逆向投资
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适度逆向 在重复坚持中得超额
Zhong Zheng Wang· 2025-09-02 06:09
Group 1 - The A-share market has shown significant improvement in market sentiment and risk appetite, with the total public fund management scale reaching 34.05 trillion yuan by the end of Q2, an increase of 2.24 trillion yuan or 7% from the end of Q1 [1] - The performance of actively managed equity funds has rebounded, driven by the ability to generate excess returns, exemplified by the outstanding performance of Dongfanghong New Power Mixed A fund, which achieved a cumulative net value growth rate of 412.39% since its inception [1][2] - Zhou Yun, the fund manager, emphasizes a value-oriented and moderately contrarian investment strategy, focusing on high-quality companies with reasonable valuations [2][3] Group 2 - Zhou Yun's contrarian investment approach is based on deep research and value judgment, avoiding the pitfalls of blindly following market consensus [3] - The investment strategy involves recognizing market trends while maintaining a focus on value, as demonstrated during the structural bull market from 2019 to 2020, where Zhou Yun chose to avoid overpriced core assets despite facing performance pressure [3][4] - Zhou Yun's understanding of corporate value and market cycles has led to tangible returns, highlighting the importance of adapting strategies in response to significant market changes [5][6] Group 3 - The essence of successful investing lies in balancing the recognition of trends with value preservation, requiring investors to be both contrarian and trend-sensitive [6] - Zhou Yun advocates for a systematic review of investment processes, emphasizing the importance of learning from past experiences to refine investment methodologies [9] - The performance of Zhou Yun's managed funds, such as Dongfanghong New Power Mixed A and Dongfanghong JD Big Data Mixed A, showcases strong cumulative returns, outperforming their respective benchmarks [9][11]
上半年表现惊艳的港股主题私募,最近怎么样?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-01 03:54
Group 1 - The offshore RMB exchange rate surged over 300 points, breaking the 7.12 mark, reaching a nearly 9-month high on August 28 [1] - Historical experience indicates that bull markets in Hong Kong stocks are often accompanied by rapid appreciation of the offshore RMB [3] - Despite the focus on the A-share bull market, Hong Kong stocks have also been part of the current market rally, with significant gains, especially in technology and innovative pharmaceuticals [4] Group 2 - Private equity A focuses on deep value investing, adhering to Graham's "cigar butt" philosophy, investing in undervalued securities [5] - The fund has achieved nearly 70% returns this year, with a maximum drawdown of only -5.14%, and has consistently generated positive returns over six years [8] - Private equity B emphasizes individual stock alpha, maintaining high positions when extreme valuation bubbles are absent, with a historical average position of around 70% [9][10] Group 3 - Private equity C adopts a contrarian approach, focusing on undervalued assets and maintaining a high position without following market trends [16][17] - The fund has achieved a 15% return this year and a 31% return over the past year, with a consistent annual return of 21% over six years [22] - The investment strategy involves a diversified portfolio across various sectors, including industrial, telecommunications, and energy, while avoiding crowded trades [20][23]
邓晓峰、冯柳、董承非、赵军、蒋彤等私募大佬的二季度持仓曝光!年内平均涨幅超33%!
私募排排网· 2025-09-01 03:46
本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 (点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ) 截至8月31日,A股公司2025年的中报已经落下帷幕,仅剩3家ST公司还未披露财报。根据中报数据梳理发现, 不少知名私募基金经理管理的私 募产品现身在 A股公司的前十大流通股东名单之中 。 为了给读者提供一些参考,笔者根据A股公司披露的十大流通股东数据,梳理出了 冯柳、邓晓峰、裘国根、董承非、夏俊杰、蒋彤、赵军、吴伟 志、卓利伟 (按持股市值排序)等9位知名的百亿私募基金经理旗下产品在二季度末的A股持仓。 根据Choice数据, 截至 2025年二季度 末, 9位私募大佬旗下产品合计持有41家A股公司,持股 市值 合计约为 298.31 亿元 , 截至 8月底,今 年来涨幅平均值约为33.32% 。 其中, 持股公司数在 5家以上的有冯柳、夏俊杰、邓晓峰、董承非。持股市值超100亿元的仅有冯柳和邓晓峰。 下面,笔者就为大家详细盘点各位私募大佬的持仓和动向。 需要说明的是,个股今年以来的涨跌幅,不代表基金经理旗下产品重仓股的浮盈或 者浮亏比例。( 点此领取9位百亿私募大佬最新持仓名单 ) | # 宮 | 股票简称 | 二季度末 | 二季度末 | 二 ...
