Report Information - Report Date: November 20, 2025 - Report Name: Precious Metals Daily Report - Research Institution: Huatai Futures Research Institute Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously Bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously Bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On Hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's October policy meeting minutes revealed significant internal differences regarding the December rate cut, which may create short-term negative sentiment for both gold and silver prices. As a result, both metals are expected to trade in a range-bound pattern. The Au2512 contract for gold is projected to fluctuate between 910 yuan/gram and 950 yuan/gram, while the Ag2602 contract for silver is expected to move between 11,700 yuan/kilogram and 12,300 yuan/kilogram [8]. Market Analysis Fed Meeting Minutes and Employment Data - The Fed's October policy meeting minutes showed severe differences among policymakers during the rate cut decision last month, and the pro-rate cut camp did not have an absolute numerical advantage. There was almost unanimous agreement to halt the quantitative tightening (QT) of balance sheet reduction. Some members were concerned about the risk of a disorderly stock market decline. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the October employment report and will incorporate the non-farm payroll data into the November report, which is scheduled for December 16 [1]. Futures Market - On November 19, 2025, the Shanghai Gold (Au) main contract opened at 922.54 yuan/gram and closed at 937.00 yuan/gram, a 2.01% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the overnight session, it opened at 941.98 yuan/gram and closed at 935.42 yuan/gram, a 0.17% decline from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver (Ag) main contract opened at 11,760.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 12,148.00 yuan/kilogram, a 3.84% change from the previous day's close. The trading volume was 1,360,286 lots, and the open interest was 340,206 lots. In the overnight session, it opened at 7,633 yuan/kilogram and closed at 7,644 yuan/kilogram, a 0.27% decline from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yields and Spreads - On November 19, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.12%, a -0.01% change from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.54%, a 0.01% change from the previous day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On November 19, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 4,586 lots, and short positions decreased by 1,549 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts the previous day was 486,709 lots, a 9.18% change from the previous day. In the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 13,646 lots, and short positions increased by 11,943 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Silver contracts the previous day was 1,943,912 lots, a 10.55% change from the previous day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1,041.43 tons from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF holdings remained unchanged at 15,218 tons [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage - On November 19, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -11.67 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,350.29 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE was approximately 77.13, a -1.76% change from the previous day, while the ratio in the overseas market was 80.34, a 0.46% change from the previous day [6]. Fundamental Data - On November 19, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 62,688 kilograms, a 4.93% change from the previous day. The trading volume of silver was 785,682 kilograms, a 26.08% change from the previous day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 45,840 kilograms [7].

期 货 研 究 2025 年 11 月 20 日 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：继续承压 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 21570 | 105 | -310 | ୧୫୧ | 965 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 21530 | - | । | ー | । | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | | | | | | | | | | 2815 | 25 | -72 | ୧୫ | 209 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 202981 | -56481 | -20817 | 11244 | 82996 | | | 电解铝 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 347833 | -8714 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current economic fundamentals data is weak, and the central bank will continue to adhere to a supportive monetary policy stance. It is expected that market liquidity will remain reasonably abundant, which has a certain supporting effect on Treasury bond futures prices. The position transfer and replacement has started recently, and it is recommended to make a position transfer plan [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices generally declined. For example, the T2512 contract fell by 0.07%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract changed. For instance, the open interest of the T2512 contract decreased by 22,730, while that of the T2603 contract increased by 12,402 [2] - **Spreads**: The inter - delivery spreads of each contract also changed. For example, the inter - delivery spread of TS2512 was 0.050, down from the previous value of 0.060 [2] - **IRR**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each Treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: On the previous trading day, short - term market interest rates generally declined. SHIBOR 7 - day interest rate dropped by 3.1bp, DR007 interest rate dropped by 0.52bp, and GC007 interest rate dropped by 2.7bp [2] - **China's Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: On the previous trading day, the yields of key - term Treasury bonds showed mixed trends. The 10Y Treasury bond yield rose by 0.5bp to 1.82%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 30.71bp [2] - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: On the previous trading day, the 10Y Treasury bond yields of the US, Germany, and Japan all increased. The US 10Y Treasury bond yield rose by 1bp, the German 10Y Treasury