Summary of the Conference Call on China Economics Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese economy**, particularly the inflation metrics and the impact of anti-involution on various sectors [1][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **CPI and PPI Trends**: - China's headline **CPI** turned negative at **-0.4% YoY** in August, primarily due to falling food prices [4][6]. - The **PPI** reading improved to **-2.9% YoY**, with a sequential change of **0.0% MoM**, marking the end of an 8-month streak of negative prints [5][6]. 2. **Food Prices Impact**: - Food prices increased by **0.5% MoM**, but the year-on-year decline widened to **-4.3% YoY**, the largest contraction since February 2024 [6]. - Pork prices continued to decline, reaching **-16.1% YoY**, while vegetables and fruits also saw significant price drops [6]. 3. **Core Inflation**: - Core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose to **0.9% YoY**, with core goods inflation reaching **1.4% YoY**, the highest since February 2020 [6][13]. 4. **Sector-Specific Insights**: - Upstream sectors showed signs of reflation, particularly in coal and ferrous metal mining, where contractions narrowed significantly [5][6]. - Downstream sectors, including solar and NEVs, experienced selective recovery, but overall demand remains a concern [5][6]. 5. **Future Expectations**: - A firm pickup in CPI is expected towards year-end, despite near-term volatility, with ongoing upstream reflation for PPI [1][15]. - Incremental policy measures are anticipated, focusing on property support, infrastructure, and potential new financial injections of approximately **RMB 500 billion** [16]. 6. **Monetary Policy Outlook**: - The central bank is not expected to rush into rate cuts, with both policy rate cuts and RRR cuts likely delayed amid an equity rally [16]. Additional Important Content - The report highlights the potential for smaller discounts during upcoming online promotions due to regulatory efforts to manage price competition in food delivery [15]. - The overall economic outlook suggests stabilization in the GDP deflator and a cautious approach to monetary easing, reflecting the complexities of the current economic environment [15][16]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations of the Chinese economy.

All right, so estimates 2.9% headline. I know Jay Pal said 2.9% was fine for PCE. Is 2.9% okay for CPI knowing that we have this Fed meeting coming up just uh less than a week, just about 6 days away.And if it comes in in line or lower, what do you think that means for the market. Well, tough questions, right. A lot of questions.Uh 2.9%'s above the Fed's target. I mean, the CPI runs about a half a point above the consumer expenditure deflator, which is what the Fed targets, and that's the 2% target. So if y ...

Alright lads.CPI today, BTC trying to reclaim the range.What are we thinking? ...

每经AI快讯，9月11日消息，爱尔兰8月份CPI环比上涨0.4%，而7月份上涨0.1%。 ...

每经AI快讯，9月11日消息，爱尔兰8月份CPI环比上涨0.4%，而7月份上涨0.1%。 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - August CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 0% and the expected -0.2%[6] - Food prices dragged down CPI significantly, with food item CPI at -4.3%, impacting overall CPI by approximately 0.72 percentage points[6] - Pork prices fell by 16.1% year-on-year, contributing to a 0.24 percentage point decline in August CPI[6] Group 2: PPI Insights - August PPI decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, a reduction of 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous value[11] - The decline in PPI is primarily due to the recovery in raw material prices like steel and coal, influenced by the "anti-involution" measures[11] - To achieve a positive PPI year-on-year by year-end, the average month-on-month growth from September to December must exceed 0.53%, which poses a challenge[18] Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term CPI pressures are expected to persist, but a rebound is anticipated in Q4 due to stable prices of pork and fresh produce[10] - The "anti-involution" measures in the pig farming industry are expected to lead to a moderate recovery in pork prices in Q4, potentially supporting CPI growth[10] - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic policies and unexpected changes in overseas policies and geopolitical situations[21]

[日期Table_Industry] : shzqdatemark [Table_Summary] 主要观点 2025年09月11日 ——2025 年 8 月物价数据点评 食品基数拖累 CPI，核心 CPI 稳步上升 CPI 环比持平，较上月下降 0.4 个百分点，低于季节性水平约 0.3 个百 分点。食品价格环比上涨 0.5%，涨幅低于季节性水平约 1.1 个百分 点。另外由于去年同期基数偏高，上年价格变动对本月 CPI 同比的翘 尾影响约为-0.9 个百分点，下拉影响比上月扩大 0.4 个百分点。因此 二者共同作用下，导致本月 CPI 同比下降 0.4%，持续低位运行。而与 此同时，扣除食品和能源价格的核心 CPI 上涨 0.9%，涨幅扩大 0.1 个 百分点，核心 CPI 稳步上升，显示出需求稳中有升。PPI 跌幅收窄， 同比下降 2.9%，降幅比上月收窄 0.7 个百分点，是连续下滑后的首次 改善，且幅度也较突出。一方面环比回升，时隔八月结束负增，而另 一方面去年同期基数偏低，翘尾因素的下拉影响也有所减少。主要行 业中，除了燃气、医药、食品之外，其余行业价格均以改善或回升为 主。总体来看，PPI 有所 ...

