2月5日半导体设备ETF（159516）低开后震荡回升，收盘微跌0.17%。通信ETF（515880）则全天在水 下震荡，收跌2.47%。 综合而言，从25Q4A股的业绩预告和美股财报看，科技产业趋势良好。但近期内外部环境复杂，无论是 A股还是美股，均面临资金面、情绪面多重压力，后续存在超跌可能，可以观察低位布局机会。具体选 择上，一是海外算力条线的光模块持续高景气，谷歌、Meta等公司capex大超市场预期，可持续关注通 信ETF（515880）。二是收益于存储扩产的半导体设备赛道，可关注半导体设备ETF（159516）。 风险提示： 投资人应当充分了解基金定期定额投资和零存整取等储蓄方式的区别。定期定额投资是引导投资人进行 长期投资、平均投资成本的一种简单易行的投资方式。但是定期定额投资并不能规避基金投资所固有的 风险，不能保证投资人获得收益，也不是替代储蓄的等效理财方式。 无论是股票ETF/LOF基金，都是属于较高预期风险和预期收益的证券投资基金品种，其预期收益及预期 风险水平高于混合型基金、债券型基金和货币市场基金。 来源：wind 下跌原因主要为内外环境复杂，资金情绪萎靡。从美股看，近期美股软件板块 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market has experienced significant valuation increases since the second half of 2024, leading to accelerated industry rotation and increased volatility, making a balanced allocation strategy a favorable choice [1] Group 1: Fund Overview - The Invesco Great Wall Balanced Growth Equity Fund (Fund Code: 026462) is currently being issued, managed by the emerging fund manager Wang Kaiduan, who is known for his balanced investment style [1] - Wang Kaiduan has a diverse background, having covered various sectors such as steel, machinery, and media internet, which provides a solid foundation for balanced investment in a rapidly changing market [2] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Wang Kaiduan employs a dynamic investment approach based on the industry lifecycle, categorizing industries into six stages: emergence, acceleration, collapse, clearing, maturity, and recovery, to identify investment opportunities [2] - The investment strategy emphasizes industry diversification and includes a "blacklist" mechanism to avoid companies with governance issues or unclear business models, focusing on firms that can create sustained value across market cycles [2] Group 3: Fund Performance - The Invesco Great Wall Chenglong Leading One-Year Holding Mixed Fund, managed by Wang Kaiduan, demonstrated a balanced allocation with its top ten holdings spread across more than seven different industries, achieving a net value return of 29.87% in 2025, surpassing the benchmark by 11.67 percentage points [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - Wang Kaiduan is optimistic about the manufacturing sector's overseas expansion and inflation-linked assets, driven by global economic growth primarily led by AI investments, which are expected to extend beyond TMT-related hardware to traditional resource sectors [4] - Specific areas of interest include midstream sectors such as power generation and energy, as well as traditional capital goods in emerging markets, where Chinese companies are rapidly gaining market share [4] - The Invesco Great Wall Balanced Growth Equity Fund features a floating management fee structure that aligns the interests of fund managers and investors, enhancing the overall investment experience [4]

长江商报消息●长江商报记者 徐佳 借资产并购进军PCB领域，民爆光电（301362.SZ）成为市场追捧焦点。 日前，民爆光电公布对外收购计划，拟通过发行股份的方式收购厦门厦芝精密科技有限公司（以下简 称"厦芝精密"）49%股权，并募集配套资金。同时，上市公司将以现金收购厦芝精密51%股权，该现金 交易与发行股份购买资产不互为前提。 两笔交易完成之后，民爆光电将合计持有厦芝精密100%股权，厦芝精密将成为上市公司全资子公司， 民爆光电的主营业务将延伸至PCB钻针领域。 在当前AI产业爆发增长的背景下实施并购，民爆光电将加速战略转型，分享AI产业及PCB钻针行业发展 带来的成长红利。 数据显示，2025年，厦芝精密实现营业收入1.35亿元，净利润1127.37万元。截至2025年末，厦芝精密资 产总额1.53亿元，所有者权益3965.18万元。 上述现金收购中，标的资产的转让对价预计不超过2.5亿元。以此粗略计算，厦芝精密100%股权的对价 或将达4.9亿元。 二级市场上，发布收购方案后，民爆光电已连收三个涨停板。截至2月4日收盘，报77.74元/股，较停牌 前一个交易日收盘价累计已上涨72.8%。 "两步走"全 ...

