Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade negotiations and tariff policies under the Trump administration, highlighting the implications for various countries and industries, particularly focusing on the U.S.-China trade relationship and the potential impacts on exports and economic growth. Group 1: Tariff Negotiations and Policies - The U.S. has postponed the deadline for tariff negotiations from July 9 to August 1, with President Trump indicating a potential increase in tariffs on imports from various countries, including Japan, which could reach 30-35% [1][2] - The "Big and Beautiful" bill passed by the U.S. House aims to reduce taxes and government spending, which is seen as part of Trump's economic strategy to boost domestic demand while increasing government revenue through tariffs [2][3] - The U.S. has reached agreements with the UK and Vietnam, while negotiations with Japan, the EU, and India are ongoing, indicating a complex international trade landscape [1][2] Group 2: Impact on Exports and Industries - The article notes that the tariff situation has led to a surge in exports from China, with a 6% growth rate in exports from January to May, surpassing the previous year's growth [4] - Companies are experiencing pressure to expedite production due to uncertainty surrounding future tariffs, particularly in the electronic paper industry, which has seen significant demand from clients [5][6] - The "rush to export" phenomenon is highlighted, with estimates suggesting that approximately $24 billion in exports were preemptively shipped to the U.S. in anticipation of higher tariffs [7][8] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Challenges - The article emphasizes that while there has been a temporary boost in exports, the long-term outlook remains uncertain due to ongoing tariff negotiations and potential economic pressures [9][10] - The manufacturing PMI in China has shown signs of recovery, but new export orders remain below the growth threshold, indicating persistent challenges in the export sector [10][11] - The article suggests that the global trade environment will continue to impact China's economy, with a need for strategic policy adjustments to navigate the uncertainties ahead [12][13]

美国总统特朗普7日宣布将从8月1日起分别对来自日本、韩国等14个国家的进口产品征收25%至40%不 等的关税，并决定将"对等关税"暂缓期截止日期延长至8月1日。一些美国媒体将最新系列举措解读为升 级贸易战之举。 哪些国家面临美国最新关税威胁？金融市场和贸易伙伴如何回应美方动作？美政府将谈判延期又施压加 码背后有何意图？ 哪些国家面临美最新关税威胁？ 特朗普当天在社交媒体上陆续发布他写给日本、韩国等14国领导人的信函，称将从8月1日起对这些国家 征收25%到40%不等的关税。 根据信函，日本、韩国、马来西亚、突尼斯、哈萨克斯坦将被征收25%的关税，南非和波黑将被征收 30%的关税，印度尼西亚将被征收32%的关税，塞尔维亚和孟加拉国将被征收35%的关税，泰国和柬埔 寨将被征收36%的关税，老挝和缅甸则面临40%的关税。 同一天，特朗普签署行政令，延长"对等关税"90天暂缓期，将实施时间从7月9日推迟到8月1日。特朗普 表示，8月1日的期限不是"100%固定的"，他将对此保持灵活性。 特朗普4月2日宣布开征所谓"对等关税"，引发美国金融市场暴跌。在多方压力下，他又在4月9日宣布暂 缓对部分贸易对象征收高额"对等关税 ...

Group 1 - Trump expresses support for former Brazilian President Bolsonaro, criticizing Brazil's treatment of him and highlighting Bolsonaro's strong leadership and trade negotiation skills [1] - Trump Media Technology Group launches global streaming platform Truth+, making Newsmax channel available on all international Truth+ applications and websites [2] - Trump signs executive order extending the tariff suspension period to August 1, delaying the implementation from July 9 [3] Group 2 - Trump seeks to terminate subsidies for wind and solar energy, labeling renewable energy as unreliable and expensive, and harmful to the environment and power grid [4] - Trump issues tariff threats to 14 countries, with varying rates from 25% to 40%, effective August 1 [5] - Trump indicates willingness to lift sanctions on Iran at an appropriate time [6] Group 3 - Trump expresses dissatisfaction with Putin and announces increased weapon shipments to Ukraine, citing disappointment over Russia's actions [8] - A proposal is made for Trump to be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize [9] - Trump suggests that the tariff implementation date could be postponed if countries make proposals [10]

