Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1] Core Viewpoints - On October 9, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium decreased. Both supply and demand were strong. The inventory pressure of upstream producers was not significant. The expectation of lithium ore supply contraction weakened, and the downstream inventory reached its peak. The demand inflection point had arrived. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. Wait for the situation after Jiangxi's mining end submits the reserve report [1] - The trading strategy is to suggest waiting and seeing [1] Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market Data - Futures contract closing prices: The closing price of the near - month contract was 72,740 yuan/ton, the first - continuous contract was 72,860 yuan/ton, the second - continuous contract was 72,860 yuan/ton, and the third - continuous contract was 72,880 yuan/ton [1] - Futures trading volume and open interest: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 361,093 lots (+43,635), and the open interest was 229,022 lots (-2,942) [1] - Inventory: The registered warehouse receipt inventory was 42,379 tons (+670), and the social inventory decreased. The inventory of smelting plants, downstream, and others decreased [1] - Spreads: The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was 240 yuan/ton (-60), the spread between the first - and second - continuous contracts was -40 yuan/ton (-20), and the spread between the second - and third - continuous contracts was 0 yuan/ton (+40) [1] - Basis: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was 750 yuan/ton (-540) [1] Spot Market Data - Lithium ore prices: Lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) average price was 843 US dollars/ton (-15), lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) average price was 1,110 yuan/ton (-15), lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) average price was 1,835 yuan/ton (-20), etc. [1] - Lithium compound prices: Battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) average price was 73,550 yuan/ton (0), industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) average price was 71,300 yuan/ton (0), etc. [1] - Other battery material prices: The average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 90,450 yuan/ton (+3,500), the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 122,350 yuan/ton (+1,500), etc. [1] Supply and Demand Information - Supply: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased [1] - Demand: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In September, the scheduled production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increased. Last week, the production of power batteries increased. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down. The 3C product shipments were average. In September, the scheduled production of energy - storage batteries increased [1] Industry News - German resource company Neptune Energy announced that an international evaluation company found that the lithium ore resources in the Altmark region of Saxony - Anhalt, Germany, had a lithium carbonate equivalent of 43 million tons. The company plans to produce battery - grade lithium from local brine lithium resources using the DLE direct lithium extraction method [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On September 18, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated downward. The current market trading was weak, the basis changed from discount to premium, the price of spodumene concentrate increased, and the price of lithium mica remained flat. Both supply and demand were strong, the upstream inventory pressure was not significant, and the resumption of production of spodumene mines was actively progressing, weakening the expectation of supply contraction. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of downstream replenishment. The trading strategy suggests shorting on rallies [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - On September 18, 2025, the trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 502,269 (+158,406), and the open interest was 281,411 (-13,213). The closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts all decreased compared to the previous day. The price differences between different contracts and the basis also showed certain changes [1]. Spot Market - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 570 yuan/ton higher than the closing price of the active lithium carbonate contract. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 844 US dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica remained unchanged. The prices of various lithium - related products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate also had different degrees of changes [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply side: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials all increased. Demand side: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium manganate powder increased, and the production of power batteries was basically flat. In September, the production of lithium manganate powder and the production plan of lithium manganate increased. Terminal demand: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, the 3C shipments were average, and the production plan of energy - storage batteries increased in September [1]. Inventory - On September 18, 2025, the registered warehouse receipts were 39,354 tons (+120), the social inventory decreased, the inventory of smelters and others decreased, and the downstream inventory was tight [1]. Industry News - Bandera now expects to achieve a post - tax net present value of $1.45 billion (previously estimated at $1.31 billion) due to increased reserves and mine design optimization. Saycona Mining's expansion plan for the North American Lithium (NAL) project in Quebec, Canada, will significantly improve project economics by increasing production and reducing costs. The annual average output of spodumene concentrate will increase from 192,000 tons to 315,000 tons, and the unit cost will decrease [1].