机构：非农好于预期 逢低买入的势头可能会持续至关税暂停结束之前 金十数据5月2日讯，Northlight资产管理公司首席投资官Chris Zaccarelli表示，今天市场松了一口气，因 为就业数据好于预期。虽然对经济衰退的担忧仍在酝酿中，但逢低买入的势头可能会持续，至少会持续 到关税暂停结束之前。我们已经看到，如果特朗普政府继续实施其最初的关税计划，金融市场将如何反 应，因此，除非他们在7月的90天暂停期到期时采取不同的策略，否则我们将看到类似于4月第一周的市 场走势。如果特朗普政府关税政策进行调整，改变了最终目标以及对不合理的关税水平进行豁免，那么 实体经济可以重新调整，市场将从容不迫。但是，我们还没有走出困境。 ...

Core Insights - The non-farm payroll report indicates economic resilience rather than recession [1] - The labor market remains strong, but future economic outlook is uncertain [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to remain passive until there is significant weakness in the labor market [1] Economic Indicators - The employment report is characterized as a good one, showcasing resilience in the labor market [1] - Overall data from the week suggests a strong economic foundation for the U.S. in early April [1] - Trade policies may pose a risk to economic growth, warranting caution regarding future optimism [1]

Group 1: Protests and Economic Concerns - Protests erupted in major U.S. cities on May 1, with demonstrators expressing dissatisfaction with government policies and demanding a shift in funding priorities towards employment and education instead of foreign wars [1] - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce urged the Trump administration to implement a tariff exemption mechanism to prevent economic recession and protect small businesses from irreparable harm [2][3] Group 2: Tariff Impact on Small Businesses - The Chamber of Commerce represents over 3 million businesses and requested the government to eliminate tariffs on small importers and products that cannot be produced domestically [2] - The Chamber's CEO expressed concern that many small businesses would suffer irreparable damage if no action is taken soon [4] Group 3: Apple Inc. Financial Performance - Apple reported Q2 revenue of $95.359 billion, a 5% increase from $90.753 billion year-over-year, and a net profit of $24.780 billion, up 4.84% from $23.636 billion [6] - Despite exceeding market expectations, Apple's stock fell over 4% in after-hours trading due to lower-than-expected service revenue growth [7][9] Group 4: Tariff Effects on Apple - Apple CEO Tim Cook indicated that current global tariff rates could increase costs by $900 million in the upcoming quarter if no new tariffs are introduced [9] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs complicates cost predictions for Apple beyond June [9] Group 5: Economic Recession Predictions - Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that the U.S. tariff policy could have extremely negative effects, significantly increasing the likelihood of an economic recession [10] - An analysis from Apollo Global Management outlined a timeline for a potential recession, predicting a series of economic downturns starting in May and culminating in a recession by summer 2025 [11][13]

Group 1 - Protests erupted in major U.S. cities on May 1, with demonstrators expressing dissatisfaction with government policies and demanding a shift in funding priorities towards employment and education instead of foreign wars [1] - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce urged the Trump administration to implement a tariff exemption mechanism to prevent economic recession and mitigate harm to small businesses, representing over 3 million enterprises [3][4] - The White House rejected the request for immediate tariff relief, stating that assistance for small businesses would come through the largest tax cut in U.S. history [5][6] Group 2 - Apple reported a total net revenue of $95.359 billion for Q2, a 5% increase from $90.753 billion year-on-year, but the stock price fell over 4% post-announcement due to concerns over service revenue growth and tariff impacts [9][11] - CEO Tim Cook indicated that current global tariff rates could lead to an additional cost of $900 million for Apple in the upcoming quarter, complicating cost predictions due to the uncertain tariff environment [11] - The former U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that the tariff policy could significantly harm the U.S. economy, increasing the likelihood of recession [15][16] Group 3 - The analysis from Apollo Global Management outlined a four-step timeline predicting a U.S. economic recession, starting with a halt in port container ship arrivals in early May and culminating in a recession by summer 2025 [17][18][20] - The Los Angeles port executive projected a 35% decline in cargo volume compared to the previous year due to tariff impacts, indicating potential inventory shortages for retailers [13][14]

