Core Insights - The Chinese capital market is undergoing a systematic shift in its underlying logic over the next five years, with a high historical fulfillment rate of the core objectives outlined in the "Five-Year Plan" [2] - The focus of policy and industrial resource allocation will be concentrated on 16 key sectors, including semiconductors and new materials, while traditional infrastructure and real estate are losing importance [7][10] Group 1: Industry Trends - There is a significant potential for domestic substitution in high-end manufacturing, with a 90% domestic replacement space identified in various sectors [6] - The current domestic replacement rates for critical components are low, indicating substantial opportunities for growth in areas such as photolithography and high-end machine tools [6][12] - The policy support is no longer evenly distributed but is highly concentrated on specific sectors, marking a shift in resource allocation [7] Group 2: Investment Implications - The competition in sectors where domestic rates are nearing saturation is becoming intense, while areas with lower domestic rates present longer-term opportunities for investment [12] - Sustainable returns in hard technology sectors will favor participants who can maintain long-term investment strategies rather than seeking short-term profits [15] - The historical context of policy changes reflects a transfer of wealth in China, with the semiconductor sector now positioned as a new economic engine [10]

转自：北京日报客户端 国内新能源车渗透率提升、电动智能化加速背景下，国元证券认为，纳芯微依托自身在新能源车赛道的 全产品布局，汽车模拟芯片业务占国内市场的份额有望从2024年的1.8%提升至2026年的2.8%。 在此次港股上市的发行阶段，产业资本用真金白银投下了认同票——据招股书及公开信息，公司与元禾 纳芯、Golden Link、好易得国际、Perseverance Asset Management等多家主体订立了基石投资协议，其 中Golden Link为比亚迪间接全资拥有、Green Better是小米集团的全资附属公司，巨头旗下投资平台入 主，被视作对纳芯微赛道前景的高度认可。 纳芯微在公告中提及，此次募资将投向提升底层技术能力及工艺平台、进一步丰富产品组合、扩展海外 销售网络及市场推广、战略投资或收购，同时补充营运资金。业内人士此前向北京商报记者提及，港交 所这一平台，对国内半导体公司深入推进国际化战略、利用国际资本市场实现融资多元化等布局至关重 要。 半导体行业景气度的春风吹向模拟芯片，行业巨头随即释放出明确的提价信号。 全球头部厂商亚德诺近日向客户下发调价通知，2026年2月起全产品线启动提价 ...

