Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Science and Technology Innovation Board (科创板) index has broken through the consolidation range since November, suggesting a potential short-term upward trend, with medium to long-term benefits expected from the semiconductor cycle, accelerated domestic substitution, and policy support [1] - The robotics sector is leading the gains, with companies like Weichuang New Materials (上纬新材) approaching the daily limit increase, following the establishment of a standardization committee for humanoid robots and embodied intelligence by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [1] - As of December 29, 2025, the Science and Technology Innovation Board index (000680) saw significant increases in stocks such as Weichuang New Materials (up 19.79%), Ruisheng Technology (瑞松科技, up 19.71%), and Buke Co., Ltd. (步科股份, up 18.37%) [1] Group 2 - Institutions project that the growth drivers for the Science and Technology Innovation Board in the coming year will stem from three main aspects: robust earnings growth, continuous innovation investment, and significant policy and industry trends supporting new productive forces [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Science and Technology Innovation Board index as of November 28, 2025, include Cambricon (寒武纪), Haiguang Information (海光信息), and SMIC (中芯国际), collectively accounting for 24.43% of the index [2]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index achieved an eight-day winning streak, with a weekly increase of 1.88%, indicating a "steady rise" trend [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index performed better, with weekly gains of 3.55% and 3.90% respectively [2] - The Wande Commercial Aerospace Index surged by 8.36%, marking its largest weekly gain in the second half of the year [2] - The overall market sentiment showed improvement, with increased trading volumes, indicating a recovery in risk appetite [4] Equity Market - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets significantly increased to 1.95 trillion yuan, surpassing 2 trillion yuan on Friday [4] - Growth style stocks outperformed value style stocks, suggesting a shift in market preference [4] - The market is showing signs of breaking out of the consolidation phase, with a need to closely monitor changes in trading volume [4] Bond Market - The bond market showed a recovery, with both interest rate bonds and credit bonds strengthening, supported by a balanced funding environment [2][29] - The central bank's measures have maintained liquidity, alleviating initial concerns about market adjustments [5] - A cautious approach is recommended for long-term bonds due to supply pressures, with a focus on short to medium-term bond strategies [5] Commodity Market - COMEX gold prices continued to rise, reaching new highs, driven by a weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions [2] - The South China Commodity Index increased by 4.00%, with significant gains in precious metals and non-ferrous metals [33] - The outlook for gold remains positive in the medium to long term, supported by factors such as central bank purchases and limited supply capacity [6] Overseas Market - The U.S. stock market showed resilience, with the S&P 500 reaching new highs, supported by strong economic data [2] - The U.S. GDP for Q3 was reported at an annualized rate of 4.3%, exceeding expectations, which has led to a slight reduction in interest rate cut expectations [2] - Investors are encouraged to consider diversified overseas investments through QDII funds, balancing asset classes and regional exposures [7]

摘要 人民币汇率短期内或难破 7，尽管中美资产回报率差距缩小，但央行可 能在关键点位干预，以避免过度波动，当前中国基本面尚不支持过高人 民币汇率。 季节性结汇对人民币汇率有显著影响，年初和年底较为明显，助推短期 升值，但不会改变长期基本方向，仅加剧短期波动。 "中国版本套息交易"影响中国版块和结构表现，企业根据国内外资产回 报决策，资金回流对外资占款产生影响，并推动 M1 增速上升，央行需 关注和调控。 央行可能在关键点位干预，防止人民币过度波动，如 7.2、7.3 等点位， 避免自我强化效应，并密切监控市场，适时干预以确保稳定。 2025 年上半年人民币汇率预计难破 7，因中国尚未准备好迎接强势人民 币，且套息交易导致波动较大，央行对汇率把控严格。 长期来看，人民币国际化可能导致黄金价格大幅下跌，因强势国际货币 会削弱黄金作为避险资产的需求，但短期内不会发生显著变化。 2026 年，建议做空美债和做多铜。长期来看，美债利率最终将会上升， 而铜价在经济复苏和需求增加的背景下仍有上涨空间，铜金比是重要指 标。 Q&A 近期人民币汇率升值的原因是什么？这种升值趋势是否会持续？ 近期人民币汇率升值的主要原因包括季节 ...

