智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，10月乘用车批发销量为293万辆、同比+7%、环比+4%，估 计最终10月零售约234万辆、同比+3%、环比+6%。以旧换新效果依然显著，出口持续高增，10月批发 继续创历史当月最高。10月电车批发162万辆、同比+18%、环比+8%，渗透率55%、同比+5PP、环比 +2PP。行至年末，各品牌逐步发布购置税退坡锁单政策，预计Q4销量翘尾或透支现象小于此前市场预 期。政策退坡影响逐渐消除后，板块有望迎来修复行情。 华创证券主要观点如下： 10月批发增速降至个位数，新能源渗透率超55% 10月乘用车批发销量为293万辆、同比+7%、环比+4%，估计最终10月零售约234万辆、同比+3%、环比 +6%。以旧换新效果依然显著，出口持续高增，10月批发继续创历史当月最高，但基数原因导致零售同 比预计仅微增，因而批发同比增速降至个位数。 1)电车：10月批发162万辆、同比+18%、环比+8%，渗透率55%、同比+5PP、环比+2PP。主要车企新能 源销量分别为：比亚迪43.7万辆、吉利17.8万辆、五菱11.4万辆、奇瑞10.5万、长安9.9万辆、零跑7.0万 辆、特斯拉6.1 ...

Group 1: Production and Sales Data - In October, the total production of power and other batteries in China reached 170.6 GWh, with a month-on-month increase of 12.9% and a year-on-year increase of 50.5% [1][8] - From January to October, the cumulative production of power and other batteries was 1292.5 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 51.3% [1][8] - The total sales of power and other batteries in October amounted to 166.0 GWh, marking a month-on-month increase of 13.3% and a year-on-year increase of 50.8% [19][24] Group 2: Battery Types and Market Share - In October, power battery sales were 124.3 GWh, accounting for 74.9% of total sales, with a month-on-month increase of 12.4% and a year-on-year increase of 56.6% [20][19] - Cumulative sales of power batteries from January to October reached 910.3 GWh, representing a year-on-year growth of 49.9% [20][19] - Other battery sales in October were 41.7 GWh, which is 25.1% of total sales, with a month-on-month increase of 15.9% and a year-on-year increase of 35.7% [24][19] Group 3: Export Data - In October, the total export of power and other batteries was 28.2 GWh, with a month-on-month increase of 5.5% and a year-on-year increase of 33.5%, accounting for 17.0% of total sales [25][2] - Cumulative exports from January to October reached 228.1 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 43.9% [25][2] - The export of power batteries in October was 19.4 GWh, with a month-on-month increase of 10.0% and a year-on-year increase of 76.7% [30][26] Group 4: Installation Data - In October, the domestic installation of power batteries was 84.1 GWh, with a month-on-month increase of 10.7% and a year-on-year increase of 42.1% [45][3] - Cumulative installation from January to October reached 578.0 GWh, representing a year-on-year growth of 42.4% [45][3] - Among the installed batteries in October, lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 80.3% with a volume of 67.5 GWh, while ternary batteries accounted for 19.7% with a volume of 16.5 GWh [45][3] Group 5: Market Concentration - In October, 33 power battery companies achieved installation in the new energy vehicle market, a decrease of 6 companies compared to the previous year [56][3] - The top two, five, and ten companies accounted for 64.3%, 81.8%, and 94.7% of the total installation volume, respectively [56][3] - From January to October, the top two, five, and ten companies accounted for 65.0%, 81.7%, and 94.4% of the total installation volume, with a slight decrease in market concentration compared to the previous year [56][3]

每经记者｜孙磊 每经编辑｜程鹏 余婷婷 "最近一两周跟我们所有的电池厂商老板都喝过酒了！"11月6日晚，小鹏汽车董事长何小鹏在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时，对当下动力电池的产能 现状颇为感慨。 据记者了解，今年四季度我国动力电池厂商的产能供给趋紧，产能利用率达到高位，车企们纷纷出招"抢"电池，无论是三元锂还是磷酸铁锂电池。 车fans创始人孙少军表示："最近，供应链配货是大问题，尤其是宁德时代这样的核心供应商。各品牌要货时间特别紧张，现在都是拼人脉的时候了。"此 外，还有媒体报道称，数家中国车企的采购人士集中到宁德时代总部销售办公室"堵门"，以期锁定电池产能。对此，记者向宁德时代方面求证，截至发稿 未获置评。 图片来源：每经记者 梁枭 摄 资料图 政策调整刺激订单增长 消费者扎堆年底提车 有分析认为，新能源汽车销量持续走高，市场对后市预期乐观，同时叠加四季度是传统销售旺季，以及购置税减免政策即将退坡等多方因素的关联与共 振，合力引爆了车企的"囤电"大战。 中汽协数据显示，今年1至10月，我国新能源汽车产销量分别完成1301.5万辆和1294.3万辆，同比增长逾三成；10月新能源汽车月度新车销量更是首次超过 ...

