新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-22 消息端扰动较多，盘面受消息扰动加大 市场分析 2025年5月21日，碳酸锂主力合约2507开于61060元/吨，收于61100元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价收涨0.59%。当 日成交量为270174手，持仓量为329205手，较前一交易日减少10468手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货贴水电碳1950 元/吨。所有合约总持仓571450手，较前一交易日增加11744手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日增加26820手，成 交量增加，整体投机度为0.5。当日碳酸锂仓单36393手，较上个交易日减少152手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年5月21日电池级碳酸锂报价6.13-6.48万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.02万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价6.095-6.195万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.015万元/吨。碳酸锂现货成交价格重心持续下行。当前 碳酸锂市场延续弱势运行格局，价格持续承压。从当前市场成交情况来看，以贸易商与下游材料厂之间的成交为 主，但成交寥寥。下游材料厂在客供及长协比例较高的情况下，等待价格的进一步下探。上游锂盐厂虽挺价情绪 持续，但考虑到目前锂 ...

2025 年 5 月 22 日 商 品 研 究 | 碳酸锂：锂盐厂减产，并未影响资源端，上方仍然 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 承压 | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi@gtht.com | 邵婉嫕 | | | | | | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 liuhongru@gtht.com | | | | | | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | T-22 | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | | T-66 | | 2507合约（收盘价） | | 61,100 | 240 | -4,100 | -3,060 | -9,280 | -16,820 | | 2507合约（成交量） | | 270,174 | 27,898 | -107,351 | 66,360 | 213,449 | 266,264 | | | | 250 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that lithium carbonate futures are experiencing a downward trend, with a significant bearish sentiment in the market. As of May 20, the main contract for lithium carbonate has dropped to 60,860 yuan/ton [2] - The decline in lithium carbonate prices is attributed to increased cost optimization from industry chain integration and a continuous decrease in raw material prices, leading to weakened cost support for lithium carbonate [2] - Despite favorable macro policies, the lack of substantial demand support has prevented lithium carbonate prices from rebounding [2] Group 2 - Current downstream demand for lithium carbonate remains stable, with April demand recorded at 89,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2,625 tons and a year-on-year growth of 33.9%. May demand is expected to be 88,600 tons [3] - High inventory levels are exerting pressure on the market, with total inventory increasing to 131,900 tons as of May 15, including significant accumulation in upstream smelting plants [3] - The supply side remains relaxed, with upstream production recovering and overseas mineral arrivals increasing, maintaining significant supply pressure despite some production cuts in April and May [2][3] Group 3 - The market outlook for lithium carbonate remains weak, with supply-demand imbalances highlighted. Although supply pressure is expected to ease slightly in May, the downward trend in raw material costs is reducing support for prices [4] - The futures price is anticipated to test the 60,000 yuan/ton level, and if it breaks below this threshold, it may trigger accelerated declines in the market [4] - Overall, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures is expected to trade weakly within the range of 58,000 to 63,000 yuan/ton [4]

2025 年 5 月 20 日 商 品 研 究 资料来源：国泰君安期货、同花顺、Mysteel、SMM、Fastmarkets 【宏观及行业新闻】 | | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | | | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | | | | liuhongru@gtht.com | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | | | 2507合约（收盘价） | 61,180 | -620 | -2,860 | -4,780 | -9,660 | -17,740 | | | | 2507合约（成交量） | 224,064 | -81,532 | -89,870 | 109,526 | 182,140 | 217,886 | ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View - Due to the weak fundamentals of lithium carbonate remaining unimproved, with spot - end transactions mainly between traders and downstream enterprises and lithium salt manufacturers mainly holding prices, in the short term, the lithium carbonate futures price shows a rebound after a long - term decline. However, the oversupply pattern remains unchanged, the visible inventory continues to accumulate, the downstream purchasing willingness has not increased, the ore - end price continues to decline, and the lithium carbonate price remains weak [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 64,700 yuan, up 100 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 63,050 yuan, up 100 yuan [1] Lithium Futures Contracts - Carbonate lithium 2505 closed at 64,780 yuan, up 2.5%; carbonate lithium 2506 at 65,140 yuan, up 2.65%; carbonate lithium 2507 at 65,200 yuan, up 3%; carbonate lithium 2508 at 66,120 yuan, up 2.64%; carbonate lithium 2509 at 66,280 yuan, up 2.57% [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 713 yuan, down 1 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 760 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1360 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 6300 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 7340 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - Lithium iron phosphate (power type) average price is 31,445 yuan, up 50 yuan; ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 146,070 yuan, down 10 yuan; ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 116,375 yuan, up 20 yuan; ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 123,325 yuan, down 10 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1650 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 500 yuan, down 1880 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 60 yuan, down 80 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 980 yuan, up 180 yuan [2] Inventory - Total inventory (weekly, tons) is 131,569 tons, down 464 tons; smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 54,852 tons, up 3819 tons; downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 42,156 tons, down 3013 tons; other inventory (weekly, tons) is 34,561 tons, down 1270 tons; registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 36,716 tons, up 272 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 68,000 yuan, and the profit is - 4192 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally and the profit are not clearly presented in a complete form [3] Company News - On May 12, CATL disclosed its H - share prospectus, H - share issue price cap, H - share Hong Kong public offering, etc., and is expected to be listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 20. The issue price range cap of CATL's H - share IPO is HK$263 per share, and a total of 118 million shares are planned to be issued. With the full exercise of relevant rights, the estimated total fundraising is US$4 - 5 billion (about RMB 28.95 - 36.19 billion) [3]