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The current supply and demand are both weak, with little inventory pressure upstream. As the resumption of lithium mines is approaching actively, the expectation of supply contraction is weakening. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level, and it is necessary to wait for the downstream restocking point. The trading strategy is to short on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures Market - **Prices**: On September 17, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures all increased compared to the previous day. For example, the near - month contract closed at 73,500 yuan/ton, up 440 yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume was 343,863 lots (- 156,404), and the open interest was 294,624 lots (- 5,813) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 39,234 tons, an increase of 410 tons from the previous day [1]. - **Spreads**: The basis of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price minus the closing price of the active lithium carbonate contract was - 490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Lithium - Related Commodity Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 857 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars from the previous day; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) remained at 1,105 yuan/ton [1]. - **Lithium Compounds**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%, domestic) was 73,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan from the previous day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%, domestic) was 70,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Other Lithium - Related Products**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate also showed different degrees of change [1]. 3.3 Market News - Pantera Lithium's shareholders voted overwhelmingly in favor of selling its subsidiary Daytona Lithium Pty Ltd to Energy Exploration Technologies (EnergyX). EnergyX is advancing its Lonestar Lithium project in New Markover, and this acquisition will further expand its resource reserves in the Smackover area, where the lithium resource volume may exceed 4 million tons [1]. 3.4 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials all increased. The cost of lithium spodumene concentrate increased, while the price of lithium mica remained flat [1]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, and the production of ternary materials decreased. In September, the trial production and scheduled production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of new - energy vehicle production slowed down, 3C shipments were average, and the scheduled production of energy - storage batteries increased in September [1]. 3.5 Inventory Situation - The registered warehouse receipts were 39,234 tons (+ 410 tons), the social inventory decreased, the inventories of smelters and other sectors decreased, and the downstream inventory increased [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 16, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures opened high and closed low. The spot market had weak trading volume, and the discount even widened. The price of spodumene concentrate increased, while the price of mica also rose. Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials all rose. In terms of downstream demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, while the production of ternary materials decreased. In September, the planned production of lithium carbonate and lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. Terminal demand showed that the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down in August, and the 3C shipments were average. The planned production of energy storage batteries increased in September. The registered warehouse inventory decreased, and social inventory decreased. Smelters and other sectors reduced inventory, while downstream sectors increased inventory. Currently, both supply and demand are strong, and the upstream inventory pressure is not significant. The expected supply contraction is weakening as the resumption of lithium mines is progressing actively. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. Investors should be vigilant about the downstream restocking point [1]. - The trading strategy suggests short - selling on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Contract Closing Prices**: On September 16, the closing prices of the near - month contract, continuous - one contract, continuous - two contract, and continuous - three contract of lithium carbonate futures were 73060 yuan/ton, 73180 yuan/ton, 73340 yuan/ton, and 73340 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 540 yuan/ton, 500 yuan/ton, 460 yuan/ton, and 460 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 500267 hands (+17477), and the open interest was 300437 hands (-9009) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 38824 tons (-139 tons) [1]. - **Spreads**: The spread between the near - month and continuous - one contracts was - 120 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), the spread between the continuous - one and continuous - two contracts was - 160 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), and the spread between the continuous - two and continuous - three contracts was 0 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was - 330 yuan/ton (-100 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 853 US dollars/ton (+5 US dollars/ton), the average price of lithium mica (Li2O:1.5% - 2.0%) was 1075 yuan/ton (-82.5 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium mica (Li2O:2.0% - 2.5%) was 1815 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), the average price of amblygonite (Li2O:6% - 7%) was 6090 yuan/ton (+115 yuan/ton), and the average price of amblygonite (Li2O:7% - 8%) was 7065 yuan/ton (-135 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Lithium Compound Prices**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 72850 yuan/ton (+400 yuan/ton), the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) was 70600 yuan/ton (+400 yuan/ton), the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 