鹏华收益: 鹏华普天收益证券投资基金2025年中期报告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-08-27 15:24
Fund Overview - The fund name is Penghua Putian Income Securities Investment Fund, abbreviated as Penghua Putian Income Mixed, with a total fund share of 168,262,456.89 shares at the end of the reporting period [2][3] - The fund aims to achieve long-term stable appreciation of assets by investing primarily in dividend-paying stocks and bonds, with a target stock investment ratio of around 70% and a minimum bond investment ratio of 20% [2][3] - The fund's investment strategy focuses on companies with a good dividend history, strong financial health, and a leading position in their industry [2][3] Financial Performance - The fund reported a profit of 18,097,139.09 RMB for the reporting period, with a weighted average net value profit rate of 4.93% and a fund share net value growth rate of 5.00% [3][12] - The fund's cumulative net value growth rate since inception is 1,233.66% [3][12] - The fund's net asset value at the end of the reporting period was 374,187,789.57 RMB, with a fund share net value of 2.224 RMB [3][16] Market Analysis - The market maintained a volatile pattern in the first half of the year, with significant excess returns in sectors such as robotics, innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, and AI [12][13] - The overall valuation of A-shares has returned to a reasonable range, with risk premiums decreasing but still not reaching historical averages, indicating a medium to high cost-performance ratio [12][13] - The outlook for the second half of the year suggests continued volatility, with external demand facing downward pressure and the need for incremental policies to counteract fundamental downturns [13][14] Investment Strategy - The fund manager emphasizes a proactive investment strategy in bonds to reduce overall portfolio volatility and improve risk composition [2][3] - The focus remains on sectors with high cost-performance ratios, particularly in pharmaceuticals and electronics, with an expectation of significant returns from semiconductor and panel investments [14][15] - The investment approach includes selecting high-quality growth stocks with low valuations and positive fundamental trends, as well as industries with supply constraints that may lead to profit recovery [14][15]
夏春:坚持“逆向投资”思维,享受稳健财产性收入
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-26 05:17
Group 1 - The central financial work conference emphasizes the importance of five key areas: technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, guiding high-quality financial development [1] - The recent strong performance of the A-share market indicates the emergence of a bull market, driven by policy initiatives and a reversal in investor confidence [1][5] - The "Five Arrows" policy aims to stimulate macroeconomic adjustments, expand domestic demand, optimize the business environment, stabilize the real estate market, and boost capital markets [5] Group 2 - A-share market's reversal began in late September last year, with significant contributions from valuation recovery and narrative shifts, alongside China's resilience against U.S. trade pressures [5][6] - Despite the positive outlook, there are concerns about potential reversals due to stringent U.S. trade agreements and the weak profit-generating capacity of leading A-share companies [2][6] - The long-term investment strategy in a volatile A-share market should focus on contrarian investing rather than following trends, with a preference for strategies that favor equities over bonds [2][6] Group 3 - The "pyramid allocation" method is recommended for asset allocation, suggesting 40% in safe assets, 30% in bond funds, 20% in equity funds, and 10% in private equity and cryptocurrencies [2][12] - The A-share market is expected to experience a bull market by 2025, with significant gains observed in major indices and a majority of stocks showing positive returns [5] Group 4 - The banking sector has seen a significant rise in stock prices, driven by policy support, high dividend attractiveness, and expectations of economic recovery [8] - The future performance of bank stocks will depend on the stabilization of net interest margins and improvements in asset quality, with high-quality companies likely to achieve excess returns [9] Group 5 - The cross-border payment industry in China is experiencing rapid growth due to the digitalization of global trade, the internationalization of the RMB, and the implementation of the digital RMB pilot [16] - Major payment institutions are expanding internationally, obtaining licenses in over 60 countries, while innovations in technology are enhancing payment efficiency and reducing costs [16][17]
为什么比尔·米勒能够拿住亚马逊26年?一场深度对话还原很多精彩细节
聪明投资者· 2025-08-25 07:04