0:00 GDP负增长、股市大跌、创纪录的贸易逆差，美国一季度经济搞砸了。 美国商务部4月30日公布，第一季度美国国内生产总值（GDP）环比萎缩0.3%，这是自2022年第一季度 以来首次出现负增长，并且显著低于去年第三季度3.1%和第四季度2.4%的增速。美国财政部前官员更 是一针见血指出，美国经济今年下半年可能陷入衰退。 对于这份考砸的成绩单，美国商务部认为主要是受进口大幅增加和政府支出减少拖累。由于担心关税政 策引发涨价风暴，美国民众出现了囤货潮。近两个月，美国不少进口商提前大批量囤货，这让美国3月 份贸易逆差激增140亿美元，达到创纪录的1620亿美元。 经济不景气，股票市场也好不了。一季度，美国股市表现惨淡，三大指数全都下跌。其中，纳斯达克指 数下跌超过10%，标普500指数下跌约4.6%。这也是自2022年以来最糟糕的季度表现。 种种迹象表明，特朗普政府执政百天以来，从经济到民生，从GDP增长到股市表现，每一项政策都在令 美国经济掉头向下。 更糟糕的是，预期、信心都在恶化。4月份，美国消费者信心指数连续第五个月下降，跌至新冠疫情以 来的最低水平。超过七成的美国人认为现行政策可能引发新一轮经济衰退。 ...

昨夜，美国三大股指上演了一场"狂欢与恐慌交织"的戏剧性行情。道琼斯工业平均指数（道指）收涨 0.21%至40752.96点，标普500指数涨0.63%至5604.14点，纳斯达克综合指数（纳指）更是暴涨1.52%至 17710.74点，道指与标普500指数均实现八连涨，创下2024年以来最长连涨纪录。然而，就在市场沉浸 于"牛市重临"的狂欢中时，尾盘突然出现的集体跳水却为这场盛宴泼下一盆冷水。而更令投资者心惊肉 跳的是，科技巨头苹果盘后股价暴跌近4%，直接拖累市场情绪；与此同时，美国前财政部长耶伦与萨 默斯接连发出"经济衰退"警告，一场关于美国经济未来走向的激烈辩论正在华尔街蔓延。 美股尾盘跳水：八连涨神话背后的脆弱性 昨夜美股开盘后延续近期强势，道指与标普500指数一度刷新历史新高，纳指则在科技股带领下大涨逾 1.5%。然而，尾盘最后半小时，三大股指突然遭遇抛售潮，涨幅迅速收窄。道指从日内高点回落，标 普500指数抹去0.3%涨幅，纳指涨幅更是从2%以上缩水至1.52%。市场分析人士指出，尾盘跳水主要源 于两方面压力：一是投资者对美联储政策转向的担忧升温，尽管当日公布的美国4月ISM制造业PMI指 数超预期 ...

通胀预期飙至40多年高位 美滥施关税致自身经济"四面楚歌" 智通财经5月2日电，受美国政府关税政策影响，美国通胀预期飙升至40余年高位，经济衰退概率激增， 此外美国西海岸货运量骤降与制造业回流面临困境，多重压力令美国经济前景蒙上阴云。根据密歇根大 学4月25日公布的民调数据显示，消费者对未来一年美国国内通胀幅度的预期在4月升至6.5%，创下 1981年以来的最高值。而未来五至十年价格涨幅的预期在4月飙升至4.4%，创1991年以来最高。此外， 美国经济学家目前预计一年内经济衰退可能性的预测中位值也从今年1月的20%飙升到4月的45%。 (央 视新闻) ...

