Group 1: CPI Analysis - In January 2026, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The impact of the Spring Festival on CPI was significant, with food prices contributing a decrease of approximately 0.11 percentage points[1] - Core CPI growth narrowed by 0.4 percentage points to 0.8% compared to the previous month[1] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 1.4% year-on-year in January 2026, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[1] - PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth, with an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The rise in international non-ferrous metal prices contributed 0.34 percentage points to the month-on-month PPI increase[1]

比系大学国民经济研究中心 春节错位叠加供给充足，CPI 增速小幅下降 CPI、PPI 点评报告 宏观经济研究课题组 | | 2026 年 | 北大国民经 | Wind 市 | | 上年同 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1月值 | 济研究中心 | 场预测 | 上期值 | 期值 | | | | 预测值 | 均值 | | | | CPI 同比 (%) | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.44 | 0.8 | 0.5 | | PPI 同比 (%) | -1.4 | -1.0 | -1.45 | -1.9 | -2.3 | 要点 ● 春节错位叠加科技助农,CPI 增速小幅下行 课题组成员: 蔡含篇 陈丽娜 董希勇 李文博 联系人: 蔡含篇 联系方式: 010-62767607 gmjjyj@pku.edu.cn A0101-20260211 北京大学国民经济研究中心 扫描二维码或发邮件订阅 第一时间阅读本中心报告 蔡含篇 学术指导: 刘伟 组长:苏剑 ● 供需矛盾或有缓解,PPI降幅进一步收窄 ● 资源争夺叠加供需不匹配问题缓解,2026 年价格增 速或有上行 系大 ...

1.国家统计局公布数据显示，1月份，我国CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.2%，核心CPI同比上涨0.8%；PPI环比上涨0.4%，连续 4个月上涨，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点，同比则下降1.4%，降幅比上月收窄0.5个百分点。此次发布的CPI和PPI数据以2025 年为基期，为本次基期轮换后的首次数据发布。国家统计局指出，本次基期轮换对CPI和PPI各月同比指数的影响平均约为0.06 和0.08个百分点，总体较小。 早盘速递 2026/2/12 热点资讯 2.美国1月季调后非农就业人口增加13万人，远超市场预期的7万人，前值小幅下修至4.8万人。失业率录得4.3%，创2025年8月 以来新低；时薪环比增长0.4%，超预期。交易员将美联储降息押注从6月推迟至7月。 3.中国汽车工业协会发布数据显示，1月份，我国汽车产销分别完成245万辆和234.6万辆，同比分别增长0.01%、下降3.2%。其 中，新能源汽车产销分别完成104.1万辆和94.5万辆，同比分别增长2.5%和0.1%。新能源汽车出口保持高速增长，出口30.2万 辆，同比增长1倍。 4.美国总统特朗普在白宫与到访的以色列总理内塔尼亚胡举行闭门会 ...

Group 1: CPI Data Overview - In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.8% year-on-year [1][2] - The CPI year-on-year growth rate has decreased due to the high base effect from the previous year's Spring Festival and a significant drop in energy prices, which fell by 5.0% [2][3] - The core CPI's month-on-month increase of 0.3% is the highest in the past six months, indicating a steady recovery in consumer demand [4] Group 2: PPI Data Overview - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month in January, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase, with the growth rate expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [7] - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 1.4%, but the decline has narrowed by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [9] - Key industries such as non-ferrous metal mining and smelting saw significant price increases, with non-ferrous metal mining prices up by 22.7% year-on-year [9] Group 3: Price Influences and Trends - The increase in PPI is attributed to the ongoing construction of a unified national market, rising demand, and external factors affecting prices in the non-ferrous metal and petroleum sectors [7][8] - The prices of essential consumer goods remained stable before the Spring Festival, with food prices holding steady and certain categories like fresh vegetables and grains experiencing slight declines [2][4] - The adjustment of the CPI basket to reflect changes in consumer behavior, such as the increased purchase of new energy vehicles, is aimed at improving the accuracy of price indices [5][6]

