东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，人民币走势偏强，将提振资本市场信心，也会吸引更多海外资金流 入国内资本市场，与汇市走强形成良性联动。 王青预计，短期内人民币还会处于偏强运行状态，接下来要重点关注美元走势、人民币中间价调控力 度，以及国内稳增长政策的力度和节奏。由于美联储未来可能继续降息，且特朗普政府关税政策对美国 经济的冲击逐步显现，美元指数上行空间有限。不过，年初以来美元跌幅巨大，对包括美联储降息等在 内的利空因素有所消化，后期会有较强的抗跌韧性。 纽约梅隆银行驻香港的亚太区高级市场策略师Wee Khoon Chong认为，后续人民币仍存在进一步升值空 间，从技术层面预测，美元对人民币汇率或将在2026年某一时刻趋近1美元兑7元人民币。 澳新银行驻新加坡亚洲研究主管Khoon Goh表示，预计人民币对美元汇率将于2026年保持温和升值，年 末预计将升至6.95一线。 人民币对美元汇率延续升值势头！ 继升破7.07关口后，12月3日，离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中最高升至7.05625，创2024年10月9日以来新 高。截至发稿，报7.05825。 人民币对美元即期汇率最高达7.0620，刷新去年10月中旬以来新高 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：关注下任美联储主席人选动态 【市场资讯】1）特朗普称明年初将宣布美联储主席人选，暗示哈塞特。新美联储通讯社： 哈塞特当选美联储主席已"内部确定"。2）美国假日购物季"开门红"！美国零售联合会：感 恩节假日购物人数飙至超 2 亿人次。3）欧元区 11 月 CPI 回升至 2.2%，服务业价格顽固， 欧央行 12 月降息"几无可能"。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，10 月份受上年同期基数抬高、财务费用增长较快等因素影响，规 模以上工业企业利润同比下降 5.5%。当前工业企业利润增速受"量价双弱"格局拖累，边际 回落特征显著，营收利润率偏弱的态势未得到明显改善。展望短期，预计年内规模以上工 业企业利润增速将持续面临较大压力，大概率维持弱势震荡格局。中长期来看，随着宏观 托底政策逐步落地见效，叠加"反内卷"相关政策推动行业竞争格局优化，企业经营环境将 逐步改善，2025 年工业企业盈利有望进入逐步修复通道。中国 11 月官方制造业 PMI 环比 回升至 49.2，整体呈现边际改善趋势，但弱于季节性表现。海外方面，11 月以来，美元指 数两度站上 100 点。回顾两轮突破 100 点的过程，我们认为其强势 ...

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve is increasing, which is expected to support a further bull market for gold prices [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 2, international gold prices opened at $4231.36 per ounce, reached a high of $4235.97, and then fell to a low of $4163.81 before closing at $4205.63, resulting in a daily decline of $25.73 or 0.61% [1][3]. - The daily trading range was $72.16, indicating volatility in the market [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Technical resistance and profit-taking led to a decline in gold prices, but support buying and expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve under Trump's potential nominee for chair, Hassett, helped gold prices recover [3][5]. - The upcoming U.S. ADP employment figures and core PCE inflation data are anticipated to influence market expectations for interest rate cuts, which could further support gold prices [3][5]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The U.S. dollar index is expected to remain under pressure, which is favorable for gold prices, as it is trading below key moving averages [5]. - Strong demand for gold from global central banks continues, with a reported net purchase of 53 tons in October, a 36% increase month-over-month, marking the largest monthly net demand since early 2025 [5]. - Geopolitical tensions are also providing a solid support base for gold prices [5]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Monthly and weekly charts indicate a bullish trend for gold, with the need to break above the $4400 level to open further upside potential [8]. - Short-term pullbacks are viewed as buying opportunities, with historical trends suggesting that corrections during rate-cutting cycles often lead to significant upward movements [6][8]. Group 5: Price Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4195 and $4180, while resistance levels are at $4220 and $4245 [10]. - For silver, support is noted at $58.10 and $57.70, with resistance at $59.00 and $59.70 [10].

Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - Spot gold prices experienced significant volatility, dropping to $4,180 per ounce on December 2, with a daily decline of 1.36% and further falling to $4,170 per ounce, resulting in a total daily drop of 1.52% [1][2] - Concurrently, New York futures gold also declined, falling below $4,210 per ounce with a daily drop of 1.55%, and further decreasing to below $4,200 per ounce, marking a daily decline of 1.76% [3][4] - However, on the morning of December 3, spot gold rebounded, surpassing $4,210 per ounce with a daily increase of 0.13% [5] - Silver's main contract showed strong performance, rising by 1% to 13,627.00 yuan on December 2, and further increasing by 2%, currently reported at 13,762.00 yuan [6][7] Group 2: Energy and Shipping Futures - U.S. crude oil inventories saw an increase, with the American Petroleum Institute (API) reporting a rise of 2.48 million barrels last week, compared to a decrease of 1.859 million barrels the previous week [8] Group 3: Macro and Market Impact - The European Central Bank's foreign exchange reserves saw a slight adjustment, increasing by 300 million euros to 328.4 billion euros [9] - The U.S. dollar index fluctuated due to policy expectations, with a 0.1% decline to 99.33 following comments from Trump regarding potential Federal Reserve chair candidates [10]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has appreciated against the USD, reaching a high of 7.06440, indicating a trend of independent movement away from the USD index since September 2023 [1] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB has shown an overall appreciation trend against the USD this year, increasing by 3.59% year-to-date, while depreciating against the Euro by 8% and the GBP by 2% [1] - Since mid-September, despite a rebound in the USD, the RMB has continued to appreciate slightly against both the USD and other major currencies, reflecting a complex exchange rate dynamic amid global trade restructuring [1] Group 2: Trade and Foreign Exchange Dynamics - China's trade remains robust, with total imports and exports reaching $5.26 trillion, a growth of 7.7%, and a trade surplus of $727.7 billion, expanding by 43.8% [2] - The significant increase in bank settlement surplus, with September's surplus reaching $51 billion, the largest monthly surplus since December 2020, indicates strong foreign exchange inflows [2][3] Group 3: Influencing Factors on Market Expectations - The decline of the USD index by 8.33% this year has led to a loss of patience among companies holding USD, contributing to the large settlement surplus [3] - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly the likelihood of interest rate cuts, have influenced the USD's depreciation and the RMB's appreciation [3][4] - The potential nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair with a focus on immediate rate cuts could further impact market expectations and the USD's value [4] Group 4: Regulatory Influence on RMB Valuation - Regulatory actions, such as the issuance of central bank bills, suggest a preference for a controlled appreciation of the RMB, reducing risks associated with bullish positions on the currency [5] - The recent RMB appreciation is attributed not only to the USD's decline but also to internal factors, although uncertainties remain regarding future export strength and external demand [5]

新华财经纽约12月2日电美元指数2日下跌。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.06%，在汇市尾市收于99.357。 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1622美元，高于前一交易日的1.1608美元；1英镑兑换1.3211美元，低 于前一交易日的1.3213美元。 1美元兑换155.88日元，高于前一交易日的155.48日元；1美元兑换0.8032瑞士法郎，低于前一交易日的 0.8044瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3971加元，低于前一交易日的1.3997加元；1美元兑换9.4286瑞典克朗，低 于前一交易日的9.4589瑞典克朗。 （文章来源：新华社） ...

Core Points - The ICE Dollar Index fell over 0.05% to a daily low of 99.319 points after President Trump referred to Hassett as a "potential" Federal Reserve Chairman [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index also dropped over 0.05%, reaching a daily low of 1217.02 points following Trump's comments about Hassett [1] - Earlier in the day, the ICE Dollar Index peaked at 99.567 points, while the Bloomberg Dollar Index reached a high of 1219.47 points [1]

欧元兑美元在周一于1.1650区域受阻后，仍维持在1.1600上方 全球债券抛售推升美国国债收益率，为美元提供一定支撑 衡量美元兑六种主要货币汇率的美元指数（DXY）周一获得支撑，尽管美国ISM制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）疲软——该数据表明制造业活动连续第九个 月萎缩，新订单和就业岗位减少，通胀压力上升。 日本央行行长植田和男周一引发市场震荡，暗示可能在12月加息。此番言论触发全球债券市场抛售潮，推升美国国债收益率，为疲软美元提供支撑。 周二早间日本国债拍卖反响良好，在一定程度上缓解了市场担忧，但风险偏好仍显疲软。今日美国经济数据清淡，市场焦点仍将集中于周三公布的ISM服务 业PMI及ADP就业变化报告。 周一公布的美国ISM制造业PMI显示，11月制造业活动进一步收缩，指数从10月的48.7降至48.2，远低于预期值48.6。新订单指数从49.4跌至47.4，就业指数 从10月的46降至11月的44。支付价格指数从58.0升至58.5，凸显贸易关税引发的通胀压力。 欧元区制造业数据同样令人失望。最终版HCOB制造业PMI从10月持平于50.0的水平，经下修后降至11月五个月低点49.6（初值为49.7）。 ...

Group 1 - The ICE Dollar Index decreased by 0.05%, closing at 99.402 points [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index remained relatively stable, reported at 1217.91 points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing a range-bound consolidation, reflecting intense market speculation regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, particularly the uncertainty surrounding the December interest rate decision [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The dollar index showed a slight recovery compared to the end of November, indicating a month-on-month decline that highlights the market's fierce debate over Federal Reserve policy expectations [1] - In November, market expectations shifted significantly, with a notable drop in the anticipation of a rate cut in December due to delays in the release of the October non-farm payroll report and divergent views among Federal Reserve policymakers [1] - The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" revealed a decline in consumer spending and a weak job market, leading to a resurgence in the probability of a rate cut in December, which subsequently pressured the dollar index [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The dollar index is currently in a narrow range, with the upper boundary corresponding to the retracement neckline formed by the high on November 19, and the lower boundary representing recent low points, indicating a typical "box consolidation" pattern [2] - Short-term moving averages have formed a golden cross but are flattening, while medium to long-term moving averages are diverging downward, suggesting weak short-term support but an unresolved medium-term downtrend [2] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near neutral, indicating insufficient market momentum, while the MACD shows a narrowing green histogram followed by a slight increase in the red histogram, suggesting potential direction selection after short-term fluctuations [2] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - In the medium to long term, the Federal Reserve may have more room to cut rates in 2026 compared to other non-US central banks, potentially leading to a further downward shift in the dollar's volatility center [3] - Despite significant declines in 2025, the US economy still holds advantages over Europe and Japan, suggesting that any further declines in the dollar may be limited next year [3] - Various risk factors, including the US midterm elections and the execution of tariff agreements, are expected to intermittently disrupt market sentiment and increase exchange rate volatility [3]