时间的河漫过2025年的堤岸，留下错综的印痕。 过去的三百六十多个昼夜足够精彩，世界在宏大叙事中加速旋转——我们见证了AI的浪潮正以前所未有的力 量驱动现实，见证了科技赛道的不断突围，见证了中国资产在变局中涌动出的澎湃动能，也见证了美元信用版 图浮现的裂痕，以及全球资本在失衡与再平衡之间寻找新的坐标系的过程。 然而，当这些史诗级的主题交汇于年末的盘面，有太多人在起伏不定的行情里感受到了失重般的眩晕，未来仿 佛隐于雾中，脉络未清。人们迫切地想要知道，何处将诞生下一只"易中天"般的明星股票，何处将崛起下一个 从寂静中爆发的产业风口，何处将凝聚下一场在市场分歧中悄然形成的共识，以及，何处才能寻得那一套能够 穿透迷雾、真正解释这个时代的投资叙事。 迷雾之中，2025年12月26日，一场主题为"新格局、新动能、新机遇——科技引领下的全球多元配 置"的"DeepAlpha年度对话"在北京举行。这场由华夏基金主办的策略会，汇集了知名经济学家刘煜辉、华夏基 金旗下宏观和策略分析师祝青、海外研究小组组长 郭琨研 ，以及顾鑫峰、施知序、孙蒙、华龙等擅长不同风 格的基金经理。 从全球宏观变局到微观产业脉络，从科技创新浪潮到多元资产 ...

CONTENTS 01 国泰君安期货研究所· 海 外 研 究 联系人 杨藤 F03151619 国泰君安期货·君研海外 海外宏观及大类资产周度报告 戴璐 Z0021475 刘雨萱 Z0020476 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 02 03 大类资产周度表现及市场高频数据 周度重点宏观逻辑追踪及资产观点 • 固定收益 – 海外固收周度表现 • 汇率市场 – 主要汇率周度表现 • 汇率市场 – 中国货币政策框架演进 • 汇率市场 – 人民币汇率月频指标 • 汇率市场 – 人民币汇率高频指标 • 大宗商品 – 主要大宗商品周度表现 宏观数据全息图及基本面高频数据 • 海外权益 – 波动率与风险情绪指标 2 • 周度海外宏观要点：宏观清淡平稳搭台，贵金 属、有色爆发 二为交割制度 • FICC-人民币：人民币破七，贸易账为基石，利 差和结汇配合 • FICC-人民币：政策态度较为明确，短期升值空 间或有限 • 周度 ...

铝土矿方面，截至2024年底，全球已探明铝土矿储量约290亿吨，静态储采比约为64.44年。而中国铝土矿储量为6.8亿吨， 2024年产量9300万吨，储采比约为7.31年。 铅矿方面，全球已探明铅储量9600万吨，全球铅矿储采比为22.33年。中国铅资源储量2200万吨，占全球的22.92%，但作为 铅消费大国，中国铅矿储采比低于15年。 图表2：2024年基本金属中国储量及储采比（万吨，年） 锌矿情况与铅矿类似，全球已探明锌储量23000万吨，全球锌矿资源储采比约为19.17年。中国锌矿储量在全球占比较大， 储量4600万吨，占比20%，但储采比约为11.5年。 2025年全球铜矿供应偏紧格局依旧，将进一步传导至冶炼端制约产能释放，精炼铜供应量增速放缓，但在新能源、AI等下 游行业的拉动下，需求量增加，供需矛盾扩大叠加关税冲突，铜价向上弹性较大。 图表1：2024年基本金属全球储量及储采比（万吨，年） 铝供需增长空间有限，俄铝恢复对美出口或拉大国内供需缺口。基本面上，供给侧全球增长空间有限，中国电解铝产能已 接近天花板，海外新建产能2025年预期投产较少，需求侧白色家电、新能源汽车、光伏装机增速放缓，叠加 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a phase adjustment in technology iteration due to the imbalance of supply and demand in the global memory market and soaring prices. Samsung and SK Hynix have postponed their plans to cease DDR4 memory production from the end of 2025 to 2026 [1]. Group 1: Strategy Adjustment - Samsung and SK Hynix's decision to delay DDR4 production is not a sudden move; they had previously signaled to customers about gradually reducing DDR4 capacity starting in early 2024, with a complete stop planned between late 2025 and early 2026 [3]. - This strategy aligns with the semiconductor industry's logic of "technology iteration driving capacity upgrades," especially as major chip manufacturers like AMD and Intel are phasing out support for DDR4 [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The explosive growth of the AI industry has significantly increased the demand for HBM, with storage needs for AI servers exceeding traditional servers by more than three times. This shift has led manufacturers to allocate more capacity to HBM, severely constraining DDR4 production [4]. - The transition of Chinese DRAM suppliers to DDR5, driven by government subsidies, will result in a complete halt of DDR4 production by 2025, further exacerbating the global supply shortage [4]. Group 3: Price Movements - Since the beginning of 2025, the price of a 16GB DDR4 module has surged from 180-200 yuan to around 800 yuan by December, marking a cumulative increase of over 200%. There have been instances of older products surpassing the prices of newer DDR5, with some specifications showing price differences of up to 100% [4]. - Current inventory levels for DDR memory are critically low, with only 9 weeks of supply for PC and mobile devices and 11 weeks for server DDR memory, contributing to further price increases. It is projected that DDR contract prices will rise by 35% in Q4 2025 and continue to increase by 30% in Q1 2026 [4]. Group 4: Manufacturer Responses - In response to market conditions, SK Hynix has officially notified customers of the extension of DDR4 production until 2026 and plans to increase DDR4 capacity at its Wuxi factory to meet rising orders. Samsung will maintain stable DDR4 supply while focusing on advanced DRAM products [5]. - Unlike Samsung and SK Hynix, Micron is sticking to its original plan, with its DDR4 and LPDDR4 products entering the end-of-life phase and expected to cease shipments in the next 2-3 months [5]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - In the short term, the maintenance of DDR4 production by Samsung and SK Hynix is expected to alleviate supply tightness and somewhat curb price surges, but prices are likely to remain high due to significant supply gaps [6]. - Long-term, this adjustment does not alter the industry's trend towards advanced technologies like DDR5 and HBM; rather, it provides a buffer period for market transition. The continued focus on DDR4 by leading manufacturers may compress market space for domestic storage companies while allowing them time to mature their DDR5 technology and capacity [6].

