Tariff Changes - On July 7, Trump announced an increase in tariffs for 14 countries, effective August 1, with rates close to the reciprocal tariffs from April[2] - As of May, the average tariff rate in the U.S. was 7.4%, with specific rates of 38.6% on China, 9.3% on Japan, and 6.2% on the UK[3] - If all tariffs take effect on August 1, the simple average tariff rate for the 14 countries will rise to 29%, only 4 percentage points lower than the initial reciprocal tariff rate of 33%[5] Trade Negotiations - U.S.-Japan trade talks are at an impasse, particularly over auto tariffs, with Japan seeking to eliminate a 25% tariff[4] - The EU has proposed a retaliatory tariff plan of €210 billion if no agreement is reached by July 14, while the U.S. insists on a 25% auto tariff[4] - The U.S. and Mexico are nearing an agreement to eliminate steel and aluminum tariffs, with negotiations ongoing[4] Economic Implications - The U.S. aims to achieve three goals through tariffs: industrial protection, reducing trade deficits, and leveraging diplomacy, which may create internal conflicts[4] - The trade deficit remains a key consideration for tariff levels, with around 100 countries facing a 10% tariff, accounting for about 5% of the U.S. trade deficit[5] - The U.S. economy shows signs of slowing, with unemployment potentially rising to 4.4-4.6%, necessitating close monitoring of tariff impacts[5] Risks - Potential escalation of geopolitical conflicts could disrupt global economic stability and inflation control efforts[7] - There is a risk of the U.S. economy slowing more than expected, particularly in employment and consumer spending[7] - The Federal Reserve may adopt a more hawkish stance if inflation remains resilient, affecting future interest rate decisions[7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the impact of U.S. trade policies, particularly the proposed tariffs by President Trump on Japan and other trade partners, which have led to fluctuations in currency exchange rates, particularly the USD/JPY [1][2] - Following Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on Japan and other countries, the USD/JPY exchange rate rose to its highest point in over two weeks, indicating market reactions to trade tensions [1] - The ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan are at an impasse, primarily due to Japan's reluctance to compromise on rice market protection, which is affecting the value of the yen [2] Group 2 - The Euro is holding steady against the dollar as the market speculates on the possibility of the EU receiving exemptions from U.S. tariffs, which could influence currency valuations [2] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates twice before the end of the year, while the European Central Bank is only expected to lower rates once, affecting the relative strength of the euro against the dollar [3]

在周二超过1%的下跌后，金价在周三的亚洲交易中继续承受损失，未能从中国6月份的混合通胀数据中找到太多灵感。 周三数据显示，中国6月份的年消费者物价指数（CPI）上涨1%，而5月份下降0.1%。与此同时，国家的 生产者物价指数（PPI）在6月份同比下降3.6%，而 预期为-3.2%，前值为-3.3%。 投资者继续消化美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的关税谈判，关于可能的美国贸易协议的乐观情绪为 美元（USD）提供了一些支撑，限制了黄金价格的反弹尝试。 特朗普将"对等关税"的最后期限延长至8月1日，给予一些美国贸易伙伴更多的时间进行贸易谈判并达成协议。这一叙述继续推动美元上涨，损害了以美元计 价的金价。 今日Ultima Markets为您带来了 2025年7月9日的黄金深入分析。 · 金价在周三早盘舔舐伤口，突破区间向下。 · 贸易协议的乐观情绪和美联储预期的鹰派转变继续对无收益的金价施加压力。 · 金价在周二收于50日均线下方，日线RSI呈看跌状态。 金价在周三早盘徘徊于3300美元，舔舐伤口。交易者在等待新的贸易更新和美国联邦储备委员会（美联储）6月政策会议的会议纪要，以获取新的指引，因 而不愿意对这块贵金属进行新的 ...