Group 1 - The core issue is the impending end of the US's equal tariff suspension period, leading to a backlash from 29 countries against the US, highlighting a shift in international alliances [1][5][9] - The US's equal tariff policy, which imposes a 10% tariff on most countries, is seen as an attempt to adjust the global economic order in favor of US interests, disregarding the economic differences among nations [3][5] - The response from traditional allies, such as South Korea and Japan, indicates a growing discontent with US policies, with both countries expressing their unwillingness to accept the proposed tariff increases [7][9] Group 2 - The EU's 27 member states have collectively decided not to reach an agreement with the US before the deadline, further complicating the situation for the Trump administration [9] - Former Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama emphasized the need for Japan to adjust its relationship with the US and strengthen cooperation with China and South Korea to gain more influence [11][12] - The combined GDP of China, Japan, and South Korea accounts for 23.4% of the global total, and their trade volume represents 18.7% of global trade, indicating the significant impact of their cooperation on the global economic landscape [11][12]

Group 1 - The U.S. government, led by President Trump, unexpectedly extended the deadline for "reciprocal tariffs" to August 1, indicating a shift in trade policy just hours before the original deadline [3][5] - The U.S. trade deficit surged by 18% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with over 35% attributed to trade with China, highlighting a structural imbalance in the U.S. economy [5] - The potential for significant economic backlash from tariff increases is evident, as major retailers like Walmart and Home Depot warned of price hikes of 15%-20%, which could severely impact low- and middle-income families [10] Group 2 - China's strategic advantage in rare earth resources is significant, with the U.S. relying on China for 83.7% of its rare earth imports, and up to 97% for heavy rare earths [12][15] - The U.S. semiconductor industry faces a 20% capacity shortfall if tariffs are imposed on Malaysia, which supplies 40% of advanced packaging materials globally [7] - The trade negotiations between the U.S. and China have seen China leverage its resource control to negotiate favorable terms, such as linking rare earth exports to the lifting of U.S. technology restrictions [17][18] Group 3 - The U.S. tariff policy is reshaping global trade dynamics, prompting retaliatory measures from other countries, including a 25% retaliatory tariff from the EU on U.S. agricultural products [19] - Emerging market countries are increasingly seeking to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar, with initiatives like the BRICS currency settlement mechanism and ASEAN's digital trade negotiations [21][23] - China's investments in ASEAN countries increased by 37% in the first half of 2025, focusing on critical sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy, thereby enhancing its strategic positioning against U.S. tariffs [25]

FICC日报 | 2025-07-08 关税政策面临调整，高位股回落 市场分析 关税政策进入下一阶段。关税方面，特朗普威胁对金砖国家加征10%新关税。外交部对此回应称，金砖机制是新 兴市场和发展中国家合作的重要平台，倡导开放包容、合作共赢，不搞阵营对抗，不针对任何国家。关于加征关 税，中方已经多次阐明了立场，贸易战、关税战没有赢家，保护主义没有出路。特朗普接连在社媒上公布其对多 个国家发出的关税信函，截至目前，其已对14个国家发出最新的关税税率威胁，其中日本、韩国、哈萨克斯坦、 马来西亚和突尼斯面临25%的关税税率。同时签署行政命令，延长"对等关税"暂缓期，将实施时间从7月9日推迟到 8月1日。财政部长贝森特表示，已经有很多贸易对手改变了在谈判方面的态度，预计本周将公布多项贸易协议。 贝森特称，"我们将在未来48小时内发布几项公告。" 沪指震荡。现货市场，A股三大指数走势分化，上证指数涨0.02%收于3473.13点，创业板指跌1.21%。行业方面， 板块指数涨跌互现，综合、公用事业、房地产、轻工制造行业涨幅居前，煤炭、医药生物、通信行业跌幅居前。 当日沪深两市成交金额继续回落至1.2万亿元。海外市场，美国三 ...