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Range - bound trading [2][4] - Rebar: Wide - range trading [2][6] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range trading [2][6] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range trading [2][10] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range trading [2][10] - Coke: Wide - range trading [2][14] - Coking coal: Wide - range trading affected by events [2][15] - Logs: Range - bound trading [2][19] 2. Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend intensities for various black - series commodities, and presents their fundamentals and relevant macro and industry news [2][4][6] 3. Summaries by Commodities Iron Ore - **Price and Position**: The closing price of I2605 was 762.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.13%); the position decreased by 6,983 hands to 506,957 hands [4] - **Spot Price**: Imported and domestic ore prices remained stable [4] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spreads of some contracts changed slightly [4] - **News**: In January, CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year, PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and fell 1.4% year - on - year; China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3 [4] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Position**: The closing price of RB2605 was 3,054 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.07%); the closing price of HC2605 was 3,228 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.06%). The position of RB2605 decreased by 1,877 hands, and that of HC2605 increased by 9,529 hands [6] - **Spot Price**: Spot prices in major cities remained unchanged [6] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spreads of some contracts changed [6] - **News**: On February 5th, steel production, inventory and apparent demand data changed; in late January, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data changed; BHP's iron ore production hit a record high; China's steel import data changed; some steel products were subject to export license management [7][8] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position**: The closing prices of SiFe2603 and SiFe2605 decreased, while those of SiMn2603 and SiMn2605 increased [11] - **News**: A new capacity of a silicon - manganese plant in Inner Mongolia was ignited; Jupiter would not provide manganese ore supply and quotes to China in March; silicon - iron and silicon - manganese prices were reported; a steel mill's silicon - iron procurement price was determined; electricity prices in some southern regions increased, and southern silicon - manganese production was expected to decrease [10][11][12] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position**: The closing price of JM2605 was 1,123.5 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan/ton (0.4%); the closing price of J2605 was 1,667 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.1%). The position of JM2605 decreased by 14,309 hands, and that of J2605 increased by 820 hands [15] - **Spot Price**: Most spot prices remained stable, with a 2 - yuan increase in Mongolian 5 coking coal in Tangshan [15] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spreads of some contracts changed [15] - **News**: On February 11th, CCI metallurgical coal index data was reported; the coking coal online auction had a 43% non - successful bid rate, with most transaction prices falling [15] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [18] Logs - **Price, Volume and Position**: The closing prices, trading volumes and positions of different log contracts changed, with some showing declines. Spot prices in most regions remained stable [19] - **News**: In January, CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year, PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and fell 1.4% year - on - year; China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3 [21] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a weak expectation in the steel market, with low volatility in futures steel prices [14][19] - In January, China's CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, while PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [4][15] - The sales of excavators in January 2026 reached 18,708 units, a year-on-year increase of 49.5%, with domestic sales up 61.4% and exports up 40.5% [4][15] Group 2 - As of February 11, 2026, only two steel mills have introduced winter storage discount policies, targeting internal agreement clients and nearby strategic customers [4][15] - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills was 79.53%, an increase of 0.53 percentage points week-on-week [4][15] - The average cost for 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,296 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62 yuan/ton from the previous day, with an average loss of 52 yuan/ton [5][16] Group 3 - Last week, rebar production decreased by 81,500 tons to 1.9168 million tons, with total inventory increasing by 440,400 tons to 5.1957 million tons [6][17] - Hot-rolled steel production slightly decreased by 500 tons to 3.0916 million tons, with total inventory increasing by 36,200 tons [7][18] - The five major steel products' total supply was 8.199 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 32,700 tons, while total inventory rose by 592,400 tons [5][16] Group 4 - The strategy for rebar futures is bearish in the short term, with support observed around 3,050 [8][19] - The strategy for hot-rolled futures is also bearish in the short term, with support around 3,200 [8][19] - The alloy prices are under pressure, with silicon iron supply remaining low and manganese prices at a high level [9][20]

