Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 20, 2025 [3] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] Key Data Summary BR (Cis - Polybutadiene Rubber) - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the BR main contract (12) on November 19 was 10,705, up 200 from the previous day and 225 from the previous week. The open interest was 71,378, down 643 from the previous day and 4,987 from the previous week. The trading volume was 120,480, down 20,666 from the previous day but up 20,847 from the previous week. The warrant quantity was 12,030, down 220 from the previous day and 480 from the previous week. The long - short ratio was 29.67, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1. [4] - **Basis/Spread Data**: The cis - polybutadiene basis was - 100 on November 19 compared to the previous day and - 75 compared to the previous week. The styrene - butadiene basis was - 200 on November 19 compared to the previous day and - 75 compared to the previous week. The 12 - 01 spread was - 40 on November 19, down 45 from the previous day and 40 from the previous week. The 01 - 02 spread was 15 on November 19, down 5 from the previous day but up 10 from the previous week. The RU - BR spread was 4,735 on November 19, down 55 from the previous day and 175 from the previous week. The NR - BR spread was 1,775 on November 19, down 65 from the previous day and 145 from the previous week. [4] - **Spot Data**: The Shandong market price was 10,650 on November 19, up 100 from the previous day and 150 from the previous week. The Transfar market price was 10,450 on November 19, up 50 from the previous day and 30 from the previous week. The Qilu ex - factory price was 10,500 on November 19, with no daily change but up 200 from the previous week. The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1,350 on November 19, with no daily change but down 50 from the previous week. The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1,640 on November 19, with no daily change but down 45 from the previous week. [4] - **Profit Data**: The spot processing profit was 800 on November 19, down 104 from the previous day and 207 from the previous week. The import profit was - 699 on November 19, up 102 from the previous day and 532 from the previous week. The export profit was 1,744 on November 19, down 89 from the previous day and 431 from the previous week. [4] BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Data**: The Shandong market price was 7,500 on November 19, up 200 from the previous day and 350 from the previous week. The Jiangsu market price was 7,225 on November 19, up 175 from the previous day and 275 from the previous week. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 7,200 on November 19, up 200 from the previous day and 200 from the previous week. The CFR China price was 770 on November 19, with no daily change but down 20 from the previous week. [4] - **Profit Data**: The ethylene cracking profit was N/A on November 19. The carbon - four extraction profit was N/A on November 19. The butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 1,589 on November 19, up 175 from the previous day and 135 from the previous week. The import profit was 890 on November 19, up 176 from the previous day and 425 from the previous week. The export profit was - 1,460 on November 19, down 295 from the previous day. The styrene - butadiene production profit was 1,400 on November 19, down 50 from the previous day but up 200 from the previous week. The ABS production profit was N/A on November 19. The SBS production profit was - 360 on November 19, down 140 from the previous day and 200 from the previous week. [4] Data Sources - The data in the report is sourced from Mysteel and Wind [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Fats and Oils - Palm oil is expected to maintain a low - level volatile or weakly rebound trend, with Dalian palm oil futures fluctuating between 8600 - 8700 yuan. There is pressure to weaken again. Port inventory may rise due to reduced demand in cold weather [1]. - For soybean oil, the 2025/26 US soybean oil supply is up, but the ending stocks are down. CBOT soybean oil is supported. In China, the spot price is slightly up, and the inventory is stable [1]. 2.2 Live Pigs - The spot price is weak, and the market is in a weak - range oscillation. The mid - term outlook is not optimistic. The 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be held [3]. 2.3 Meal Products - The USDA report lacks positive factors for US soybeans. China's soybean meal supply is loose, and the price will maintain a wide - range oscillation [8]. 2.4 Corn and Corn Starch - Corn has a short - term supply - demand imbalance, and the price rebounds, but the upside is limited due to supply pressure. Attention should be paid to selling and purchasing rhythms and storage [10]. 2.5 Sugar - India's sugar export may face difficulties in the short term. Brazil's supply is loose. The raw sugar price will oscillate around 14 cents/pound. The sugar market will maintain an oscillation this week [14]. 2.6 Cotton - The 11 - month USDA report is bearish for cotton. In China, new cotton supply is high, and demand is weak, but some downstream support exists. The short - term cotton price will be under pressure [15]. 2.7 Eggs - The egg market supply is loose, and demand is weak in the short term. The price decline has not widened, and the market will be weakly oscillating. Near - month short positions can be closed gradually [17][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fats and Oils - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8590 yuan, unchanged from November 14. The basis is 308 yuan, down 7.78%. The 2025/26 US soybean oil supply is up to 322.76 billion pounds [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong is 8590 yuan, up 20 yuan. The basis is - 54 yuan, down 103.70%. The inventory may rise [1]. 