Core Insights - The article discusses the interpretation of the U.S. July non-farm employment data and the current employment situation, highlighting a slowdown in the job market and adjustments in previous employment figures [1][2][3]. Group 1: Employment Data Overview - In July, the U.S. added 73,000 non-farm jobs, with the unemployment rate slightly increasing from 4.12% to 4.25%. Additionally, the June non-farm employment figure was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, and May's from 144,000 to 19,000, resulting in a total downward revision of 258,000 jobs, the largest since May 2020 [1][2]. - The three-month moving average for new non-farm jobs is only 35,000, with the private sector averaging 52,000 jobs, indicating a decline from earlier in the year. The education and healthcare sectors remain stable, contributing 50,000 to 100,000 jobs per month, while other sectors show weak growth [2]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The manufacturing sector saw an average job loss of 123,000, while construction added 23,000 jobs, indicating significant declines in cyclical industries. Government employment also recorded negative growth, with an average downward revision of 60,000 jobs from May to June [2]. - The labor market's supply-demand gap was revised from 698,000 to 201,000, suggesting a relatively balanced state despite the decline in non-farm employment numbers. The initial claims for unemployment benefits have been consistently declining since early June, indicating better-than-expected market conditions [3]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Despite the acceleration in job losses, the unemployment rate has not risen significantly, potentially due to immigration policies affecting labor participation rates. The labor participation rate for Black or African American individuals dropped from around 63% to 61% this year [3]. - The stability in wage growth and total income for U.S. residents suggests that a recession is not imminent, as the labor market remains relatively stable despite the challenges [3].

Market Overview - On August 4, US and European stock markets collectively rose, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 both increasing by over 1%, and the Nasdaq 100 rising by 1.87% [1] - On August 5, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (159660) opened with a gap up, rising by 1.56%, attracting over 160 million yuan in two consecutive days [1][3] Performance of Major Tech Stocks - Major tech stocks within the Nasdaq 100 ETF saw significant gains, with Nvidia, Facebook, Google, and Broadcom all rising over 3%, while Microsoft and Tesla increased over 2% [3][4] - The top ten components of the Nasdaq 100 ETF include Nvidia (3.62% increase), Microsoft (2.20% increase), and Apple (0.48% increase), with Nvidia holding a weight of 9.99% in the index [4] Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The market's optimistic sentiment is largely driven by rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, despite recent economic data indicating a slowdown in manufacturing and the job market [4][5] - The US added 73,000 non-farm jobs in July, significantly below the expected 104,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.248%, the highest since November 2021 [5][6] Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has surged to nearly 90% following the employment data release, although inflation remains a concern [7][8] - The upcoming employment report and inflation data will be critical in determining the Fed's decision on whether to adopt a cautious approach or implement a more aggressive rate cut [8] Long-term Market Outlook - The long-term outlook for the US stock market remains positive, driven by earnings growth and macroeconomic stability, with a recommendation for investors to buy on dips [8][9] - The Nasdaq 100 ETF is expected to benefit from the strong performance of tech giants and their anticipated capital expenditures, with a management fee of 0.5% per year, which is lower than the market average [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The latest U.S. non-farm employment data for July significantly underperformed expectations and was subject to substantial revisions, raising concerns about the economy's resilience against tariff impacts [1][2] Economic Indicators - July's non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, falling short of the expected 104,000, with prior months' data revised down by 258,000, marking the largest adjustment since June 2020 [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.248%, above the expected 4.2% and the previous value of 4.117%, the highest since November 2021 [1] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for July recorded at 48, down from 49.5, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [3] - The GDP growth for Q2 2025 is projected at an annualized rate of 3.0%, but the Private Domestic Final Purchases (PDFP) only grew by 1.2%, reflecting a decline in internal growth momentum [3] Market Reactions - Following the disappointing employment data, U.S. stock markets declined, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices falling by 2.36% and 2.17%, respectively [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 17.2 basis points to 4.216%, while the 2-year yield fell by 24.2 basis points to 3.682% [1] Monetary Policy Insights - The July FOMC meeting resulted in a 9-2 vote to maintain the policy rate at 4.25-4.5%, with dissenting votes advocating for a rate cut [4] - Fed Chair Powell indicated that while the labor market is balanced, inflation remains a concern, necessitating a restrictive policy stance [4] - The resignation of Fed Governor Kugler may provide an opportunity for President Trump to appoint a new member, potentially influencing future monetary policy [4]

