Group 1 - President Trump unexpectedly withdrew his previous threats to impose tariffs on Greenland during the Davos Forum, stating that he would not use military force to resolve the issue [1] - The announcement of a framework agreement with NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg regarding Greenland has positively impacted the US stock market, leading to a rise in stock prices [1] Group 2 - US-UK trade negotiations remain stalled, with US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicating that the relationship has deteriorated to a low point, preventing new trade talks [5] - The US-UK trade agreement has significant gaps, and the UK is still facing a 10% tariff on goods, which, while lower than the EU's 15%, remains a burden [5] - The UK steel industry is seeking to lower the 25% tariff by promising supply chain security, but negotiations are progressing slowly [7] Group 3 - The UK government reported a significant decrease in the budget deficit for December, down 38% to £11.6 billion, exceeding economists' expectations [8] - Tax revenue increased by 8.9%, particularly from income tax, corporate tax, VAT, and national insurance contributions, contributing to the improved fiscal situation [8] Group 4 - The UK housing market shows a complex performance, with an average house price increase of £2,300 across 30 million homes, but only half of the homes saw a value increase of over 1% [10] - There is a notable regional disparity in the housing market, with Northern England, Scotland, and Northern Ireland experiencing significant price increases, while London has a lower increase rate [12]

1月23日，随着日本最新通胀数据的披露及货币政策靴子落地，全球投资者正密切关注亚太核心市场的 连锁反应。NCE平台表示，虽然日本 12月头条 CPI 大幅降至 2.1%，且核心 CPI 从 11月的 3% 放缓至 2.4%，但这并未能完全缓解市场的疑虑。 尽管通胀增速有所放慢，但由于潜在的价格压力依然具有粘性，日本央行在此次议案中选择维持 0.75% 的利率不变，试图在刺激增长与抑制物价之间寻求精细的平衡。NCE平台认为，日本央行上调了 2025 与 2026 财年的经济增长及通胀预期，这一举动释放了未来政策可能进一步正常化的信号。 目前，10年期日本国债收益率已攀升至 1.12% 水平，这不仅反映了市场对财政赤字的担忧，也推升了 全球范围内的借贷成本。NCE平台表示，这种融资成本的抬升直接对比特币等高流动性风险资产构成了 压力。 受此影响，比特币近期在 90000 美元关口附近表现乏力，难以形成有效的上攻动能。资产间的联动性在 这一周期内表现得尤为显著。NCE平台表示，近期比特币与日元的相关系数高达 0.84，这种强正相关的 特征意味着日元的持续疲软可能对比特币价格产生负面拖累。 目前日元兑美元汇率已触及 ...

英国政府12月的借款降幅超出市场预期，强劲的税收表现为财政大臣瑞秋.里夫斯控制公共财政的努力 提供了有力支撑。英国国家统计局周四公布的数据显示，当月政府支出超出税收收入116亿英镑(约合 156亿美元)。与上年同期相比，赤字减少了71亿英镑，这一降幅低于一项对经济学家调查得出的中位数 预期值130亿英镑。值得一提的是，这是自2003年以来，英国政府12月的借款水平首次降至如此低位。 英国国家统计局高级统计师汤姆.戴维斯表示："2025年12月的借款额相较于2024年同期显著降低，这主 要是因为今年的收入较去年大幅上扬，而支出仅出现了小幅增长。" 前几个月的税收收入表现优于此前预期，这一积极态势主要得益于公司税实现了19亿英镑的增长。 在去年12月，税收收入相较于上年同期增长了77亿英镑。这一显著增长主要得益于国民保险缴款额额外 增加了30亿英镑，同时所得税收入也增加了25亿英镑。此外，在2025-2026年度的前九个月里，国民保 险缴款收入也同比增长了近19%。 上个月，中央政府的日常开支相较于上年同期增长了32亿英镑，与此同时，资本项目的净投资规模却呈 现出下降态势。 里夫斯所领导的财政监督机构——预算责任 ...

