Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in October, but Chairman Powell's comments indicate a hawkish stance, suggesting that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed. This reflects a growing internal consensus within the Fed to pause rate cuts [1]. Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - The Fed has the potential for further easing, but the pace of rate cuts may slow down, and overly optimistic expectations should be avoided [1]. - The current round of rate cuts may have a weaker stimulative effect compared to previous cycles, primarily due to a diminished refinancing effect [1]. - The Fed plans to end quantitative tightening (QT) in December, which is viewed as a technical decision rather than a significant policy shift [1]. Group 2: Future Rate Cut Projections - Under normal circumstances, the Fed has room for three more rate cuts, which would correspond to long-term interest rates of 3.8-4.0% [1]. - The current difference between actual rates and natural rates is 0.8%, and three additional cuts of 25 basis points could align financing costs with investment returns, leading to a nominal neutral rate of 3.5% [1]. - Assuming a term premium of 30-50 basis points, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield would be projected at 3.8-4.0% [1]. Group 3: Influencing Factors - The short-term path for rate cuts will depend on factors such as the resolution of government shutdowns and the release of new employment data, as well as inflation trends [1]. - The independence of the new Federal Reserve Chair and the Fed's autonomy will be significant variables affecting the rate cut trajectory in 2026, potentially increasing policy uncertainty [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October aligns with market expectations, but Chairman Powell's hawkish comments suggest that a December rate cut is not guaranteed, indicating a growing internal division within the Fed [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions and Statements - The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points in October, with two dissenting votes: one for a 50 basis point cut and another for no change, highlighting increasing internal disagreements [1] - Powell emphasized that a further reduction in December is not a foregone conclusion, indicating significant internal divisions among Fed officials regarding future actions [2] - The Fed's monetary policy statement showed little change from September, noting a slowdown in job growth and a rise in unemployment, while inflation remains elevated [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Implications - The labor market is slowing but not deteriorating rapidly, with indicators showing a gradual decline in job growth, suggesting that further rate cuts depend on worsening employment conditions [2] - Inflation remains significantly above the Fed's target, with the PCE inflation rate estimated at 2.8% in September, reflecting persistent upward pressure on prices [3] Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - The Fed has room for further policy easing, but the pace of rate cuts may slow, transitioning from "cutting at every meeting" to "quarterly cuts" as the policy rate approaches neutral levels [3] - The expected impact of rate cuts on the economy may be limited due to a weakened refinancing effect, as many homeowners locked in low rates previously, reducing the incentive for refinancing [4] Group 4: Quantitative Tightening and Asset Management - The Fed plans to end quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1, stopping the reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings while continuing to reinvest maturing securities [4][5] - This decision is seen as a technical adjustment to address liquidity concerns and manage the average duration of the Fed's asset portfolio, shifting from long-term MBS to short-term T-bills [5]

美联储如市场所料继续降息行动，降息25基点，同时决定放弃量化紧缩（QT），一个月后结束缩减资产负债表（缩表）的计划。 美联储主席鲍威尔在会后的记者会上表示，通胀短期仍有上行压力，就业面临下行风险，目前面临的局面颇具挑战，委员会对12月是否再次降息仍存较大 分歧，降息并非板上钉钉。 FOMC某些成员认为，是时候暂停一下了。鲍威尔说，较高的关税正推动某些商品类别的价格上涨，从而导致整体通胀上升。 美联储祭出组合拳：继续降息25基点+12月结束缩表 美东时间10月29日周三，美联储在货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布，将联邦基金利率的目标区间从4.00%至4.25%下调至3.75%至4.00%，降幅25个基点。在 上次会议今年内首次降息后，本次是联储一年来首次连续第二次FOMC会议降息。 本次降息决定完全在投资者意料之中。到本周二收盘，芝商所（CME）工具显示，期货市场预计联储本周降息25个基点的概率达99.9%，12月下次会议继续降 息25基点的概率为91%。 这显示，市场已几乎完全消化今年内合计降息三次的预期。9月上次FOMC会后公布的利率展望显示，多数联储决策者预计的今年降息次数由6月公布的两次提 高到三次。 美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has ended its balance sheet reduction after three and a half years, replacing maturing MBS holdings with short-term Treasury securities starting in December [4][10]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second consecutive 25 basis point cut [5][6]. - The decision to cut rates was widely anticipated by the market, with a 99.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut prior to the announcement [6]. - There remains a division within the FOMC regarding the rate cuts, with two dissenting votes; one member advocated for a 50 basis point cut while another preferred to maintain the current rate [11][12]. Group 2: Balance Sheet Reduction - The Fed's balance sheet reduction, which began on June 1, 2022, will conclude on December 1, 2023, with a shift to reinvesting MBS principal payments into short-term Treasury securities [9][10]. - The Fed had previously reduced its monthly balance sheet reduction pace, indicating a cautious approach to liquidity in the market [7][9]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Recent labor market indicators align with trends observed before the government shutdown, with an acknowledgment of increased risks to employment in recent months [13][14]. - The statement reflects a shift in language regarding economic activity, indicating a slowdown in growth and a slight increase in unemployment, while inflation remains elevated [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's current monetary policies, including quantitative easing (QE) and quantitative tightening (QT), are criticized for failing to effectively inject liquidity into the economy and instead altering the quality of collateral in the financial system [2][3][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policies - The Federal Reserve should cease both QE and QT, returning to a more traditional approach to monetary policy as seen post-World War II [3][5]. - There is concern that the Fed is incentivizing banks not to lend by paying interest on excess reserves, which could be better utilized in the economy [3][4]. - The reverse repo program is viewed as a confusing mechanism that does not effectively control short-term interest rates [4][5]. Group 2: Market Signals and Trends - Credit markets are currently stable, with no immediate concerns about price-to-earnings (PE) implosion [6]. - The yield curve is flattening, indicating a healthy demand for U.S. Treasuries [6]. - Foreign investment in U.S. assets is at a high, countering fears about the dollar's decline [7]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - There is a belief that productivity and a resurgence in the U.S. economy will strengthen the dollar [8]. - Current market conditions are not comparable to the irrational exuberance of the 1990s, as earnings are moving in tandem with share prices [9]. - The potential for capital expenditures (capex) to be 100% tax-deductible until January 2031 is seen as a catalyst for market growth [10]. Group 4: Leadership and Legacy - The current leadership of the Federal Reserve, particularly Jerome Powell, is viewed as disappointing, raising questions about the constitutionality of the Fed's actions [11].

