交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 6 月 26 日星期四 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-6-26） | | | | | 铁矿：本期全球铁矿石发运总量、到港量环比回升，整体处于近年来同期 高位水平，铁矿发运有冲量预期。产业端淡季，五大钢材产量增，铁水止 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 跌回升，铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，说明当前 240 的高铁水仍旧能驱动港 | | | 铁矿石 | | 震荡 | 口去库，关注后续铁水持续回落状况。铁矿石整体呈现供应逐步回升、需 | | | | | | 求相对低位、港口库存步入累库通道的局面，铁矿供需过剩格局不变。 唐 | | | | | | 山传出钢铁企业烧结机减产 30%的消息，对原料端需求有下移空间，若 | | | | | | 铁水破 240 万吨，铁矿后期将承压下跌。策略上，前期空单继续持有。 | | | | | | 煤焦：近日主产区环保检查升级，内蒙乌海及临汾地区停产煤矿及洗煤厂 | | | | | | 较多，供应端有所收缩。焦炭方面，随着焦煤价格下跌，焦企入炉 ...

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 6 月 26 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 在美国和卡塔尔的斡旋下以色列和伊朗勉强同意停火协议，同时美联储主席 鲍威尔国会作证时表示经济就业韧性使得美联储有条件继续按兵不动以观察关税 政策对通胀的真实影响，隔夜伦敦黄金一度回调至 3295 美元/盎司；但消息称美 国空袭并未摧毁伊朗的核心核能力而仅可能将其进程延后数月，且鲍威尔表示若 通胀确实受控则美联储愿意更早而不是更晚降息，因此伦敦黄金小幅反弹至 3300 美元/盎司上方。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局重组进入乱纪元模式，黄金的 ...

市场不确定性重新显现 黄金期货上涨 金十数据6月25日讯，随着持续的市场不确定性开始再次出现，黄金期货价格上涨。由于以色列和伊朗 的停火打击了避险需求，黄金在本周早些时候遭遇大幅抛售后已经企稳。XS.com的Samer Hasn在报告 中表示，尽管如此，避险需求仍受到地缘政治和贸易相关风险的支撑。尽管各方对停火持乐观态度，但 局势再次升级的可能性仍然存在，因为根据一份泄露的美国情报报告，美国的打击似乎只将伊朗的核计 划推迟了几个月。市场的注意力也可能转向仍未解决的贸易紧张局势。 ...

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/6/25 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本公 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the simultaneous decline of gold and the US dollar due to a decrease in safe-haven demand, influenced by geopolitical events and market reactions to statements from President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [1][5][12] - On Tuesday, the international spot gold price opened at $3368.34, reaching a high of $3370.56 and a low of $3295.29, closing at $3323.74, down $44.45 or 1.32% [1] - The US dollar index opened at 98.38 points, with a high of 98.40 and a low of 97.69, closing at 97.96, down 420 points or 0.43% [3] Group 2 - The Wellxin precious metals index opened at 6747.72 points, with a high of 6776.92 and a low of 6604.47, closing at 6703.65, down 46.85 points or 0.69% [4] - The article notes that the market's reaction to the Israel-Iran conflict and subsequent ceasefire has led to a significant drop in gold prices, suggesting an overreaction in market sentiment [5][12] - Trump's comments on oil prices and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have had a notable impact on market dynamics, with Powell's statements influencing expectations around interest rate changes [12][19] Group 3 - The article discusses the unusual market behavior where both the dollar and commodity prices, including oil, are declining simultaneously, which is typically rare and indicates a potential economic downturn [5][17] - The relationship between the dollar and commodity markets is analyzed, suggesting that if the dollar enters a macro depreciation trend, commodity prices may not follow the same downward trajectory [16][19] - The article concludes that the current economic environment does not show clear signs of a financial crisis, and the macro bullish structure of commodity markets remains intact despite recent fluctuations [19]