3.2 Live Pigs - **Futures**: The main contract basis is - 45 yuan, down 120%. The price of live pigs 2605 is 12140 yuan, down 0.45% [3]. - **Spot**: The price in Henan is 11650 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan. The slaughter volume is up 0.05% [3]. 3.3 Meal Products - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 3060 yuan, down 0.65%. The basis is - 3 yuan, up 90.63% [8]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2420 yuan, down 3.2%. The basis is - 29 yuan, down 390% [8]. 3.4 Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 in Jinzhou Port is 2182 yuan, down 0.14%. The basis is 48 yuan, up 92% [10]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 is 2489 yuan, down 0.64%. The basis is 21 yuan, up 320% [10]. 3.5 Sugar - **Futures**: The price of sugar 2601 is 5458 yuan, down 0.22%. The 1 - 5 spread is 60 yuan, down 9.09% [14]. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning is 5600 yuan, down 1.06%. The national sugar production is up 12.03% [14]. 3.6 Cotton - **Futures**: The price of cotton 2605 is 13455 yuan, down 0.11%. The 5 - 1 spread is 10 yuan, down 50% [15]. - **Spot**: The price of Xinjiang 3128B is 14579 yuan, down 0.1%. The commercial inventory is up 70.4% [15]. 3.7 Eggs - **Futures**: The price of egg 12 contract is 2987 yuan/500KG, down 1.52%. The 12 - 01 spread is - 242 yuan, down 19.8% [17]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the producing area is 2.96 yuan/jin, down 0.82%. The laying hen inventory is high [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Methanol: The current situation remains poor, with Iran's plant shutdown slower than expected. High imports are expected in November, making it difficult to resolve the contradictions in the 01 contract. It is anticipated that the port sanctions issue will be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, but inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the situation in the inland region. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it does not affect profits [2]. - Polyethylene: The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, other price differentials are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. Maintenance in September is flat compared to the previous period, and recent domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New device pressure is high in 2025, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [7]. - Polypropylene: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differentials are neutral. European and American markets are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. Draw production scheduling is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Current downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - PVC: The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Northwest plants have seasonal overhauls in summer, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have slightly declined. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profits are under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support high - grade caustic soda. PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From November 10 - 14, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2065 to 2060, the South China spot price decreased from 2068 to 2048, and the Northwest discounted - to - futures price decreased from 2603 to 2580. The daily change on November 14 showed a 0 change in power coal futures, a - 17 change in Jiangsu spot price, and a - 25 change in the Northwest discounted - to - futures price [2]. Polyethylene - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 10 - 14, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price was mostly stable at 740 (except for November 14 with no data). The North China LL price increased from 6770 to 6830, and the two - oil inventory remained at 12067 on November 14. The daily change on November 14 showed a 40 increase in North China LL price and a 35 increase in import profit [7]. Polypropylene - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 10 - 14, 2025, the Shandong propylene price increased from 5750 to 5790, the Northeast Asia propylene price remained at 695, and the two - oil inventory remained at 14642. The daily change on November 14 showed a 30 increase in Shandong propylene price and a 65 increase in East China PP price [7]. PVC - **Price and Profit Data**: From November 10 - 14, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price was mostly 2400 (except for November 14 with no data), the Shandong caustic soda price remained at 802, and the East China calcium carbide - based PVC price increased from 4570 to 4580. The daily change on November 14 showed a 10 increase in the East China calcium carbide - based PVC price [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats - Palm oil in Malaysia is expected to have a record - high production in 2025, pressuring the benchmark price. However, Indonesia's B85 policy provides support. Dalian palm oil futures may continue to rise in the short - term but could face resistance below 9000 yuan. For soybeans, the US soybean production cut in the USDA report was less than expected, causing CBOT soybeans to decline. In China, soybean oil inventory is at a high level, and downstream demand is weak, with a possible short - term correction for Dalian soybean oil [1]. 2.2 Corn and Corn Starch - Corn has a short - term supply - demand imbalance due to factors like farmers' reluctance to sell and transportation issues, leading to a price rebound. But considering the large supply during the new - season harvest, the upward movement is limited, and attention should be paid to the 2200 - 2220 pressure level [3]. 2.3 Sugar - India's sugar export in the 25/26 season may face short - term difficulties, and Brazil's supply is in a relaxed state. The raw sugar price is expected to fluctuate around 14 cents/pound. The domestic sugar market is likely to remain volatile next week [7][8]. 