Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market saw a comprehensive rise in interest rate bonds, with long-term bonds outperforming short-term ones. The stock market, represented by the Shanghai Composite Index, broke through resistance levels, indicating a potential upward trend. However, the weak fundamentals may continue to support the bond market, leading to high-level fluctuations in the bond market moving forward [19][22]. Group 2: A-Share Market - The A-share market experienced a day of volatility, with the ChiNext Index dropping over 1%. The total trading volume was 1.4 trillion, a decrease of 0.09 trillion from the previous day. A total of 1,856 stocks rose while 3,103 stocks fell. The Shanghai Composite Index technically broke through the March high, opening up further upward potential. Three key observation points are highlighted to assess market strength: the June 23 low as a support level, the sustainability of trading volume, and the stability of the RMB exchange rate [2][22][23]. Group 3: U.S. Stock Market - The Dow Jones Index rose by 0.91%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices fell by 0.82% and 0.11%, respectively. Speculative sentiment is returning, and the U.S. stock market is expected to challenge new highs. The reduction in geopolitical risks has significantly lowered the risks associated with rising oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields. Upcoming tax cuts and regulatory relaxations are anticipated to support U.S. stock earnings and upward expectations [3][27][28]. Group 4: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1672, an increase of 47 basis points from the previous close. The long-term trend indicates a bearish outlook for the USD, with strong support for the offshore RMB around 7.1 [31][32]. Group 5: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index increased by 1.16%, with construction materials, coal, and ferroalloy sectors leading the gains, while corn saw declines. The volatility of oil and related products has significantly decreased from high levels. The overall trend in the commodity market remains bearish, but recent rebounds from historical lows in domestic pricing suggest a potential for bullish strategies, especially for investors with appropriate stop-loss measures [4][36][37].

Group 1: Steel Industry Performance - The steel sector experienced significant gains, with the steel index rising by 3.74% to 2231.23 points [2] - Notable stocks included 盛德鑫泰, which surged by 17%, and 重庆钢铁, 柳钢股份, and others reaching their daily limit [3] - The market saw a strong correlation between the A-share market and commodity markets, with polysilicon and glass futures leading the gains [1] Group 2: Environmental Regulations Impact - Increased environmental restrictions in Tangshan are expected to affect steel production, with about half of the steel mills reporting notifications of production cuts [4] - The China Iron and Steel Association is set to hold a meeting to discuss the industry's progress and challenges, indicating a focus on future development strategies [4] Group 3: Marine Economy Development - The central government is promoting high-quality development of the marine economy, with policies encouraging social capital participation and innovation in marine technology [8] - The marine economy is expected to accelerate, supported by various regional policies aimed at optimizing and upgrading the marine industry structure [8] Group 4: Marine Economy Industry Chain - The marine economy industry chain is categorized into three levels: infrastructure, equipment technology, and resource development [9] - Key areas of focus include deep-sea technology, offshore wind power, and marine biological medicine, with significant investment opportunities identified [10]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

Core Insights - The domestic marine economy is entering a new phase of high-quality development, supported by significant policy backing and an enhanced strategic position. Recent government policies provide a solid legal foundation for macro guidance, strategic planning, and sustainable development of the marine economy, which is increasingly contributing to GDP, indicating strong resilience and broad prospects [3] - Deep-sea technology is accelerating as a new engine for economic growth under the context of new productive forces. Various national-level research projects are being implemented to promote the coordinated development of the entire industrial chain, including deep-sea exploration, resource development, and equipment manufacturing. China has achieved multiple technological breakthroughs in areas such as deep-sea drilling vessels and manned submersibles, laying the foundation for commercial development [3][25] - The shipbuilding and marine engineering equipment industry is a core force supporting the development of the marine economy and represents future investment opportunities. This industry, as a key component of high-end equipment manufacturing, is capital and technology-intensive, providing technical equipment for maritime transportation, marine resource development, and national defense construction [3][49] - The marine economy theme index has shown strong performance, with investment opportunities in deep-sea oil and gas and marine ecological services. As of July 1, 2025, the marine economy index and marine technology index increased by 9.3% and 13.7%, respectively, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the marine economy sector [3] - The marine economy's contribution to GDP has been steadily increasing, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6% over the past five years, outpacing overall GDP growth [9] Marine Economy Policy and Industry Context - In recent years, a series of policies have been introduced by national and local governments to promote marine economic development. The "14th Five-Year Plan" for marine economic development provides macro guidance and strategic planning, while the revised Marine Environmental Protection Law offers legal support for sustainable development [8] - The marine production value reached 10.54 trillion yuan in 2024, growing by 5.9% year-on-year, with the marine industry value added at 4.37 trillion yuan [8][24] Deep-Sea Technology Industry Chain - The deep-sea technology sector is supported by government initiatives, with significant breakthroughs in deep-sea exploration and resource development technologies. The market size for deep-sea technology is expected to reach 3.25 trillion yuan by 2025 [25][41] Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering Equipment Investment Insights - The shipbuilding and marine engineering equipment industry is crucial for providing technical equipment for maritime transportation and resource development. The industry encompasses upstream raw material suppliers, midstream equipment manufacturers, and downstream application markets [49][50] - The marine engineering equipment industry is experiencing growth opportunities due to the continuous development of marine economic strategies and global marine economic trends [49]

