碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 12 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2605 合约跌 1.26%至 93700 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价跌 350 元/ 吨至 94000 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价跌 350 元/吨至 91550 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒）跌 100 元/吨至 82480 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 770 吨至 10422 吨。 2. 供应端，周度产量环比增加 74 吨至 21939 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加 120 吨至 13484 吨，锂云母 产量环比增加 55 吨至 3076 吨，盐湖提锂环比减少 145 吨至 3090 吨，回收料提锂环比增加 44 吨至 2289 吨；据 SMM 数据，12 月预计供应环比增加 3%至 9.8 万吨。需求端，周度三元材料产量环比 减少 564 吨至 18697 吨，库存环比减少 519 吨至 18842 吨；磷酸铁锂产量环比减少 233 吨至 95480 吨，库存环比减少 660 吨至 103681 吨；据 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the chemical industry is experiencing a price surge, particularly in phosphate rock, which is benefiting related stocks and ETFs [1][2] - The China Securities Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme Index (000813) has seen a strong increase of 1.03%, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Yangnong Chemical (600486) up 5.34% and Luxi Chemical (000830) up 3.13% [1] - Phosphate rock prices remain high, with the average market price for 30% grade phosphate rock at 1016 RMB/ton, 28% grade at 945 RMB/ton, and 25% grade at 758 RMB/ton as of December 2 [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities reports an expected increase in lithium battery production in December, with a month-on-month growth of 2.3% to 143.3 GWh, indicating a positive trend in the lithium battery sector [2] - The demand for lithium battery materials is strong, with supply constraints leading to price increases in various components such as batteries, lithium hexafluorophosphate, and phosphoric iron lithium [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme Index account for 45.41% of the index, with major companies including Wanhua Chemical (600309) and Yilong Co. (000792) [3]

东吴证券认为，周三，A股主要指数普跌调整。目前，A股市场运行在方向选择区间，上证指数在3830 —3930点区间内震荡整理，前期出现大阴线下杀后修复，短期多空力量暂时未能出现明显失衡，关注后 续的震荡持续时间及方向选择。 财信证券认为，周三，在外围市场向好的情况下，A股市场继续调整，反映出当前资金风险偏好仍较 低，导致大盘短期反弹动能逐步减弱。目前市场主线方向暂不明朗，前期强势的锂电产业链迎来调整， 同时近期在AI端侧、AI应用方向利好较多的背景下，以AI产业链为主的科技线走势也低于预期，未能 引领大盘持续走强，使得市场信心受到一定影响。短期内，随着大盘反弹力度下降，指数层面或将迎来 震荡，耐心等待放量长阳或者其他明确的回暖信号出现。中期来看，随着机构资金逐步开始布局2026年 方向、美联储降息靴子落地、"AI投资泡沫"担忧阶段性消退，A股市场或将迎来新一轮做多窗口期。 中原证券认为，周三，A股市场冲高遇阻、小幅震荡整理。盘中煤炭、有色金属、风电设备以及中药等 行业表现较好；互联网服务、能源金属、文化传媒以及软件开发等行业表现较弱。经过前期的快速波动 之后，上周A股市场逐步企稳回升。中长期支撑本轮A股上涨的基 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company's stock price is influenced by multiple complex factors including macroeconomic environment, industry policies, overall market sentiment, and sector rotation [1] Group 1: Company Operations - The company emphasizes the importance of market value management and states that all production and operational activities are normal [1] - The company obtained a mining license for the Hunan Jijiao Mountain lithium mine in October, marking significant progress for its lithium mining project [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The company benefits from favorable developments in downstream industries such as new energy vehicles and energy storage, maintaining high market attention on the lithium battery industry chain and lithium resources [1] - The company asserts that there is no irrational speculation surrounding its stock [1]

Group 1 - The China Battery Theme Index decreased by 0.92% as of December 3, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, led by Better Energy up 2.26% and Penghui Energy up 1.60% [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting on November 28 with key industry players, emphasizing the need to implement decisions to address "involution" competition and promote high-quality development in the battery industry [1] - Huatai Securities forecasts a month-on-month increase in lithium battery production in December, with a 2.3% rise to 143.3 GWh, marking the first month-on-month increase since 2022, driven by strong demand and a significant slowdown in supply [1] Group 2 - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Battery Theme Index accounted for 55.63%, including major companies like Sungrow Power, CATL, and EVE Energy [2] - The Battery ETF by Harvest (562880) closely tracks the China Battery Theme Index, providing a convenient tool for investors to gain exposure to the battery sector [2] - Investors without stock accounts can also access battery industry investment opportunities through the Battery ETF linked fund (016567) [3]

消息面上，华泰证券研报称，预计12月锂电排产环比增加，景气度持续向好，多环节出现涨价。该行指 出，需求向好叠加供给显著放缓，储能电池及多数锂电材料供需已偏紧，电池、六氟磷酸锂（简称 6F）、湿法隔膜、磷酸铁锂、负极逐步迎来涨价拐点，看好锂电产业链材料各环节盈利改善，实现量 利齐升。 智通财经获悉，龙蟠科技(02465)涨超5%，截至发稿，涨4.8%，报14.84港元，成交额2.38亿港元。 本文源自：智通财经网 此前，龙蟠科技公告，公司对楚能新能源的总销售金额，预计从此前超50亿元调整为超450亿元。今年5 月9日，龙蟠科技方面与楚能新能源方面签署15万吨磷酸铁锂正极材料销售协议，协议有效期自2025年4 月30日起至2030年4月30日止。如今，双方签署了补充协议，合同有效期延长至2030年底，标的产品磷 酸铁锂正极材料销售量增加至130万吨。 ...