2.4 Cotton - The 11 - month USDA report is bearish for cotton. Globally, production has increased, and demand has only slightly risen, leading to an increase in ending inventory. In China, new cotton supply is high in the short - term, and downstream demand is weak, but some local products offer support. Short - term cotton prices may be under pressure [9]. 2.5 Meal - The USDA's November supply - demand balance sheet for soybeans met market expectations. There is a lack of substantial positive factors for US soybeans, and China's high soybean inventory and reserve rotation expectations suppress the market. Bean meal is expected to trade in a wide range [11]. 2.6 Eggs - The supply of eggs remains high due to stable laying - hen inventory, and demand is in a seasonal slump. Although the decline in egg prices has slowed, the market is expected to be weak and volatile this week [15]. 2.7 Pigs - The spot price of pigs is weak, but the market may strengthen tomorrow. The overall November pig - selling progress is slow, which may support prices. The market is in a range - bound pattern, with limited upside and downside in the short - term. A 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be continued [17]. 3. Summary by Industry 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On November 14, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8590 yuan, up 0.35% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2601 was 8256 yuan, down 0.72%. The basis of Y2601 increased by 36.89% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8590 yuan, up 0.23%. The futures price of P2601 was 8644 yuan, down 1.23%. The basis of P2601 increased by 70.33%. The import cost and profit decreased [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 10290 yuan, up 0.29%. The futures price of OI601 was 9923 yuan, down 0.52%. The basis of OI601 increased by 28.77% [1]. 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 at Jinzhou Port fluctuated. The basis increased by 78.57%. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 5.63%. The import profit increased by 5.00% [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 decreased slightly. The basis increased by 66.67%. The 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged, and the starch - corn 01 spread decreased by 0.31% [3]. 3.3 Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 decreased by 0.76%, and sugar 2605 decreased by 0.53%. ICE raw sugar increased by 2.91%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 16.46% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged. The basis in Nanning and Kunming increased. The import prices of Brazilian sugar decreased [7]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, while the national sales rate decreased. The industrial inventory in some regions increased [7]. 3.4 Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 decreased by 0.19%, and cotton 2601 decreased by 0.30%. ICE US cotton decreased by 0.68%. The 5 - 1 spread increased by 300.00% [9]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Xinjiang and the CC Index decreased slightly. The basis increased [9]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory, import volume, and some other indicators increased, while textile exports decreased [9]. 3.5 Meal - **Bean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.33%, and the futures price of M2601 increased by 0.68%. The basis decreased by 52.38%. The import crushing margin decreased significantly [11]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the futures price of RM2601 decreased slightly. The basis increased by 25.00% [11]. - **Soybeans**: The price of the soybean No.1 futures contract increased by 2.08%, and the soybean No.2 futures contract increased by 0.37%. The basis of both decreased [11]. 3.6 Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 12 - contract decreased by 0.23%, and the 01 - contract decreased by 0.92%. The 12 - 01 spread increased by 10.22% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price decreased by 0.34%. The basis decreased by 6.54% [15]. - **Related Indicators**: Egg - chick prices remained unchanged, and the egg - feed ratio decreased. The breeding profit decreased [15]. 3.7 Pigs - **Futures Market**: The price of the pig 2605 decreased by 0.33%, and the 2601 decreased by 0.72%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 12.00%. The basis increased by 103.57% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions fluctuated. The daily slaughter volume decreased by 0.74% [17]. - **Related Indicators**: The weekly white - strip price remained unchanged, and the piglet price increased slightly. The self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits decreased [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The current situation remains poor, with Iranian shutdowns slower than expected. November is likely to see high imports, and it's difficult to resolve the contradictions in the 01 contract. Port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, but inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the inland market. Although coal prices have strengthened recently, it doesn't affect profits [1]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Foreign markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, other price differentials are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New device pressure is high in 2025, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [6]. - **Polypropylene**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differentials are neutral. European and American markets are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [6]. - **PVC**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, and there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Northwest devices have seasonal overhauls in summer, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have decreased slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profits