Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the U.S. job market is showing signs of slowing down, with November non-farm payrolls increasing by 64,000, which is above the market expectation of 50,000, but the previous month's figures were significantly revised down by 105,000 due to a one-time impact from the Trump administration's delayed resignation plan [1][2] - The unemployment rate in November rose by 0.2 percentage points to 4.6%, slightly above the market expectation of 4.5%. This increase is primarily attributed to a rise in labor force participation, while the proportion of permanent job losses has decreased, somewhat mitigating the severity of the unemployment rate increase [1][2] - The U6 unemployment rate saw a significant rise from 8.0% to 8.7%, indicating increased pressure on marginal labor and part-time workers, which is a point of concern [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate cuts is not expected to be significantly influenced by the November employment data, as the mixed signals from job growth and rising unemployment do not indicate a substantial increase in recession probabilities [2][3] - The market's reaction to the employment data has been muted, reflecting a mild "rate cut trade" characteristic, suggesting that the Fed has time to maintain its current stance on interest rates [2] - Expectations for future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may be catalyzed by two main factors: the continued unexpected rise in the unemployment rate and additional dovish signals from the new Fed chair [3]

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 谭诗吟 2025 年 12 月 17 日 宏观点评 证券分析师 程强 姓名 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 薛威 姓名 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 平庸的数据，微弱的影响 ——2025 年 11 月美国就业数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_Main] 资格编号：S11305XXXXXX 港股执业证号：非必填 邮箱：xxxxx＠tebon.com.cn 资格编号：S11305XXXXXX 事件：美国劳工统计局公布 10 月和 11 月就业数据。10 月就业人数下降 10.5 万 人，预期下降 2.5 万人；11 月新增非农 6.4 万人，预期 5 万人；11 月失业率 4.6%， 高于预期值 4.5%。8 月和 9 月新增非农均有下修，合计较修正前减少 3.3 万人。 港股执业证号：非必填 邮箱：xxxxx＠t ...

Employment Trends - In October, the U.S. added 105,000 non-farm jobs, a significant drop from September's 108,000, but rebounded to 64,000 in November, exceeding market expectations of 50,000[8] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6% in November, the highest in nearly four years, up from 4.44% in September[8] - Initial claims for unemployment benefits and continuing claims showed slight improvement, indicating resilience in the job market[2] Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to see growth and unemployment rates stabilize by 2026, with inflation initially declining before rising again[2] - The Federal Reserve may consider a rate cut in June as a political gesture, with inflation potentially rebounding in the second half of the year[2] - The labor participation rate increased from 62.3% to 62.5%, with the broader U6 unemployment rate rising to 8.7%[8] Sector Performance - Job growth was primarily concentrated in construction, healthcare, and education services, while manufacturing jobs continued to decline for the seventh consecutive month[8] - Retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, maintained rapid growth in October, indicating consumer resilience[2] - The service sector's PMI employment index and job postings on Indeed showed a slow recovery, suggesting ongoing demand for labor[2]