Group 1: Tariff Adjustments Overview - Trump's recent reciprocal tariff adjustments categorize countries into three groups based on economic size and negotiation progress[1] - Major economies like China, the UK, India, and the EU saw no new tariff changes, indicating a potential return to rationality in Trump's tariff policy[1] - Japan and South Korea are under pressure for tariff adjustments due to slow negotiation progress and high geopolitical reliance on the US[1] Group 2: Specific Tariff Changes - 14 countries received updated tariff rates, with Japan and South Korea facing potential increases while countries like Cambodia saw reductions of up to 13%[2][3] - The new tariff rates for 11 of the 14 countries are whole numbers, suggesting a degree of subjectivity in the adjustments[3] - The deadline for tariff exemptions for countries other than China has been extended to August 1, 2025, while China's exemption remains valid until August 12, 2025[2][4] Group 3: Negotiation Dynamics - The adjustments appear to be more about leveraging negotiations rather than substantial tariff increases, as indicated by Trump's willingness to reconsider if countries express a desire to negotiate differently[10] - The focus on East Asian and Southeast Asian countries suggests ongoing strategic considerations in US-China relations, with Japan and South Korea as key negotiation points[11]

情增加，不过现货升水维持400元/吨，国内库存小幅增加。而海外延续去库，LME注销仓单增加。技术面 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 ，持仓增量空头增强，关注MA60支撑，重回前期震荡区间。操作上，建议暂时观望，参考26.0-26.8。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | | | 沪锡产业日报 2025-07-09 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 262890 | -2590 LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 33320 | 60 | | | 8月-9月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -30 | 70 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 26633 | 388 | | ...

Tariff Overview - As of May, the average tariff rate in the U.S. is 7.4%, with specific rates of 38.6% on China, 9.3% on Japan, and 6.2% on the UK[2] - The new tariffs on 14 countries will take effect on August 1, with an expected average tariff rate of 29%, only 4 percentage points lower than the initial rate of 33% set on April 2[5][10] Trade Negotiations - U.S.-Japan trade talks are at an impasse, particularly over auto tariffs, with Japan seeking to eliminate a 25% tariff[3] - The U.S. and Mexico are nearing an agreement to eliminate steel and aluminum tariffs, while negotiations with Canada are ongoing with a deadline set for July 21[3] Tariff Strategy - Trump is shifting to a "discriminatory tariff" framework, potentially grouping countries for tariff adjustments based on trade deficits and negotiation outcomes[2][4] - Approximately 100 countries with small trade surpluses with the U.S. may face a 10% tariff, while 18 countries could see tariffs ranging from 20% to 70% depending on negotiations[4] Economic Impact - The tariffs are expected to have significant effects on the U.S. economy, with concerns about rising unemployment rates projected to reach 4.4-4.6%[5] - The structural slowdown in the U.S. economy remains a concern despite recent positive non-farm payroll data[5] Risk Factors - Potential escalation of geopolitical conflicts could disrupt global economic stability and inflation control efforts[12] - A sharper-than-expected slowdown in the U.S. economy and a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve could impact future monetary policy[12]

