of lithium carbonate may continue to fall due to factors such as a decrease in imported ore prices and weak demand [63][64]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2504 contract closed at 81,980 yuan, up 0.4%, and the open interest of the Shanghai copper index increased by 13,455 lots. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [2]. - **Important Information**: The US may impose copper tariffs soon, and Glencore has suspended copper shipments from its Chilean smelter [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US copper tariff will lead to a price adjustment in the market, and the upward trend of copper prices may end. Trend - following long positions should all be liquidated [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close long positions for single - side trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [2]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2504 contract rose 34 yuan/ton to 3,090 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the weighted index decreased. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [4]. - **Related Information**: Some alumina plants are undergoing overhauls, and the inventory of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased [5][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: The increase in overhauls has limited impact on monthly production. The price of alumina is expected to be volatile before substantial production cuts [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short when the price rebounds after substantial production cuts; wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [9][11]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2504 contract closed at 20,700 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [13]. - **Related Information**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the main markets decreased, and a green - power aluminum project in Inner Mongolia is under construction. The carbon - emission trading market is expanding, and the US is considering tariff strategies [14][15]. - **Trading Logic**: The overseas macro - environment is volatile, but domestic demand is strong, which supports the price of aluminum [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price of aluminum is expected to be in a high - level range - bound state in the short - term; wait and see for options trading [19]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2505 contract rose 0.06% to 24,155 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index increased. The spot market trading sentiment in Shanghai was not high [20]. - **Related Information**: The global zinc market is in a state of supply shortage, and some mining projects are expected to be put into production [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Although there is an expectation of a large increase in supply, the current low inventory and domestic policies may support consumption, and the price is in a range - bound state [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price may be in a wide - range oscillation in the short - term and bearish in the long - term; wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [24]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2505 contract rose 0.48% to 17,615 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased. The spot market trading was light [25]. - **Related Information**: The global lead market shows a change in supply and demand, and the domestic electric bicycle replacement policy has an impact on consumption [26]. - **Logic Analysis**: The high price of waste batteries leads to a reduction in the profit of secondary lead smelters, but domestic consumption is expected to be boosted [28]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price of lead is running at a high level due to market sentiment; wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [29]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel main contract 2505 rose 700 to 129,670 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index increased. The spot price of nickel showed different trends [30]. - **Related Information**: The Intercontinental Exchange plans to launch derivatives of cobalt, spodumene, and nickel. The production of an MHP project in Indonesia is affected by floods [31]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of nickel is expected to be strong in the short - term due to factors such as raw material shortages, but there is limited upward space in the medium - term [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, take a bearish view when the price rebounds [33]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2505 contract rose 50 to 13,410 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased. The spot price of stainless steel is within a certain range [35]. - **Important Information**: A stainless - steel plant has started producing 304 materials, and India is considering a safeguard measure tariff on steel imports [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of raw materials is relatively high, and the supply of 300 - series stainless steel is tight, but the upward space is limited [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the bottom of the price is rising, but the upward space is also limited; wait and see for arbitrage trading [40][41]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2504 contract closed at 277,650 yuan/ton, up 3460 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price of tin rose [43]. - **Related Information**: The production of a tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) has stopped, and Wa State has issued a document on the resumption of tin mining [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The shortage of tin concentrate is intensified, but the possible resumption of production in Wa State may relieve the supply pressure in the future, and the price is in a high - level wide - range oscillation [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price of tin is in a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and the risk of price decline; wait and see for options trading [49]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 9780 yuan/ton, down 1.31%. The spot price is stable [50]. - **Related Information**: A project of an organic silicon company has been put into production [51]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The rumor of joint production cuts is false, and the market is in a state of oversupply with weak demand, and the price may decline [54]. - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price may decline after the false rumor of production cuts; no strategy for options and arbitrage trading [55]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures price closed at 43,640 yuan/ton, down 0.26%. The spot price is within a certain range [56]. - **Related Information**: Henan Province has launched a new batch of source - network - load - storage integration projects [57]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The overall supply pressure of polysilicon is not large, and the market may be affected by factors such as inventory and demand expectations, and the price may be volatile [58]. - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, go long at low prices; sell out - of - the - money put options; conduct positive arbitrage for PS2506 and PS2511 contracts and reverse arbitrage for PS2511 and PS2512 contracts [59][61]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2505 contract rose 520 to 74,480 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased. The spot price is stable [62]. - **Important Information**: The Intercontinental Exchange plans to launch derivatives, and some lithium - related projects are under construction [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of lithium carbonate may continue to fall due to factors such as a decrease in imported ore prices and weak demand [64]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, take a bearish view when the price rebounds; wait and see for arbitrage trading; consider holding 2505 put ratio options [65][67].