近期，美国经济分析局公布了2025年首季经济运行数据。这份备受瞩目的报告显示，当季美国国内生产总值（GDP）环比折年率下降0.3%，终结了此前连 续11个季度的正增长态势。这一数据发布恰逢特朗普政府推行关税政策的关键节点，其经济成效与竞选承诺形成的反差，引发国际社会广泛关注。 与我国惯用的同比核算法不同，美国采用环比折年率这一独特计算方式。具体而言，该指标通过将季度经济波动进行年化处理，模拟假设当季经济走势持续 全年可能产生的变动幅度。以本次数据为例，-0.3%的环比折年率仅反映2025年一季度相较2024年四季度的季度性波动，而非今年一季度与去年一季度的同 比变化。 在美国官方同步披露的同比数据中，美国一季度的GDP同比增速仍维持着2%的正向增长，对应咱们官宣的5.4%的增速。 | Line | | | 2021 | | | 2022 | | | | 2023 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to cut interest rates on May 20 due to the current economic conditions and inflation data aligning with expectations [1][3][4] - The overall consumer price index (CPI) in Australia remained unchanged at a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, while the trimmed mean inflation rate fell to 2.9%, both within the RBA's target range of 2%-3% [1][4] - Analysts believe that the RBA's decision to lower interest rates is a necessary measure to support economic growth amid rising global uncertainties and domestic economic challenges [2][3] Group 2 - Australia's economy has shown signs of weakness, with the latest data indicating that the country only recently emerged from a period of negative per capita GDP growth that lasted for seven consecutive quarters [2] - The ongoing trade tensions initiated by the Trump administration have raised concerns about a potential recession in Australia, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicting a loss of AUD 13 billion to the Australian economy due to these trade policies [3][4] - The RBA's anticipated rate cut is seen as a response to the softening labor market and the need to mitigate the risks posed by global economic uncertainties [3][4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The recurring earnings in Q1 2025 increased to a level consistent with the company's dividend of $0.20 per share, reflecting a strategic portfolio restructuring initiated two years ago [6][7] - Earnings Available for Distribution (EAD) per share rose to $0.20 in Q1 2025 from $0.16 in Q4 2024, while quarterly EPS contribution from adjusted net interest income increased to $0.40 per share, up from $0.36 in the prior quarter [13][14] - GAAP book value and adjusted book value per share increased to $9.37 and $10.43 respectively, representing a 1% increase compared to the end of 2024 [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Agency RMBS investments now account for over 50% of company assets, with approximately $1.5 billion of Agency RMBS purchased in Q1 2025, nearly four times more than the previous quarter [11][18] - In the residential credit sector, $397 million of whole loans were purchased, with a focus on bridge loans and rental loans [19][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The market experienced spread widening in Agency RMBS and residential credit, with current coupon agency spreads widening from 135 basis points to 143 basis points in Q1 2025 [22][23] - As of April 2025, adjusted book value is estimated to be down approximately 1.5% [38] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a flexible capital allocation strategy, focusing on Agency RMBS and residential credit depending on market conditions [21][40] - The strategic shift towards high liquid agency RMBS and short-duration credit assets has enhanced the company's ability to generate recurring income [7][27] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the geopolitical situation may lead to further market volatility, but they are prepared to deploy liquidity in attractive assets [21][22] - The company does not foresee immediate impacts from potential GSE reforms on their activities, indicating a cautious outlook for the near to medium term [32][33] Other Important Information - The company successfully increased its excess liquidity by nearly 20% from the previous quarter, ending Q1 2025 with $407 million of excess liquidity [8] - General and administrative expenses increased slightly due to non-recurring employee severance costs related to restructuring initiatives [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of potential GSE reform on business and mortgage market - Management indicated that GSE reform could lead to higher mortgage rates and liquidity issues, but they do not expect significant changes in the near term [31][33] Question: Update on book value performance in Q2 - As of April 2025, adjusted book value is estimated to be down approximately 1.5% [38] Question: Capital allocation strategy amidst market volatility - Management confirmed a continued focus on Agency RMBS and BPL, with a preference for BPL rental over BPL bridge loans [39][41] Question: Timing surrounding mezzanine and multifamily investments - The 10% payoff rate mentioned was year-to-date as of early April, with expectations for continued robust resolutions in the multifamily mezzanine portfolio [43][44]