9.3 US dollars/kg (unchanged), the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse - grained/domestic) was 74050 yuan/ton (-100 yuan/ton), and the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% micronized/domestic) was 79020 yuan/ton (-100 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Other Lithium - Related Product Prices**: The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95%/domestic) was 56650 yuan/ton (+150 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 81250 yuan/ton (+600 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 79125 yuan/ton (+300 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 74675 yuan/ton (+225 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) was 93800 yuan/ton (+300 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 119650 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 114375 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 118325 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) was 146650 yuan/ton (+750 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) was 33470 yuan/ton (+95 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy - storage type) was 32075 yuan/ton (+95 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy - storage type) was 29300 yuan/ton (+100 yuan/ton), and the average price of lithium cobalt oxide (60%, 4.35V/domestic) was 231500 yuan/ton (+750 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Cobalt - Related Product Prices**: The average price of electrolytic cobalt (≥99.8%/imported) was 273000 yuan/ton (unchanged), the average price of cobalt sulfate (≥20.5%/domestic) was 57400 yuan/ton (+725 yuan/ton), and the average price of tricobalt tetroxide (≥72.8%/domestic) was 226500 yuan/ton (+1500 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The inventory of smelters was 36213 tons (-3262 tons), the inventory of downstream sectors was 58279 tons (+3072 tons), the inventory of other sectors was 44020 tons (-1390 tons), and the total inventory was 138512 tons (-1580 tons) [1]. 3.4 Company News - On September 16, Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792.SZ) stated on the investor interaction platform that the original annual production capacity of 30,000 tons of lithium carbonate in Lanke Lithium Industry was upgraded through technological innovation, and the current capacity has been increased to 40,000 tons per year. The company will continue to benchmark against the industry's advanced level to further improve resource extraction and utilization efficiency and promote high - quality industrial development [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that domestic lithium carbonate demand is projected to reach 102,000 tons by August 2025, marking a month-on-month increase of 7.49%, setting a new historical high [1] - Current lithium carbonate inventory remains above 140,000 tons, but the available days have been decreasing over the past six months, leading to increased price elasticity [1] - Specific demand drivers include a month-on-month increase of 8% in lithium carbonate demand from lithium iron phosphate, significant growth in energy storage demand estimated at 40%-50% for 2026, and a 12% increase in demand from ternary materials due to downstream replenishment [1] Group 2 - The market atmosphere indicates a rapid increase in warehouse receipts, with the virtual-to-real ratio returning to a low level, suggesting significant resistance to upward price breakthroughs unless explosive news arises [3] - Potential short-selling opportunities include the production ramp-up of major salt lake projects and the possibility that reductions in Jiangxi may not meet expectations, likely leading to an increase in domestic lithium carbonate production [3] - Overall, before the National Day holiday, the market is expected to continue a tug-of-war between strong realities and weak expectations, with lithium carbonate prices fluctuating around 70,000 yuan [5]

Core Viewpoint - The current lithium carbonate market lacks strong driving factors influencing price fluctuations, with both demand and supply dynamics playing critical roles [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Demand for lithium carbonate remains strong, with a greater inventory reduction this week compared to last week, providing price support [1] - Supply side uncertainties in Jiangxi have not been fully resolved, contributing to price stability [1] - The production of lithium from spodumene continues to increase, indicating a more sustained supply than previously expected [1] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - There are concerns that the current market demand may have peaked, leading to doubts about the sustainability of future demand, which could negatively impact prices [1] - The news regarding the potential resumption of production by Ningde has not yet been finalized but conveys a positive sentiment to the market, which could also act as a bearish influence on prices [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Price Trend**: This week, lithium carbonate futures prices first declined and then rebounded due to the expected resumption of production at Jianxiawo. The 2511 contract closed at 71,160 yuan/ton, down 3,100 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2601 contract closed at 71,260 yuan/ton, down 3,060 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price decreased by 2,300 yuan/ton to 72,450 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Production has exceeded the level before the shutdown at Jianxiawo. Raw material shipments decreased while arrivals increased. Weekly production reached 19,963 tons, up 544 tons week-on-week. In September, lithium battery production is expected to be 168.4 GWh, a 5% month-on-month increase. Weekly lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 139,000 tons, with upstream inventory at an absolute low and downstream inventory at an absolute high [2]. - **Market Outlook**: A weak outlook is expected. The 2511 - 2601 contract spread was -100 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week-on-week. The futures main contract price is expected to range between 61,000 - 73,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on inventory as the basis gradually recovers [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Price Tables**: The report presents data on the spot market prices of the lithium industry chain, including lithium ore, lithium salts, and battery products, showing price changes and percentages [7]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Upstream Supply - Lithium Ore - **Raw Material Situation**: Hedland Port started its annual maintenance and dredging on September 12, expected to last 3 - 4 weeks. Last week, Australian ore shipments reached a record high of 157,000 - 207,000 tons, but this week it was 0 tons. In September, the known arrival of Australian ore from all countries was 388,000 tons, with 364,000 tons arriving in China, a week - on - week increase of about 100,000 tons [2]. 