Group 1 - The overall market valuation has significantly increased since the second half of 2024, leading to accelerated industry rotation and increased volatility, making balanced allocation strategies a favorable choice [1][8] - The Invesco Great Wall Balanced Growth Equity Fund (Fund Code: 026462) is currently being issued, managed by the emerging fund manager Wang Kaiduan, who is skilled in assessing industry cycles to construct a relatively balanced portfolio [1][8] - Wang Kaiduan has developed a dynamic investment approach based on the industry lifecycle, categorizing industries into six stages: embryonic, acceleration, collapse, clearing, maturity, and recovery, which helps in identifying investment opportunities [3][10] Group 2 - The Invesco Great Wall Balanced Growth Equity Fund has demonstrated a clear balanced investment strategy, with its top ten holdings distributed across more than seven different industries, achieving a net value return of 29.87% in 2025, surpassing the benchmark by 11.67 percentage points [4][11] - The A-share market has experienced significant valuation recovery since the second half of 2024, with major indices and overall market valuation levels showing substantial increases compared to September 2024 [5][12] - Wang Kaiduan is optimistic about the manufacturing sector's overseas expansion and inflation-related assets, particularly in the context of AI-driven investments that extend beyond TMT hardware to traditional resource sectors [5][12] Group 3 - The Invesco Great Wall Balanced Growth Equity Fund employs a floating management fee mechanism, linking management fees to excess returns, which aligns the interests of fund managers and investors, enhancing the investor experience [6][13]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses macroeconomic trends and asset allocation outlook for 2026, focusing on both domestic and overseas markets. Core Points and Arguments 1. Market Review - Global markets showed an overall increase in January, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets [6][15] - Major commodities experienced significant price fluctuations, particularly metals, which saw a sharp correction at the end of the month [6][15] - Domestic asset performance was mixed, with equities showing high volatility, interest rates declining, and commodities performing strongly [10][15] 2. Domestic Macro Insights - Economic indicators suggest a stable start to the year, with PPI declines expected to narrow due to various factors including rising metal prices [20][22] - Credit demand in Q1 is anticipated to remain stable, with a focus on the performance of new home sales post-Spring Festival [23][25] - The central bank has implemented structural interest rate cuts and indicated potential for further easing, with a focus on maintaining liquidity [26][28] - Fiscal policies are becoming more proactive, with various support measures for small and medium enterprises and consumer loans [29][33] 3. Overseas Macro Insights - The U.S. economy may have reached a bottom, as indicated by recent employment data showing a rebound in non-farm payrolls [39][41] - Tariff policies under the Trump administration are shifting towards more aggressive measures, with potential implications for international trade [42][45] - The nomination of Walsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair raises questions about future monetary policy direction, particularly regarding interest rate adjustments [49][51] 4. Asset Allocation Outlook - A-shares are viewed as having reasonable valuation levels, with a slight preference for growth stocks in the upcoming quarter due to seasonal effects [56][66] - Hong Kong stocks are expected to perform well in the medium term, supported by domestic economic stabilization and potential foreign capital inflows [67][69] - Interest rates are likely to remain in a range-bound state, with limited upside potential [70][72] - U.S. Treasury yields are expected to stay elevated due to ongoing fiscal pressures, despite recent rate cuts by the Fed [73][75] - The AI sector is identified as a key driver for U.S. stock performance, with implications for technology investments [76][78] 5. Commodity Insights - Oil prices are expected to experience increased volatility due to geopolitical factors, although overall supply may remain excessive [81][83] - Copper prices are projected to remain strong amid tight supply conditions, while gold is anticipated to see short-term fluctuations [84][89] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The conference highlighted the importance of monitoring credit demand and fiscal policy developments as indicators of economic health [23][29] - The potential impact of U.S. tariff policies on global trade dynamics and market sentiment was emphasized [42][45] - The discussion on the structural changes in the U.S. economy and their implications for monetary policy and asset allocation strategies was noted as critical for investors [51][52]