点击注册小程序 历史来看，牛市见顶是多重因素共同作用的结果 从历史市场运行规律来看，牛市见顶绝非单一因素偶然触发的结果，而是多重因素长期积累、相互交织并 形成合力后的必然趋势。具体而言，导致牛市见顶的核心因素可归纳为三大类，分别是政策与外部环境类 因素、基本面类因素以及市场交易类因素。其中，政策收紧或外部风险冲击是重要的前置影响变量，基本 面回落是趋势反转的核心验证变量，而交易信号则是见顶的最终确认变量。 牛市见顶的三类预警信号 政策边际收紧与外部风险是牛市见顶的核心预警信号之一。具体来看，2005-2007年牛市见顶的预警信号 包括内部政策收紧（多次提准、上调印花税）与外部次贷危机的共振冲击；2013-2015年牛市见顶的预警 信号包括杠杆资金调控政策收紧（严查场外配资、规范融资融券）；2016-2018年牛市见顶的预警信号包 括金融去杠杆政策（资管新规征求意见稿、规范投融资行为）与外部贸易摩擦、全球流动性收紧；2019- 2021 年牛市见顶预警信号包括行业针对性政策（房地产调控、平台经济反垄断、校外培训监管）与美联储 加速缩表等。 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所 ...

最近逛家电城，导购员悄悄说"现在买空调、冰箱得趁早，不然过阵子可能又要涨价"；小区里收废品的大叔也乐呵，"废铜一斤涨到30多，比去年贵了快 一半"。这些日常里的小变化，背后都藏着同一个信号——铜价疯了！12月23日那天，伦敦金属交易所（LME）的铜价直接冲破12000美元/吨，盘中最高 飙到12159.5美元，创下历史新高，今年以来累计涨了超37%，眼看就要创下2010年以来的年度最大涨幅 。国内市场也跟着涨，沪铜主力期货收盘价都到 了9.62万元/吨，一天就涨了1% 。 铜价一飞冲天，最受关注的当属行业龙头江西铜业。作为国内铜产量最大的企业，江铜早就靠"套期保值"对冲价格波动风险，可现在铜价单边暴涨，之前 的套保操作反而成了焦点，不少人都在问："铜价越涨，江铜的套保会不会亏得越多？""这么高的铜价，套保风险到底有多大？" 一、先搞懂：铜价为啥能涨到12000美元？不是单一原因在发力 铜价能突破历史关口，可不是运气好，而是供应、需求、宏观政策凑到一起的"共振效应"。 从供应端看，全球铜矿真的不够用了。2025年智利、印尼、刚果（金）的几大主力矿山接连出问题，矿难、泥石流、矿震不断，导致全球铜矿产量同比下 滑了 ...

2025 年 12 月 26 日 策略研究 A 股牛市见顶三重预警框架 ——解密牛市系列之五 要点 历史来看，牛市见顶是多重因素共同作用的结果 从历史市场运行规律来看，牛市见顶绝非单一因素偶然触发的结果，而是多重因素 长期积累、相互交织并形成合力后的必然趋势。具体而言，导致牛市见顶的核心因 素可归纳为三大类，分别是政策与外部环境类因素、基本面类因素以及市场交易类 因素。其中，政策收紧或外部风险冲击是重要的前置影响变量，基本面回落是趋势 反转的核心验证变量，而交易信号则是见顶的最终确认变量。 牛市见顶的三类预警信号 政策边际收紧与外部风险是牛市见顶的核心预警信号之一。具体来看，2005-2007 年牛市见顶的预警信号包括内部政策收紧（多次提准、上调印花税）与外部次贷危 机的共振冲击；2013-2015 年牛市见顶的预警信号包括杠杆资金调控政策收紧（严 查场外配资、规范融资融券）；2016-2018 年牛市见顶的预警信号包括金融去杠杆 政策（资管新规征求意见稿、规范投融资行为）与外部贸易摩擦、全球流动性收紧； 2019-2021 年牛市见顶预警信号包括行业针对性政策（房地产调控、平台经济反 垄断、校外培训监管）与 ...