Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Wednesday saw most prices of the container shipping index (European line) futures rise, with the main contract EC2510 up 0.64% and far - month contracts up 1 - 4%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index dropped 18.7 points from last week, down 0.8% month - on - month, and the spot index continued to fall. A series of tariff measures have increased global trade uncertainty and the expectation of trade conflict escalation. Despite the resilience of the US consumer end, there is an upward risk of inflation and potential impact on future retail data. China's counter - measures have intensified Sino - European trade tensions. Against this backdrop, the demand expectation for the container shipping index (European line) is weak, and the futures price fluctuates greatly, but the rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators may drive the futures price up in the short term. Investors are advised to be cautious and control risks [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1420.100, up 9.0; EC second - main contract closing price: 1751.4, up 69.3. EC2510 - EC2512 spread: - 53.80 (down); EC2510 - EC2602 spread: - 331.30; EC2510 - EC2602 spread (another value): - 89.20, down 9.80. EC contract basis: 877.76, down 7.10. EC main contract open interest: 54361, up 2253 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 2297.86, down 18.7; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 1130.42, down 153.39. SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1550.74, down 41.85; container ship capacity (in 10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, unchanged. CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1232.29, down 29.06; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1789.50, up 2.26. Baltic Dry Index (daily): up 49.00; Panama Freight Index (daily): 1921.00; Panama Freight Index (daily, another value): 1625.00, up 8.00. Average charter price (Panamax): 12308.00, up 123.00; average charter price (Capesize): 23286.00, down 1309.00 [1]. 3.3 Industry News - Seven Chinese departments jointly issued guidelines on financial support for new industrialization, aiming to build a mature financial system by 2027. US President Trump criticized Powell for late interest - rate cuts, may announce a new Fed chair soon, will "significantly" raise tariffs on India in 24 hours and announce drug and chip tariffs within a week, with drug tariffs potentially up to 250%. The Bank of Japan may further raise interest rates if economic growth and inflation develop as expected [1]. 3.4 Key Data to Watch - August 7, 00:00: China's July export year - on - year rate in US dollars; China's July import year - on - year rate in US dollars. August 7, 14:00: Germany's June seasonally - adjusted industrial output monthly rate. August 7, 14:45: France's June trade balance (in billion euros). August 7, 19:00: UK's central bank interest - rate decision as of August 7. August 7, 20:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 2 (in 10,000 people). August 7, 22:00: US June wholesale sales monthly rate [1].

中国人民银行数据表明，央行二季度净购金6吨，上半年累计增储19吨，截至6月，连续8个月增持黄金。 不过，世界黄金协会发布最新的二季度全球黄金需求报告却显示，市场购金主力军的全球央行的购买量有所放 缓，全球央行在二季度净购金166吨，增储量同比减少了21%。 全球央行购金速度放缓除了当前金价处于较高位置之外，对于金价上涨的前景表明了并不统一的立场。 日内收盘，沪金上涨0.26%，报收782.5元/克。 图片来源：曲合APP 前期出于对贸易冲突的担忧部分资金选择押注黄金多头，随着 8 月 1 日到来前或有更多国家和美国达成贸易协 议对市场情绪影响减弱对美元资产形成支撑使价格承压，但 7 月美国经济数据呈现恶化再次提振9 月美联储降 息可能性，政治局势也使避险需求再次升温，未来美国通胀等相关数据对市场的影响将不断增加带来单反波 动。技术面上国际金价持续盘中形成三角形态在 3450 美元的前高存在阻力缺乏较强突破的驱动，金价连跌后快 速修复整体仍维持偏强震荡，多单在 3300 美元（770 元）上方继续持有。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - On Tuesday, most prices of the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) futures rose, with the main contract EC2510 up 0.63% and the far - month contracts up about 1%. The latest SCFIS Europe Line settlement freight rate index dropped 18.7 points from last week, down 0.8% month - on - month, and the spot indicators continued to decline. A series of tariff measures have increased the uncertainty of the global trade situation and raised the market's expectation of a new round of trade conflicts. Although the US consumer side shows resilience, inflation still has an upward risk, and China's counter - measures have further intensified the Sino - EU trade tension. Against this background, the demand expectation of the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) is weak, the futures price fluctuates greatly, but the rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators may drive the futures price to rise in the short term. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - EC main contract closing price: 1413.000, up 8.8; EC second - main contract closing price: 1690.5, up 20.20 - EC2510 - EC2512 spread: - 255.40, unchanged; EC2510 - EC2602 spread: - 48.40, unchanged - EC contract basis: 876.06, unchanged - EC main contract open interest: 52108, up 1055 [1] 3.2 Spot Data - SCFIS (Europe Line) (weekly): 2297.86, down 18.70; SCFIS (US West Line) (weekly): 1130.42, down 153.39 - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1550.74, down 41.85; Container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, unchanged - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1232.29, down 29.06; CCFI (Europe Line) (weekly): 1789.50, up 2.26 - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 2018.00, down 48.