中金指，公司于1月发布全球首个原生AI全动力汽车平台归元平台，可兼容不同动力和车型，核心部件 和系统能力再提升，降本持续推进，认为有望支持2026年公司加速新能源全新车型推出。此外，WEY 品牌高端化成效显著，其中高山自去年10月起连续3个月交付破万辆，接棒构建高端化第二增长曲线。 公司在海外市场积淀深厚，中金认为公司仍可受益于多区域拓展机遇。 考虑到报废税返还节奏、年终奖计提等影响，中金下调公司2025、2026盈利预测32%、20%至99亿、 140亿元，首次引入2027年盈利预测170亿元。 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，维持长城汽车(02333)"跑赢行业"评级，当前股价分别对应长汽 (601633.SH)A股2026年12.6倍、H股7.3倍市盈率；下调A股目标价20%至24.8元，下调H股目标价20%至 18港元，分别对应2026财年15倍、10倍市盈率，较当前股价有20%、36%上行空间。 长城汽车公布业绩快报，去年收入2,227.9亿元人民币(下同)，同比增10.2%；归母净利99.1亿元，同比跌 21.9%。去年末季收入692.1亿元，同比增15.5%、按季增13%；归母净利12.8亿 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, the Shanghai aluminum futures showed an upward trend with significant fluctuations, driven by macro - factors and capital resonance. The alumina futures had a wide - range volatile trend affected by the chemical sector and supply - side production cuts. The cast aluminum alloy futures moved in tandem with Shanghai aluminum [6][9][12]. - In 2025, the alumina supply was loose, and it is expected to remain so in 2026. The electrolytic aluminum supply - demand situation worsened in 2025 but is expected to shift from oversupply to undersupply in 2026. The recycled aluminum alloy maintained a balanced pattern in 2025 and is expected to continue a tight - balance situation in 2026 [95][96]. - In February 2026, the aluminum price is expected to decline first and then rise, with the Shanghai aluminum price mainly ranging from 22,000 to 25,000. Alumina will continue to bottom - out, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies, with the price mainly ranging from 2,200 to 2,900. The cast aluminum alloy price will be mainly in the range of 21,000 - 24,000 [100]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Aluminum**: Since January, the Shanghai aluminum futures oscillated upward, with several sharp increases followed by consolidation, and a significant decline on the last trading day of the month affected by the precious metals market. Macro - factors and capital resonance were the main driving forces [6]. - **Alumina**: Since January, the alumina futures first rose, then fell, and then rebounded, showing a wide - range volatile trend, influenced by the active chemical sector and minor supply - side production cuts [9]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Since its listing in June, the cast aluminum alloy futures showed an oscillating upward trend, generally in sync with the Shanghai aluminum futures [12]. 3.2 Upstream of the Industrial Chain - **Bauxite**: In 2025, China's bauxite imports increased by 17.1% year - on - year, with imports from Guinea up 38%. The domestic bauxite production decreased by 7.86% year - on - year. The external dependence on bauxite is expected to exceed 75% in 2026 [17]. - **Alumina**: In 2025, China's alumina exports increased by 42.7% year - on - year, and imports in November increased by 134.11% year - on - year. The production increased, and with new capacity coming online, it is expected to grow by about 5% in 2026. As of January 16, 2026, the total alumina inventory increased by 36.5% compared with the same period in 2025 [21][23][27]. 3.3 Middle - stream of the Industrial Chain - **Primary Aluminum Import**: In November 2025, domestic primary aluminum imports decreased by 40.8% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year. From 2024 to now, imports have increased significantly, and it is expected to remain at a high level in the future [32]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Capacity**: The total electrolytic aluminum capacity is stable with a slight increase. The in - production capacity has been increasing since 2024. In 2025, it maintained a high - level operation. In 2026, 1.78 million tons of capacity is planned to be cut, and 2.414 million tons of new capacity is to be released [36]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In December 2025, electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3% year - on - year, and the annual production increased by 2.4% year - on - year. In December, the downstream开工率 decreased, and the aluminum - water ratio dropped [39]. - **Aluminum Plant Profits**: Since 2025, aluminum plant profits have increased significantly. As of January 19, 2026, the immediate profit of self - power - supplied aluminum plants and grid - powered aluminum plants has exceeded the 2023 - 2024 level [43]. - **Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory**: The annual inventory level has been decreasing in recent years. In 2026, it is expected to have two periods of inventory accumulation during the off - season, with the annual high point after the Spring Festival [46]. 