Core Insights - The U.S. private sector experienced its largest job loss in nearly two and a half years in November, primarily driven by small businesses, indicating a general slowdown in hiring activity [1][2] - This marks the third instance of job losses in the private sector within four months, raising concerns about a potential increase in the unemployment rate and adverse economic impacts [1][2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting may see the end of speculation regarding interest rate cuts due to the current employment trends [1] Employment Market Trends - According to ADP, U.S. businesses cut 32,000 jobs in November, the largest decline since March 2023, with small businesses losing 120,000 jobs [2] - Medium-sized businesses added 51,000 jobs, while large businesses increased their workforce by 39,000 [2] - The ADP report highlights ongoing recruitment freezes as employers navigate consumer caution and economic uncertainty [5][6] Economic Indicators - The ISM reported a continued decline in manufacturing sector activity, with employment indicators contracting for ten consecutive months [6] - Despite a rise in the services sector index to 52.6, hiring and investment remain cautious due to ongoing tariff uncertainties [6] - The overall labor market is perceived to be cooling, with expectations that significant improvements in hiring will not occur until trade tensions ease and economic growth accelerates [6] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is set to announce its final interest rate decision of the year, with labor market weakness being a primary concern [7] - Market expectations for a rate cut have risen significantly, with probabilities nearing 90% following the ADP report [7][9] - Some Federal Reserve officials express concerns about inflation, advocating for maintaining current interest rates, although this view is in the minority [7] Inflation and Cost Pressures - Inflation remains a focal point for future policy discussions, with import tariffs contributing to cost pressures that may keep inflation above the Fed's 2% target for some time [10] - Recent data indicates that while import prices remained stable, consumer goods prices have risen, suggesting that tariff costs are being passed on to consumers [10]

Core Insights - The U.S. labor market showed unexpected weakness in November, with ADP reporting a decrease of 32,000 jobs, marking the largest decline since March 2023 [1][5][6] - The decline in employment contrasts sharply with the upwardly revised addition of 47,000 jobs in October and falls significantly short of economists' expectations for a 40,000 increase [1][6] Employment Trends - Large enterprises (50 or more employees) added a net of 90,000 jobs, while small businesses (fewer than 50 employees) lost 120,000 jobs, with firms employing 20-49 employees losing 74,000 jobs [1][6] - The overall decline in employment is the largest single-month drop since March 2023 [1][6] Industry Performance - The education and healthcare sectors added 33,000 jobs, and the leisure and hospitality sector increased by 13,000 jobs [2] - The most significant job losses occurred in professional and business services, which saw a decrease of 26,000 jobs, followed by information services with a loss of 20,000 jobs, manufacturing with a loss of 18,000 jobs, and both financial activities and construction losing 9,000 jobs each [2] Wage Growth - Wage growth also slowed, with wages for employees remaining in their positions rising by 4.4% year-over-year in November, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from October [3][7] - ADP's Chief Economist noted that the hiring pace has been inconsistent due to cautious consumer behavior and an uncertain macroeconomic environment, with small businesses being the hardest hit [3][7] Federal Reserve Implications - The ADP report is critical as it is the last employment data available before the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 9-10, where there is a nearly 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, despite some officials expressing concerns about the necessity of further easing [3][7] - Recent trends indicate a divergence among policymakers regarding the need for rate cuts to prevent further labor market issues versus concerns about exacerbating inflation, which remains above the Fed's 2% target [3][7] Future Employment Data - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has postponed the release of the November non-farm payroll report, originally scheduled for December 5, to December 16 due to a government shutdown affecting data collection [3][7] - There are indications that the labor market, previously viewed as balanced with low hiring and low layoffs, may be shifting as several large companies, including Apple and Verizon, have begun announcing layoffs [3][7]

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payroll report, originally scheduled for release this Friday, has been postponed to December 16 due to the government shutdown, complicating predictions for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on December 11 [3] - The upcoming ADP data for November, set to be released on Wednesday, is seen as a critical indicator in the absence of the non-farm payroll data, with a previous value of 42,000 and a pessimistic forecast of 20,000 [4] - The Eurozone's harmonized CPI year-on-year for November is expected to rise slightly to 2.2%, while the core CPI is projected to increase to 2.5%, indicating a stable inflation outlook above 2% [6][8] Group 2 - The labor market in the U.S. faces significant challenges, including the impact of immigration policies and AI replacing basic jobs, which could hinder recovery in the short term [4] - The stability of Eurozone inflation data supports expectations that the European Central Bank will maintain interest rates, with the next decision on December 18 anticipated to be unchanged [8] - The potential for a higher likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve could lead to an appreciation of the Euro against the Dollar [8]

Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 99.466, while spot silver opened at $53.31/oz and is currently around $53.16/oz. Silver T+D is trading at approximately 12,396 CNY/kg, and the main Shanghai silver contract is around 12,430 CNY/kg [1] - On November 26, the US dollar index fell by 0.24% to close at 99.569. Spot silver rose by 3.60% to $53.31/oz, driven by increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in the upcoming meeting. Spot gold also reached a one-week high, rising by 0.79% to $4,162.35/oz, while platinum and palladium prices increased by 2.18% and 2.59%, respectively [1] Silver Market Data - The SLV silver ETF holdings remain unchanged at 15,582.33 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - On November 26, the direction of the deferred compensation payment for Ag (T+D) was from short to long [2] Economic Indicators - The US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 were recorded at 216,000, lower than the expected 225,000 and the revised previous value of 222,000, marking the lowest level since April 12, 2025 [3] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that US economic activity has remained stable in recent weeks, with overall consumer spending declining further, except for high-end consumers. The employment market has shown slight weakness, while price levels continue to rise moderately [3] Silver Price Analysis - The silver market opened at 51.422, experienced a pullback to 51.264, and then saw a strong upward trend, reaching a daily high of 53.385 before closing at 53.33. This bullish pattern suggests continued demand for upward movement, with support levels at 37.8 and 38.8, and targets set at 53.3, 53.7, and 54-54.2 [4]

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - The unemployment rate and layoff numbers in the U.S. have triggered early warning signals, indicating potential further pressure on the job market as the inventory cycle approaches its bottom [1][5][7] - The Federal Reserve is likely to continue its rate-cutting cycle, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in December, although the market has already priced in this expectation [2][28] - The 10-year Treasury yield is expected to experience low volatility, with support levels at 3.9% and 3.8%, and resistance levels at 4.1% and 4.2% [2][28] Group 2: Employment Market Analysis - The unemployment rate exhibits strong cyclical and nonlinear characteristics, with sharp increases during economic downturns and gradual decreases during recoveries [5][6] - The Challenger job-cut report shows a significant increase in layoffs, particularly in government sectors, which raises concerns about the employment market's deterioration [6][7] - The cumulative month-on-month change in the unemployment rate reached 0.4% in October, signaling a potential economic slowdown [6][7] Group 3: MBS Market Monitoring - In November, agency MBS yields declined alongside Treasury yields, with Fannie Mae MBS experiencing a slightly larger decrease than Freddie Mac MBS [1][38] - The credit spread of agency MBS relative to Treasuries remains stable near historical median levels, indicating a neutral valuation [38] - The duration of agency MBS is stable at around 5.5 to 6 years, with no significant overvaluation or undervaluation detected [38]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple Federal Reserve officials advocate for significant interest rate cuts to support the U.S. economy, arguing that current monetary policy is hindering economic growth and that there is no inflation issue to address [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - Federal Reserve Governor Milan links the deterioration of the U.S. job market to the current tight monetary policy, emphasizing the need for substantial rate cuts to prevent rising unemployment [2]. - Milan believes that the Federal Reserve should quickly lower rates to neutral levels, stating that recent economic data supports a dovish stance [2][3]. - San Francisco Fed President Daly also supports a rate cut in December, citing a greater risk of job market deterioration compared to inflation rising [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Data and Market Reactions - The U.S. September core PPI increased by 2.6% year-on-year, slightly below expectations, while retail sales rose by 0.2% month-on-month, also below forecasts [1]. - Market expectations for a December rate cut have increased, with an 84.7% probability of a 25 basis point cut according to CME FedWatch [1][5]. - Major U.S. stock indices experienced a V-shaped rebound, with the Dow Jones up 1.43% and the S&P 500 up 0.91% [1]. Group 3: Future Projections and Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement a rate cut in December and anticipates two additional cuts of 25 basis points each in 2026 [6]. - Analysts suggest that the potential for a "preventive rate cut" exists due to delayed economic data releases from the government shutdown, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy [6]. - Concerns about rising inflation in the coming year are noted, leading to a cautious stance on U.S. Treasury investments [6].