以下是关于黄金的全面信息整合，涵盖价格动态、市场趋势、投资策略及行业动态等关键维度： 一、实时金价与市场波动 避险情绪降温引发暴跌 特朗普宣布以色列与伊朗全面停火后，现货黄金日内跌幅达1.45%，跌破3320美元/盎司。原油同步暴跌 超7%，WTI原油报68.51美元/桶。市场风险偏好转向股市，A股三大指数普涨。 技术面关键支撑位 3340美元：若日线收于该点位下方，可能触发空头趋势，目标看至3320-3300区间。 3320美元：周线级别多空分水岭，失守后或加速下跌。 鲍威尔讲话影响：今晚22:00美联储主席证词若偏鹰派，可能进一步打压金价。 二、投资趋势与替代选择 铂金成为"新宠" 年内涨幅超36%，跑赢黄金。 供需失衡推动：2025年预计供应缺口30吨，投资需求激增140%。 零售市场：中国首次超越北美成全球最大铂金投资市场。 "新三金"理财配置 年轻人倾向分散投资：黄金ETF、债券基金、货币基金（余额宝）组合，以平衡风险。 白银接力上涨 黄金/白银比值达历史高位，白银技术面呈"杯柄结构"，或开启补涨行情。 三、产业与政策动态 九部门推动黄金产业升级 目标：2027年黄金资源量增5%-10%，深加工技术 ...

EBC黄金ETF持仓报告解读 10:33 黄金ETF持仓报告 公布机构：美国SPDR Gold Trust 当前总持仓 955.68 吨黄金 黄金ETF总持合变化 更新时间:2025-06-2 960 950 940 930 920 910 2025-04-29 2025-05-13 2025-06-02 2025-06-18 .Il 5G 【EBC平台风险提示及免责条款】：本材料仅供一般参考使用，无意作为（也不应被视为）值得信赖的财务、投资或其他建议。 截至6月24日，全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust持仓量为955.68吨，较前一个交易日减少1.72吨。6月24日，现货黄金全天显著杀跌，盘中一度跌破3300 美元/盎司关口，最低触及3295.35美元/盎司，为6月9日以来的最低水平，随后有所回升，收于3323美元/盎司，下跌46.02美元或1.37%。 基本面消息，中东地缘政紧张情绪缓和，避险需求急剧降温，促使现货黄金大幅回落。据新华社、央视新闻等媒体报道，以色列和伊朗同意停火。伊朗方面 也指出，以色列与伊朗停火进入实施阶段。 尽管在欧市盘中，以色列和伊朗互相指责对方违反停火协议，特朗普 ...

Recent Gold Price Trends - Geopolitical conflicts have driven gold price volatility, with a spike to $3427 per ounce following Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 13, marking a weekly increase of over 3.5% [1] - A ceasefire announcement by Trump on June 24 led to a 2% drop in gold price to $3295, the lowest in two weeks, with domestic gold jewelry prices decreasing by 8-15 yuan per gram [1] Technical Analysis - The key resistance level is at $3400, which is crucial for sustaining any upward momentum; support is identified at $3320, with potential declines to the $3250-$3290 range if breached [2] - A "head and shoulders" pattern is observed on the daily chart, with a critical neckline at $3380; failure to hold this level may trigger further declines [3] Core Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The Middle East situation remains a short-term driver; a breakdown of the ceasefire could lead to a rapid rebound in gold prices, especially if risks in the Strait of Hormuz resurface, potentially increasing both oil and gold prices [4] - Central banks are expected to continue gold purchases, with reserves projected to account for 20% of global holdings by 2024, as emerging markets shift 60% of their gold purchases to replace U.S. Treasuries, providing structural support for long-term gold prices [4] Monetary Policy and Dollar Dynamics - Divergence in expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts exists; Powell emphasized the need for confirmed inflation decline before any cuts, which may pressure gold prices; however, Citi predicts that a rate cut in September could alleviate some pressure on gold [5] - A strong dollar typically suppresses gold prices, with the recent dollar index rebounding to 98.9, putting additional pressure on gold [6] Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - Institutional views are mixed, with Goldman Sachs and Bank of America bullish on gold reaching $4000 by 2026, while Citi is bearish, projecting a drop to $2300, reflecting market uncertainty [7] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings have increased, indicating some funds are positioning themselves to buy on dips [8] Investment Strategies and Market Recommendations - Short-term strategy suggests a bearish outlook, with recommendations to short in the $3340-$3350 range, targeting $3320, and looking for a break below to $3290 [9] - Caution is advised for bottom-fishing below $3300, with a need to monitor Middle East developments and Federal Reserve statements for potential stabilization before considering long positions [9] Long-term Allocation Value - Gold is viewed as a strategic asset for inflation hedging and restructuring of the monetary credit system, with suggested allocation between 5%-15% [10] - Preferred investment vehicles include gold ETFs for their low entry barriers and strong liquidity, and physical gold for long-term holding, though storage costs and price spreads should be considered [11] Summary - The current gold market is characterized by "event-driven fluctuations," influenced by ceasefire agreements and hawkish Federal Reserve signals, while central bank purchases and long-term safe-haven demand provide ongoing support; investors are advised to operate flexibly based on technical levels (3320/3380) and news developments, with long-term holders encouraged to build positions gradually [13]