Core Viewpoint - India, traditionally cautious in its diplomatic strategies, has unexpectedly chosen to confront the United States amidst the backdrop of Trump's impending "reciprocal tariffs" policy, signaling a significant shift in its approach to U.S. relations [1][3][5]. Group 1: India-U.S. Trade Relations - India has been under pressure from the Trump administration to lower tariffs on U.S. goods, especially as the U.S. has become one of India's largest trading partners [5][7]. - Despite a history of friendly relations, the U.S. demands, particularly regarding agricultural products, have led to a stalemate, with India unwilling to compromise on its agricultural market [8][10]. - On July 4, India announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods worth approximately $725 million, marking a public counteraction against U.S. trade strategies [11]. Group 2: Diplomatic Maneuvers - India's stance at the BRICS summit has shifted, moving from a supportive role of U.S. interests to a more confrontational position, indicating a strategic pivot in its international relations [12][15]. - India is also seeking to undermine U.S. influence on the global stage by collaborating with other international organizations and advocating for reforms in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) [13][15]. Group 3: Domestic Considerations - The Indian government's response to U.S. demands is influenced by domestic political factors, particularly the religious and cultural implications of agricultural policies, which are critical to Prime Minister Modi's political standing [17][19]. - Modi's firm stance on agricultural market control reflects the need to maintain support from significant voter demographics, particularly those influenced by Hindu religious beliefs [17][19]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The ongoing trade tensions between India and the U.S. could have wider repercussions, potentially affecting U.S. trade strategies and its broader geopolitical objectives, including its approach to China [19][20]. - India's awareness of China's trade negotiations with the U.S. has prompted it to adopt a more assertive position, as it seeks to enhance its own standing on the global economic stage [20].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has announced an increase in tariffs on imports from 14 countries, with Japan being the first affected, leading to a stalemate in U.S.-Japan tariff negotiations [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Negotiations - Japan has been actively negotiating with the U.S. since April, but despite seven rounds of talks, no substantial progress has been made [2][3]. - The main reason for the deadlock is the significant gap in demands between Japan and the U.S., with Japan seeking the removal of "reciprocal tariffs" and linking them to discussions on auto tariffs and steel/aluminum tariffs [2][3]. - The U.S. has rejected Japan's requests and pressured Japan to increase imports of U.S. cars and rice while reducing the trade deficit [2][3]. Group 2: Negotiation Dynamics - The complexity of the U.S. negotiation team, which includes multiple representatives from different departments, has contributed to the slow progress of talks, making it difficult for Japan to identify a clear point of contact [3][4]. - Japan has maintained a firm stance on auto tariffs, which are crucial to its economy, and has not used them as bargaining chips in negotiations [4][5]. Group 3: Political Context - The upcoming Japanese Senate elections on July 20 are influencing the government's approach, as Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's administration faces low approval ratings and potential loss of seats [5][6]. - Public sentiment in Japan has shifted against the U.S., with a majority of citizens supporting a firm stance rather than rushing to reach an agreement [6][7]. Group 4: Future Implications - The outcome of the Senate elections will directly impact the future of U.S.-Japan tariff negotiations, with a potential acceleration of talks if the ruling coalition retains a majority [6][7]. - The final agreement is expected to reflect the unequal nature of the U.S.-Japan alliance, suggesting that the terms will not be equitable [7].

Group 1 - The EU is preparing to sign a temporary "framework" agreement with the US, setting the tariff rate at 10%, which is equal to the baseline tariff imposed on the UK [1] - The US has proposed a draft agreement that offers limited tariff exemptions only for specific sectors like aircraft and spirits, while key industries such as automotive and pharmaceuticals receive no exemptions [2] - The EU is expected to face challenges in negotiations, as it is unlikely to achieve the same tariff reductions as the UK, particularly in steel and automotive sectors [2][3] Group 2 - The EU's negotiation strategy has faced criticism from businesses and some European countries, with calls for a quicker agreement [3] - In contrast, the UK has successfully negotiated a trade agreement with the US, reducing tariffs on automotive imports and securing zero tariffs on steel and aluminum products [4] - The UK’s approach has been characterized as a straightforward business transaction, allowing for flexibility and understanding of US objectives [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core View - The short - term outlook for EUA is bullish, while the medium - term is expected to be volatile, with a price range of €63 - 76 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - EUA auction price is 70.34 euros/ton, down 0.72%, and the bid - cover ratio is 1.46; EUA futures settlement price is 71.2 euros/ton, down 0.66%, with 1.76 ten - thousand lots traded, up 0.47 [2] - On July 7, 2025, EUA auction volume was 22,829 tons, auction price was 70.34 euros/ton, auction revenue was 324.55 million euros, and CBAM certificate price was 71.25 euros/ton [3] - From July 4 to July 7, 2025, EUA futures settlement price decreased from 71.67 to 71.20 euros/ton, down 0.66%; futures trading volume increased from 1.29 to 1.76 ten - thousand lots, up 0.47; futures open interest remained unchanged [4] - From July 4 to July 7, 2025, EUA spot settlement price decreased from 70.89 to 70.44 euros/ton, down 0.63%; spot trading volume increased from 2283 to 3352 lots; container shipping carbon cost increased from 11.97 to 12.04 dollars/TEU, and the proportion of freight increased from 0.57% to 0.57% [4] Strategy - The short - term strategy for EUA is bullish, and the medium - term is volatile, with a price range of €63 - 76 [2] Core Logic - Bullish factor: Trump signed an executive order to extend the suspension period of the "reciprocal tariff" from July 9 to August 1 [2] - Bearish factors: At the beginning of the week, the temperature in Central and Western Europe turned cooler, and the supply of wind and solar energy was sufficient, reducing the residual load; Sino - European trade frictions intensified [2]