Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests that Zhengzhou sugar (Zheng sugar) will maintain a weak and volatile trend [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The global sugar supply is in a strong and loose pattern, with the expected sugar production in the 25/26 season in Brazil's central - southern region reaching 42 million tons due to increased cane crushing and high sugar - making ratios [4] - Pre - imported sugar will arrive at ports from mid - to late June, increasing supply pressure in the third quarter as ICE raw sugar prices triggered domestic purchases earlier [4] - The import cost of Brazilian sugar after out - of - quota has dropped, narrowing the price difference with domestic spot prices, and the import profit has recovered, stimulating subsequent purchases [4] - Low - cost substitutes such as syrups and premixed powders are continuously squeezing the consumption space of domestic - produced sugar [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Sugar Price and Futures Data - Domestic spot sugar prices vary by region: in Nanning, Guangxi it's 6200 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it's 5945 yuan/ton; in Dali, Yunnan it's 5870 yuan/ton; in Rizhao, Shandong it's 6270 yuan/ton [4] - Futures prices: SR09 is 5763 yuan/ton, down 20; SR01 is 5638 yuan/ton, down 22 [4] - The price difference between SR09 and SR01 is 125, up 2 [4] Exchange Rate and International Commodity Price Data - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is 7.2035, down 0.0211; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB is 0.084, down 0.0004 [4] - International sugar prices: the ICE raw sugar main contract is 17.1, up 0.06; the London white sugar main contract is 573, up 3 [4] - The price of Brent crude oil main contract is 62.61, down 0.75 [4] Supply - related Information - The expected sugar production in the 25/26 season in Brazil's central - southern region may reach 42 million tons, strengthening the global supply - loose pattern [4] - Pre - imported sugar will arrive at ports from mid - to late June, increasing supply pressure in the third quarter [4] - The import cost of Brazilian sugar after out - of - quota has dropped to 5980 yuan/ton, narrowing the price difference with domestic spot prices to 150 yuan/ton [4] - From January to March, the import of syrups and premixed powders was 242,000 tons (equivalent to about 156,000 tons of sugar), squeezing the consumption space of domestic - produced sugar [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, high imports are materializing, inventory accumulation has begun, and the market is undervalued. It's in a period of bearish factor realization. With macro - instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine, but due to low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [3]. - For polyethylene, overall inventory is neutral. The 05 basis is +300 in North and East China. Import profit is around -400 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and LD is weakening. In 2025, new devices pose significant pressure, and attention should be paid to their commissioning [8]. - For polypropylene, upstream and mid - stream inventories are accumulating. The basis is +10, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profit is around -500. With few known future maintenance plans, supply is expected to increase slightly. In the context of over - capacity, the 05 contract faces pressure, which can be relieved by export growth or monthly maintenance of 2 million - ton PDH devices [8]. - For PVC, the basis is strengthening. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in June. The current static inventory is decreasing from a high level, and factors like exports, coal prices, and terminal orders should be monitored [12]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From May 26 - 30, 2025,动力煤期货 remained at 801. The daily changes in江苏现货,华南现货,鲁南折盘面,西南折盘面,河北折盘面,西北折盘面, CFR中国, CFR东南亚,进口利润,主力基差, and盘面MTO利润 were 0, 20, 5, - 3, 0, 0, 0, 0, 9, 20, - 13 respectively [2]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From May 26 - 30, 2025,东北亚乙烯 remained at 780. The daily changes in华北LL,华东LL,华东LD,华东HD, LL美金, LL美湾,进口利润,主力期货,基差,两油库存, and仓单 were - 10, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, - 65, 30, - 2, 0 respectively [8]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From May 26 - 30, 2025,山东丙烯 and东北亚丙烯 remained stable in some cases. The daily changes in华东PP,华北PP,山东粉料,华东共聚, PP美金, PP美湾,出口利润,主力期货,基差,两油库存, and仓单 were - 30, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, - 43, 20, - 2, - 133 respectively [8]. PVC - **Price Data**: From May 26 - 30, 2025,西北电石 decreased from 2450 to 2350,山东烧碱 increased from 867 to 885. The daily change in基差(高端交割品) was 10 [11][12].

甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/05/2 3 801 2302 2303 2460 2600 2460 2630 256 327 70 50 -818 2025/05/2 6 801 2285 2300 2410 2565 2460 2525 256 327 58 40 -843 2025/05/2 7 801 2250 2275 2390 2520 2325 2505 254 327 39 40 -828 2025/05/2 8 801 2255 2275 2355 2520 2300 2500 255 327 29 25 -825 2025/05/2 9 801 2245 2278 2353 2510 2300 2495 255 327 32 15 -836 日度变化 0 -10 3 -2 -10 0 -5 0 0 3 -10 -11 观点 高进口开始兑现，累库开始发生，盘面低估值，等待淡季预期交易到位；伊朗降开工，非伊增量，国内供应增 加，总体来说处于利 空兑 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. It is in a period of bearish factor realization. With unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Given the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [1]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. There is inventory accumulation during holidays in the upstream and coal - chemical sector. The overall inventory is neutral. The 05 basis is +300 in North and East China. Import profit is around - 400 with no further increase. The domestic linear production is increasing month - on - month. New device pressure is high in 2025, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [6]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: There is inventory accumulation in the upstream and mid - stream. The basis is +10, and the non - standard price spread is neutral. Import profit is around - 500. With few known future maintenance plans, supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average, and the finished - product inventory is moderately high. Under the background of over - capacity, the 05 contract is under pressure. Pressure relief requires an increase in exports or monthly maintenance of 2 million - ton PDH devices [6]. - **PVC**: The basis has strengthened. The mid - and upstream inventory is continuously decreasing. Summer seasonal maintenance of Northwest devices is ongoing. Attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in June. The current static inventory is decreasing from a high level, and downstream performance is mediocre. Key factors to watch include exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工 [10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From May 22 to May 28, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2315 to 2255, and the daily change on May 28 was 5. The import profit remained stable, and the daily change of the main - contract basis was - 15 [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From May 22 to May 28, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 780. The North China LL price decreased from 7260 to 6980, with a daily change of - 45 on May 28. The import profit remained at - 224, and the main - contract futures price decreased to 6972, with a daily change of - 35 [6]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From May 22 to May 28, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6530 to 6380, with a daily change of - 60 on May 28. The main - contract futures price decreased to 6893, with a daily change of - 3 [6]. PVC - **Price Data**: From May 22 to May 28, the Northwest calcium carbide price decreased from 2500 to 2400. The ethylene - based PVC price in East China remained at 5500, and the daily change of the calcium - carbide - based PVC price in East China was - 30 on May 28 [10].

塑 料 日期 东北亚乙 烯 华北LL 华东LL 华东LD 华东HD LL美金 LL美湾 进口利润 主力期货 基差 两油库存 仓单 2025/05/2 0 780 7300 7515 9250 7780 855 917 -31 7222 40 82 5312 2025/05/2 1 780 7260 7525 9200 7780 855 917 -5 7221 30 81 5312 2025/05/2 2 780 7260 7450 9075 7800 855 917 -84 7159 40 80 5312 2025/05/2 3 780 7150 7400 9000 7780 855 917 -84 7085 40 80 5312 2025/05/2 6 780 7100 7375 9000 7780 855 917 -84 7080 60 80 5312 日度变化 0 -50 -25 0 0 0 0 0 -5 20 0 0 观点 聚乙烯，两油库存同比中性，上游过节累库，煤化工累库，下游库存原料中性，成品库存中性。整体库存中性，05基差华北+300， 华东+300，外盘欧美稳，东南亚维稳。进口利润-400附近 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the import profit and internal - external price differences of various commodities on May 23, 2025, and analyzes the market trends and trading strategies of different industries [1]. - It emphasizes the importance of considering factors such as logistics margins, major importers, and resource dependence in the internal - external arbitrage of non - ferrous metals [1]. - It also points out that different industries are affected by various factors, including trade policies, seasonal patterns, and exchange rate fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products - Cotton: Due to trade wars, sanctions, and tariff policies, the internal and external cotton markets are decoupling. Previously, US cotton was stronger than Zhengzhou cotton, but now the situation has reversed. Continuous attention to subsequent tariff policy changes is needed [1]. - Oilseeds and Oils: These commodities have a high import dependence, with smooth trade and logistics. The risks of the international industrial chain are transmitted to domestic terminals through basis contracts, and the focus is on the difference in internal and external supply - demand rhythms [1]. 3.2 Iron Ore - In the short - term, the shipping and arrival of iron ore have increased, iron - water production is oscillating at a high level. Overseas macro factors cause strong short - term disturbances, while the domestic macro situation is relatively stable. The ore price center has declined, and there are few short - term internal - external price difference opportunities. In the long - term, the global balance sheet shows a slight surplus compared to China's [1]. 