国际金价昨日周二（6月24日）受伊朗和以色列停火削弱了市场对黄金避险需求影响，当日刷新了近两周新低至3295，日K线最终以实际跌幅约45个点收于 3323附近。 隔夜例行公布的美6月消费者信心指数意外下降5.4点至93.0，创下近期新低；表明消费者对就业机会和未来六个月经济前景的担忧加剧。过去两周以色列与 伊朗之间的军事对抗一度推高了黄金的避险买盘，但随着停火协议的达成，市场迅速转向风险偏好模式，全球股市应声上涨，美元作为传统避险货币同样回 落下跌，目前已跌破98关口至97.8附近，同时也直接导致了黄金价格的下滑。同时鲍威尔昨晚22:00点明确表示，不会为7月或任何具体会议的降息"打开大 门"，以避免在通胀趋势不明朗时贸然行动。这种谨慎态度反映了美联储对经济前景的审慎判断，他指出，当前劳动力市场依然强劲，经济保持稳健，但关 税争端的不确定性使得美联储需要更多时间观察。 隔夜金价失守3300整数关口，主要是在鲍威尔发表讲话后，市场迅速调整了对美联储降息时点的押注，但关税争端的不确定性重回视野，为市场增添了复杂 性，带动金价企稳反弹暂时守住此区域支撑。目前金价回落至30日均线3330附近，短周期均线死叉向下，KD ...

Core Insights - The gold market experienced a rare "double kill" scenario in June 2025, with a monthly volatility of 35%, the highest in nearly a decade, driven by geopolitical tensions and Federal Reserve policy expectations [1] - Investors who timed the market effectively achieved over 15% returns, while those who chased trends faced losses exceeding 20% [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Geopolitical tensions significantly influenced short-term price fluctuations, with gold prices surging nearly $30 to $3398 per ounce on June 23 due to increased demand for safe-haven assets, followed by a drop to $3342.59 on June 24 after a ceasefire agreement [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's policy expectations fluctuated, with a hawkish stance initially suppressing gold prices, but dovish signals later provided support, raising the probability of a rate cut in September to 80% [2] Group 2: Market Patterns - The volatility premium indicated that for every 1-level increase in geopolitical risk, gold price daily fluctuations expanded by 40% [4] - The market's sensitivity to Federal Reserve communications led to significant price swings, with gold prices experiencing ±1.5% changes within two hours of announcements [5] Group 3: Long-term Fundamentals - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term support for gold remains strong, with global central banks purchasing over 1000 tons of gold annually for three consecutive years, and China's central bank expected to increase holdings by 200 tons in 2024 [7] - The wedding season in China (June to August) is projected to boost gold jewelry consumption by 8% year-on-year, contributing to 45% of global physical demand [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The gold market is anticipated to remain complex in July, with $3350 acting as a critical support level; a breach could lead to a decline towards $3250-$3300, while stability above $3400 may trigger buying pressure [8] - Key upcoming events include the Federal Reserve Chairman's congressional testimony and the release of the U.S. CPI data, which could influence gold prices significantly [9]