Core Viewpoint - The discussion focuses on Bill Miller's investment philosophy, particularly his long-term investment in Amazon, which showcases his unique approach to value investing and decision-making in the face of market skepticism [2][4][7]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Bill Miller's investment style is characterized as "non-typical" or "alternative" value investing, blending valuation, fundamentals, odds, and time into practical judgments [5][34]. - Miller emphasizes the importance of defining a business correctly, as the description influences perception and investment decisions [5][19]. - The ability to switch between value and growth investing is a key aspect of Miller's pragmatic investment approach, allowing him to identify mispriced opportunities [34][38]. Group 2: Decision-Making Process - Miller's decision to invest in Amazon was influenced by his understanding of its business model, which he likened to Dell's negative working capital structure, allowing for high capital returns [4][14]. - He believes that understanding the underlying cash flow and operational efficiency is crucial, as demonstrated by his analysis of Amazon's financials during its early years [25][27]. - The ability to filter out market noise and maintain a clear perspective is essential for successful investing, as highlighted by Miller's approach to learning and continuous improvement [3][20]. Group 3: Resilience and Adaptability - Miller's resilience during market downturns, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis, showcases his ability to adapt and learn from past mistakes [39][42]. - His approach to investing is informed by a blend of philosophical insights, including pragmatism and language philosophy, which help him navigate complex market dynamics [22][31]. - The importance of maintaining a long-term perspective and the psychological challenges of holding investments through volatility are emphasized as critical components of successful investing [71][75]. Group 4: Practical Insights - The discussion highlights the significance of recognizing "explosive upside opportunities" in investments, as demonstrated by Miller's bets on Amazon and Bitcoin [67][68]. - Miller's investment decisions are often based on a calculated risk approach, where he assesses the potential for significant returns against the likelihood of loss [65][66]. - The ability to remain calm and rational during market turmoil is a trait that distinguishes successful investors like Miller, allowing them to make informed decisions rather than emotional ones [51][57].
今年最值得收藏的投资指南:重温《投资中最重要的事》50条经典法则
雪球· 2025-08-24 13:30
Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of recognizing risks during market upswings rather than merely chasing opportunities [2][3] - Understanding market nature is crucial, as cycles are eternal and human behavior remains unchanged [4] - The second-level thinking principle suggests evaluating whether current market optimism is excessive and if prices reflect true value [5] Group 2 - Investment decisions should prioritize value over price, focusing on the relationship between asset quality and its intrinsic value [6][7] - The philosophy of buying undervalued assets is highlighted, advocating for purchases when prices are significantly below intrinsic value [9] - The principle of margin of safety is essential, requiring purchases at prices well below intrinsic value to cushion against errors and market fluctuations [10] Group 3 - The focus should be on avoiding catastrophic investments rather than solely seeking winning opportunities [11] - Defensive investment strategies are particularly important in bull markets, emphasizing error avoidance [12] - Setting realistic return expectations in line with current market conditions is vital, especially at market peaks [13] Group 4 - Recognizing potential losses is more critical than focusing on potential gains [14] - The risk of permanent capital loss is a significant concern, overshadowing short-term price volatility [15] - Avoiding attempts to time the market is advised, as consistent short-term predictions are nearly impossible [16] Group 5 - Mastering emotional control is essential for maintaining rationality in investment decisions [17] - Greed and fear are identified as emotional adversaries that can lead to poor investment timing [18] - The importance of resisting the fear of missing out during bull markets and the fear of further losses during bear markets is emphasized [20] Group 6 - Acknowledging one's ignorance is the first step toward wisdom in investing, highlighting the importance of understanding unknowns [24] - Creating a negative checklist of what not to invest in is as crucial as identifying potential investments [25] Group 7 - Risk-return asymmetry indicates that high risk does not guarantee high returns; only by correctly identifying and assuming unnoticed risks can investors achieve high returns [27] - Great investors prioritize risk management over profit generation, making risk control a core investment principle [28] Group 8 - The essence of value investing lies in focusing on tangible factors like assets and cash flow while seeking to buy at undervalued prices [33] - Investors should concentrate on known areas, focusing on the fundamentals of companies, industries, and securities [34] Group 9 - The practice of contrarian investing is encouraged when prices deviate significantly from value, requiring courage and patience [36] - The greatest investment opportunities often arise from widespread pessimism, while the most significant risks stem from collective optimism [38] Group 10 - Continuous learning and integrating various investment concepts are vital for successful investing [40] - Establishing a consistent investment philosophy and maintaining a long-term perspective is crucial for recognizing true value over time [42]