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1644.00, down 11.00 - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 12235.00, up 50.00; Average charter price (Cape - size ship): 27300.00, up 2705.00 [1] 3.3 Industry News - The central bank, the financial regulatory administration and the CSRC plan to further clarify the specific requirements for risk - based customer due diligence of financial institutions. For financial institutions and exchange - business institutions, when the amount of funds remitted abroad by customers is more than RMB 5000 or the foreign - currency equivalent of $1000 in a single transaction, they should verify the remitter's identity. - US President Trump said that India is not only buying a large amount of Russian oil but also reselling a large part of it on the open market for huge profits, and will significantly increase the tariffs paid by India to the US. - The EU Commission spokesman said that the EU will suspend the implementation of the tariff counter - measures originally scheduled to take effect against the US on August 7 within six months and continue to cooperate with the US to finalize a joint statement on trade [1] 3.4 Key Data to Focus On - Eurozone June retail sales month - on - month rate at 17:00 on August 6 - US July global supply chain pressure index at 22:00 on August 6 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - On Monday, most futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined. The main contract EC2510 fell 0.72%, and the far - month contracts fell about 1%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index dropped 18.7 points from last week, a 0.8% decline. Trump's "reciprocal tariff" measures and China's counter - measures have intensified trade uncertainties. Although the US consumer end shows resilience, inflation has an upward risk. The demand expectation for the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is weak, and the futures price fluctuates greatly. However, the rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators may drive the futures price to rise in the short term. Investors are advised to be cautious and track relevant data [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price is 1421.800, down 10.3; EC second - main contract closing price is 1677.2, down 10.7. The EC2510 - EC2512 spread is - 255.40, up 13.00; the EC2510 - EC2602 spread is - 48.40, up 17.60. The EC contract basis is - 16.50, down. The futures holding position is 51053 hands, down 1323 [1] Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly) is 2297.86, down 18.70; SCFIS (US West Line) (weekly) is 1130.42, down 153.39. SCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly) is 1550.74, down 41.85. Container ship capacity is 1227.97 (ten thousand TEUs), up 0.04. CCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly) is 1232.29, down 29.06; CCFI (European Line) (weekly) is 1789.50, up 2.26. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) is 2018.00, down 15.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) is 1644.00, up 15.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships is 12235.00, down 128.00; the average charter price of Capesize ships is 27300.00, up 1386.00 [1] Industry News - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, support key areas, and promote the use of RMB in trade. Trump signed an executive order to impose 10% - 41% reciprocal tariffs on some countries, with the tariffs taking effect on August 7, 2025. Fed理事库格勒 will leave office on August 8, creating uncertainty about the Fed chair appointment [1] Key Data to Follow - August 5, 14:45: France's June industrial output monthly rate; August 5, 17:00: Eurozone's June PPI monthly rate; August 5, 20:30: US June trade balance (in billions of dollars) [1]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.8.1」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号： Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 业务咨询 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 本周集运指数（欧线）期货价格小幅下行，主力合约EC2510收跌6.98%，其余合约收跌2-4%不等。最新SCFIS欧线 结算运价指数为2400.50，较上周回落21.40点，环比下行0.9%，现货指标回落。最新SCFIS欧线结算运价指数为 2316.56，较上周回落83.94点，环比下行3.5%，现货指标持续回落。美国总统特朗普宣布8月1日起对进口半成品铜等 产品征收50%关税。此外，特朗普还签署了行政命令，对巴西加征40%关税，使总关税额达到50%；对来自印度的商品 征收25%的关税。一系列关税措施进一步加剧全球贸易局势不确定性，推高市场对贸易冲突再度升级的预期。7月标普 全球美国PMI录得年内最快增速，Q2 GDP年化增速大幅超出市场预期，加之美联储FOMC会议释放边际转鹰信号，强调 未来关税对于通胀走势的不 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Suspended [6] - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [7] Core Viewpoints - The current 50% tariff does not cover refined copper, causing the Comex premium to drop significantly. If the inventory of over 250,000 tons in Comex flows back to the market, it may impact copper prices again. Therefore, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended. However, due to the price - holding sentiment of domestic holders, the possibility of a continuous and significant decline in copper prices is relatively small [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On July 31, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 78,640 yuan/ton and closed at 78,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.13% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 78,180 yuan/ton and closed at 78,010 yuan/ton, a 0.55% decrease from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - The domestic electrolytic copper spot market showed a tightening trend at the end of the month. The premium of 1 electrolytic copper to the 2508 contract was 140 - 220 yuan/ton, with an average of 180 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price range was 78,460 - 78,670 yuan/ton. It is expected that holders will maintain a price - holding strategy on August 1, and the actual trading activity is expected to improve [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: Trump signed an executive order to modify the reciprocal tariff rates for certain countries. The tariff on Canada will be increased from 25% to 35% starting August 1, 2025. Goods transshipped to avoid the 35% tariff will be subject to a 40% transshipment tariff. The US Treasury Secretary expects to announce Fed nominations by the end of the year, and there will be two vacancies on the Fed Board. China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [3] - **Mine End**: The copper production of Anglo American's Quellaveco copper mine in Peru increased slightly in the first half of the year, but the company's total copper production decreased by 13% due to the decline in Chilean production [3] - **Smelting and Import**: Southern Copper's CFO believes that trade conflicts will impact the global economy and the copper industry, but is optimistic about the long - term prospects of copper. Glencore's copper production decreased by 26% in the first half of the year, and it raised its full - year production forecast [4] - **Consumption**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Near the end of the month, downstream consumption had limited room for improvement. Due to some processing enterprises' export - rushing actions, market demand was relatively stable, and downstream enterprises mainly made just - in - time purchases [4] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 1,350 tons to 138,200 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 351 tons to 19,622 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on July 28 was 119,300 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous week [4]