二 〇 二 四 年 度 2025 年 5 月 11 日 碳酸锂：终端需求回落，上游成本快速塌陷， 偏弱震荡 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi020696@gtjas.com 报告导读： 本周价格走势：单边回落，在 6.29 万元/吨附近出现空头减仓，基差走强 碳酸锂 LC2507 合约回落，期间减仓企稳，尔后加仓下跌。2507 合约收于 63020 元/吨，周环比下跌 3240 元/吨，2509 合约收于 64300 元/吨，周环比下跌 3360 元/吨，现货周环比下跌 3000 元/吨为 65250 元/吨。SMM 期现基差（2505 合约）走强 240 元/吨至 2230 元/吨，富宝贸易商升贴水报价+360 元 /吨，周环比走强 60 元/吨。2507-2509 合约价差-1280 元/吨，环比+120 元/吨。 供需基本面：终端需求回落，上游成本快速塌陷 供应：本周锂矿价格延续下跌趋势，并且下跌速度进一步加大，国内 SMM 矿价报 725 美元/吨， fastmarkets 最新成交价低至 680 美元/吨，矿端价格回落带动锂价回落。锂矿价格虽持续下跌，但澳洲 矿山企业 ...

4月26日，作为锂电产业的核心原材料，碳酸锂期货主力合约继周初跌破7万元大关后，进一步跌至 6.784万元(吨价，下同)。数据显示，今年以来碳酸锂期货跌幅达到14%。 上海钢联新能源事业部锂业分析师郑晓强表示，目前整体锂矿供应持续放量，且海内外盐湖提锂产能也 在同步扩张，预计碳酸锂价格后续还会震荡走低。 价格再创新低 2020年，全球新能源浪潮席卷而来，碳酸锂价格从4万元疯狂涨至60万元。2023年7月21日，碳酸锂期货 在广期所上市，当时上市开盘价高达21.8万元。然而，仅过两年时间，碳酸锂期货价格就从20万元跌至 目前不足7万元，跌幅高达68%。 忧虑，进一步抑制了需求。据Mysteel不完全统计，截至4月中旬，港口和国内锂矿石库存为6.85万吨， 环比上涨0.15万吨。 4月以来，美国政府的对等关税政策冲击锂电市场。对于我国锂电产业而言，今年的多轮关税新政，加 上美国已生效的对中国电池产品征收3.4%的基础关税，以及301条款25%的关税，使中国动力电池与储 能电池短期内对美出口综合税率从132.4%/114.9%飙升至153.4%/135.9%。 美国是中国锂电池出口的最大市场，受关税政策及贸易打压影 ...

大宗商品研究所 有色金属研发报告 碳酸锂 05 月报 2025 年 4 月 30 日 成本支撑下移 打开锂价下行空间 第一部分 回顾与展望 碳酸锂价格春节前出现 8.1 万高点后已经下跌了 15%，最低跌破 6.8 万，而每次新低后 的反弹高度越来越低。4 月清明节后跳空低开，高点 7.2 万附近，此后震荡走弱，最低 67500 元/吨。 需求端，中美互加关税导致美国本土新能源汽车消费市场及供应链受到冲击，传导至 国内外销占比高的三元正极厂订单可能受损，同时国内储能 531 抢装对碳酸锂的采购已于 3 月结束，出口至美国又面临提前而来的天量关税，储能订单出现转弱迹象。正极厂 4 月排 产环比微幅增长，价格大跌时也有一定采购，但表现仍然较为克制，并未出现低价囤货的 行为。 供应端，4 月产量先增后减，部分冶炼厂安排年度检修，部分买不到（低价）矿或亏 损减产。冶炼厂减产倒逼矿价下跌，澳矿 CIF 价格已经跌破 800 美元/吨，市场预期继续下 行至 750 美元/吨。今年以来智利出口至中国的碳酸锂部分未进行清关，积压在保税库，因 此中国进口量和智利出口有一定差距。4 月国内供应虽然因减产因素可能低于此前排产计 划 ...