Core Insights - The U.S. job market presents a complex picture with November non-farm data exceeding expectations but revealing underlying concerns [2][3] - Wmax's analysis indicates a divergence in employment data, with a notable increase in non-farm employment but rising unemployment rates and stagnant wage growth [3][6] Employment Data Analysis - November saw an addition of 64,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing the expected 50,000, providing a temporary boost to the labor market [3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than the anticipated 4.4%, marking the highest level since September 2021 [3] - Average hourly wage growth was recorded at 3.5% year-over-year and 0.1% month-over-month, both below market expectations and indicating weak employment quality and income growth [3] Data Revision and Trends - October's non-farm employment figures were revised down to a decrease of 105,000, the largest drop since late 2020, significantly exceeding the expected decline of 25,000 [6] - The revisions were influenced by over 150,000 federal employees accepting buyouts, reflecting the impact of government downsizing [6] - Retail sales in October showed no growth, attributed to weak auto sales, further confirming the negative effects of employment fluctuations on consumer spending [6] Data Collection Adjustments - The release of employment data was affected by a government shutdown, leading to extended data collection periods which improved collection rates [7] - Collection rates reached 80.2% for September and over 73% for October and November, the highest in five years [7] - Wmax highlights the trade-off between data accuracy and timeliness, echoing concerns from former Labor Statistics officials regarding the implications of delayed data [7] Federal Reserve Policy Implications - Following the employment and retail sales data release, market expectations for interest rate cuts increased, with the probability of a January rate cut rising from 22% to 31% [10] - The market anticipates two rate cuts in 2026, with an expected total easing of 58 basis points for the year [10] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma between implementing easing measures to prevent economic slowdown and managing inflation risks [12] Future Economic Outlook - Wmax emphasizes the need for investors to consider multiple factors beyond single-month data to gauge economic trends accurately [13] - Key variables include the trend of data revisions, adjustments in statistical methods, and real demand changes at the industry level [13] - The upcoming months will clarify the U.S. economic landscape as annual data revisions and Federal Reserve meetings unfold, impacting global financial markets [13]

Group 1 - Domestic commodity futures closed mostly higher on December 17, 2025, with platinum and palladium futures hitting the limit up, lithium carbonate rising over 7%, and silver increasing by more than 5% [2][7] - Other notable increases included polysilicon up over 4%, asphalt up over 3%, and BR rubber up over 2%, while styrene and crude oil fell by more than 1% [2][7] Group 2 - According to Everbright Futures' report on December 17, overnight London spot gold experienced a rise and subsequent fall, while silver, platinum, and palladium maintained a strong trend [4] - The gold-silver ratio dropped to around 67.3, and the platinum-palladium price spread widened to approximately $240 per ounce [4] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added 64,000 jobs in November, exceeding market expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest level since 2021, indicating a cooling job market [4] - The preliminary Markit composite PMI for December in the U.S. was 53, below expectations of 53.9 and the previous value of 54.2, with both manufacturing and services sectors underperforming [4]

本文来自格隆汇专栏：梁中华宏观研究 作者：王宇晴、梁中华 投资要点 11月美国就业市场或仍处于逐步放缓的紧平衡状态。一方面，虽然11月新增就业人数略超预期，但新增就业人数或存在高估风险且三个月移动平均仍呈回 落态势；另一方面，失业率超预期回升，边缘就业人群压力加大。但失业率的上行并未恶化到衰退概率显著增加的程度，美联储或仍有时间与空间选择暂 停降息。 11月非农：新增就业小幅回升。美国11月非农就业人数增加6.4万人，高于市场预期的5万人。不过，10月就业人数大幅减少10.5万人，主要受特朗普延期 辞职计划中员工集中结束任职影响，为一次性冲击。相比之下，私人部门新增就业水平总体维持稳健，但可能存在一定高估，后续或有下修风险。总体来 看，虽然11月新增非农就业人数看似超预期，但新增就业人数或存在高估风险且三个月移动平均水平持续回落，美国就业市场或仍处于放缓趋势。 失业率上行：需要担心吗？11月美国失业率回升0.2个百分点至4.6%，略高于市场预期的4.5%。不过，失业率的上升或主要受劳动参与率回升的影响，永 久失业人数的占比反而有所下降，一定程度上稀释了失业率上升的严重性。但U6失业率的大幅上升仍值得关注（8. ...