bond yield rose by 2bp, and the Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yield rose by 2bp [2] 3.3 Macro News and Strategies - **Central Bank Operations**: On November 19, the central bank carried out 3105 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.40%. After deducting the 1955 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due on the same day, the net investment was 1150 billion yuan [3] - **Treasury Cash Management**: The Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China will conduct the bidding for the 11th and 12th installments of the 2025 central treasury cash management commercial bank time deposits on November 24, with operation volumes of 120 billion yuan (1 - month term) and 80 billion yuan (21 - day term) respectively [3] - **International and Domestic Economic Situations**: The US government ended the "shutdown", and the Fed's decision - makers had serious differences when cutting interest rates last month. They were cautious about future interest rate cuts, and US Treasury bond yields rebounded. In China, the year - on - year growth rates of social financing stock, M2, and M1 in October declined. Industrial production, consumption growth rates slowed down, and investment decline widened, mainly dragged down by the real estate sector [3] - **Interest Rate Trends**: On November 19, most money market interest rates declined. US Treasury bond yields rose across the board [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicate significant disagreement among policymakers regarding the potential for a rate cut in December, with more officials believing that no further cuts are necessary this year than those who support a cut [1][2][3] - A consensus exists among nearly all participants to end the balance sheet reduction (QT) by December 1, 2023, after three and a half years of implementation, with plans to reinvest proceeds from mortgage-backed securities into short-term U.S. Treasury bonds [6][7] - Concerns have been raised about financial stability, particularly regarding high asset valuations in the stock market and the risk of a disorderly decline in stock prices, especially if the market reassesses the outlook for artificial intelligence technologies [5][7] Group 2 - Many officials believe that further rate cuts could exacerbate ongoing inflation risks, particularly in light of high inflation data and a slowly cooling labor market [4] - The minutes reflect a strong divergence of opinions within the FOMC regarding the policy direction for the upcoming December meeting, marking one of the largest disagreements in recent years [7] - There is a notable concern among some officials about the potential impact of tariffs on overall inflation, suggesting that the committee should consider easing policy to address employment risks [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes reveal significant divisions among policymakers regarding the potential for a rate cut in December, with no clear majority supporting the move, while there is unanimous agreement to halt the balance sheet reduction [1][2][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Outlook - Most participants at the meeting indicated that a shift towards a more neutral policy stance might warrant a further rate cut, although several expressed skepticism about the appropriateness of a 25 basis point cut in December [2][4]. - Many members believe that maintaining rates unchanged for the remainder of the year may be suitable based on their economic outlook [2][4]. - The minutes highlight a hawkish sentiment within the Fed, as many participants noted that further rate cuts could exacerbate inflation risks, especially given the current high inflation data and a cooling labor market [4][8]. Group 2: Financial Stability Concerns - Some Fed officials expressed concerns about high asset valuations in financial markets, particularly the risk of a disorderly decline in stock prices if the market reassesses the prospects of AI technologies [5][8]. - There are also worries related to corporate high debt levels, indicating that the Fed is closely monitoring financial stability alongside inflation and employment [5][8]. Group 3: Balance Sheet Reduction - Almost all participants agreed that ending the balance sheet reduction on December 1 is appropriate, concluding a three-and-a-half-year process that began on June 1, 2022 [6][7]. - After halting the balance sheet reduction, the Fed plans to reinvest the principal from agency mortgage-backed securities into short-term U.S. Treasury securities, which is expected to enhance flexibility in managing reserve requirements [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor, Michelle Bowman, expressed a desire to conclude quantitative tightening (QT) by October, emphasizing the importance of reasonable regulatory measures to maintain a smaller balance sheet and strongly supports revising banking regulations [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve aims to end quantitative tightening (QT) sooner than expected, with a target of October [1] - Implementing appropriate regulatory measures is seen as essential for sustaining a smaller balance sheet [1] - There is strong support for revising banking regulations to enhance the overall stability of the financial system [1]

Core Insights - BitMine Immersion Technologies has added 54,156 ETH, valued at approximately $170 million, to its balance sheet, bringing its total ETH holdings to 3,559,879 ETH worth over $11.1 billion, making it the largest publicly traded Ethereum treasury globally [1][2] - Despite Ethereum's price dropping more than 11% in the last week and being 35% off its all-time high from August, BitMine continues to accumulate ETH [3][2] - BitMine's Chairman, Tom Lee, predicts an Ethereum "supercycle," suggesting potential long-term price increases, with a possibility of a 100x rise similar to Bitcoin's past performance [4][5] Company Holdings - BitMine holds 3,559,879 ETH valued at over $11.1 billion, 192 Bitcoin worth about $18 million, and $607 million in cash [2] - The firm is positioned as the second largest crypto treasury overall, following Michael Saylor's Strategy with a $61 billion Bitcoin stash [2] Market Predictions - Predictions regarding Ethereum's price movement are nearly evenly split, with a 51% likelihood of falling to $2,500 rather than rising to $4,000 [4] - The market is still recovering from a significant liquidation event in October, which saw over $19 billion in positions wiped out in a single day [5] Market Dynamics - The current market conditions suggest that a market maker may have been severely impacted during the recent crash, leading to reduced liquidity functions and dampened prices, akin to quantitative tightening [6] - Tom Lee remains bullish on year-end predictions, suggesting Bitcoin could reach $150,000-$200,000 and Ethereum could rise to $7,000 by the end of the year [6]