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic data and events this week were dense, culminating in the non-farm payroll data released on Friday, which dominated market trading. The disappointing and significantly revised non-farm employment data reignited recession concerns, leading to a sharp decline in U.S. stocks and a drop in U.S. Treasury yields. Under the baseline expectation, the U.S. economy is still in a soft landing phase, with short-term asset price volatility reflecting market concerns about the "slope" of the U.S. economic downturn [1]. Major Asset Classes - The non-farm payroll data dominated market trading, with recession concerns leading to renewed expectations for interest rate cuts, resulting in declines in U.S. stocks and Treasury yields. The disappointing new non-farm jobs and significant downward revisions to previous data reignited recession fears, causing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices to drop by 2.36% and 2.17%, respectively. Over the week, the 10-year Treasury yield fell by 17.2 basis points to 4.216%, while the 2-year yield dropped by 24.2 basis points to 3.682%. The dollar index rose by 1.53% to 99.14, and spot gold prices increased by 0.78% to $3363 per ounce [2]. Overseas Economy - Short-term data amplified recession concerns, but the U.S. economy remains in a soft landing phase. Key U.S. economic data this week, including GDP (core GDP excluding net exports and inventory changes), non-farm payrolls, and manufacturing PMI, were weak. The ISM manufacturing PMI for July recorded 48, significantly below the expected 49.5. The U.S. GDP for Q2 2025 grew at an annualized rate of 3.0%, better than the consensus forecast of 2.6%. However, the private domestic final purchases (PDFP) grew only by 1.2%, indicating that the GDP growth was more due to a rebound from Q1 imports rather than strong internal economic growth. The July non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 104,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.248% [3][4]. Monetary Policy - The July FOMC meeting was hawkish, but there were internal divisions within the Federal Reserve. The decision to maintain the policy rate at 4.25-4.5% was passed with a 9-2 vote, with two members voting against it, advocating for a rate cut. Fed Chair Powell noted that while the labor market is balanced, inflation remains high, necessitating a restrictive policy rate. The resignation of Fed Governor Kugler may provide President Trump an opportunity to appoint a new member, potentially influencing monetary policy direction [4]. Overseas Politics - President Trump officially signed an executive order announcing the "Reciprocal Tariff 2.0" rates for 69 trade partners, with significant reductions compared to the previous version. The new tariffs will take effect on August 7. The announcement reflects the negotiation dynamics between the U.S. and its trade partners. The legal challenges surrounding Trump's authority to impose these tariffs may accelerate negotiations, but uncertainty remains regarding potential adjustments to tariffs in response to legal risks [5].

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is currently in a soft landing phase despite short-term recession concerns, as indicated by recent economic data[1] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 is reported at +3.0%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of +2.6%[1] - The core GDP, which excludes net exports and inventory changes, shows a growth of only +1.2%, indicating reliance on external factors rather than domestic growth[1] Labor Market Insights - In July 2025, the U.S. added 73,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the expected 104,000, with prior months' data revised down by 258,000, marking the largest downward revision since June 2020[1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.248%, higher than the expected 4.2% and the previous 4.117%, the highest level since November 2021[1] Market Reactions - The disappointing non-farm payroll data has reignited recession fears, leading to declines in U.S. stock markets and a drop in bond yields[1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 17.2 basis points to 4.216%, while the 2-year yield decreased by 24.2 basis points to 3.682%[1] Monetary Policy Outlook - The July FOMC meeting resulted in a 9-2 vote to maintain the policy rate at 4.25-4.5%, with some members advocating for a rate cut[1] - The Federal Reserve's stance indicates a balancing act between managing inflation and supporting the labor market amid rising unemployment[1] Trade and Tariff Developments - The U.S. has introduced "Tariff 2.0," which lowers tariffs compared to the previous version, but uncertainty remains regarding potential increases in tariffs to expedite trade agreements[1] - The new tariff rates will take effect on August 7, 2025, impacting 69 trade partners, with significant rates set for the EU (15%) and Japan (15%)[1]

Core Viewpoint - The macro data and events this week were dense, culminating in the non-farm payroll data released on Friday, which dominated market trading. The disappointing and significantly revised non-farm employment data reignited recession concerns, leading to a sharp decline in U.S. stocks and a drop in U.S. Treasury yields. Under baseline expectations, the U.S. economy is still in a soft landing phase, with short-term asset price volatility reflecting market concerns about the "slope" of the U.S. economic downturn [1]. Major Asset Classes - The non-farm payroll data dominated market trading, with recession concerns leading to renewed expectations for interest rate cuts, resulting in declines in both U.S. stocks and Treasury yields. The disappointing new non-farm jobs and significant downward revisions to previous data caused a drop in U.S. stocks, while expectations for rate cuts increased, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields. For the week (July 28 to August 1), the 10-year Treasury yield fell by 17.2 basis points to 4.216%, and the 2-year yield dropped by 24.2 