消息面上，华泰证券研报称，预计12月锂电排产环比增加，景气度持续向好，多环节出现涨价。该行指 出，需求向好叠加供给显著放缓，储能电池及多数锂电材料供需已偏紧，电池、六氟磷酸锂(简称6F)、 湿法隔膜、磷酸铁锂、负极逐步迎来涨价拐点，看好锂电产业链材料各环节盈利改善，实现量利齐升。 龙蟠科技（603906）(02465)涨超5%，截至发稿，涨4.8%，报14.84港元，成交额2.38亿港元。 此前，龙蟠科技公告，公司对楚能新能源的总销售金额，预计从此前超50亿元调整为超450亿元。今年5 月9日，龙蟠科技方面与楚能新能源方面签署15万吨磷酸铁锂正极材料销售协议，协议有效期自2025年4 月30日起至2030年4月30日止。如今，双方签署了补充协议，合同有效期延长至2030年底，标的产品磷 酸铁锂正极材料销售量增加至130万吨。 ...

此前，龙蟠科技公告，公司对楚能新能源的总销售金额，预计从此前超50亿元调整为超450亿元。今年5 月9日，龙蟠科技方面与楚能新能源方面签署15万吨磷酸铁锂正极材料销售协议，协议有效期自2025年4 月30日起至2030年4月30日止。如今，双方签署了补充协议，合同有效期延长至2030年底，标的产品磷 酸铁锂正极材料销售量增加至130万吨。 智通财经APP获悉，龙蟠科技(02465)涨超5%，截至发稿，涨4.8%，报14.84港元，成交额2.38亿港元。 消息面上，华泰证券研报称，预计12月锂电排产环比增加，景气度持续向好，多环节出现涨价。该行指 出，需求向好叠加供给显著放缓，储能电池及多数锂电材料供需已偏紧，电池、六氟磷酸锂（简称 6F）、湿法隔膜、磷酸铁锂、负极逐步迎来涨价拐点，看好锂电产业链材料各环节盈利改善，实现量 利齐升。 ...

Industry Overview - The lithium battery industry is currently in a peak season, with significant price increases observed in materials such as tetravalent cobalt, lithium cobalt oxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate, driving up the prices of ternary materials [2] - The market outlook for November indicates continued demand, with some materials experiencing upward price trends and supply tightness, suggesting a robust performance in battery production despite the seasonal downturn [2] Company Developments - Ganfeng Lithium's new project for an annual production of 80,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate is progressing well, with the main construction expected to be completed by 2026 [3][4] - Hunan Youneng reported full production and sales due to strong demand from downstream power and energy storage batteries, with sales of phosphate-based positive materials reaching 784,900 tons from January to September, a year-on-year increase of 64.86% [5] - Yongtai Technology maintains high capacity utilization rates across its lithium battery materials, with significant production capacities for various products including electrolyte and lithium hexafluorophosphate [6] Market Trends - In October, China's e-cigarette exports reached approximately $1.098 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 23.64% [7] - Lithium carbonate prices have shown volatility, with recent market fluctuations leading to increased trading volumes and a faster pace of inventory depletion [8] - The price of lithium carbonate as of November 27 is reported at 93,000 to 95,000 yuan per ton [9] Material Pricing - Ternary material prices as of November 27 are as follows: single crystal 5 series at 155,000 to 160,000 yuan per ton, and 8 series 811 type at 164,000 to 168,000 yuan per ton [12] - Phosphate lithium prices have seen slight increases, with expectations of a 2-3% production rise in December [12] - The latest prices for negative materials range from 50,000 to 65,000 yuan per ton for high-end natural graphite products [16] Battery Production and Sales - Battery production is expected to remain stable in December, with leading battery manufacturers anticipating slight increases in output, particularly supported by heavy-duty and energy storage orders [19] - The retail sales of new energy vehicles from January to November reached 10.998 million units, a year-on-year increase of 20% [20] Storage Market - The domestic energy storage market continues to show strong demand, with significant growth observed in Eastern Europe, particularly in Bulgaria, which has seen an 8-9 times increase compared to last year [21] - The tender market has been robust, with November's total tender scale reaching 34.45 GWh, expected to rise to 45-50 GWh by the end of the month [22]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3875.26, up 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.25% to 12875.19 [1] - The ChiNext Index decreased by 0.44% to 3031.30, and the STAR 50 Index dropped by 0.33% to 1310.70 [1] - The overall market saw a mixed performance with blue-chip stocks leading, while innovative small and medium enterprises lagged behind [8] Economic Insights - The People's Bank of China conducted a 356.4 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, injecting liquidity into the market [17] - From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 1.9% year-on-year, totaling 59,502.9 billion yuan [19] - The manufacturing sector saw a profit increase of 7.7%, while the mining sector experienced a significant decline of 27.8% [19] Industry Dynamics - Haier's central air conditioning interconnected factory was selected as one of the first batch of leading intelligent factories by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, achieving a 32% increase in production efficiency and a 15% reduction in energy costs [27] - From January to October 2025, China's motorcycle exports reached 15.0028 million units, a year-on-year increase of 27.63%, with an export value of 9.353 billion USD, up 32.26% [29] - Vitasoy International reported a 6% decline in revenue for the first half of the 2026 fiscal year, primarily due to a weak domestic market [31] Dairy Product Imports - In the first ten months of 2025, China imported 2.1824 million tons of dairy products, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, with an import value of 10.425 billion USD, up 14.8% [33] - The import of dry dairy products increased by 6.7%, while liquid milk imports decreased by 7.7% [34] - Notably, whey powder imports grew by 12.5%, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [35] Local Economic Developments - Hunan Gold's subsidiary obtained a mining license for tungsten, magnetite, and silver, with an annual production capacity of 990,000 tons [37] - The Hunan Embodied Intelligence Innovation Center was inaugurated, supporting the construction of a global R&D center city [39]