are under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The FOB price of caustic soda exports is 380, and attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工率 [6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From November 5 to 11, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of methanol in different regions showed certain fluctuations. For example, the Jiangsu spot price increased from 2082 to 2070, and the Northwest discounted - to - futures price reached 2603 on November 10 [1]. - **Profit and Basis**: Import profit,主力基差, and盘面MTO利润 also changed during this period. The主力基差 remained at - 40 on November 11, and the import profit decreased slightly [1]. Polyethylene - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 to 11, 2025, prices of different types of polyethylene in various regions changed. For example, the price of East China LL decreased from 7025 to 6950. The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased from 71 to 12073, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased from 12669 to 12073 [6]. - **Market Indicators**: The basis of the 09 contract, import profit, and other indicators are also provided. The import profit is around - 200, and the basis in North China and East China is - 110 and - 50 respectively [6]. Polypropylene - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 to 11, 2025, prices of polypropylene in different regions and related raw materials changed. For example, the price of East China PP increased from 6425 to 6375. The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased from 71 to 14629, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 14629 [6]. - **Profit and Market Indicators**: Export profit,主力期货 price, and basis are also included. The export profit was - 18 on November 5 and - 11 on November 10, and the basis remained at - 100 [6]. PVC - **Price and Cost Data**: From November 5 to 11, 2025, prices of PVC in different production methods and regions changed. For example, the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China decreased from 4610 to 4570. The price of Northwest calcium carbide remained at 2400, and the price of Shandong caustic soda remained at 807 [6]. - **Profit and Basis**: Export profit, comprehensive profit, and basis are also provided. The basis of high - end delivery products decreased from - 70 to - 90 [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market has support below and pressure above in the near term. There is continuous pressure from new cotton supply, but yarn mills are actively replenishing their inventories. In the long term, policies and weather are the key factors. The strategies are to conduct reverse arbitrage on the January - May spread when prices are high and to layout long positions for distant - month contracts when prices are low [4] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Data Domestic Cotton Futures - CF01 on November 5 was 13615, up 80 (0.59%) from November 4; CF05 was 13620, up 65 (0.48%); CF01 - 05 was - 5, up 15 from the previous day [3] Domestic Cotton Spot - In Xinjiang on November 5, the price was 14627, down 13 (-0.09%); in Henan it was 14856, down 34 (-0.23%); in Shandong it was 14873, unchanged (0.00%); Xinjiang - main continuous basis was 1012, down 93 [3] Domestic Yarn Futures and Spot - Domestic yarn futures CY on November 5 was 19820, up 25 (0.13%); domestic yarn spot C32S price index was 20520, unchanged (0.00%) [3] US Cotton Spot - CT (USD/磅) was unchanged at 65.15; the arrival price was 75.20, down 0.3 (-0.40%); 1% quota pick - up price was 13158, down 51 (-0.39%); sliding - scale duty pick - up price was 14069, down 29 (-0.21%) [3] Spread Data - The yarn - cotton spread (futures) was 6205, down 55; the yarn - cotton spread (spot) was 911, up 22 [3] Other Data - The domestic - foreign spread (spot) was 1715, up 51 [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report No explicit core view is presented in the provided content. The report mainly offers data on the market situation of synthetic rubber, including price, volume, basis, and profit information for BR and BD. 3. Summary by Related Catalog BR (Cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber) - **Futures Information**: On November 3, the BR主力合约(12) price was 10360, down 225 from the previous day and 445 from the previous week. The open interest was 37796, down 3692 from the previous day and 10822 from the previous week. The trading volume was 149850, up 31566 from the previous day and 37414 from the previous week. The warrant quantity remained at 8580, with no daily or weekly change. The long - short ratio was 22.03, down 2 from the previous day and 6 from the previous week [3]. - **Basis/Spread/Inter - Variety Spread**: The cis - butadiene basis was 140, down 25 from the previous day and 5 from the previous week. The styrene - butadiene basis was 740, up 125 from the previous day. The 12 - 01 spread was 30, up 45 from the previous week. The 01 - 02 spread was 5, up 15 from the previous day and 15 from the previous week. The RU - BR spread was 4735, up 235 from the previous day and 180 from the previous week. The NR - BR spread was 1840, up 195 from the previous day and 115 from the previous week [3]. - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 10500, down 250 from the previous day and 450 from the previous week. The Transfar market price was 10350, down 250 from the previous day and 550 from the previous week. The Qilu ex - factory price was 10500, down 500 from the previous day and 500 from the previous week. The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1450, with no daily change and down 25 from the previous week. The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1700, with no daily or weekly change [3]. - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was 961, up 10 from the previous day and 320 from the previous week. The import profit was - 1666, down 260 from the previous day and 277 from the previous week. The export profit was 2315, up 227 from the previous day and 419 from the previous week [3]. BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 7195, down 255 from the previous day and 755 from the previous week. The Jiangsu market price was 7200, down 200 from the previous day and 700 from the previous week. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 7200, down 300 from the previous day and 1000 from the previous week. The CFR China price was 850, down 60 from the previous day and 110 from the previous week [3]. - **Profit**: The carbon - four extraction profit was not available for calculation on November 3. The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 1376, down 312 from the previous day and 742 from the previous week. The import profit was 215, up 276 from the previous day and 167 from the previous week. The export profit was - 294, up 37 from the previous day and - 193 from the previous week. The Japanese production profit was 1238, down 275 from the previous day and 275 from the previous week. The ABS production profit and SBS production profit data were partially unavailable [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to strengthened import control on syrups and premixes, Zhengzhou sugar prices rebounded recently, but the external market remained weak. Since August this year, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil has exceeded last year due to a significant increase in the proportion of sugarcane for sugar production, leading to a continuous decline in raw sugar prices. With an expected increase in production in the northern hemisphere's major producing countries in the 2025/26 new crushing season, the upward space for raw sugar is limited, and the import profit has reached a five - year high. It is recommended to wait for the weakening of the rebound strength and then look for opportunities to short [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Syrup and Premix Import Situation - The number of enterprises whose imports of Thai syrups and premixes were suspended by the customs increased from 35 to 44, and the effective ones were left with 16. The scope of suspended imports expanded from tariff number 170290 to 2106906. In September 2025, the total import volume of syrups and white sugar premixes (including tariff numbers 170290 and 2106906) was 15.14 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.52 tons. From January to September 2025, the total import volume was 88.52 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 85.24 tons. In the 2024/25 crushing season, the total import volume was 152.44 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 62.96 tons. Stricter supervision on tariff number 2106906 is expected to further reduce future imports and boost Zhengzhou sugar prices [5]. Import Cost and Profit - Based on the March contract price of raw sugar, on October 30, the estimated out - of - quota import cost from Brazil was 5025 yuan/ton, and the in - quota import cost was 4049 yuan/ton. For the January contract of Zhengzhou sugar, the in - quota import profit was 1423 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota import profit was 447 yuan/ton. For the spot, the current import - processed sugar price was about 6050 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota spot import profit reached 905 yuan/ton, a five - year high, indicating great import pressure next year. With an expected increase in domestic production in the new crushing season, the supply pressure will still increase [6]. Brazilian Sugar Production - Datagro predicted that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 crushing season would reach 4142 tons, a 3.1% increase from the previous season. For the 2026/27 crushing season, the predicted sugar production was 4230 tons, an increase of 88 tons from the current season. In the first half of October, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 3403.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The sugar production was 248.4 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.25%. As of the first half of October in the 2025/26 crushing season, the cumulative sugar production was 3601.6 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.89% [12][13]. Northern Hemisphere Sugar Production Forecast - The ISMA estimated that India's total sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season would increase by 18% to about 3490 tons. The OSCB estimated that Thailand's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season would be 1005 tons, basically the same as the previous season. With an expected increase in production in major northern - hemisphere sugar - producing countries, the upward space for raw sugar is limited [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn market is in a narrow - range oscillation. Although the US - China relationship has eased recently and the price has rebounded, the high production level remains unchanged. The Chinese market has high import profits for foreign corn, and the domestic corn spot still has room to decline in the short term. Corn starch prices are mainly affected by corn prices and downstream stocking, and the short - term spot is expected to decline, with the 01 - contract on the futures market bottom - oscillating [4][6][7]. - The trading strategy suggests that the US corn has support at 400 cents per bushel. For 05 and 01 corn, it is advisable to wait and see. For the spread between 01 corn and starch, one can try to short the spread when it is high. In the options market, a short - term strategy of accumulating puts and calls with rolling operations is recommended [8][9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Market**: Among corn futures contracts, C2601 closed at 2116, down 7 (- 0.33%); C2605 closed at 2221, down 9 (- 0.41%); C2509 closed at 2253, down 8 (- 0.36%). Among corn starch futures contracts, CS2601 closed at 2427, up 