basis points to 3.682%. The U.S. dollar index rose by 1.53% to 99.14, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices fell by 2.36% and 2.17%, respectively [2]. Overseas Economy - Short-term data amplified recession concerns, but the U.S. economy remains in a soft landing phase. Key U.S. economic data this week, excluding ADP private employment, showed weakness in GDP (core GDP excluding net exports and inventory changes), non-farm payrolls, and manufacturing PMI, raising recession fears. The ISM manufacturing PMI for July recorded 48, significantly below the consensus expectation of 49.5. Notably, the decline in PMI was primarily due to a substantial shortening of supplier delivery times, indicating improvements in the supply chain amid declining demand. The U.S. GDP for Q2 2025 grew at an annualized rate of +3.0%, better than the consensus expectation of +2.6% [3]. Monetary Policy - The July FOMC meeting was hawkish, but there are internal divisions within the Federal Reserve. The FOMC decided to maintain the policy rate at 4.25-4.5% with a 9-2 vote. Fed Chair Powell indicated that while the labor market is balanced, inflation remains high, necessitating a restrictive policy rate. Two dissenting votes were cast by Waller and Bowman, who argued for a rate cut in July, citing the one-time impact of tariffs on inflation and the downward risks in the labor market [4]. Overseas Politics - Trump officially signed an executive order announcing the "Reciprocal Tariff 2.0" rates for various trade partners, which may accelerate negotiations. The new tariff rates, effective August 7, show a significant reduction compared to the previous version. The announcement includes a 15% tariff for the EU and Japan, and a 10% tariff for other partners. The legal challenges surrounding Trump's authority to impose these tariffs may lead to further adjustments in tariff rates to expedite trade agreements, indicating ongoing uncertainty in trade relations [5].

Economic Overview - Investors are closely monitoring employment data as a key economic indicator and a potential signal for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [2] - The U.S. economy added 147,000 jobs in June, exceeding economists' expectations, while the unemployment rate remained stable [4] - The average hourly wage growth was 3.7% over the past 12 months, slightly lower than previous levels [4] Employment Market Dynamics - Nearly 90% of new jobs in the past two and a half years have been concentrated in three sectors: government, leisure and hospitality, and private education and healthcare [7] - Job openings in June decreased to 7.437 million, below the expected 7.5 million, indicating a slowdown in labor demand [7] - The ratio of job openings to unemployed individuals remains at 1.1, consistent with pre-pandemic levels [7] Consumer Confidence and Labor Market Sentiment - Consumer confidence rose in July due to easing concerns about the overall economy and labor market [9] - The percentage of respondents perceiving job scarcity reached a four-year high of 18.9%, while the perception of abundant job opportunities increased slightly [9] - The labor participation rate continues to decline, and temporary job positions are decreasing, signaling caution in the labor market [9] Future Projections - If non-farm payrolls increase between 120,000 and 180,000 with a rising unemployment rate, it may slightly increase the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September [11] - A significant drop in non-farm payrolls below 100,000, coupled with rising unemployment and stagnant wage growth, could confirm signals for a rate cut [11] - Gold may benefit from these conditions as a traditional safe-haven asset, potentially recovering above $3,300 [11]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy showed slight deceleration in Q2, but remains resilient, with GDP growth at an annualized rate of 3.0%, exceeding expectations. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, but internal divisions are growing, with a less than 50% probability of a rate cut in September [1][2][25]. Economic Performance - The U.S. Q2 actual GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.0%, surpassing the expected 2.4% and previous -0.5%. The year-on-year GDP growth was 2.0%, consistent with prior values. PCE inflation for Q2 was 2.1%, below the expected 2.9% and previous 3.7% [1][17]. - Private consumption contributed positively to GDP, increasing from 0.3% to 1.0%, while private investment saw a decline from 3.9% to -3.1%. Net exports shifted from a negative contribution of -4.6% to a positive 5.0% [7][17]. Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.5%, aligning with market expectations. Notably, two Fed governors voted against the decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut, marking a rare occurrence of dissent [1][17]. - Fed Chair Powell indicated that current monetary policy is moderately restrictive, with inflation remaining a concern. He noted that tariffs are beginning to affect prices and that future inflation impacts are expected [17][19]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's decision, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar rose, while stock markets and gold prices fell. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices decreased by 0.1% and 0.4%, respectively, while the 10-year Treasury yield increased by 4.6 basis points to 4.37% [19][25]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in September dropped significantly, with implied probabilities falling from 70% to 44%, and the anticipated number of cuts for the year reduced from 1.8 to 1.4 [2][25]. Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to experience a soft landing, supported by factors such as balance sheet repair, loose monetary policy, and favorable fiscal conditions. However, inflation risks remain, and the Fed is likely to prioritize inflation control over rate cuts [2][27].