国债期货日报 2025/7/2 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完 整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否 符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 端在期货 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 57955 | 109.130 | 0.14% T主力成交量 | | 1131↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 45931 | 106.250 | 0.07% TF主力成交量 | | 1382↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.512 | 0.03% TS主力成交量 | 24944 | 34↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 121.180 | 0.4% TL主力成交量 ...

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（118）期 发布日期：2025-07-02 | | | | 商品指数每日市场跟踪 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观指标 | | 2025/7/2 08:00 | 2025/7/1 15:00 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | 道琼斯工业指数 | | 44494.94 | 44094.77 | 400.170 | 0.908 | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 20202.89 | 20369.73 | -166.840 | -0.819 | | 标普500 | | 6198.01 | 6204.95 | -6.940 | -0.112 | | 恒生指数 | | 24072.28 | 24284.15 | -211.870 | -0.872 | | SHIBOR隔夜 | | 1.37 | 1.42 | -0.055 | -3.868 | | 美元指数 | | 96.65 | 96.65 | 0.005 | 0.005 | | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | 7.16 | 7.16 | 0 | 0 | | 主力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a significant price increase due to production cuts driven by environmental regulations and government policies aimed at eliminating outdated capacity. This has led to a reduction in steel output expectations, particularly in Tangshan, where a 30% production cut has been mandated from July 4 to July 15. The market anticipates further impacts on steel production as a result of these measures [1][3]. Group 1: Steel Industry Insights - The recent meeting of the Financial and Economic Committee emphasized the need to push for the elimination of outdated production capacity, directly influencing the steel market [1]. - Tangshan steel mills have received directives for a 30% production cut, which is expected to significantly lower steel inventories and production levels [1]. - The China Iron and Steel Association reported that steel billet exports in the first four months of 2025 have already surpassed the total for 2024, prompting suggestions for export restrictions [1]. - A total of approximately 30 million tons of production cuts have been ordered for the year, coinciding with a seasonal demand lull, which has heightened market expectations for reduced steel output [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Longjiang Securities noted that administrative production cuts could act as a bullish option for the steel sector, particularly in July, which is traditionally a slow season for demand [3]. - The announcement of production cuts in the photovoltaic glass sector has also led to significant price increases in that market, indicating a broader trend of supply-side reforms impacting various sectors [3]. - The steel sector saw a strong rally in stock prices, with companies like Liugang and Chongqing Steel hitting their daily price limits amid these developments [9][10]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The overall A-share market experienced a decline, with major indices falling and a significant number of stocks trading lower, reflecting broader economic pressures [9]. - The government is expected to focus on structural adjustments across multiple industries, including steel, refining, and new energy sectors, as part of its economic strategy [7]. Group 4: Investment Trends - Institutional investors have begun to sell off some positions in response to the recent price increases in steel, indicating a cautious approach to the current market dynamics [1][4]. - The market's reaction to production cuts in both the steel and photovoltaic sectors suggests a growing trend towards supply-side management as a means to stabilize prices and manage excess capacity [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rapid development of China's deep-sea economy, projecting a national marine production value to exceed 10 trillion yuan in 2024, accounting for 7.8% of GDP, with a growth rate surpassing GDP by 0.9 percentage points [1][6]. Group 1: National Strategy and Policy Support - Deep-sea technology has been recognized as a strategic emerging industry, included in the 2025 government work report alongside commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy as new economic engines [3]. - The State Council issued a supplementary document for the "14th Five-Year" marine economic development plan, allocating significant funding to support deep-sea technology industrialization [6]. - Various coastal provinces have introduced policies to support marine economic development, indicating a regional competition to advance into the deep sea [6][7]. Group 2: Market Potential and Industry Growth - By 2030, the market size of core deep-sea technology segments is expected to reach 921.2 billion yuan, with potential for auxiliary maintenance services to push it into the trillion-yuan club [12]. - The global deep-sea mining market is projected to exceed 30 billion USD by 2030, with China holding a technological advantage and the most international exploration contracts [12]. - The deep-sea equipment manufacturing sector is anticipated to see an annual growth rate exceeding 12%, driven by the extreme conditions of deep-sea environments [12]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - China's deep-sea technology has reached the international first tier, with successful trials of the new generation of manned submersibles [9]. - The domestic production rate of high-end components for deep-sea equipment is currently below 65%, indicating significant opportunities for domestic manufacturers [9]. - Innovations in cross-disciplinary fields, such as underwater data centers and AI monitoring systems, are emerging as key areas of growth [9][14]. Group 4: Investment Trends and Capital Flow - The current stage of the deep-sea industry resembles the early days of the new energy sector, characterized by clear policies, technological breakthroughs, and defined application scenarios [16]. - Major investment firms are establishing specialized funds to capitalize on deep-sea projects, indicating a surge in interest and competition among investors [8][16]. - The valuation of companies with full deep-sea operational capabilities is rising, with significant interest from private equity in "hidden champions" within the sector [16].