1）特朗普心中可能有一个综合税率底线。4 月上旬特朗普一系列关税政 策变化表明 10%的全球税率可能是当时心中的底线，该底线与贸易平衡有 关，但更多是为了弥补财政收入。4-6 月美国关税收入超 600 亿美元，而 1-3 月仅 288 亿美元，若按 4-6 月线性外推美国今年全年关税收入可能在 2000~3000 亿美元。但 7 月 4 日通过的 OBBBA 给出"10 年 3.4 万亿美 元、26-28 年 1.6 万亿美元"基础赤字需求，对关税维持财政运转提出更 高要求，10%底线关税税率可能会适度上调。 2）关税既是目的也是手段，贸易平衡和保护特定产业两手都要抓。本次 对等关税独立于行业关税，232 调查下的多数行业要么是钢铝、汽车等基 础行业（稳就业、票仓），要么是半导体、药品、关键矿物等重要行业 （产业链安全、制造业回流），从过去几轮行业关税实施情况看，下调概 率较小且只可能对部分盟友国或贸易协定国家给予优惠，表明保护特定产 业优先级很高。 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 07 月 08 日 关税新阶段 —7 月 7 日美国新关税政策点评 频率：每月 事件：当地时间 7 月 7 日，特 ...

Group 1 - India has responded decisively to the U.S. tariffs on its auto parts and steel by imposing retaliatory tariffs worth $725 million on specific U.S. goods, citing violations of WTO rules [3] - The Indian government recognizes that its exports to the U.S. account for only about 18% of its total exports, providing a buffer against U.S. pressure [5] - India's domestic market strength is a crucial factor in its strategy, as it seeks to assert its independence and not be seen as an economic subordinate to the U.S. [5] Group 2 - Modi's government is strategically repositioning India on the global stage by actively participating in the BRICS summit, aiming to take on the role of a representative for the Global South [7] - At the BRICS summit, India supported reforms to the International Monetary Fund and challenged the dominance of the U.S. dollar, indicating a significant shift in its foreign policy [9] - The actions taken by India reflect a desire for a multipolar world and a rejection of being a pawn in the geopolitical game dominated by major powers [11]

新华社北京7月8日电 美国总统特朗普7日表示，将从8月1日起分别对来自日本、韩国等14个国家的 进口产品征收25%至40%不等的关税。但他当天晚些时候说，这一期限并非"百分百确定"。日本、韩 国、南非等国相继作出回应，称关税"令人遗憾""不合理"，并表示将在期限内继续与美方谈判。 "非常遗憾""不合理" 日本政府8日在首相官邸召开综合对策总部会议。日本首相石破茂在会上就美国再度提高关税表 示"非常遗憾"，已指示相关阁僚在8月1日之前继续谈判，寻求既维护日本国家利益又能实现双赢的协 议。 石破茂说，日本政府在未来的谈判中捍卫国家利益的立场不会动摇，"我们将继续与美国进行谈 判，在维护国家利益的同时，探索达成互利协议的可能性"。 谈及日美此前举行多轮谈判仍未能达成协议，石破茂表示，"日本政府避免轻易妥协，该要求的必 须要求，该保护的必须保护，持续进行了强硬磋商。" 韩国产业通商资源部8日发表声明说，新政府上台后，虽在短时间内根据国家利益优先原则与美方 进行了密集谈判，但仍不足以就所有议题达成共识。韩方将在新关税税率生效前加速谈判，以取得互惠 协商成果。 韩国总统办公室说，国家安保室室长魏圣洛7日在华盛顿与美国国务 ...

Group 1 - The EU is preparing to make concessions to the US regarding tariffs, indicating a potential compromise in trade negotiations [1][2] - Currently, the US imposes a 50% tariff on EU steel and aluminum products, a 25% tariff on automobiles, and a 10% baseline tariff on nearly all other goods [2] - The EU has delayed its retaliatory measures, which would impose a 50% tariff on $210 billion worth of US imports, to allow time for trade negotiations [2] Group 2 - The US government has announced plans to impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from several countries, including Japan and South Korea, starting August 1 [3] - The White House has extended the implementation period for "reciprocal tariffs" by 90 days, pushing the start date from July 9 to August 1 [3] - Economic uncertainty is heightened as stakeholders are confused about the US's commitment to these tariffs and their potential impact on ongoing trade negotiations [3]