Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.33%, S&P 500 futures down 0.18%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.09% [1] - European indices are also experiencing declines, with Germany's DAX down 0.96%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.83%, France's CAC40 down 1.08%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.10% [2] - WTI crude oil is down 1.72% at $60.51 per barrel, while Brent crude is down 1.76% at $63.77 per barrel [2] Economic and Policy Updates - The tax reform bill proposed by President Trump has passed the House of Representatives with a narrow margin (215 to 214 votes), moving to the Senate for further modifications [3] - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns of potential stagflation risks in the US economy, suggesting that the Federal Reserve should remain cautious in its monetary policy decisions [3] - Goldman Sachs executives note that investors are currently more "emotional" compared to during the pandemic or financial crisis, influenced by political biases [4] Company-Specific News - JPMorgan reports a broad recovery in the Chinese economy, with increasing interest from foreign investors seeking diversification [5] - Analog Devices (ADI) raises its Q3 revenue forecast to $2.75 billion, driven by strong demand in the automotive and industrial sectors [6] - Snowflake (SNOW) exceeds Q1 revenue expectations with $1 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, and raises its full-year product revenue guidance [6] - LexinFintech (LX) reports a significant increase in Q1 profits, reaching a three-year high, with revenue of 3.1 billion yuan and a 104.7% year-over-year profit growth [6] - Manchester United (MANU) faces a stock price drop after losing a crucial match, resulting in an estimated loss of $100 million in potential revenue from the Champions League [7] - Google (GOOGL) initiates AI search ad testing, aiming to enhance demand conversion efficiency through AI-integrated advertisements [8]

5月22日，摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙再次警告称，由于美国经济面临地缘政治、财政赤字和物价压力等巨大风险， 他不能排除美国经济陷入滞胀的可能性。 在特朗普政府频繁发布贸易、监管与税收政策变动下，企业普遍推迟并购和投资计划。摩根大通投资银行部门表示，今 年投资银行费用可能同比下降超过15%，大幅高于市场预期。 摩根大通联席CEO特洛伊·罗巴赫此前指出："不确定性促使客户推迟决策，许多原计划中的大型交易被搁置。" 与此同时，摩根大通本周宣布成立"地缘政治中心"，研究俄乌、中东及全球军备升级问题，意在协助客户评估全球风 险。 戴蒙当天在上海举行的摩根大通全球中国峰会上发表了上述观点。他在接受媒体采访时说："我不认为我们处于最佳状 态，美联储在决定货币政策之前采取的观望态度是正确的。" 今年以来，在美国总统特朗普的关税政策背景下，经济前景充满不确定性，美联储也一直采取观望态度、维持利率不 变。不过，美联储官员们认为，通胀和失业率双双上升的风险正在加大。 戴蒙此前曾表示："我认为通胀上升和出现滞胀的可能性，可能略高于其他人的预期。" 本月早些时候，美国与亚洲国家达成90天关税缓解协议，计划继续谈判以达成新贸易安排。尽 ...

Group 1 - The continuous rise in U.S. Treasury yields is causing widespread concern in the market, particularly following a disappointing auction of $16 billion 20-year Treasuries, which has spread pessimism to the U.S. stock and dollar markets [1][3] - The U.S. Treasury is planning to auction $18 billion in 10-year TIPS on Thursday, with additional auctions for various maturities scheduled from May 27 to May 29, indicating significant supply pressure [1][3] - The 30-year Treasury yield has surpassed 5.100%, while the 20-year and 10-year yields have also reached 5.105% and 4.613%, respectively, raising concerns about increased supply due to government fiscal plans [3][4] Group 2 - The highest bid rate for the 20-year Treasury auction reached 5.047%, marking the second instance of a bid rate exceeding 5% and indicating a significant increase in yield compared to the pre-issue rate [4] - The bid-to-cover ratio for the auction dropped from an average of 2.57 to 2.46, reflecting decreased demand in the market [4] - Moody's reported that U.S. public debt is approximately 100% of GDP and is expected to rise to 134% over the next decade, exacerbating inflation concerns and limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates [4]

Group 1 - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, expressed concerns about the possibility of the U.S. economy entering stagflation, citing significant risks from geopolitical issues, fiscal deficits, and price pressures [1] - Dimon disagreed with the notion that the economy is in its best state, emphasizing that the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates is correct despite prevailing market optimism [1] - The uncertainty in policy has led to stagnation in corporate investment, with many companies, including those in Wall Street's lucrative M&A sector, pausing expansion plans, which heightens the risk of economic slowdown [1] Group 2 - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, echoed similar warnings, stating that the Federal Reserve should not lower interest rates given the current economic conditions [2] - Dalio highlighted the difficult position of the Federal Reserve, which must balance various factors amid significant uncertainty, although the real economy has not shown substantial issues yet [2]