3.4 Downstream of the Industrial Chain - **Aluminum Processing Industry**: Since 2023, the aluminum processing industry has had a low operating rate. Currently, it is in the off - season, and the operating rate of each segment has decreased month - on - month [52]. - **Aluminum Alloy Import and Export**: In November 2025, the import of unforged aluminum alloy decreased by 28.2% year - on - year and 4.1% month - on - month, while the export increased by 51.6% year - on - year and decreased by 1.1% month - on - month [55]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy Production**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy has been increasing year by year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative production increased by 23.55% year - on - year [59]. - **Aluminum Alloy Product Inventory**: Since 2025, the aluminum alloy ingot inventory has been accumulating, especially during the off - season, and it is expected to continue rising in the short term [62]. - **Aluminum Product Export**: In 2025, the cumulative export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 8.0% year - on - year. Due to trade barriers, it is expected to continue to decline in 2026 [66]. 3.5 Terminal of the Industrial Chain - **Real Estate Industry**: In 2025, the real estate market was in a deep adjustment period, with investment, new construction, and sales all declining. It is expected to take time to recover [72][75]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: In 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly. However, the growth rate is expected to slow down to 15 - 20% in 2026 [78]. - **Three Major Home Appliances**: In 2025, the production of three major home appliances showed a slow - down in growth. It is expected to maintain positive growth in 2026 with policy support [82]. - **Power Grid Investment**: In 2025, the power grid investment increased by 5.93% year - on - year. In 2026, the UHV construction is expected to continue to develop rapidly [85]. - **Photovoltaic Industry**: In 2025, the photovoltaic industry had a high - speed development, but there was over - capacity. In 2026, the industry will face resource integration, and the global new photovoltaic installation is expected to reach 665GW [89]. - **Recycled Aluminum Import**: In 2025, the import of scrap aluminum increased significantly. It is expected that the tight supply of scrap aluminum will continue [92].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢周报（1.26-1.30） 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 观点和策略 2 基本面 3 技术分析 4 产业链梳理总结 一、观点和策略 沪镍观点：本周镍价震荡走弱，周五更是随着金银铜等大幅回落，现货整体成交一般。供 应方面，前期减产的产能开始恢复生产，进口货源陆续到货，印尼寒锐镍板也有大量提供， 市场供应充足。产业链上，镍矿看涨情绪较浓重，菲律宾与印尼都有强支撑。镍铁价格继 续上涨，成本线上升。不锈钢库存开始回升，要注意库存回升之后不锈钢价格或有反转。 精炼镍库存持续高位，过剩格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提振有限。 1、产业链周度价格变化 2、镍矿市场状况分析 3、电解镍市场状况分析 4、镍铁市场状况分析 5、不锈钢市场状况分析 6、新能源汽车产销情 ...

Core Insights - The new energy vehicle market in China is experiencing a mixed performance, with some companies showing year-on-year growth while facing month-on-month declines [1][2][3] - The sales data for January indicates a challenging start to the year, influenced by structural adjustments and consumer sentiment [2][4] Group 1: Sales Performance - BYD reported January sales of 210,051 units, a year-on-year decline of 30.11% [1] - Hongmeng Zhixing achieved 57,915 deliveries in January, marking a year-on-year increase of 65.6% and becoming the only new force to exceed 50,000 monthly sales [1] - NIO delivered 27,182 vehicles in January, a significant year-on-year increase of 96.1% [1] - Li Auto faced substantial pressure with declines in both year-on-year and month-on-month sales [1][3] - Xiaomi's performance was notable, with a strong delivery figure in January, and plans for new models launching in April [1][2] Group 2: Market Trends - The overall retail volume of passenger vehicles in China from January 1-18 saw a year-on-year decline of 28% and a month-on-month drop of 37% [2] - The new energy vehicle market also faced challenges, with a year-on-year decline of 16% and a month-on-month drop of 52% [2] - The