金十数据7月1日讯，美国制造业在6月份仍然低迷，新订单低迷，投入价格攀升，这表明特朗普政府对 进口商品征收的关税继续阻碍企业提前计划的能力。最新的数据显示，美国6月ISM制造业PMI从5月的 六个月低点48.5微升至49.0。这是PMI连续第四个月低于50，这表明占经济10.2%的制造业出现收缩。与 此同时，楼市、消费者支出和失业人数不断增加等疲弱数据显示，美国经济的潜在动能在第二季进一步 放缓，尽管GDP可能反弹，因创纪录的贸易逆差拖累因进口下降而消退。 受关税影响，美国制造业陷入疲软 ...

Core Viewpoint - The slowdown in U.S. labor force growth is expected to hinder economic growth, with immigration being a contributing factor [1] Group 1 - U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the economy is slowing down this year [1] - The deceleration in labor force growth is identified as a key factor affecting economic performance [1] - Immigration is highlighted as one of the reasons for the slowdown in labor force growth [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5% and will continue with the existing pace of balance sheet reduction, indicating a cautious approach due to high uncertainty [1][6] - The median target interest rate for 2025 is projected at 3.9%, with potential for two rate cuts within the year, although the number of members expecting no cuts has increased since March [1][6] - Employment trends show a cooling, with May's non-farm payrolls slightly declining and the unemployment rate remaining stable, suggesting a possible overestimation of current employment levels [2][5] Group 2 - Inflation expectations have been adjusted upwards, with the Fed raising the 2025 unemployment rate forecast from 4.4% to 4.5% and the PCE inflation forecast from 2.7% to 3% [4][6] - Powell noted that rising tariffs could increase prices and pressure economic activity, while the labor market remains solid but with fewer new job opportunities [4][6] - The economic growth forecast for 2025 has been downgraded from 1.7% to 1.4%, with 2026 also revised down to 1.6%, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainty [6][9] Group 3 - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have risen from 60% to 71%, driven by service-led inflation decline, although there are short-term risks from commodity inflation due to tariff policies [9] - The overall economic activity is reported to be slightly declining across most regions, with increased policy and economic uncertainty leading to more cautious decision-making by households and businesses [6][9] - The Fed's cautious stance is influenced by the high-interest rate environment and the ongoing development of Trump administration policies, which contribute to economic uncertainty [9]

Core Viewpoint - Recent signs indicate that American consumers are abandoning travel plans to save expenses, which may serve as an early warning signal of a broader economic slowdown in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Travel Consumption Trends - According to TS Lombard's analysis of TSA data, U.S. airport passenger throughput has declined year-on-year for the first time since the pandemic, indicating a negative growth in air traffic [1] - American Airlines and Delta Airlines have seen stock declines of 22.46% and 20.37% respectively, while American Airlines and JetBlue have dropped by 39% and over 40% [4] - In May, U.S. airline travel spending fell by 11% year-on-year, with accommodation spending down approximately 2.5% and air travel spending down 6% [3] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Economic Indicators - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has sharply declined since the beginning of the year, with spending on travel accommodations and air travel lower across all income groups compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The low-income group has shown a significant reduction in travel spending, particularly after the announcement of large tariffs by President Trump [3] - High-income groups are also tightening their wallets, with a 7 percentage point drop in air travel spending growth for those earning over $150,000 [3] Group 3: Impact on Airlines and Hotels - Major airlines have withdrawn their full-year earnings forecasts for 2025 due to economic uncertainty affecting demand [4] - Hotel groups like Marriott and Hyatt have revised their 2025 profit expectations downward, with Wyndham reducing its RevPAR growth forecast from 2%-3% to -2%-1% [4] - The current environment is expected to test key metrics in the hotel industry, such as occupancy rates and average daily rates [4] Group 4: International Travel and Perception - A report from Oxford Economics predicts a 9% decline in international visitors to the U.S. this year, resulting in an estimated $8.5 billion reduction in spending [7] - Negative perceptions of U.S. trade and immigration policies are contributing to a decrease in international tourist arrivals, particularly from France and Germany [7] - American tourists are also planning fewer long-haul trips abroad, with a 7% decrease in those planning to travel to Europe this summer [7] Group 5: Economic Outlook and Consumer Spending - The increase in tariffs is expected to significantly lower U.S. economic growth rates in 2025, impacting consumer purchasing power and stock markets [8] - Rising inflation and slowing job growth may lead to a decline in real wage growth below 1% by the end of the year, making it difficult for consumers to maintain current spending levels [8] - The depletion of excess savings accumulated during the pandemic has returned bank deposits to 2019 levels, indicating a potential strain on consumer spending [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for lower-than-expected CPI inflation data in the context of a slowing U.S. economy and manageable inflation pressures [1] Economic Indicators - Signs of economic slowdown in the U.S. are becoming more apparent, raising questions about the overall inflation outlook [1] - The impact of tariffs on inflation may be reflected in the upcoming CPI data, suggesting that external factors could influence domestic price levels [1]