Economic Performance - The US Q2 GDP growth rate was 3.0%, exceeding expectations of 2.4% and rebounding from a previous value of -0.5%[1] - Year-on-year GDP growth remained stable at 2.0%, consistent with the previous value[1] - PCE inflation for Q2 was 2.1%, lower than the expected 2.9% and previous 3.7%[1] Consumption and Investment - Private consumption contributed a 1.0% increase to the GDP, up from 0.3%, with durable goods and services consumption rising, while non-durable goods saw a slight decline[2] - Private investment's contribution dropped from 3.9% to -3.1%, with inventory changes negatively impacting the GDP by -3.2%[2] - Government spending's contribution improved from -0.1% to 0.1%, while net exports shifted from -4.6% to 5.0%[2] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25-4.5%, aligning with market expectations, but two board members voted against this decision advocating for a 25 basis point cut[3] - This marked the first instance in over 30 years where two board members opposed a decision, indicating potential future leadership changes within the Fed[3] Market Reactions - Following the Fed's meeting, US Treasury yields and the dollar rose, while stock markets and gold prices fell[4] - The implied probability of a rate cut in September dropped from 70% to 44%, with expectations for only one rate cut remaining in 2025[4] Economic Outlook - The US economy is likely to experience a soft landing, with inflation risks still present, suggesting caution regarding expectations for rate cuts[5] - The current economic conditions, supported by various fiscal measures, indicate that the Fed will prioritize inflation control over aggressive rate cuts in the near term[5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Bank of America indicates a cautious investment stance towards the historically high valuations of the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants, suggesting a structural opportunity in small-cap stocks, particularly micro-cap stocks, as the market anticipates a shift towards quality and low-risk factors to hedge against economic downturns [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "Magnificent Seven" tech giants, including Apple, Microsoft, Google, Tesla, Nvidia, Amazon, and Meta Platforms, have been the primary drivers of the S&P 500 index, but their high valuations are causing concern among investors [1][2]. - The S&P 500 index is currently near historical highs, with expectations that it may face a significant pullback, as indicated by analysts predicting a potential drop of about 15% by the end of the year [2][3]. - Small-cap stocks, particularly micro-cap stocks, have shown strong performance, with the Russell Microcap Index rising approximately 22% since the beginning of the second quarter, outperforming larger stock indices [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Bank of America emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-quality small-cap stocks while avoiding high-leverage consumer stocks and unprofitable tech stocks [1][4]. - The report suggests that the recent rebound in riskier small-cap stocks is driven by a "low-quality stock rebound" and short-covering, but this trend may not be sustainable as the market shifts back to fundamentals [4][18]. - Analysts predict that the market will transition from a "low-quality leadership" phase to a "high-quality steady growth" phase, where financially healthy small-cap stocks will become the new momentum leaders [19][20]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, with potential rate cuts starting in September, is expected to benefit small-cap stocks significantly, as they are more sensitive to interest rate changes [23]. - The current market environment, characterized by a "one versus many" dynamic, where a few tech giants dominate, is seen as unsustainable, leading to a potential breadth improvement as investors seek value in overlooked small-cap stocks [22][23]. - Bank of America forecasts that if the U.S. economy avoids recession and enters a rate-cutting cycle, small-cap stocks could experience a "Davis double play" scenario, leading to significant excess returns compared to large-cap stocks [5][20].