end of the vehicle purchase tax exemption policy by the end of 2025 and the impact of year-end promotions have led to a demand recovery phase in early 2026 [2] Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Companies are shifting from price wars to innovative financing solutions, with Tesla leading the way by introducing long-term low-interest financing options [7] - Xiaomi, Li Auto, and NIO have followed suit with similar financing plans, aiming to attract consumers without direct price cuts [7] - Li Auto is also exploring deeper strategic adjustments, including potential entry into the AI and humanoid robot sectors [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall sales targets for major automakers in 2026 are ambitious, with a combined target of at least 24.55 million units, representing 71.37% of last year's total sales [6] - Analysts predict a growth rate of around 10% for new energy vehicle retail volumes in 2026, despite current market challenges [6][8] - The competition among automakers is expected to shift towards new model launches and enhancing user experience in the second quarter of 2026 [8]

2月1日晚上，小米创办人，董事长兼 CEO 雷军在北京亦庄举行科普直播，揭秘新一代SU7的研发过程，其 中回应了小米汽车1月交付量环比下降的质疑。 当日上午，小米汽车官方微博公布的数据显示，2026年1月交付量超过3.9万辆。相较于2025年12月超5万辆 的历史新高，环比下滑超过20%。而在2025年12月，小米汽车交付量突破5万辆，创下品牌史上新高。此数 据公布后，部分网友和媒体进行了负面解读，甚至出现"拍手叫好"的情况。 （图片来源：小米汽车） | 产业链环节 | | 化 | | --- | --- | --- | | 智能电动汽车公司 | | 蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车 | | 电动化系统 | 电池 | 珠海冠宇,中航理电、赣锋锂电、蜂巢能源、卫营新能源 | | 电影 | | 酷科电子、奥易克斯、武汉嘉晨电子、裔标智能科技、中驱电机、苏州智绿科技、盈 | | | | 智热管理、爱磁科技、苏州海之博电子 | | 其他 | | 宁波鼎声微电子、湖南法恩菜特新能源、北京智同精密传动、深圳市大族精密传动、 江苏碳什科技 | | 智能驾驶系 | 解决方案 | Momenta、智行者、纵目科技、DeepMotion 深动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The research team from the Beijing Low Carbon Clean Energy Research Institute of the State Energy Group has developed a high-capacity battery material using coal direct liquefaction pitch, which significantly enhances lithium storage capacity and addresses key technical bottlenecks in silicon-based materials [1] Group 1: Research and Development - The new battery material combines oxidized silicon, silicate, graphene, and amorphous carbon to improve lithium storage capacity [1] - The team proposed a solution to the issues of large volume expansion, low initial efficiency, and poor conductivity of silicon-based anodes by constructing a "carbon-carbon network" using coal direct liquefaction pitch and graphene [1] - The in-situ generation of highly active lithium disilicate on the surface of oxidized silicon, combined with the high conductivity and structural toughness of the "carbon-carbon network," enhances initial coulombic efficiency [1] Group 2: Performance Improvements - The "carbon-carbon network" acts as an "elastic armor," effectively buffering the volume expansion during the charge and discharge processes of oxidized silicon, thus suppressing electrode pulverization [1] - The electrode thickness expansion rate was reduced from 109% to 41%, with cycling stability improved nearly ninefold and charging speed increased by three times [1] Group 3: Applications and Implications - This research provides a key material foundation for the development of high energy density, long-life lithium-ion batteries for applications in new energy vehicles, high-end electronic devices, and large-scale energy storage [1] - The mechanistic study reveals the synergistic enhancement mechanism among multiple components, offering important references for the rational design of future battery materials [1]

Core Insights - NIO reported a strong sales performance with 27,182 vehicles delivered in January 2026, marking a year-on-year growth of 96.1% [2] - The total cumulative deliveries have surpassed 1 million units, reaching 1,024,774 vehicles, solidifying NIO's position in the high-end electric vehicle market [2] - The new ES8 model celebrated its 60,000th owner within just 134 days of launch, indicating robust demand for large electric SUVs [2] Group 1: Sales Performance - NIO delivered 27,182 vehicles in January 2026, achieving a remarkable year-on-year growth of 96.1% [2] - The cumulative delivery milestone of 1,024,774 vehicles has been reached, officially crossing the 1 million mark [2] - The new ES8 model reached 60,000 deliveries in only 134 days, showcasing strong market demand [2] Group 2: Product and Technology - NIO continues to lead in technology upgrades with the rollout of the latest 1.4.0 version of its intelligent system across multiple models [2] - The new features include enhanced world model-assisted driving capabilities, promising a smarter and safer driving experience [2] Group 3: Financial and Service Initiatives - NIO introduced attractive financing options with a 7-year low-interest purchase plan, offering rates as low as 0.49% [3] - The company announced that its global battery swap network has surpassed 99 million swaps, expected to reach 100 million soon, reflecting user acceptance of the battery swap model [3]