【黄金期货最新行情】 | 6月6日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 783.24 | -0.15% | 272195 | 178314 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【机构观点】 国投期货：隔夜金价震荡，白银伴随铜价破位上行。中美两国元首通话同意继续落实好日内瓦共识，尽 快举行新一轮会谈。美国公布周度初请失业金人数超预期升至24.7万创八个月新高，本周美国经济数据 普遍偏弱后聚焦今晚非农指引。金价背靠3000美元强支撑维持回调买入思路，白银破位后打开上方空 间。 【基本面消息】 数据显示，6月6日上海黄金现货价格报价779.4元/克，相较于期货主力价格（783.24元/克）贴水3.84元/ 克。 在企业已经面临进口商品关税成本上升之际，美国一季度工人生产率下降速度快于最初预期，推动劳动 力成本大幅上升。美国第一季度非农生产力终值下降了1.5%。 美国上周首次申请失业救济的人数意外增加，达到自去年10月以来的最高水平，这进一步表明就业市场 正在降温。美国至5月31日当周初请失业 ...

Group 1 - The China Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1345.85 points, down 1.37 points or 0.1% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Commodity Futures Index closed at 1863.53 points, down 1.9 points or 0.1% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - Coking coal experienced a rebound due to supply-side news but retreated as the news was not confirmed, closing up 1.68% [2] - The market sentiment for coking coal has cooled, with no significant price increases in the spot market, and some steel mills have initiated price reductions for coking coal [2] - The outlook for coking coal remains weak due to oversupply, with expectations of continued market fluctuations in the short term [2] Group 3 - Tin prices are consolidating after a significant rise, closing up 1.47% [3] - Concerns about slow recovery in supply from Myanmar's Wa State tin mines are affecting market sentiment, while overall consumption remains limited [3] - Economic data from the U.S. indicates a slowdown, with ADP employment numbers and ISM services PMI both falling below expectations, leading to increased speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Group 4 - Aluminum futures saw a sharp decline, dropping nearly 3% amid concerns over supply disruptions from Guinea's Axis mine [4] - The market is shifting focus to the potential for oversupply as production resumes, despite current tightness in the spot market [4] Group 5 - Urea futures fell nearly 3%, reaching the lowest level since January, with significant fluctuations in inventory levels reported [6] - The domestic supply of urea remains high, and while demand is stable, the market sentiment is cautious due to the potential for further inventory accumulation [6] - The nitrogen fertilizer association has set a maximum ex-factory price for urea, indicating a controlled pricing environment amid low production costs [6]

新华社伦敦5月21日电（记者赵小娜）路透社21日发布一项对经济学家的调查显示，围绕美国关税 战的贸易紧张局面近期出现短暂缓和，但美国经济前景仍不容乐观。受财政赤字扩大、通胀居高不下和 政策不确定性影响，美国经济正面临"低增长、高通胀"的风险。报道摘要如下： 高额进口关税暂停实施在一定程度上降低了美国短期内陷入衰退的可能性，但并未实质性改变其经 济下行趋势。最新调查显示，美国经济今年第二季度预计增长1.5%，全年增速仅为1.4%，显著低于去 年的2.8%，2026年增速预期同样为1.5%。未来一年，美国出现经济衰退的概率中位数从4月的45%降至 35%。 美联储官员认为，关税政策导致通胀形势再度恶化的风险在加剧，因此不急于降息。今年以来，联 邦基金利率一直维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变。在103位受访的经济学家中，52人预计美联储将在第三 季度开始降息，最可能在9月；25人认为将在第四季度降息；18人预计今年不会降息；8人预测6月将降 息。 FHN金融公司首席经济学家克里斯·洛指出，联邦公开市场委员会坚持要在关税对通胀的直接影响 明朗之后再降息。因此，相关决策可能到第四季度才会做出，甚至明年年初。 摩根士 ...

Core Viewpoint - The founder of the hedge fund company Point72, Steven Cohen, believes that the U.S. economy is likely to slow down due to tariff threats [1] Economic Outlook - Cohen stated that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to take immediate action as it remains concerned about inflation issues stemming from tariffs [1] - He projected that the U.S. GDP is expected to grow by 1.5% next year [1]

Group 1 - Jeff Gundlach, known as the "Bond King," predicts that gold prices could rise to $4,000 per ounce, a 20% increase from last week's price of approximately $3,345 [1] - Gold has increased by 25% this year, reflecting a shift in traders' perceptions due to market volatility related to tariffs and geopolitical concerns [1] - The World Gold Council reports that the global market size for physically-backed gold ETFs increased by $11 billion in April, reaching $397 billion [1] Group 2 - Gundlach expresses a challenging outlook for other risk assets, predicting a potential 20% decline in the S&P 500 index, which could drop to 4,500 points [2] - The market is currently in a risk-off state, with other analysts also optimistic about gold due to uncertainties stemming from trade policies [3] - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price target to $3,700 per ounce, citing high policy uncertainty and a potential slowdown in the U.S. economy [3]