Core Points - The Federal Reserve is ending the drawdown of its balance sheet due to tightening money market liquidity conditions and declining bank reserve levels [1][4] - Starting December 1, the Fed will roll over maturing Treasury securities instead of allowing up to $5 billion to mature each month without replacement, while continuing to allow up to $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities to expire monthly but reinvesting proceeds into Treasury bills [2][3] - The Fed's decision to halt balance sheet runoff was anticipated due to rising borrowing costs in short-term lending markets [5][6] Group 1 - The Federal Open Market Committee reduced the fed funds rate by a quarter percentage point, bringing it to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% [3] - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed has reached a level of reserves consistent with ample conditions in money markets [4] - Recent developments suggest that the Fed has sufficient liquidity in the financial system to maintain control over interest rate targets while allowing for normal volatility in money market rates [7] Group 2 - The end of the balance sheet runoff occurred sooner than many market participants expected, with a prior survey indicating a first-quarter stopping date for quantitative tightening (QT) [8] - The Fed is cautious about removing too much liquidity from the system to avoid losing control of the fed funds rate, as experienced during the previous QT six years ago [9]

Core Insights - A key indicator measuring secured overnight borrowing costs has surged, exceeding the Bank of England's deposit rate by 25 basis points, marking the widest premium since March 2020, excluding quarter-end data [1] - This volatility reflects cash scarcity due to the Bank of England's quantitative tightening (QT) efforts, reversing years of bond purchases and gradually ending a program that provided cheap loans to banks during the pandemic [1] - The Bank of England aims to eliminate the excess liquidity from years of quantitative easing (QE) and shift to providing cash through regular repurchase operations, increasing the risk of market turbulence [1]

来源：滚动播报 据媒体分析报道，市场普遍预期美联储将降息25个基点，将政策利率调整至3.75-4.00%。同时预期央行 将宣布结束量化紧缩（QT）。本次会议不会公布季度经济预期报告，因此焦点将主要放在鲍威尔的新 闻发布会上，预计美联储主席鲍威尔将再次将降息定性为风险管理举措，并在缺乏关键经济数据的情况 下，不透露过多信息以维持市场预期稳定。当前市场预期美联储10月降息板上钉钉，12月降息的概率也 接近100%，2026年将累计降息117个基点，高于美联储预计的75个基点。 ...

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming announcement [1][2] - Market participants are looking for guidance on future rate cuts, particularly for the December meeting, but expectations may be overly optimistic [2][18] Balance Sheet Management - The Fed has been reducing its balance sheet for nearly two and a half years, shrinking it by over $2 trillion [4][5] - There is a concern that if the Fed continues to shrink its balance sheet without adding liquidity, it could lead to a rapid increase in money market rates, forcing market participants to deleverage [5][7] Economic Indicators - Current economic indicators show a resilient consumer despite a slowdown in hiring, with wage growth rising [13][15] - Corporate profitability remains high, and equities are near all-time highs, yet there are mixed signals in the labor market [15][18] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is characterized as "low hire, low fire," indicating stability for those in valuable positions, while challenges exist for less specialized roles [17][18] - The Fed is likely to focus more on labor market conditions than inflation, despite inflation being above target [19][20] Market Reactions - The rates market may react to a Fed that is less dovish than currently priced, potentially leading to a rise in front-end rates after the decision [20] - This cautious approach from the Fed could create headwinds for equities and other risk assets [20]

Group 1 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, with market focus on Chairman Powell's forward guidance [2] - In Norway, private consumption has significantly increased this year, supported by high real wage growth, low unemployment, and declining mortgage rates, although a slight month-on-month decrease of about 0.3% in September is noted [2] - In Sweden, GDP indicators for September and Q3 are cautiously interpreted, with expectations of a 0.7% quarter-on-quarter growth and 1.6% year-on-year growth, indicating a potential recovery after a prolonged stagnation [2] Group 2 - In the Eurozone, the European Central Bank's (ECB) bank lending survey indicates a slight tightening of corporate loan standards in Q3, driven by increased risk perception, while household loan demand remains strong [5] - In the US, consumer confidence improved slightly in October, with the index rising to 94.6, although overall confidence continues to decline amid ongoing uncertainty [5] - China's detailed outline for the 2026-2030 Five-Year Plan emphasizes the critical role of consumption in driving economic growth, contrasting with the previously milder language of the initial draft [5] Group 3 - The Swedish central bank's business survey results were weaker than expected, indicating a deterioration in the current economic situation and outlook, with significant declines in corporate pricing plans [6] - The overall stock market showed a slight increase, primarily driven by the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks, which rose by approximately 1.3%, while the broader market sentiment remains weak [7] - The euro/dollar exchange rate continues to fluctuate between 1.16 and 1.17, with a slight increase to 1.1630, as the market awaits the FOMC meeting [8]