Macroeconomic Policy - The Ministry of Commerce announced that from 2024 to 2025, China aims to achieve 18.3 million vehicle trade-ins, with nearly 60% being new energy vehicles [2] - A total of 17.67 million scrapped vehicles will be recycled nationwide, with an annual growth rate of 45.8% [2] - The second-hand vehicle transaction volume is projected to reach 39.686 million [2] Industry Trends - By 2025, China's second-hand vehicle transaction volume is expected to exceed 20 million for the first time, reaching 20.108 million, with a year-on-year growth of 2.52% [15] - In 2025, total vehicle sales are projected to be 34.4 million, with new energy vehicles surpassing 16 million, marking a year-on-year growth of 29% [17] - The domestic power battery installation volume is expected to reach 769.7 GWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 40.4% [19] - The total number of electric vehicle charging infrastructure units is projected to exceed 20 million by the end of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 49.7% [21] - By 2025, the total number of motor vehicles in China is expected to reach 469 million, with 43.97 million being new energy vehicles, accounting for 12.01% of the total [23] International Developments - Toyota has maintained its position as the world's largest automaker for six consecutive years, with a total sales volume of 11.322 million vehicles in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [26] - The European automotive parts industry announced layoffs of over 100,000 employees over two years, reflecting the challenges of transitioning to electric vehicles [28] - Canada will allow an annual quota of 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to enter its market with a reduced tariff of 6.1% [30] - Germany has announced a new electric vehicle subsidy program with a budget of €3 billion, aimed at supporting the purchase of approximately 800,000 new vehicles [32] Corporate Dynamics - GAC Group and Huawei signed a comprehensive cooperation framework agreement to jointly develop smart mobility solutions [39] - Lixun Precision terminated its acquisition of assets from Wentai Technology in India due to compliance and delivery risks [41] - Aito aims to achieve an average annual sales target of 500,000 vehicles over the next two years [43] - Geely Holdings aims to exceed 6.5 million global sales by 2030, with 75% of sales coming from new energy vehicles [45] - Chery has maintained its position as the top exporter of Chinese passenger vehicles for 23 consecutive years, with over 1.34 million vehicles exported in 2025 [49] - Lantu Automotive has received approval for its listing in Hong Kong, marking a significant milestone for the company [51]

根据2026年2月1-2日各大车企发布的最新数据，2026年1月中国汽车市场销量排行如下： 车企集团销量排行（TOP 5） | 排名 | 车企集团 | 1月销量 | 同比变化 | 主要亮点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 吉利汽车集团 | 270,167辆 | +1% | 海外出口60,506辆，同比翻倍；新能源124,252辆 | | 2 | 比亚迪 | 210,051辆 | -30.11% | 出口100,482辆，同比+51.47%，蝉联新能源冠军 | | 3 | 奇瑞集团 | 200,269辆 | -10.72% | 出口11.96万辆，同比+48.1%，出口占比近60% | | 4 | 广汽集团 | 116,622辆 | +18.47% | 自主品牌超4.9万辆，同比+87.58% | | 5 | 长城汽车 | 90,312辆 | +11.59% | 海外销量40,278辆，同比+43.77% | | | 🚀 造车新势力销量排行（TOP 10） | | | | 排名 品牌 1月销量 同比变化 备注 1 问界（AITO） 40,016辆 +83% 鸿蒙智 ...

长城汽车 20260130 摘要 长安汽车 2025 年销量达 132.4 万辆，新能源渗透率 51.5%，营收 2,227.9 亿元，同比增长 10.2%，单车收入 16.83 万元，含税指导价 20 万元以上车型销售 53.4 万台，品牌向上战略成效显著。 国内市场销量 81.8 万辆，同比增长 4.8%；海外市场销量 50.6 万辆， 同比增长 11.7%，占比超 38%，12 月海外销量超 5.7 万台，目标 2026 年挑战 60 万台，全球化战略稳步推进。 2025 年第四季度营收 692.08 亿元，同比增 15.46%，单车收入 17.29 万元，创单季度营收新高；净利润 12.77 亿元，环比下降 44.4%，主要因年终奖计提影响。 公司确立混动、纯电、性能三轨并行技术路线，布局电池、电驱等核心 零部件，第四季度新能源车型销量 12.52 万台，同比增 13%，环比增 6%，技术创新驱动增长。 推进"万级大量"品牌战略，全球用户超 1,600 万，海外渠道超 1,500 家，总销量超 200 万台，深耕澳洲、中东等市场，并通过巴西工厂拓展 南美市场，全球化布局深化。 Q&A 长安汽车 202 ...