Core Insights - The New York Federal Reserve held an unscheduled meeting with major Wall Street banks to address concerns over tightening conditions in the U.S. money market [1] - The meeting focused on feedback regarding the usage of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF), which officials view as a crucial tool for managing short-term borrowing costs [1][3] - Key indicators of short-term borrowing costs have surged above the Federal Reserve's target rate, raising market liquidity concerns [1][2] Group 1: Market Conditions - The tri-party repo rate has recently increased, at one point exceeding the Federal Reserve's reserve rate by nearly 0.1 percentage points, although it remains below the peak levels seen at the end of October [2] - The share of repo transactions conducted at rates above the reserve balance rate has reached its highest level since late 2018 and early 2019 [2] - Analysts warn that the market may face increased pressure in the coming weeks due to reduced excess cash in the banking system following three years of quantitative tightening [1][2] Group 2: Standing Repo Facility (SRF) - The SRF is viewed as a key "pressure release valve" to help control short-term interest rates within the target range [3] - Despite some institutions utilizing the SRF, the scale of its use has not been sufficient to stabilize repo rates completely [3] - Concerns over "stigma" associated with using the SRF deter many institutions from utilizing the tool, as they fear it may signal financial distress to the market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. money market is signaling liquidity concerns again, with the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) rising and the gap between SOFR and the Interest on Reserves (IOR) widening to 8 basis points, indicating a shift from ample to scarce reserves in the banking system [2][3] Group 1: Liquidity Signals - The three-party repo rate has also risen above the IOR by 0.8 basis points, suggesting a tightening liquidity environment [2] - As of early November, the Federal Reserve's reserve balance was approximately $3.1 trillion, significantly lower than the pandemic peak of $4.3 trillion [3] - Historical patterns indicate that when the Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR) approaches or exceeds the IOR, the Fed typically slows or halts balance sheet reduction [3] Group 2: Market Reactions - Market participants are already pricing in expectations for balance sheet expansion, with predictions that the Fed may announce Reserve Management Purchases as early as December, injecting $750 billion to $1 trillion monthly into the system [5] - The Treasury's plan to increase the General Account (TGA) balance from $75 billion to $850 billion by year-end will likely withdraw equivalent reserves from the system [5] - Regulatory pressures, particularly the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) year-end checks, are causing large banks to reduce their balance sheets, further tightening liquidity [5] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Stance - Federal Reserve officials have shown a subtle shift in tone, acknowledging that reserves are nearing the lower end of the ample range, with a growing likelihood of policy adjustments if necessary [6] - Futures data indicates a 70% probability of the Fed initiating technical balance sheet expansion in December, up from 30% a month prior [6] - The transition from surplus to scarcity in reserves is expected to be bumpier than anticipated due to regulatory, fiscal, and year-end demand pressures [6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. short-term financing market is showing signs of liquidity tightening again, raising doubts about the effectiveness of recent Federal Reserve interventions. The rise in key interest rate indicators suggests speculation that the Fed may be forced to expand its balance sheet again, interpreted by some as a new round of quantitative easing (QE) [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) has recently surged, widening the spread with the Fed's interest on reserves (IOR) to 8 basis points, indicating a return to a tense financing environment [1][4]. - Following the Fed's decision to end quantitative tightening (QT) at the end of October, the banking system's reserves may be sliding towards "scarcity" levels, increasing pressure for further Fed action [3][9]. - The rebound in SOFR and tri-party repo rates above the IOR suggests that bank reserves have moved from "ample" to "scarce" levels [4][10]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Position - Fed officials have indicated that reserves are no longer "ample," hinting that "reserve management purchases" may be the next step in normalizing the Fed's balance sheet [6][11]. - The timing for the Fed to expand its balance sheet will depend on the relationship between the effective federal funds rate (EFFR) and the IOR, with expectations that the EFFR-IOR spread may narrow by year-end [8][9]. - The continued use of the standing repo facility (SRF) is seen as a clear signal of scarce reserves, with recent data showing a resurgence in daily usage of the SRF tool [10][11]. Group 3: Current Reserve Levels - U.S. bank reserve levels have dropped to their lowest point in five years, indicating a challenging transition from "ample" to "scarce" reserves, with market signals suggesting potential volatility in this process [11][12].