3.3 Lithium Salt Mid - stream Consumption - Lithium Salt Products - **Price and Production Graphs**: Multiple graphs illustrate the price trends of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the production volume of lithium carbonate from different raw materials, and the monthly and weekly production and inventory of lithium carbonate [9][10][11][12][13]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Downstream Consumption - Lithium Batteries and Materials - **Production and Consumption Graphs**: Graphs show the apparent consumption of lithium carbonate in China, inventory available days, and the production and capacity utilization rates of lithium battery materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, as well as the production and installation volume of lithium batteries [14][15][16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - On September 10, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated at a low level. The spot market had active low - price point pricing, and the basis premium expanded. Considering factors such as cost, supply, demand, and inventory, with short - term supply and demand both strong and the weakening expectation of supply contraction due to the active resumption of lithium mines, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to decline with fluctuations. It is recommended to go short on rallies [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On September 10, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared to the previous day, with the near - month contract closing at 70,300 yuan/ton, down 2,520 yuan. The trading volume was 751,480 lots (+159,805), and the open interest was 340,814 lots (-10,526) [1]. Spot Market - The average prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and ternary precursors showed different degrees of change on September 10. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 73,450 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan [1]. Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 38,101 tons. The social inventory decreased, the smelter inventory decreased, while the downstream and other inventories increased. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 1,044 tons compared to the previous week [1]. Industry News - Australia's Galan Lithium company's Hombre Muerto West (HMW) project in Argentina made significant progress in the first - phase construction, with the design of the 4th pond completed. The project has a phased development plan, aiming for an annual production of 21,000 tons of LCE in 2026, 40,000 tons in 2028, and potentially 60,000 tons in 2030 [1]. - In August, Brazilian lithium spodumene exports decreased by more than one - third year - on - year and nearly 43% month - on - month. The suspension of shipments by the largest producer, Sigma Lithium, was a major factor [1].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in lithium carbonate futures indicates a potential market bottom, but long-term price support remains uncertain due to high inventory levels and supply chain dynamics [1][4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - As of August 28, lithium carbonate production capacity utilization was at 48.44%, with a weekly output of 15,200 tons, reflecting a 1.3% decrease from the previous period [2]. - The utilization rates for ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate were 56% and 63%, respectively, indicating stable production levels in the current demand environment [2][3]. Market Sentiment and Price Dynamics - The market is currently focused on the mining permit changes for the remaining seven mines in Jiangxi, with speculation about the resumption of operations at the Jiangxiawo mine by September 20 [4]. - Analysts suggest that the recent price decline is more influenced by market sentiment and futures trading rather than fundamental supply-demand factors, which remain strong [4].

Group 1 - The main contract for lithium carbonate in the domestic futures market has shown signs of recovery, closing up 1.05% at 73,420 yuan/ton after hitting a low of 71,120 yuan/ton, which is approximately a 20% drop from the high of 90,100 yuan/ton two weeks ago [1][2] - The current market prices for high-quality lithium carbonate range from 75,500 to 76,500 yuan/ton, while battery-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 74,000 and 76,500 yuan/ton, and industrial-grade lithium carbonate is between 73,500 and 75,000 yuan/ton, indicating stability compared to the previous working day [1] - Analysts suggest that the recent price movements are influenced by high inventory levels and the market's reassessment of supply disruptions, with a noted decrease in production capacity utilization among lithium carbonate producers [2][4] Group 2 - The demand for lithium carbonate is expected to improve as the traditional peak season approaches, although supply-side disruptions remain a concern [3] - Recent developments regarding mining permits in Jiangxi province are critical, with a deadline for submission of reports by September 30, which may impact future mining operations [3][4] - The overall supply of lithium carbonate has not yet reached a turning point, as production from spodumene sources is compensating for recent supply disruptions [4]