记者 王珍 8月，我国物价走势呈现 "一升一降" 的分化特征：工业品出厂价格指数（PPI）迎来积极变化，同比降 幅自3月以来首次收窄，环比今年以来首次止跌，但居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比由平转负、环比涨 幅收窄。 分析师认为，PPI跌幅收窄很大程度上得益于"反内卷"政策的催化，在遏制无序竞争、推进产能治理的 作用下，煤炭、钢铁等上游原材料价格改善明显。 对于PPI和CPI走势分化，东北证券资深宏观分析师张超越对智通财经指出，PPI向CPI的传导本身并不 会一蹴而就。一方面，在成本价格稍有抬升，但总需求相对平稳阶段，企业为了维护市场份额，通常不 会贸然提价并将成本完全转移给消费者，供应链会率先消化上游的部分价格涨幅。 "另一方面，房租，旅游、医疗、教育等服务类项目在CPI中权重占比较高，而这些项目与民生相关，价 格通常较为稳定，故CPI通胀对PPI通胀的弹性本身就不会很高。"张超越说。 财信金控首席经济学家伍超明对智通财经表示，本轮"反内卷"对CPI的推升作用或明显弱于2015-16年供 给侧结构性改革时期。一是，本轮反内卷更加注重通过法治化、市场化方式优化市场秩序，相关行业产 能去化幅度和节奏相对偏弱偏慢； ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - In August, the price index was under marginal pressure, with both CPI and PPI year-on-year in the negative range. The year-on-year decline of CPI was 0.4%, and the month-on-month was flat. The year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.9%, and the month-on-month turned from decline to flat [1]. - The year-on-year pressure on CPI and flat month-on-month may be affected by the seasonal weakness of food prices and high base. In the future, food prices in September may continue to be under pressure due to high base, while service prices may continue to recover in the second half of the year [1]. - The year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed for the first time in six months. The month-on-month turn to flat was mainly affected by policy-driven supply-demand improvement and imported factors. In the future, the prices of production materials in September may continue to pick up, while the stabilization of living materials may depend on the repair of food PPI [1]. - The downward pressure on the economy may increase in the second half of the year. In August, the year-on-year growth rate of prices was lower than expected, and the manufacturing PMI continued to be below the boom-bust line, indicating growth pressure. Consumption and exports may face certain pressure in the second half of the year [1]. - The short-term bond market may be suppressed by sentiment, and the bond market is bullish in September. It is believed that the downward pressure on the economy may increase in the second half of the year, the capital side will continue to be loose, the central bank may restart Treasury bond purchases, and the self-operated allocation demand of banks will support the decline of bond market interest rates [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content CPI Situation - In August 2025, CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.4%, month-on-month was flat, both down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The year-on-year increase of core CPI continued to expand to 0.9% for the fourth consecutive month, reflecting the improvement trend of domestic demand [1]. - The year-on-year decline of CPI food prices has been negative for seven consecutive months. In August 2025, it decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 2.7 percentage points from the previous month. Food and tobacco had a drag of about -0.74 percentage points on CPI year-on-year. Non-food prices increased by 0.5% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for three consecutive months, mainly driven by industrial consumer goods and service items [1]. - Looking forward, food prices in September may continue to be under pressure due to high base. With relevant policies, service prices may continue to recover in the second half of the year [1]. PPI Situation - In August 2025, the year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed to 2.9%, the first narrowing since February this year, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the month-on-month turned from decline to flat, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, ending the continuous decline for eight months [1]. - From the sub-items, the year-on-year decline of production materials narrowed, up 1.1 percentage points from July to -3.2%, and the year-on-year decline of living materials slightly expanded, down 0.1 percentage points from July to -1.7% [1]. - The month-on-month turn to flat of PPI was mainly affected by policy-driven supply-demand improvement and imported factors. In the future, the prices of production materials in September may continue to pick up, while the stabilization of living materials may depend on the repair of food PPI [1]. Economic and Bond Market Situation - In August, the year-on-year growth rate of prices was lower than expected, and the manufacturing PMI continued to be below the boom-bust line, indicating growth pressure. Consumption and exports may face certain pressure in the second half of the year [1]. - The short-term bond market may be suppressed by sentiment, and the bond market is bullish in September. It is expected that the 10Y Treasury bond yield will be between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year, and will return to around 1.65% in the next six months [1].

Group 1: Inflation Data Analysis - In August 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, marking a return to negative growth after two months[6] - Food prices fell by 4.3% year-on-year, with significant declines in pork (16.1%), fresh vegetables (15.2%), and eggs (14.2%) contributing to a downward pressure on CPI[6] - Non-food prices increased by 0.5% year-on-year, partially offsetting the decline in food prices[6] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, indicating potential effectiveness of domestic demand policies[6] Group 2: PPI and Economic Outlook - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year in August, but the decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, suggesting a potential turning point[11] - The PPI's month-on-month change improved from a decline of 0.2% to flat, ending an eight-month downward trend[12] - The improvement in PPI is attributed to the effectiveness of supply-side reforms, particularly in coal and new energy vehicle sectors[11] - Current PPI conditions support a downward trend in interest rates rather than an upward shift, indicating a need for continued policy efforts to stabilize economic recovery[1]