3 (0.12%); CS2605 closed at 2540, down 1 (- 0.04%); CS2509 closed at 2590, down 3 (- 0.12%) [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price in Qinggang was 1970, unchanged; in Guangdong Port, it was 2250, down 20. Starch spot prices were stable. The basis for corn and starch also varied by region [2]. - **Spreads**: In the corn market, the spread of C01 - C05 was - 105, up 2; in the starch market, the spread of CS01 - CS05 was - 113, up 4. The cross - variety spreads also had corresponding changes [2]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn market is in a narrow - range oscillation. The Chinese market has high import profits for foreign corn. The spot price in the Northeast is falling, while in North China, it has started to stabilize and rebound. The domestic breeding demand is stable, but the corn spot still has room to decline in the short term [4][6]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn spot in Shandong has stabilized. The starch inventory has decreased this week. Due to the significant decline in corn prices, enterprises are making good profits. However, the corn in North China may still decline at the end of October, and the starch spot is expected to follow suit [7]. 3.3 Corn Options The recommended option strategy is a short - term strategy of accumulating puts and calls with rolling operations [11]. 3.4 Related Attachments The attachments include graphs showing the spot prices of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 01 contract, the spreads of corn 1 - 5, the spreads of corn starch 1 - 5, the basis of corn starch 01 contract, and the spreads of corn starch 01 contract [13][15][20].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a research report on agricultural products in the commodities sector, specifically focusing on the daily situation of oils and fats on October 22, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - Short - term, the oil and fat market is expected to be slightly weak and volatile. It's advisable to wait and see, and consider buying on significant dips [9] Group 4: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on the 2601 contract were 8238, 9164, and 9834 respectively, with price changes of (56), (130), and (30). The spot basis varied by region and variety, with some showing no change and others having small fluctuations [3] - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: For the 1 - 5 monthly spread, soybean oil was 170 with a change of (10), palm oil was 26 with a change of 14, and rapeseed oil was 386 with a change of 28 [3] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was (926) with a change of 74, the OI - Y spread was 1596 with a change of 26, the OI - P spread was 670 with a change of 100, and the oil - meal ratio was 2.86 with a change of (0.02) [3] - **Import Profits**: The CNF price of 24 - degree palm oil was 1102 with a profit of (172) for the November shipment from Malaysia and Indonesia. The FOB price of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was 1085 with a profit of (822) for the November shipment [3] - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: In the 42nd week of 2025, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 122.4, 57.6, and 54.9 million tons respectively. Compared with last week, soybean oil decreased by 4.11 million tons, palm oil increased by 2.81 million tons, and rapeseed oil decreased by 2.2 million tons [3] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis International Market - MPOA estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20 increased by 10.77% month - on - month, and UOB estimates an increase of 10% - 14%. Indonesia's biodiesel consumption from January - September 2025 was 10.57 billion liters, nearly 10% higher than the same period last year [5] Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: Due to the expected large increase in Malaysia's palm oil production in October, the palm oil futures price closed down by over 1%. As of October 17, 2025, the commercial inventory was 57.57 million tons, a 5.13% increase from last week. The import profit inversion has narrowed, and there was a reported near - month purchase. The basis is stable to weak. It's expected to be volatile in the short term, and one can consider lightly testing long positions in the 05 contract on significant dips [5] - **Soybean Oil**: The soybean oil futures price closed slightly down. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2.1662 million tons with an operating rate of 59.59%. As of October 17, 2025, the commercial inventory was 122.4 million tons, a 3.25% decrease from last week. The basis is stable. With the decrease in soybean arrivals and crushing, the inventory may decline slightly, but overall supply is sufficient. It's expected to be volatile, and one can consider buying on significant dips in the 05 contract [6] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil futures price closed slightly down. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume in coastal areas was 120,000 tons with an operating rate of 3.2%. As of October 17, 2025, the coastal inventory was 54.9 million tons, a decrease of 2.2 million tons. The European rapeseed oil FOB price increased, and the import profit inversion widened. Rapeseed imports decreased significantly. The basis is stable, and the de - stocking trend in coastal areas is expected to continue. The fundamental situation has little change, and the continuous de - stocking supports the price [7] Group 6: Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Trading**: Wait and see in the short term and consider buying on significant dips [9] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [9] - **Options**: Wait and see [9] Group 7: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts showing the spot basis of different oils and fats in different regions, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads from 2016 - 2025 [12][15]