Core Insights - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September showed an unexpected increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 50,000 jobs, marking the best performance since June of this year [3] - Despite the positive job growth, the unemployment rate rose from 4.3% in August to 4.4%, the highest level since 2021 [3] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions may be influenced by this data, but the importance of the report could be overstated due to prior expectations set by Fed officials [4] Employment Data Summary - Non-farm employment increased by 119,000 in September, exceeding expectations [3] - The unemployment rate increased to 4.4%, up from 4.3% in August [3] - Revisions to previous months showed a decrease of 33,000 jobs combined for July and August [3] Wage Growth Summary - Average hourly wages increased by 3.8% year-over-year, slightly above the expected 3.7% [3] - Month-over-month wage growth was 0.2%, below expectations and a decrease from the previous month's 0.3% [3] Market Reaction Summary - Following the release of the employment data, U.S. stock index futures rose, and U.S. Treasury yields fell, indicating market optimism regarding the Fed's potential interest rate decisions [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is approximately 42% according to FedWatch [4] Future Implications Summary - The cancellation of the October employment report, which will be merged into the November report, means the September data will be the last complete employment report before the December Fed meeting [4] - The lack of new data before the meeting suggests that a rate cut in December is unlikely [4] Technical Analysis Summary - Technical indicators suggest a potential downward trend for gold prices, with a possibility of breaking below the $3,886 level [4]

Group 1 - The necessity for a rate cut in December is increasing due to signs of a slowing U.S. labor market, as stated by San Francisco Fed President Daly [1] - Daly expressed concerns that the labor market could deteriorate quickly, making it harder for the Fed to respond in a timely manner [1] - There is a division within the Fed regarding policy direction, with some officials focusing on inflation pressures while others support a rate cut [1] Group 2 - Market expectations for a December rate cut have surged to approximately 76%, up from 42% a week prior, influenced by dovish signals from multiple officials [2] - The U.S. Treasury yields have declined, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold, which saw a price increase of over 1.6% [2] - Key economic indicators are set to be released this week, which may influence market recalibration of rate cut expectations [2]

Employment Data Summary - In September 2025, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the expectation of 50,000[6] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, up from 4.3% in August 2025[6] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.25% month-on-month, down from 0.41% in the previous month[6] Sector Contributions - The service sector contributed the most to job growth, adding 87,000 jobs, with education and healthcare accounting for 59,000 jobs and leisure and hospitality for 47,000 jobs[8] - Professional and business services saw a decline of 20,000 jobs, marking a continuous decrease over five months[6][8] - Construction and retail sectors also contributed positively, with 19,000 and 14,000 jobs added respectively[8] Labor Market Trends - The three-month moving average for job additions is approximately 62,000, indicating a downward trend[6][9] - The labor force participation rate slightly increased to 62.4%[6] - The number of unemployed individuals rose to 7.6 million, reflecting a significant increase in discouraged workers[6][15] Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering interest rates if the job market weakens further, with a target endpoint rate of 3% under baseline conditions[6] - The upcoming December data release is critical for assessing the employment trend and potential policy adjustments[6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm employment data for September 2025 exceeded expectations, indicating a robust job market. The non-farm employment increased by 119,000, surpassing the forecast of 50,000. The service sector added 87,000 jobs, while the goods-producing sector rebounded with an increase of 10,000 jobs after a previous decline [5][6]. Employment Data Summary - The September non-farm employment figures showed a significant increase, with the service sector contributing 87,000 jobs and the goods-producing sector recovering to add 10,000 jobs. This is a notable improvement from previous figures [5][6]. - The construction industry saw an increase of 19,000 jobs, attributed to a decline in mortgage rates following the Federal Reserve's decision to restart rate cuts [6]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate rose to 62.4%, up from 62.3%, indicating a recovery in employment willingness among the youth. However, the unemployment rate increased to 4.4% due to a rise in the number of unemployed individuals by 219,000 [8]. - The data revealed a mixed picture of unemployment, with temporary unemployment decreasing by 53,000, while permanent unemployment increased by 98,000, suggesting ongoing layoffs in certain sectors [8]. Federal Reserve Implications - Given the stronger-than-expected non-farm data and the postponement of employment data for October and November, the Federal Reserve may adopt a cautious approach regarding interest rate cuts, potentially delaying any rate reductions until after the December meeting [5][8]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in December 2025 stand at 39.1%, with further cuts anticipated in January, April, and July 2026, with probabilities of 50.2%, 35.7%, and 31.9% respectively [8].