图片来源：每经记者 梁枭 摄 资料图 政策调整刺激订单增长，消费者扎堆年底提车 "最近一两周跟我们所有的电池厂商老板都喝过酒了！"11月6日晚，小鹏汽车董事长何小鹏在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时，对当下动力电池的产能 现状颇为感慨。 据记者了解，今年四季度我国动力电池厂商的产能供给趋紧，产能利用率达到高位，车企们纷纷出招"抢"电池，无论是三元锂还是磷酸铁锂电池。 车fans创始人孙少军表示："最近，供应链配货是大问题，尤其是宁德时代这样的核心供应商。各品牌要货时间特别紧张，现在都是拼人脉的时候了。"此 外，还有媒体报道称，数家中国车企的采购人士集中到宁德时代总部销售办公室"堵门"，以期锁定电池产能。对此，记者向宁德时代方面求证，截至发稿 未获置评。 储能市场需求火热，产业链形成"反向虹吸" 业内认为，储能市场对锂电池需求的激增，是造成"动力电池再度趋紧"的另一大关键因素。"国内乘用车动力电池主要是（磷酸）铁锂（电池），铁锂电 芯产能虽大但储能项目集中放量，导致阶段性挤占车用资源。"刘运程告诉记者，"铁锂目前的问题是虽然总量上充足，但很多产线被抽去做储能。" 就储能市场的表现，张金惠告诉记者："储能（市场）在 ...

Report Summary 1. Overnight Night Market Trends - **Energy Futures**: WTI crude oil futures rose 1.51% to $61.04 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rose 1.7% to $65.15 per barrel [4]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold futures rose 0.27% to $4,133.20 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 1.52% to $51.08 per ounce [5]. - **Base Metals**: Most London base metals rose, with LME tin up 1.86% at $36,695 per ton, LME copper up 0.41% at $10,840 per ton, etc. [5]. - **Domestic Futures**: As of November 11 at 23:00, domestic futures were mixed. Low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose nearly 2%, while coking coal fell over 2% [5]. 2. Important Information Macro Information - The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain a relatively loose social financing environment [8]. - The National Development and Reform Commission recommended 18 private investment projects to the CSRC, with 14 already issued and listed, raising nearly 30 billion yuan [8]. - From January to October, China's new - energy vehicle production and sales continued to grow, and in October, new - energy vehicle sales exceeded 50% of total vehicle sales for the first time [8]. - The National Development and Reform Commission held a video conference on energy supply during the heating season from 2025 - 2026, requiring stable energy production and supply [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - In September 2025, Indonesia's natural rubber exports to the world increased, and exports to China from January - September increased significantly. Exports in October are expected to continue rising [12]. - Japan's Idemitsu Kosan believes US sanctions on Russian oil won't significantly affect crude prices [13]. - Trump said India is stopping buying Russian oil due to high - tariff threats [14]. - Domestic propylene prices rebounded after hitting a 5 - year low, driven by a PDH plant shutdown and increased downstream demand [14]. Metal Futures - Multiple silicon wafer companies cut prices due to an oversupply situation and reduced battery factory demand [16]. - China's recycled non - ferrous metal industry is expected to exceed 20 million tons by the end of 2025 [17]. - Longi Green Energy's component shipments in the first three quarters of 2025 exceeded 60GW, with TOPCon and BC components having significant shares [19]. - Guinea plans to build 5 - 6 alumina refineries by 2030 to increase processing capacity to about 7 million tons [19]. Black - Series Futures - As of November 11, the operating rate and capacity utilization of 50 electric - arc furnace steel mills increased, and daily production also rose [21]. - From November 3 - 9, iron ore inventories at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil increased slightly [21]. - Iron ore inventories at Chinese ports increased significantly. Xinjiang plans to reduce construction steel production during winter to ease inventory pressure [22]. Agricultural Futures - As of the 45th week of 2025, domestic soybean oil inventories decreased by 6.26% week - on - week [25]. - Domestic palm oil inventories decreased slightly, and the spread between soybean and palm oil prices increased palm oil's attractiveness [25]. - Domestic soybean crushing volume dropped to a 6 - month low last week but is expected to rise this week [26]. - Analysts predict a slight decrease in US soybean production and a small increase in ending stocks for the 2025/26 season [26]. - November's soybean crushing volume is expected to be high, and bean粕 inventory is likely to remain above 1 million tons at the end of the month [27]. - Pig and pork prices continued to decline in the first week of November [27]. - As of October 31, China's cotton picking progress was 94.5%, and Malaysia's palm oil production decreased in early November [29]. - Brazil's November soybean, bean粕, and corn exports are expected to increase [29]. 3. Financial Markets Financial - A - shares were weak, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.39% to 4,002.76 points, and the trading volume was 2.01 trillion yuan [31]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.18% to 26,696.41 points, and南向 funds had a net inflow of HK$44.67 billion [31]. - Since October, margin trading funds have flowed into the power equipment, electronics, and non - ferrous metal industries [31]. - Laser radar company Hesai Technology reported a profit in Q3 and expects significant revenue growth in Q4 [33]. Industry - In October, new - energy vehicle sales in China accounted for over 50% of total vehicle sales. The CAAM suggests optimizing the "trade - in" policy [34]. - China will build pilot platforms in 6 key areas and 37 industries [36]. - Shanghai's "implantable wireless brain - computer interface system" entered the innovation medical device review process [36]. - The first humanoid robot 7S store opened in Wuhan [37]. - Huizhou, Guangdong, relaxed household registration restrictions [37]. Overseas - The US Senate passed a bill to avoid a government shutdown, and the House will vote on it [38]. - Trump warned of an economic disaster if the Supreme Court rules against his tariff policy and is close to a trade deal with India [38]. - US private - sector employment decreased, and small - business optimism hit a 6 - month low [38][40]. - The UK unemployment rate rose to 5% in the three months to September [40]. International Stocks - US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow up 1.18%, the S&P 500 up 0.21%, and the Nasdaq down 0.25% [41]. - European stocks rose across the board, driven by reduced US government shutdown risk and expected Fed rate cuts [41]. - SoftBank sold Nvidia and T - Mobile stocks to raise funds for OpenAI investment [42]. - Toyota's plan to privatize Toyota Industries faces challenges due to an investor's stake increase [42]. - Sony's Q2 revenue and profit exceeded expectations, and it raised its full - year profit forecast [44]. Commodities - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and Dalian Commodity Exchange changed their leaders [45]. - Some banks raised the minimum investment amount for gold accumulation plans [45]. - Crude oil prices rose due to US sanctions on Russian oil and expected end of the US government shutdown [45]. - Precious metals prices rose due to geopolitical risks and expected Fed rate cuts [46]. Bonds - The domestic bond market was warm, with most interest - rate bond yields falling [48]. - The Hong Kong government issued about HK$10 billion equivalent of digital green bonds [48]. - US Treasury yields fell as investors sought safety due to the government shutdown [48]. - Bonds of some tech giants were sold off due to concerns about AI spending [49]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1207 on Tuesday, down 32 points from the previous day [50]. - The US dollar index fell 0.14%, and most non - US currencies had mixed performances [51]. 4. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - **Economic Data**: Include Japan's November Reuters Tankan index, Germany's October CPI final value, etc. [54] - **Events**: There are central bank open - market operations, official press conferences, and speeches by central bank officials [56]

Core Insights - Great Wall Motors reported a revenue of 153.58 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 7.96%, while net profit decreased by 16.97% to 8.635 billion yuan, indicating a "revenue growth without profit increase" scenario [1][3][4] - The company is focusing on balancing sales growth with profit levels, as the increase in revenue has not translated into higher profits, raising concerns about cost control and profitability logic [1][4] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Great Wall Motors experienced a revenue decline of 6.63% to 40.02 billion yuan, with net profit dropping 45.6% to 1.751 billion yuan [4] - Q2 2025 showed improvement with revenue of 52.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.72%, and net profit rising 19.42% to 4.586 billion yuan [4] - Q3 2025 revenue reached 61.25 billion yuan, up 20.51% year-on-year, but net profit fell 31.23% to 2.298 billion yuan [4][5] Marketing and R&D Investments - Marketing expenses for the first three quarters reached 7.948 billion yuan, significantly up from 5.110 billion yuan in the previous year, contributing to a decline in gross margin to 18.40% [3][5] - R&D investment for the same period was 6.636 billion yuan, still lower than BYD's 43.748 billion yuan [5] Product and Sales Performance - The average selling price of vehicles exceeded 180,000 yuan, with sales of models priced above 200,000 yuan surpassing 100,000 units, reflecting a 40.83% year-on-year increase [5] - New energy vehicle sales reached 278,500 units, a year-on-year growth of 31.67%, but the company's market share in the overall new energy vehicle market was only 2.48% [8][9] Market Strategy and Brand Positioning - Great Wall Motors aims to embrace the younger market, launching the new Tank 400 model, which is positioned as a "trendy off-road SUV" targeting urban and outdoor users [11][14] - The company is shifting focus from sheer sales volume to sustainable growth, as indicated by Chairman Wei Jianjun's comments on prioritizing healthy development over high sales figures [6][7] International Sales Growth - Overseas sales for the first three quarters reached 334,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 3.06%, accounting for 36.19% of total sales [10]

早盘速递 2025/11/12 热点资讯 1. 中国人民银行发布2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告。其中提出，实施好适度宽松的货币政策。综合运用多种工具， 保持社会融资条件相对宽松，同时继续完善货币政策框架，强化货币政策的执行和传导。保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、 货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配，持续营造适宜的货币金融环境。 2. 中国汽车工业协会今天（11日）发布的最新数据显示，今年1至10月份，我国新能源汽车产销量继续实现较高增长。其中， 10月份新能源汽车月度新车销量首次超过了汽车新车总销量的50%。 3. 国家发展改革委组织召开2025—2026年供暖季能源保供视频会议。会议要求稳定能源生产供应，加强煤炭生产组织和运输 保障。确保各类电源应开尽开、稳发满发，充分发挥风电、光伏的电力电量支撑作用。 4. Mysteel卫星数据显示，2025年11月3日-11月9日期间， 澳大利亚、巴西七个主要港口铁矿石库存总量1262.6万吨，环比上 升45.8万吨，呈小幅累库趋势，当前库存水平略低于下半年以来的中位线。 5. 美国总统特朗普表示，对印度征收高额关税是因为它购买了俄罗斯石油，印 ...