曾经，日本国债收益率长期处于低位，堪称全球债市的"压舱石"，对全球各国政府的融资成本起到了压 制作用。但如今，这一局面已然逆转。 今年1月中旬，日本40年期国债收益率飙升至4%以上，创下该国各类期限主权债券三十余年来的新高。 背后原因有二：其一，持有日本过半主权债券的日本央行，已开始缩减购债规模;其二，日本首相高市 早苗提出减税计划，政府或需增发国债以筹措资金。 受此影响，日本债市接连数月出现罕见波动，国债拍卖多次遇冷。投资者正警惕日本债市的波动蔓延至 全球市场——目前，全球各国政府能否有效遏制持续的财政赤字，已引发市场普遍担忧，全球债市收益 率已节节攀升。 国债的传统吸引力何在? 国债向来被视为最安全的投资资产之一，因为发行主体——政府——破产的概率相对较低。政府可自主 制定政策，且通常能通过多种渠道筹集所需资金。对于长期国债而言，投资者需要锁定利率长达二三十 年甚至四十年之久，因此这类债券往往能以较低风险，为投资者提供相对可观的收益率。 特别是日本规模达7.5万亿美元的国债市场，数十年来一直被视作全球最稳定的债市之一。然而近期， 多重因素导致国债需求疲软，进而引发债价下跌，而收益率则随之反向走高。 需求缘 ...

1月15日的全球金融市场上，发生了一件震动四方的事件：中国持有的美国国债规模降至6826亿美元，创下自2008年以来的新低。这一切似乎只是一个巧 合，却无声地揭示了中美之间那场不为人知的金融暗战。而更为戏剧性的是，曾扬言要整顿美联储的特朗普，此时却突然改变口风，暗示暂时不会采取任何 行动。面对中国的大手笔抛售，美方的应对却显得如此反常。这背后，究竟隐藏着怎样的深层次博弈？ 当中国再度抛售61亿美元美债，将其持仓降至6826亿美元时，全球资本市场的风声瞬间紧绷。这一举动显然不止是一次普通的买卖，背后蕴含的是深刻的战 略考虑。十七年来的最低点，仿佛是一颗冰冷的石头，狠狠砸在了水面上，激起一圈又一圈的涟漪。值得注意的是，正当中国选择撤退之时，全球其他国家 却在冲锋——日本购买了26亿美元，英国更是增加了106亿美元，美债的全球外资持仓总量冲到了9.36万亿的历史新高。这一进一出，表面看似只是资本流 动，却暗藏着深刻的分歧和冲突。中国的举动，不是被动的避险，而是主动的拆雷。她手握对方的欠条，风险暴露无遗。与其被动等待，倒不如提前采取行 动，化纸币为金。 此时再看中国的黄金储备，情况却完全不同。连续14个月增持黄金，7 ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.444 | 102.470 | 105.875 | 105.880 | 108.180 | 108.105 | 111.49 | 111.6 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.400 | 102.428 | 105.785 | 105.815 | 108.040 | 107.980 | 110.92 | 111.03 | | | 涨跌 | 0.044 | 0.042 | 0.090 | 0.065 | 0.140 | 0.125 | 0.570 | 0.570 | ...

Group 1 - The gold and silver markets have reached historical highs, with spot gold surpassing $4800 per ounce for the first time, reflecting a monthly increase of over 10% and a rise of more than $480 [1] - The precious metals sector in the Hong Kong stock market opened high, with notable gains from companies such as Zhaojin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zijin Mining, all experiencing increases of over 3% [3] Group 2 - Concerns over global trade and geopolitical outlook have intensified due to Trump's threats of new tariffs on European allies, leading investors to turn to hard assets like gold [2] - Ray Dalio suggests that the escalating trade tensions and increasing fiscal deficits may undermine confidence in U.S. debt, recommending investors allocate 5% to 15% of their portfolios to gold as a key hedge [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 20, all four major stock index futures contracts for the current month declined, with IF down 0.44%, IH down 0.1%, IC down 0.49%, and IM down 0.98% [1] - The total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded on the trading day, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 9467 lots, 2195 lots, 47043 lots, and 39473 lots respectively. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 2594 lots, 135 lots, 18737 lots, and 8203 lots respectively [1][2] - A - share market was in shock adjustment, with the market style switching from high - valuation growth sectors to value sectors. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.01% at 4113.65 points, and other major indices also showed declines [7] - The Hong Kong stock market continued to adjust, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.29% at 26487.51 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.16% [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of different IF contracts (IF2602 - IF2609) all declined, with the decline ranging from 0.25% to 0.44%. The trading volume and positions of most contracts increased, and the net increase in long positions of some contracts was significant [1][5] - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of different IH contracts (IH2602 - IH2609) also declined, with the decline ranging from 0.10% to 0.17%. The trading volume and positions of some contracts changed, and the net increase in long and short positions of some contracts was notable [1][5] - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of different IC contracts (IC2602 - IC2609) decreased, with the decline ranging from 0.15% to 0.49%. The trading volume and positions of most contracts increased, and the net increase in long positions of some contracts was large [1][5] - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of different IM contracts (IM2602 - IM2609) dropped, with the decline ranging from 0.91% to 1.03%. The trading volume and positions of most contracts increased, and the net increase in long positions of some contracts was significant [1][5] 3.2 Market Environment and Policy - The Ministry of Finance and other departments announced a package of five fiscal - financial policies to promote domestic demand, including policies to boost consumption and support private investment. The small and medium - sized enterprise loan discount policy focuses on 14 key industrial chains [6][7] - In 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at necessary levels. Special ultra - long - term treasury bonds will continue to be issued, and the management of the negative list of special bond projects will be improved [7]