3.3 Energy - SC: The on - shore spot discount has weakened, and the internal - external price difference has also weakened. - FU: In summer, the internal - external price difference maintains a weak pattern, and the internal - external spread of FU09 is compressing. - LU: The previous valuation has been realized, and the internal - external price difference is starting to decline. - PG: The external market shows that FEI and MB have declined, CP has increased, and the oil - gas ratio is oscillating. The internal - external price difference has significantly decreased, and FEI - MOPJ has slightly declined. Freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East have decreased [1]. 3.4 PX - Domestic PX production has declined, and there are still some overseas maintenance. As TA restarts, the PX de - stocking rate is expected to increase. The current internal - external price difference has significantly converged, and the valuation is becoming neutral. It is advisable to wait and see [1]. 3.5 Precious Metals - For precious metals, the abnormal movement of the RMB exchange rate has supported the domestic price, causing the internal - external price ratio to quickly decline. The end of the domestic consumption peak season and the Diwali festival in India, which supports gold consumption, also contribute to the decline of the internal - external price ratio. - The spot discount of silver has widened, and the import window has closed [1]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metals - Aluminum: Close the internal - external reverse arbitrage position to take profit. - Tin: As overseas mines and Burmese mines resume production smoothly, pay attention to internal - external positive arbitrage. The LME inventory has been continuously low recently. - Zinc: Close the internal - external reverse arbitrage position [1]. 3.7 Exchange Rates - On May 23, 2025, the US dollar index, the Australian dollar against the US dollar, and the US dollar against the Brazilian real showed different changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and annual periods [1].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report analyzes import profits, internal - external price differences, and trading strategies across multiple industries including agriculture, energy, metals, and precious metals. It also considers the impacts of tariffs, supply - demand, and exchange rates on these factors [1][3]. Group 3: Industry - Specific Summaries Agriculture - **Cotton**: Due to trade wars, sanctions, and tariff policies, the relationship between domestic and foreign cotton markets has changed. After tariff cuts, the strength of Zhengzhou cotton and US cotton has reversed. Continued attention to tariff policy changes is recommended [1]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: These commodities have a high import dependency. Their international supply - demand balance is transmitted to the domestic market through imports, and the focus should be on the difference in domestic and foreign supply - demand rhythms [1]. Iron Ore - In the short - term, the shipping and arrival of iron ore are increasing, iron - water production is oscillating at a high level. With strong overseas macro - disturbances and relatively stable domestic macro - conditions, the ore price center has declined, and there are fewer short - term internal - external price difference opportunities. In the long - run, the global supply - demand balance is more surplus compared to the Chinese market [1]. Energy - **SC**: The internal - external price relationship is weakening. - **FU**: In summer, the internal - external relationship remains weak, and the internal - external price difference of FU09 is compressing. - **LU**: The external crack spread basis has rebounded, and with the cancellation of warehouse receipts, the internal - external relationship is strengthening. - **PG**: After tariff relaxation, the external price has risen. The internal - external price difference has decreased significantly [1]. - **PX**: Domestic PX operating rates have declined, and there are still some overseas maintenance. As TA restarts, the PX de - stocking rate is expected to increase. The current internal - external price difference has converged significantly, and the valuation is becoming neutral, so it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Metals - **Aluminum**: Close the internal - external reverse arbitrage position to take profit. - **Tin**: As overseas and Myanmar mines resume production smoothly, pay attention to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities. The LME inventory has been low recently. - **Zinc**: Close the internal - external reverse arbitrage position [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: The RMB exchange rate has an impact on the domestic price, and the internal - external price ratio has dropped rapidly. The end of the domestic consumption peak season and the Diwali - supported gold consumption in India have also contributed to this decline. - **Silver**: The spot discount has widened, and the import window is closed [3].

甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/05/1 2 801 2437 2395 2560 2625 2510 2705 257 332 187 160 -880 2025/05/1 3 801 2460 2415 2565 2635 2515 2705 260 340 174 160 -899 2025/05/1 4 801 2525 2470 2575 2645 2515 2738 266 340 191 155 -1002 2025/05/1 5 801 2425 2418 2580 2645 2515 2738 262 332 132 155 -899 2025/05/1 6 801 2397 2375 2560 2645 2515 2730 261 332 107 60 -859 日度变化 0 -28 -43 -20 0 0 -8 -1 0 -25 -95 40 观点 伊朗发货少，05时间不够，目前预计4月底库存将去化至季节性低位，警惕伊朗后期发货仍不及预 期，5 ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/14 | 日期 | 动力煤期 | | 江苏现货 华南现货 | 鲁南折盘 | 西南折盘面 | 河北折盘 | 西北折盘 | CFR中国 | CFR东南 | | 进口利润 主力基差 | 盘面MTO | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 货 | | | 面 | | 面 | 面 | | 亚 | | | 利润 | | 2025/05/0 7 | 801 | 2432 | 2388 | 2565 | 2650 | 2585 | 2695 | 259 | 340 | 179 | 170 | -788 | | 2025/05/0 8 | 801 | 2400 | 2365 | 2565 | 2640 | 2585 | 2695 | 258 | 340 | 158 | 170 | -763 | | 2025/05/0 9 | 801 | 2420 | 2373 | 2560 | 2640 | 2585 | 2695 | 257 | 340 | 15 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, due to low shipments from Iran and insufficient time for the 05 contract, inventory is expected to decline to a seasonal low by the end of April. Be vigilant of continued lower - than - expected shipments from Iran. Assuming normal imports and the shutdown of Shenghong in May, inventory will accumulate, but the low inventory at the end of April will still be factored into trading. An unexpected supply gap in the 05 contract could keep inventory low, providing a safety margin for long positions [1] - For polyethylene, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries have accumulated inventory during holidays. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 05 basis is +300 in North and East China. Import profit is around - 400 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, other spreads are oscillating, and LD is weakening. Domestic linear production has increased month - on - month as maintenance in February decreased. Attention should be paid to US quotes and the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [6] - For polypropylene, upstream and mid - stream inventories have accumulated. The basis is +10, non - standard spreads are neutral, and import profit is around - 500. There are no reports of large - scale export transactions. Propylene is oscillating, and powder feedstock plant operation is stable. The scheduled production of drawn products is neutral. With few known future maintenance plans, supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average, and raw material inventory is neutral while finished - product inventory is slightly high. Given over - capacity, the 05 contract is under pressure. To relieve the pressure, there needs to be a significant increase in exports or monthly maintenance of 2 million - ton PDH plants [6] - For PVC, the basis has strengthened to 05 - 120, and the ex - factory basis is - 280. Downstream operation is seasonal, and there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. With concentrated spring maintenance, the operation rate is expected to reach 75% temporarily. In the second quarter, attention should be paid to the scale of spring maintenance after profit compression. Export orders are fair. In April, pay attention to the Politburo meeting. Coal prices are stable, the cost of semi - coke is weak, and calcium carbide may struggle to expand profits with PVC maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 400. Pay attention to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 300. Currently, the static inventory is at a high level, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Focus on exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operation rates [10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - Price data shows that from May 6 to May 12, 2025, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801, the Jiangsu spot price increased by 17, the South China spot price increased by 22, and the盘面MTO profit decreased by 66 [1] Plastic Polyethylene - From May 6 to May 12, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 780, the East China LL price decreased by 10, and the主力期货 price increased by 114 [6] Polypropylene - From May 6 to May 12, 2025, the Shandong propylene price increased by 70, the主力期货 price increased by 63, and the warehouse receipt increased by 276 [6] PVC - From May 6 to May 12, 2025, the Shandong caustic soda price increased by 10, the East China calcium - carbide - based PVC price increased by 10, and the basis (high - end delivery product) increased by 10 [9][10]