Core Viewpoint - The CFO of Southern Copper Corporation, Raul Jacob, expressed concerns about the impact of trade conflicts on the global economy and the copper industry, but remains optimistic about the long-term prospects for copper [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The mining sector anticipates that trade conflicts will negatively affect the global economy and the copper industry [1] - Despite current challenges, the industry is expected to maintain resilience in the long term [1] Group 2: Tariff Implications - Jacob highlighted a significant price gap between the COMEX and LME, indicating a high likelihood of the U.S. imposing tariffs on copper imports [1] - The Trump administration plans to implement a 50% tariff starting Friday, with Peru being a major supplier of refined copper to the U.S. [1] - There is uncertainty regarding the details of the tariffs and their potential impact on the company, as tariff levels on other goods and countries have been fluctuating [1] Group 3: Company Position - Grupo Mexico's chairman, German Larrea, stated that the company is monitoring the potential effects of tariffs on its business [1] - Southern Copper is in a solid position to handle uncertainties related to the trade environment [1]

Core Insights - The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) indicates that both global and local economies have shown resilience thus far [1] - However, the potential resurgence of trade conflicts, financial crises, or geopolitical shocks could exacerbate the slowdown caused by global economic deceleration [1] Economic Performance - The MAS highlights the current robust performance of the global economy, suggesting stability in economic indicators [1] - Local economic conditions are also reported to be steady, reflecting a positive outlook in Singapore's economic landscape [1] Risks and Challenges - The MAS warns that renewed trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties pose significant risks to the ongoing economic stability [1] - The potential for these factors to contribute to a more pronounced global economic slowdown is emphasized [1]

Group 1 - The current gold market resembles that of ten years ago, characterized by low volatility and minimal trading activity, with traders feeling increasingly apathetic [1] - Geopolitical risks, trade conflicts, and monetary policy have all been put on hold, leading to a stagnant market environment [1] - Attention is focused on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data and potential retaliatory tariffs from the Trump administration, which could significantly impact market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The market remains unclear, with the key support level at $3,300 acting as a pivot point for potential price movements, indicating ongoing bullish and bearish battles [2] - Current trading activity shows limited fluctuations, with a critical focus on the $3,305 level as a dividing line for long and short positions [4] - The strategy suggests observing the market without taking significant risks until a clear breakout occurs, particularly below $3,305 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreement between the US and the EU involves a 15% tariff on most EU exports to the US, which has sparked mixed reactions among European governments, particularly concerning the competitiveness of the automotive industry in Germany [1][4]. Group 1: Agreement Details - The agreement was announced by US President Trump, who stated that the EU would face a 15% tariff on goods exported to the US, which is seen as a compromise to avoid higher tariffs previously threatened by Trump [1][5]. - The EU has committed to purchasing $750 billion worth of US energy products and increasing investments by $60 billion, which are key components of the agreement [1][10]. - The average effective tariff rate for the US is expected to rise from 13.5% to 16% as a result of this agreement, which is lower than the previously anticipated 18% [5]. Group 2: Reactions from European Leaders - German Chancellor Merz expressed that the agreement successfully avoided a trade conflict that could have severely impacted Germany's export-driven economy, although he hopes for further relaxation of transatlantic trade [5][6]. - The Slovak Prime Minister acknowledged the 15% tariff as a reasonable outcome, highlighting the importance of the automotive industry to Slovakia's GDP [6]. - However, there is significant criticism from the German industrial sector, with leaders arguing that the agreement sends a disastrous signal and could have severe negative impacts on Germany's export-oriented industries [8]. Group 3: Concerns and Future Implications - The lack of detailed written agreements raises concerns about the execution and interpretation of the deal, leading to uncertainties for investors and markets [10][11]. - The agreement is viewed as a pragmatic compromise aimed at maintaining economic stability in Europe, but it has also been criticized for potentially undermining European competitiveness [4][7]. - French officials have expressed dissatisfaction with the agreement, suggesting that it reflects a power imbalance between the EU and the US, and have called for measures to counteract perceived US dominance [8].