Core Viewpoint - Ghana's economy continues to show strong growth momentum, with a projected year-on-year growth of 3.8% in October 2025, primarily driven by the services sector [1] Economic Growth Indicators - The monthly economic growth indicators reveal that agriculture grew by 0.9%, industry by 3%, and services by 5.5% [1] - The composite economic activity growth index for the three sectors stands at 112.7, up from 108.6 in the same period last year [1] Sector Contributions - The growth in the services sector is mainly driven by telecommunications, wholesale, and retail trade [1] - Industrial growth is primarily supported by the manufacturing sector [1] - Agricultural growth is largely attributed to the fisheries sector [1] Future Outlook and Recommendations - The sustained upward trend indicates that Ghana's economy is likely to maintain positive growth, especially in the services and industrial sectors [1] - The statistical office encourages the government to continue enhancing industrial productivity and value addition while addressing structural challenges in the agricultural sector to improve its resilience [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a series of proactive fiscal policies aimed at promoting high-quality economic and social development, with a focus on increasing overall fiscal expenditure and optimizing its structure for better efficiency and stronger economic momentum [2][14]. Fiscal Policy and Expenditure - In 2026, the overall fiscal expenditure will continue to increase, ensuring that the fiscal deficit, total debt scale, and expenditure remain at necessary levels, with a commitment to "only increase, not decrease" [2][14]. - The fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is set at around 4%, an increase of one percentage point from the previous year, with new government debt reaching 11.86 trillion yuan, up by 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year [3][4]. Debt Management - The government maintains a relatively low debt-to-GDP ratio compared to the average of G20 countries, despite increasing deficits and debt issuance [4]. - In 2025, measures will be taken to replace 2 trillion yuan of hidden debt and allocate 800 billion yuan in new special bonds to support local government finances, thereby reducing the average interest cost of local debts by over 2.5 percentage points [6][7]. Support for Consumption and Investment - A special long-term government bond issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in 2025 will support consumption and promote the sale of green, low-carbon, and intelligent products, with an expected sales boost of approximately 2.6 trillion yuan [5]. - Policies will be introduced to stimulate consumption through personal consumption loans and support for new consumption models, as well as adjustments to tax refund policies for duty-free shops [5]. Support for SMEs and Innovation - A new loan interest subsidy policy for small and micro enterprises will focus on 14 key industrial chains, including new energy, automotive, and medical equipment [8][9]. - The government will provide risk-sharing funds to support bond issuance for private enterprises and private equity investment institutions, mitigating investor losses [10]. Pension and Social Security - In 2025, the central government will allocate approximately 1.2 trillion yuan for basic pension insurance subsidies, with a 2% increase in pension levels for retirees [11]. Tax System and Market Development - The government aims to improve the local tax system to support the construction of a unified national market, including clarifying fiscal responsibilities and enhancing tax regulations [12]. Technological Innovation and Investment - The government will support the National Venture Capital Guidance Fund to invest in early-stage, small, long-term, and hard technology projects, promoting innovation in key industries [19]. - Financial support will be provided for technology innovation loans, with the central bank offering re-loan support to facilitate the transformation of manufacturing and digitalization of SMEs [20][21]. Export Tax Policy Changes - The cancellation of export tax rebates for solar and electronic products starting April 1, 2026, is expected to promote efficient resource utilization and address "involution" in competition [17].