startrader:特朗普大量购债,交易规模预计超1亿美元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-21 16:27
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights Trump's extensive bond trading activities since taking office in January 2025, involving municipal bonds, energy sector bonds, and well-known companies [1][3] - Trump's trust fund completed 690 bond transactions within the first seven months of his presidency, covering municipal bonds from 23 states, natural gas infrastructure bonds, water system financing bonds, and bonds from healthcare and educational institutions, with an estimated total scale of at least $100 million [3] - Trump's investment team purchased bonds from T-Mobile US, UnitedHealth Group, and Home Depot, and later invested in Meta Platforms, indicating a focus on companies in politically sensitive sectors [3][4] Group 2 - The documents reveal that Trump's net worth increased from $2.1 billion to $5.5 billion during his presidency, marking it as "the most profitable post-presidency in American history" according to Forbes [4] - Trump's strategy of purchasing bonds from a struggling educational institution reflects a "reverse investment" approach similar to buying cheap assets during the 2008 financial crisis, now targeting public sector debt markets [4] - Concerns have been raised regarding the ethical implications of a president buying bonds from companies that benefit from his policies, which could undermine market fairness, although no direct evidence of policy-related transactions has been established [4][5]
市场波动如何应对?上善资本首席经济学家夏春:坚持“逆向投资”思维|财富领航征程
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 07:24
中央金融工作会议指出,要做好科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融"五 篇大文章",为推进金融高质量发展指明了方向。鉴于此,新浪财经年度策划《金融新启 航》特别推出《财富领航征程》系列访谈栏目,深度对话金融机构高管、专家学者,共谋行 业发展之道。 专题:财富领航征程丨金融新启航 不过,夏春在看好政策发力、投资者热情上升带来市场行情延续的同时,也提醒投资留意可能的逆转。 一方面,美国虽与一些国家达成贸易协议,但条件仍然苛刻;另一方面,A股上市龙头公司市占率虽 高,但创造利润能力弱的局面在GDP平减指数持续负增长九个季度下,短期内难以改善,A股仅靠估值 修复的后劲可能不足。他强调,长远来看,在波动高的A股市场需坚持做逆向投资,而非盲目跟风,指 数增强和股少债多的策略更适合普通投资者。 近期,A股市场强势爆发,牛市特征显现。在夏春看来,本轮A股的逆转时刻始于去年9月底的政策发 力,除中央各部委将执行"五只箭"政策(宏观逆周期调节、扩大内需、优化营商环境、房地产止跌回 稳、提振资本市场)外,最大的驱动力来自估值和叙事(信心)逆转,以及中国应对美国贸易打压的底 气和韧性。 作为金融市场的重要组成部分,牛市是投 ...
医药投资中重要的几件事
青侨阳光投资交流· 2025-08-18 00:59
Core Viewpoint - The most important aspects of investing in the pharmaceutical industry are passion, focus, and honesty, which serve as foundational elements for building a robust investment framework [1][10]. Group 1: Importance of Passion - Passion provides an intrinsic motivation that sustains long-term engagement in investment, as opposed to external goals like profit [2][3]. - The transition from individual to institutional investor can enhance the sense of purpose and value recognition in pharmaceutical investments [2]. - A strong desire for a better future drives continuous learning and exploration, leading to meaningful changes in investment strategies [3]. Group 2: Focus and Comparative Advantage - The evolution of society towards greater specialization emphasizes the need for individuals to focus on their strengths to enhance efficiency and value [6]. - Accumulating comparative advantages requires a clear understanding of personal strengths and market dynamics [6]. - The optimal investment strategy involves identifying undervalued assets that the market currently overlooks but will recognize in the future [6][7]. Group 3: Industry Research and Trends - A reliable industry research framework is essential for predicting the future of companies within the pharmaceutical sector [7]. - The Chinese healthcare reform since 2015 mirrors the U.S. reforms of the 1980s, creating opportunities for innovative pharmaceutical products while pressuring traditional models [8]. - Understanding technological trends, such as advancements in antibody products and gene editing, is crucial for identifying investment opportunities [8]. Group 4: Valuation and Investment Strategy - A robust valuation framework is necessary to identify truly undervalued assets rather than simply reacting to price declines [9]. - The investment focus may shift from a heavy emphasis on research frameworks to developing a more efficient investment allocation strategy [9]. - The investment strategy will prioritize long-term, value-driven investments while remaining adaptable to market changes [9]. Group 5: Continuous Improvement through Honesty - Acknowledging personal limitations and errors is vital for maintaining a realistic perspective on market risks and opportunities [10][11]. - Building a solid foundational framework allows for the effective integration of external viewpoints and insights [10][11]. - The process of learning from past experiences, especially during market downturns, can lead to significant improvements in investment strategies [12]. Group 6: Market Dynamics and Cycles - Understanding macroeconomic trends is essential for navigating the cyclical nature of the pharmaceutical sector [13]. - Recognizing the impact of market sentiment and narrative shifts on stock prices can inform better investment decisions [14][15]. - The distinction between strategic and tactical holdings is crucial for managing investment portfolios effectively [14].