美国银行知名策略师哈内特最近将新兴市场称为全球市场中的"下一个牛市"。 全球市场向来牵一发而动全身。此前，穆迪调降美国信用评级仅导致美国"股债汇三杀"一日游，不少华尔街大机构高管开始警示美元资产投资者过于自满的 风险，并认为全球金融系统正在发生一些"更深层次"的事情。 话音刚落，被视为传统避险资产的日债、美债拍售相继遇冷，后者导致美国周三再度遭遇"股债汇三杀"。同时，黄金、比特币价格却升至历史新高。此外， 随着更多投资者选择"卖出美国"交易，分析师认为新兴市场有望开启一轮牛市。 美债、日债吸引力下降的逻辑 周三，美国再度遭遇股债汇三杀：美股三大股指遭遇四月以来最严重抛售、长期美债收益率出现两位数基点单日涨幅、美元指数再现将近50点的大跌单日， 失手关键点位100。其中，美债再度成为大跌的"风暴眼"。当日拍售的20年期美债的最高中标利率达到5.047%，史上第二次超过5%，并录得近6个月来最大 尾部利差，投标倍数也从近六个月平均水平2.57降至2.46。如此惨淡的拍售数据发生在穆迪调降美国信用评级后的首场长债拍售中。本应是避险资产的长期 美债需求遇冷，再度引发了投资者恐慌情绪，带动美股美元同步大跌。 对美国高债 ...

这家美国最大的银行本周还成立了"地缘政治中心"，研究俄罗斯、乌克兰、中东和全球重整军备。 戴蒙表示，该部门"既是为我们服务的，也是为了教育客户。客户一直在问我们，我们应该为这个国家 做些什么。你如何看待风险?" 摩根大通等机构已表示，特朗普政策的不确定性可能导致客户离场观望。摩根大通商业和投资银行联席 首席执行官Troy Rohrbaugh本周早些时候表示，与去年同期相比，其投资银行业务费用可能会下降15% 左右，降幅超过分析师的预期。 戴蒙还补充说，美国必须"解决赤字问题"，他也理解投资者为何可能会削减美元资产。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙不能排除美国经济陷入滞胀的可能性，因为美国面 临地缘政治、赤字和价格压力带来的巨大风险。"我不认为我们处于最佳状态，"戴蒙在上海举行的全球 中国峰会上接受采访时表示。他还补充道，美联储在决定货币政策之前观望是正确的。 今年以来，美联储官员一直维持利率不变。美联储官员表示，他们认为通胀和失业率双双上升的风险加 大。 本月早些时候，美国和中国同意在90天内大幅降低关税，以敲定一项新协议。分析师和投资者预计，美 国总统唐纳德·特朗普对华关税在90天的休战期 ...

如果"美债=无风险资产"的共识崩塌，避险资产"变脸"，你该如何配置资产？ 当避险资产变风险资产 进入5月中旬，除美债外，全球市场剧本被反复改写。 5月12日，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》发布后，美股显著上涨，同时黄金和美债价格同步下跌。市场对经济前景的担忧得到阶段性缓解，资金自传统 避险资产转向风险资产。从另一角度看，避险资产（如黄金）在此时一度转为风险资产。 谁能想到，在一系列重大事件的催化下，全球市场的剧本反复改写，唯独美债持续承压。 美东时间5月21日，美国财政部160亿美元的20年期国债拍卖结果不佳。市场反应剧烈，10年期美债收益率跃升至4.6%，进而拖累美股。交易员押注10年期 美债收益率将升至5%，凸显市场对美国通胀、财政赤字以及长期债务风险的忧虑。 桥水基金创始人达里欧在社交平台上发文称，债券市场供需失衡的剧烈变化，往往预示着更广泛的经济风险。他警告，美国政府可能通过印钞应对债务压 力，这将引发货币贬值并侵蚀债券持有者的利益。这与20年期美国国债拍卖疲软的表现相呼应，反映出市场对美债可持续性的深层焦虑。 5月12日，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》发布后，10年期美债收益率迅速攀升至4.48%， ...

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon emphasizes the need to prepare for stagflation and expresses skepticism about the ongoing soft landing scenario [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Dimon indicates a cautious stance regarding the economic outlook, highlighting the potential for stagflation [1] - The CEO questions the sustainability of the current soft landing, suggesting that challenges may lie ahead [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - JPMorgan remains a long-term investor in China, indicating confidence in the region's potential despite global economic uncertainties [1]

摩根大通CEO戴蒙：必须为滞胀做好准备。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the risk of "stagflation" in the U.S. remains high, leading to increased demand for gold among investors [1] - U.S. inflation data has not yet reflected the impact of tariffs, as there is still inventory buffering and businesses have not yet passed on costs through price increases [1] - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. fell by 4.8 points to 52.2 in April, marking the lowest level since August 2022, indicating that consumer confidence is being affected by tariffs [1] Group 2 - The gold ETF (code: 518800) tracks the spot price of gold (Au99.99 contract) and is suitable for investors seeking asset preservation and inflation hedging [2] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Cathay Gold ETF Link A (000218) and Cathay Gold ETF Link C (004253) for exposure to gold [3]