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 深 度 2025 年 12 月 29 日 芯动联科 (688582) ——强芯强国之特种模块/芯片系列报告之八：MEMS 惯性 传感器领军者，国产替代叠加场景拓展驱动高增长 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： 2025 年 12 月 26 日 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 68.25 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 88.95/45.57 | | 市净率 | 11.3 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 0.56 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 17,077 | | 上证指数/深证成指 3,963.68/13,603.89 | | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 6.05 | | 资产负债率% | 3.13 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 402/250 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： -50% 0% 50% 100% ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower but rose to challenge a nine-day winning streak, with strength in computing chip sectors. The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) increased by 0.29%, with stocks like Cambricon and Liandong Technology rising over 4% [1] - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) has seen continuous capital inflow, with over 47 million yuan net inflow for two consecutive trading days [1] - According to a report by Chengtong Securities, semiconductor investments driven by AI should focus on two main lines: high-end logic chips and memory (HBM) that directly benefit from the surge in computing demand, and opportunities for domestic substitution in the semiconductor equipment sector [1] Group 2 - The storage market is experiencing price increases, with NAND flash wafer prices rising over 10% in December, and SSD prices increasing by 15% to 20%. Major suppliers like Samsung and SK Hynix have raised HBM3E prices by nearly 20% for 2026 [2] - Foundries are also raising prices, with SMIC implementing price increases of about 10% on some capacities [3] - The duration and magnitude of the storage price increase cycle have exceeded expectations, with projections for accelerated growth in domestic semiconductor equipment orders by 2026 due to AI demand driving global storage and advanced process capacity expansion [4] Group 3 - The global semiconductor equipment market is expected to grow significantly, with total sales projected to reach $133 billion by 2025, a 13.7% increase year-on-year, and further growth anticipated in the following years [5] - The domestic semiconductor equipment industry is seeing improvements in process coverage and market share, with domestic rates exceeding 50% in certain areas like etching and cleaning, while core high-end segments remain below 10%, indicating substantial room for domestic substitution [7] Group 4 - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) tracks the CSI semiconductor index, with nearly 60% of its components in "equipment" and over 90% in upstream sectors of the chip industry, highlighting significant domestic substitution potential [11] - The index focuses on leading companies in the sector, with the top ten holdings accounting for nearly 80% of the index, showing high elasticity characteristics. As of December 24, the CSI semiconductor index has seen a year-to-date increase of over 63% [11]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a rating of "Buy" for the company [2]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading enterprise in wet chemical products, focusing on semiconductor applications and expanding its international and diversified strategies to become a world-class electronic materials company [7][19]. - The semiconductor industry is entering a prosperous cycle, with significant capacity expansion in wafer fabs, which is expected to benefit material suppliers like the company [7][41]. - The company has a robust product matrix, including electronic-grade phosphoric acid and sulfuric acid, which are pivotal for its growth, especially in functional wet chemical products [8][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, established in 2008, specializes in the research, production, and sales of wet electronic chemicals, with a focus on semiconductor applications [16]. - It has developed a comprehensive product system, including electronic-grade phosphoric acid, sulfuric acid, and hydrogen peroxide, achieving high standards recognized by major semiconductor manufacturers [16][18]. 2. Industry Outlook - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a "super cycle," with rising demand for storage chips and increased wafer fab utilization, leading to a favorable environment for material suppliers [41][43]. - The report highlights that domestic semiconductor companies are ramping up production, which will further enhance the demand for the company's products [46]. 3. Financial Performance - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with total revenue projected to reach 1,459 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 28.3% [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow significantly, reaching 227 million yuan in 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 59 [6][8]. 4. Product Development - The company is expanding its product offerings in functional wet chemicals, with a focus on electronic gases and advanced electronic materials, which are expected to contribute to long-term growth [19][20]. - The report indicates that the company has a strong pipeline of new products, with 35 products successfully tested by advanced process customers [19]. 5. Market Position - The company benefits from its affiliation with Xingfa Group, a leading player in the phosphorus chemical industry, providing a strong supply chain advantage [22]. - The company’s market share in electronic-grade phosphoric acid is the highest in China, with significant production capacity planned for the coming years [20][24].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of the Sci-Tech Innovation Artificial Intelligence ETF (589520), driven by significant developments in the domestic AI industry and the strategic importance of domestic chip procurement. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Sci-Tech Innovation Artificial Intelligence ETF (589520) showed strong performance in early trading, with prices rising over 1.8% at one point and currently up 1.38%, recovering the 60-day moving average and aiming for a fourth consecutive daily gain [1][8] - Among the constituent stocks, Chip Original Co. led with a rise of over 7%, followed by Yuntian Lifei with over 5%, and Cambricon Technologies with over 4% [1][8] Group 2: Domestic Chip Procurement - ByteDance is expected to procure Ascend chips from Huawei by 2026, with total orders potentially exceeding 40 billion yuan [3][10] - National Investment Securities notes that the domestic computing power sector is undergoing significant changes, with continuous iterations of domestic chips represented by Huawei's Ascend and major internet companies gradually adapting to these chips [3][10] Group 3: Strategic Importance of AI - The current period is described as a "golden window" for the AI sector, driven by policy support and strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing technological self-reliance [5][12] - The new five-year plan emphasizes improving the level of technological self-reliance as a core goal, providing long-term support for AI and domestic substitution [5][12] Group 4: Industry Performance and Trends - As of the third quarter of 2025, 20 out of 30 constituent companies of the ETF reported profitability, with 22 companies showing year-on-year growth in net profit, indicating strong industry performance [6][12] - There is a significant demand for domestic AI applications to catch up with international counterparts, suggesting a potential for price recovery in the domestic AI application sector [6][12] Group 5: Investment Characteristics of the ETF - The ETF focuses on the domestic AI industry chain, with over 70% of its top ten holdings concentrated in this area, and more than half of its holdings in the semiconductor sector, indicating a high concentration and aggressive investment strategy [13] - The ETF serves as an efficient tool for investors looking to gain exposure to domestic computing power [13]

Core Insights - The article highlights the strong performance of the Sci-Tech Innovation Artificial Intelligence ETF (589520), which saw a price increase of over 1.8% in early trading, currently up by 1.38%, recovering the 60-day moving average and aiming for a fourth consecutive daily gain [1] - ByteDance is expected to purchase Ascend chips from Huawei, with total orders potentially exceeding 40 billion yuan by 2026, indicating a significant shift in the domestic computing power landscape [3] - The article emphasizes that the current period is a "golden window" for the Sci-Tech Innovation AI sector, driven by policy support, strong earnings, external pressures for self-sufficiency, and substantial room for price recovery compared to overseas counterparts [5][6] Policy and Market Dynamics - The new five-year plan prioritizes "technological self-reliance," providing robust support for AI and domestic alternatives through national strategies and industrial policies [6] - As of November, 20 out of 30 companies in the ETF's index reported profitability, with 22 showing year-on-year growth in net profit, reflecting strong industry performance [6] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions highlight the importance of technology security, making AI and domestic alternatives a long-term certainty [6] Investment Opportunities - There is a significant demand for price recovery in the domestic AI supply chain, which has lagged behind international counterparts, suggesting a high cost-performance ratio for investments in AI applications [6] - The ETF focuses on the domestic AI industry chain, with over 70% of its top ten holdings and more than half of its weight in the semiconductor sector, indicating a strong offensive strategy [7] - The ETF serves as an efficient tool for investors looking to gain exposure to domestic computing power, being a financing and margin trading target [7]