Group 1: Marine Economy - The Central Financial Committee emphasized high-quality development of the marine economy, focusing on top-level design, policy support, and encouraging social capital participation [1] - Guangdong Province has implemented new regulations for high-quality marine economic development, while Shandong Province aims for marine specialty industries to grow significantly faster than GDP by 2027 [1] - The pharmaceutical value of marine biological resources is substantial, with new drug development opportunities expected to drive rapid growth in the marine biomedicine industry, particularly for new drugs based on marine active substances [1] Group 2: Photovoltaic Industry - Prices for silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery cells, and TopCon components are projected to decrease by 11.42%, 9.28%, 10.52%, and 4.22% respectively by 2025 [2] - BC batteries (bifacial batteries) gained attention at the SNEC exhibition and are seen as having the potential to challenge TopCon technology, although large-scale production has not yet been achieved [2] - TCL Photovoltaic Technology is exploring new growth points in the domestic market through an integrated solution of "photovoltaics + energy storage + charging piles + heat pumps," especially as costs decline [2] Group 3: Embodied Intelligence - The application of embodied intelligence has shown initial results, but experts indicate it is still in the exploratory stage and not yet at a mature industrial level [3] - Traditional industrial robots rely on manual programming, requiring long adjustments for product model changes, while embodied intelligence can significantly shorten this process and enhance production efficiency [3] - The lack of uniform hardware among different manufacturers complicates data sharing and interoperability, increasing the difficulty of industry standardization [3] Group 4: Semiconductor Industry - Despite short-term pressure on tech stocks, long-term investment in the semiconductor and chip sectors remains strong, with notable declines in stocks like Hengxuan Technology and Cambricon [4][5] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing consolidation, with increased support for mergers and acquisitions from national policies, exemplified by several high-profile acquisitions [4] - AI technology is expected to drive demand growth in AI servers, AI phones, and AIPC devices, forming a smart ecosystem centered around AI servers [4] Group 5: Innovative Pharmaceuticals - Guangdong Province has released its first batch of approved innovative drug and medical device products, including 107 items, with 10 cancer drugs making up about 22% of the total [5] - The approval of innovative drugs like Cardunilumab for cervical cancer treatment highlights the advancements in tumor immunotherapy and the capabilities of local companies [5] - Research teams from Sun Yat-sen University have successfully developed and commercialized innovative drugs, contributing to the international success of local pharmaceutical products [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for enhanced top-level design and increased policy support to catalyze the marine economy sector, with significant stock price increases observed in related companies [1][2] - The marine economy in China is projected to exceed 10 trillion yuan for the first time in 2024, reaching 10,543.8 billion yuan, representing a 5.9% increase from the previous year and accounting for 7.8% of the national GDP [3][5] - Recent policies have been frequently issued in the marine economy sector, with various provinces implementing measures to promote marine new energy, marine equipment, and marine biomedicine [4][5] Group 2 - The marine economy is characterized by a focus on deep-sea infrastructure and resource development, with key areas including shipbuilding, underwater robotics, and oil and gas extraction [2][5] - The marine economy is divided into deep-sea technology and marine consumption, with deep-sea technology encompassing advanced techniques for exploring and utilizing deep-sea resources [6] - The focus on high-end equipment manufacturing in the marine economy includes shipbuilding capabilities for LNG carriers and research vessels, as well as marine engineering equipment for deep-sea aquaculture and wind power installation [6][8]