中金研究 1 月 CPI 同比从 0.8% 回落至 0.2% ，主要受春节错位影响，食品和服务拖累较大。金价上涨和换新需求释放难抵服务拖累，核心 CPI 同比回落至 0.8% 。 PPI 环比涨幅走扩至 0.4% 、同比跌幅收窄至 -1.4% ，主要受国际有色涨价、化工光伏反内卷、 AI 需求推动，但中下游顺价压力仍大。基期轮换对通胀读数影 响不大，但分类和调查的调整关注新消费、新模式和新方法，权数结构变化反映消费结构从商品向服务、从生存型向发展享受型的变迁 [1] 。向前看， 2 月 CPI 同比有望回弹，但后续物价改善幅度还看内需修复速度。 点击小程序查看报告原文 春节错月拖累同比。 1月CPI同比由上月0.8%回落至0.2%，主要受春节错位影响。春节所在月份往往CPI环比较高，今年春节在2月，去年春节在1月，导致 1月食品和服务等价格在高基数、低新增下，同比由前月的1.1%和0.6%回落至-0.7%和0.1%[2]，分别拖累CPI同比0.3和0.2ppt。 1月CPI环比0.2%，弱于十年同期可比均值的0.6%[3]，但考虑到疫情后服务样本更具代表性的调整，这个环比与疫后春节相似的2024年1月相当（0 ...

（来源：中华工商时报） 转自：中华工商时报 在全国统一大市场建设持续推进、部分行业需求增加等因素带动下，1月份，PPI继续呈现积极变化。 "1月份，PPI环比上涨0.4%，连续4个月上涨，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点。全国统一大市场建设持续 推进带动部分行业价格上涨，水泥制造、锂离子电池制造价格环比均连续4个月上涨。"董莉娟说。 董莉娟分析，部分行业需求增加，进一步带动相关行业价格上涨。例如，人工智能等数字化技术加快发 展、算力需求增长带动计算机通信和其他电子设备制造业价格环比上涨0.5%；春节前礼品和食品等备 货需求增加带动工艺美术及礼仪用品制造、农副食品加工业价格分别上涨4.1%和0.3%。 国家统计局2月11日发布数据显示，1月份，居民消费需求持续恢复，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）同 比上涨0.2%，环比上涨0.2%；工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）同比下降1.4%，降幅比上月收窄0.5个百 分点；环比上涨0.4%，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点。 "1月份，居民消费需求持续恢复，CPI保持上涨，但同比涨幅有所回落。"国家统计局城市司首席统计师 董莉娟分析，CPI涨幅回落，一是受春节错月影响，上年1月份 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the fluctuation of national consumer price index (CPI) in China, indicating a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [1] - The data shows a monthly change in CPI, with various months experiencing different rates of increase or decrease [1] - The report highlights specific months where CPI experienced slight increases or decreases, reflecting the overall trend in consumer prices [1] Group 2 - The CPI data is presented in a format that allows for easy comparison across months, showing both year-on-year and month-on-month changes [1] - The fluctuations in CPI are critical for understanding inflation trends and consumer purchasing power in the economy [1] - The report suggests that monitoring these changes is essential for making informed investment decisions in related sectors [1]

除了春节错月因素，能源价格同比降幅扩大也是CPI同比涨幅回落的原因之一。1月能源价格同比下降 5.0%，对CPI同比的下拉影响比2025年12月增加约0.06个百分点。其中，汽油价格同比下降11.4%，降幅 比2025年12月扩大3.0个百分点。 扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI温和上涨，体现出居民消费需求持续恢复。数据显示，1月核心CPI同比 上涨0.8%，环比上涨0.3%，环比涨幅为近6个月最高。 "促消费政策推动耐用消费品价格走高，是近期核心CPI涨幅较高的主要支撑。"东方金诚首席宏观分析 师王青对上海证券报记者表示。数据显示，扣除能源的工业消费品价格同比上涨2.6%，涨幅比2025年 12月扩大0.1个百分点。 1月，PPI环比上涨0.4%，涨幅比2025年12月扩大0.2个百分点，实现了连续4个月上涨。PPI同比下降 1.4%，降幅比2025年12月收窄0.5个百分点，实现连续2个月同比降幅收窄。 究其原因，民生银行首席经济学家温彬对上海证券报记者表示，主要是重点行业产能治理成效持续显 现、部分行业供需结构有所改善、新质生产力培育壮大带动相关行业价格上涨等。 物价运行呈低位温和回升态势。国家统计局2月 ...