总体来看，1至10月，汽车产销累计完成2769.2万辆和2768.7万辆，同比分别增长13.2%和12.4%。 "今年前十个月汽车产销总体增长速度超出年初预期，'两新'政策对市场的拉动作用非常明显。预计， 今年汽车产销量均会超过3400万辆，达到历史新高。"陈士华说。 陈士华表示，明年是"十五五"开局之年，提振消费依然是重点工作之一。自去年下半年以来，汽车"以 旧换新"政策带动效果显著，建议明年继续优化实施相关政策，并尽早发布实施细则，稳定市场预期， 助力行业平稳运行。 11月11日，中汽协发布数据显示，2025年10月份，我国新能源汽车产销同比保持快速增长，新能源汽车 新车销量达到汽车新车总销量的51.6%，占有率首次过半。10月，新能源汽车产销分别完成177.2万辆和 171.5万辆，同比分别增长21.1%和20%。 中汽协副秘书长陈士华表示，10月，车企抢抓年底政策切换窗口期，生产供给保持较快节奏。企业新品 继续密集上市、行业综合治理工作稳步推进，汽车市场延续良好发展态势，月度产销创同期新高。其 中，乘用车市场稳健增长，商用车市场持续向好，新能源汽车较快增长，对外贸易呈现较好韧性。 今年以来，我国新能源 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the phosphate chemical industry, particularly the demand and pricing dynamics of iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate, driven by the growth in the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Demand Growth**: By 2025, the demand for iron phosphate is expected to increase by 1 million tons per year, primarily driven by the growth in new energy vehicles and energy storage needs. The shipment volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries in China has increased by 62.7%, accounting for 81.5% of the total battery shipments [1][4]. - **Price Stability and Trends**: The price of iron phosphate is projected to stabilize around 10,500 CNY per ton, with a recent slight increase. The cost of raw materials, particularly sulfur, has surged from 1,580 CNY to 3,900 CNY, significantly impacting the cost of industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate and, consequently, the pricing of iron phosphate [1][5][6]. - **Production Capacity and Utilization**: The production capacity for iron phosphate is reported at 5.2 million tons, but actual production is only 3.7 million tons, indicating a significant underutilization of capacity due to high raw material costs and slow technological updates [13][14]. - **Market Dynamics**: The market for iron phosphate is currently characterized by a "sales-based production" model, where production is primarily driven by orders from battery manufacturers. This has led to a situation where companies do not face significant sales issues as long as they have contracts with battery manufacturers [12][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Raw Material Impact**: The rising costs of raw materials, particularly sulfur and phosphoric acid, are exerting upward pressure on the prices of downstream products like iron phosphate. For instance, every 1,000 CNY increase in sulfur prices adds approximately 600-700 CNY to the cost of industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate [6][15]. - **Technological Developments**: There is a growing interest in solid-state battery components, such as pentasulfide, which could drive innovation and development within the industry. The market is also paying close attention to ultra-pure yellow phosphorus, which is crucial for these emerging technologies [8][19]. - **Future Projections**: The supply-demand balance for phosphate rock is expected to remain stable over the next few years, with no significant increase in production anticipated. By 2026, the annual increase in phosphate rock production is expected to be around 1 million tons, which should adequately meet downstream demand [3][22]. Conclusion - The phosphate chemical industry is poised for growth, driven by the increasing demand for iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate in the electric vehicle and energy storage markets. However, rising raw material costs and underutilized production capacity present challenges that need to be addressed for sustained profitability and growth in the sector [2][9][24].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - Geely Automobile reported a total sales volume of 307,000 units in October 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.5% and a month-on-month increase of 12.5% [2][4]. - Cumulative sales from January to October 2025 reached 2.477 million units, up 44.3% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is expected to enter a new product era supported by the GEA architecture, with positive developments across its brands including Zeekr, Lynk & Co, and Galaxy [7]. - The transition to new energy vehicles is progressing smoothly, with scale effects expected to enhance profitability [7]. - Geely's strong foundation in fuel vehicles and innovative overseas expansion strategies are opening new markets [7]. - The company is set to launch 10 new energy models in 2025, with significant advancements in smart driving capabilities [7]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - October 2025 sales reached 307,000 units, with Geely brand, Lynk & Co, and Zeekr sales at 245,000, 40,000, and 21,000 units respectively [7]. - Galaxy brand achieved 127,000 units in October, marking a 100.8% increase year-on-year [7]. - Exports in October totaled 42,000 units, up 22.6% year-on-year [7]. - New energy vehicle sales in October were 178,000 units, accounting for 57.9% of total sales, a year-on-year increase of 63.6% [7]. Product Strategy - Geely plans to launch 10 new energy models in 2025, including five new models and several facelifts [7]. - The company is enhancing its smart driving capabilities, with new models expected to feature advanced driving technologies [7]. Financial Outlook - The projected net profit for 2025 is 16.1 billion yuan, with a corresponding price-to-earnings ratio of 10.6X [7].