每周 一 景 ：甘孜藏族自治州四川省贡嘎雪山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【基金 】 国泰海通证券2月基金投资策略 基金投资策略 股混基金： 从基金投资的角度来看，在成长主线下，价值和成长风格中均具备结构性投资机会的市场格局或将延续，因此我们建议后续基金配置在整体维持 均衡风格的前提下，适度偏向成长，并且关注基金经理的选股和风控能力，重视主投科技领域基金，兼顾周期、金融等资产。 指数主题基金： 我们从基本面景气度、超预期水平、量价水平和资金流强度四个维度出发，构建行业轮动模型，2月最新高景气度行业分别为基础化工、建筑 材料、环保、石油石化、通信和钢铁，结合ETF产品的流动性和相关性，我们构建的ETF行业轮动投资组合。 债券基金： 从基金投资角度来看，建议关注久期灵活的利率债和重配高流动性信用债的产品。此外，随着权益市场回暖，我们认为固收+基金同样具备一定配 置价值，建议持续关注。 QDII和商品型基金： 全球地缘政治局势的不确定性上升以及各国央行持续购金有利于支撑长期金价中枢，从长期投资和避险投资的角度来看，我们认为可适 当配置黄金ETF，但趋势配置者短期需要谨慎。美国经济韧性较强，内生性通胀粘性逐渐减弱，投 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market performance at the beginning of 2026 is breaking traditional historical patterns, with significant divergence between stocks and bonds observed in the Chinese capital market [1]. Market Environment - The A-share market is expected to experience a "spring rally" after the Spring Festival, with a shift from a defensive large-cap style to a growth-oriented small-cap style [1][5]. - The bond market has shown a "V-shaped" recovery after initial pressure, with a structural interest rate cut of 0.25% by the central bank in January, leading to a stabilization in market sentiment [3][12]. Historical Patterns - Historical data from 2015 to 2025 indicates a clear seasonal pattern in the A-share market, with a 63.64% probability of the CSI 300 index rising in the 30 days before the Spring Festival, while the probability for the CSI 1000 index is only 27.27% [5][6]. - Post-Spring Festival, the CSI 300 index has a 72.73% probability of rising, with an average increase of 3.15%, while the CSI 1000 index shows an 81.82% probability and an average increase of 8.71% [5][6]. Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market typically shows strength in the 30 days before the Spring Festival due to increased liquidity and strong demand from institutional investors, with a historical average decline of 5.73 basis points in the 1-year bond yield [7][11]. - After the Spring Festival, the bond market may face upward pressure on yields due to changes in policy expectations and increased supply, with an average increase of 1.03 basis points in the 10-year bond yield [7][11]. 2026 Outlook - The foundation for the "spring rally" is expected to be stronger this year due to favorable policy expectations, global liquidity conditions, and a trend of residents allocating more assets to equity markets [12]. - Consumer demand is anticipated to be released earlier than in previous years due to an extended holiday, with expectations for increased spending on travel and consumption [12]. - The bond market is likely to experience a range-bound trading pattern, with reduced necessity for further rate cuts following the January reduction [12]. Potential Changes in Patterns - The traditional "strong bonds, weak stocks" model before the Spring Festival may be disrupted this year, with both markets potentially showing support and increased competition [13]. - The typical post-Spring Festival shift to small-cap growth may be weakened, as large-cap growth could perform well alongside high-dividend assets, leading to a mixed market style rather than a clear transition [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - Lianyun Technology (Hangzhou) Co., Ltd. reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for the year 2025, driven by the recovery of the storage industry and the rapid development of the AI sector, leading to increased demand for storage products [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2025, the company achieved total operating revenue of 1.331 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.42% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 142 million yuan, up 20.36% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 101 million yuan, showing a substantial increase of 130.29% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The storage industry is expected to maintain high prosperity in 2026, with high-value products like HBM and enterprise-grade solid-state drives (SSDs) performing particularly well [1] - Industry experts believe that this high prosperity will continue at least until 2027 [1] Group 3: Product Development and R&D - Lianyun Technology is a platform-based chip design company providing data storage controller chips and AIoT signal processing and transmission chips [1] - The company has completed a comprehensive layout in the SSD controller chip field, including SATA, PCIE3.0, PCIE4.0, and PCIE5.0, launching over 10 SSD controller chips that have achieved mass production [2] - In 2025, the company's R&D expenses were approximately 506 million yuan, up from 425 million yuan in the previous year, with R&D investment consistently accounting for 36% to 38% of operating revenue, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [2]

Market Overview - A-shares continued a slow bull market in January 2026, with 26 out of 31 industries showing positive growth[7] - The top-performing sectors included non-ferrous metals, media, oil and petrochemicals, construction materials, and basic chemicals[7] Investment Strategy - Fund allocation should maintain a balanced style while slightly favoring growth, particularly in technology and cyclical sectors[4] - Recommended funds include Southern Quality Selected, E Fund Environmental Protection Theme, and Guotai Consumer Preferred among others[4] Fund Performance - In January 2026, growth-style funds achieved an average return of 9.07%, outperforming value and balanced funds which returned 6.08% and 5.60% respectively[49] - TMT and midstream manufacturing sector funds led the performance, with average returns of 9.16% and 8.29%[50] New Fund Issuance - A total of 123 new funds were launched in January 2026, raising a total of 120.21 billion yuan, the highest for the same period in four years[56] - Equity funds accounted for 67.6% of the new issuance, reflecting strong investor interest in this category[59] Bond Market Insights - The bond market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, particularly in ultra-long bonds, which may lead to increased volatility[16] - Investors are advised to focus on medium to short-term bonds and avoid ultra-long maturities due to potential pricing pressures[18]

Core Viewpoint - Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plan to initiate cutting-edge NAND flash production line conversion investments in Q2 2026 to address the surge in NAND market demand driven by the AI industry [1][2]. Group 1: Samsung Electronics - Samsung has commenced mass production of 280-layer V9 NAND flash in September 2024, but current capacity is limited to approximately 15,000 wafers per month [1]. - The company initially deployed the early production line in Pyeongtaek due to insufficient market demand [1]. - Starting in Q2 2026, Samsung will focus on converting the Xi'an X2 production line, which currently produces 6th to 7th generation NAND, while the conversion of the neighboring X1 line to 8th generation NAND is nearly complete [1]. Group 2: SK Hynix - SK Hynix plans to advance the conversion of the 321-layer 9th generation NAND production line at its Cheongju M15 factory in Q2 2026, aiming to increase its current monthly capacity from 20,000 wafers to approximately 30,000 wafers [2]. - The conversion investment is expected to reach a monthly capacity of 40,000 to 50,000 wafers for the new NAND products, with a ramp-up phase anticipated in 2027 [2]. Group 3: Industry Trends - Both companies have previously focused their equipment investments on the DRAM sector, but are now accelerating capacity adjustments in response to the tightening supply in the NAND flash market [4].