专题：美国11月非农就业人数增长超出预期 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 美国就业：延续放缓——2025年11月美国非农数据点评（国泰海通宏观 王宇晴、梁中华） 来源：梁中华宏观研究 重要提示：《证券期货投资者适当性管理办法》于2017年7月1日起正式实施，通过本微信订阅号发布的 观点和信息仅供国泰海通证券的专业投资者参考，完整的投资观点应以国泰海通证券研究所发布的完整 报告为准。若您并非国泰海通证券客户中的专业投资者，为控制投资风险，请取消订阅、接收或使用本 订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。我司不会因为关注、 收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 王宇晴 S0880525040119 梁中华 S0880525040019 ·投资要点 · 11月美国就业市场或仍处于逐步放缓的紧平衡状态。一方面，虽然11月新增就业人数略超预期，但新增 就业人数或存在高估风险且三个月移动平均仍呈回落态势；另一方面，失业率超预期回升，边缘就业人 群压力加大。但失业率的上行并未恶化到衰退概率显著增加的程度，美联储或仍有 ...

Employment Data - In November, the U.S. non-farm employment increased by 64,000, exceeding market expectations of 50,000[9] - October's employment figures were revised down significantly, showing a decrease of 105,000, primarily due to a one-time impact from government layoffs related to Trump's resignation plan[9] - The three-month moving average of non-farm employment is now at 22,000, indicating a continued trend of slowing job growth[14] Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 4.6%, slightly above the expected 4.5%[17] - The increase in the unemployment rate is largely attributed to a rise in the labor force participation rate, which increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%[17] - The U6 unemployment rate rose significantly from 8.0% to 8.7%, indicating increased pressure on marginal labor and part-time workers[19] Federal Reserve Outlook - The recent employment data is not expected to significantly impact the Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate cuts, as both job growth and unemployment rates showed mixed signals[20] - The market's reaction to the employment data has been muted, with a slight weakening of the dollar and a drop in 10-year Treasury yields[20] - Future expectations for rate cuts may be influenced by continued rises in unemployment and dovish signals from the new Federal Reserve chair[24] Risks - Potential political pressure from Trump could threaten the independence of the Federal Reserve[25] - There is a risk of non-linear deterioration in the unemployment rate, which could complicate economic forecasts[25]

智通财经记者 | 刘婷 美国劳工统计局周二发布报告称，11月，新增非农就业人数6.4万人，超过市场预期的5万人，但失业率比9月上升0.2个 百分点至4.6%，创2021年11月以来新高。 受美国史上持续时间最长的政府停摆事件影响，11月非农就业报告较往常推迟了近两周发布。在10月1日至11月12日政 府停摆期间，联邦政府停止非必要服务，期间劳工统计局也没有开展家庭走访调查。随后，劳工统计局宣布无法发布10 月就业报告，取而代之的是，将通过电子渠道收集到的10月份数据并入11月就业报告中一同发布。 劳工统计局周二称，受此前政府裁员影响，10月，非农就业人数减少10.5万人。此外，该机构还下调了8、9月的新增就 业人数，累计下调3.3万人。 分析师表示，此次就业报告巩固了投资者对劳动力市场疲软但并未崩溃的看法，可能不足以推动美联储在1月会议上降 息。美联储下一次货币政策会议将于2026年1月27日-28日召开。 惠誉评级首席经济学家布莱恩·库尔顿对智通财经表示，11月就业人数稳健增长、但失业率进一步上升，结合其他指标 如初请失业金人数和职位空缺数来看，劳动力市场显然并未陷入困境。 凯投宏观北美地区副首席经济学家斯 ...

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2025 年 12 月 17 日 证券研究报告 如何理解一并公布的 10 月和 11 月非农数据 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 分析师： 陈嘉荔 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 SAC 执证号：S0260523120005 021-38003572 021-38003674 guolei@gf.com.cn gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 请注意，陈嘉荔并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 美国劳工部 12 月 16 日公布非农就业数据1。由于此前的政府停摆，本次非农数据属于 10 月和 11 月一并发布。 但住户调查（Household Survey）数据（包括失业率等）将缺失 10 月数据，且不会再补采。 美国劳工部在 12 月 16 日集中公布 10 月与 11 月的就业数据，其中包括 11 月的住户调查（Household Survey） 结果（如失业率、劳动参与率等），但由于此前政府停摆，10 ...