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Zhenbao Technology Co., Ltd. (Zhenbao Technology) has made an unusual commitment regarding its IPO, promising to extend the lock-up period of its shares if net profit declines by more than 50% in any year within three years post-IPO, indicating concerns about the sustainability of its performance [2] Financial Performance - The net cash flow from operating activities for Zhenbao Technology from 2022 to 2024 was 93.22 million, -77.70 million, and 206 million respectively, with 2023 showing a negative cash flow primarily due to increased material procurement and labor costs [4] - The company's revenue and profit growth are accompanied by a significant increase in accounts receivable, which grew at a rate exceeding revenue growth, raising concerns about the authenticity of its performance [5] - Accounts receivable balances from 2022 to 2024 were 131 million, 183 million, and 223 million, representing 33.99%, 36.06%, and 35.19% of revenue respectively, indicating a high proportion compared to the industry average of 20%-25% [5] - The weighted average return on equity has declined from 28.92% to 17.1% over the past three years, reflecting decreasing profitability and operational efficiency [6] Research and Development - Zhenbao Technology's R&D investment is concerning, with R&D expenses accounting for only 8.36% of projected revenue in 2024, significantly below the 15% threshold for companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [8] - R&D expenses from 2022 to 2024 were 18.19 million, 29.94 million, and 53.02 million, with the R&D intensity remaining below industry averages [8] Customer Concentration and Risks - The revenue concentration from the top five customers has decreased from 80.23% to 72.80%, but remains high, leading to longer accounts receivable recovery periods [6] - Concerns exist regarding the stability of the global semiconductor supply chain due to geopolitical uncertainties and trade restrictions, which could impact Zhenbao Technology's operations [9] Governance and Control - The company has a high concentration of control, with the actual controller Wang Bing holding 57.20% of voting rights, raising concerns about governance and potential conflicts of interest [10] - Wang Bing's family members and associated entities also hold significant stakes, which may lead to issues in protecting the interests of ordinary investors [10] Legal and Compliance Issues - Zhenbao Technology and its subsidiaries have faced administrative penalties for regulatory violations, indicating potential internal control weaknesses [12]

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 12 月 29 日 茅台定调投放量总体稳定，食品加大顺周期布局 食品饮料行业周报（12.28） 消费品/食品饮料 本周茅台经销商大会召开，26 年投放量定调总体平稳，减少高附加值产品投入 量，从以产定销到以销定产、分销取消。老窖在临时股东会上表示，国窖价格 管控将继续克制，26Q1 可能是行业重点调整窗口，公司将延续理性。我们预 计茅台 26 年量增落在持平-小个位数区间，叠加新兴渠道挖潜激发大众购酒需 求，供需关系相比 25 年有望显著改善。大众品板块加大顺周期板块布局。乳 制品随着供给有序去化+深加工需求逐步释放，明年奶价拐点确定性提升，牧 场之后看好 26 年龙头乳企在业绩修复+股息支撑的估值中枢抬升。仙乐 BF 个 护业务剥离在即，26 年业绩低基数下弹性高、建议结合季度节奏布局。 ❑ 核心公司跟踪：茅台定调投放量总体稳定，国窖价格管控克制。 贵州茅台：定调投放量总体稳定，26 年以销定产。茅台全国经销商联谊 会在贵阳召开，公司指出 25 年存在产品动销循环不畅、渠道转型动能不 足、"市场化"转型配套支撑不足三大问题，为此 26 年公司 1）维护量 价动态 ...

国泰海通主要观点如下： 收购进展持续推进，强强联合优势互补 国泰海通发布研报称，维持现代牧业(01117)"增持"评级。该行预计公司2026-27年EPS分别为0.05、0.19 元/股。公司为牧业行业龙头，受益于肉奶周期反转，给予2025年公司1.3倍P/B，对应目标价1.85港元/ 股。公司持续推进圣牧收购事宜，整合后规模效应有望进一步增强，目前周期筑底存栏加速去化，反补 贴政策落地有望加快国产替代进程。 25H1中国圣牧收入同比-3.1%至14.44亿元，其中销量同比+6.3%至37.30万吨，销售均价同比-8.9%至3.87 元/kg;奶牛存栏环比-0.09万头至14.36万头。本次收购将整合大股东蒙牛旗下上游牧场资源，进一步强化 规模效应整合完成后，公司牛群规模将超过61万头，原奶产量将超过400万吨，特色奶产量占比将从8% 提升至逾20%;公司将与中国圣牧在资源、技术、市场及管理等方面协同互补，产品及资产结构有望优 化，规模效应下采购成本有望进一步下降。 周期筑底存栏加速去化，政策落地加快国产替代 11月奶牛存栏加速去化，主因资金压力持续与后备牛补栏减少影响初现，后续补栏断档影响有望逐月体 现。近 ...