Group 1: Tariff Impact on the US Economy - As of mid-May, the average tariff rate on US imports has decreased to approximately 16%, yet remains at a historical high[15] - The average tariff on imports from China is now 42%, with the overall average tariff rate dropping from 27% to 16% following recent agreements[19] - The Yale Budget Lab estimates that these tariffs could reduce US GDP by 0.65 percentage points and increase inflation by 1.7 percentage points[23] Group 2: Monitoring Economic Indicators - The economic impact of tariffs can be monitored through three dimensions: trade, prices, and risk appetite[31] - In the short term, key economic indicators to watch include imports, inventory levels, and inflation pressures[2] - The first quarter saw a significant "import rush" in the US, with inventory levels rising, but the inventory-to-sales ratio remained stable[2] Group 3: Inflation and Consumer Behavior - The inflation effects of tariffs are becoming apparent, although the response of import prices has been insufficient so far[3] - Tariffs are expected to transmit increased costs from import prices to production and consumer prices, suppressing actual consumption demand[32] - There are signs that consumer purchasing power is weakening, with previous "panic buying" trends showing signs of exhaustion[3] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The US economy may follow a dynamic path from "stagflation" to "slowdown" or "recession," depending on how tariff conflicts evolve[3] - High-frequency indicators suggest that investment, consumption, and employment in the US may weaken in the near term[3] - The potential for a "recession panic" cannot be ruled out if inflationary pressures continue to rise while economic growth slows[3]

Group 1 - The article discusses the monitoring framework for assessing the economic impact of tariff shocks in the U.S., focusing on trade, prices, and risk preferences [3][27] - As of mid-May, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports has decreased to around 16%, but it remains at a historical high, with potential GDP decline of 0.65% and inflation increase of 1.7% due to tariffs [4][13][10] - The article emphasizes that the current economic condition is characterized by "stagflation," which is the baseline assumption for the short term [18][19] Group 2 - In the short term, key economic indicators to monitor include imports, inventory levels, and inflation pressures, with a notable increase in imports and stable inventory turnover ratios [4][39] - The article highlights that the inflation effects of tariffs may be delayed but are expected to manifest, impacting consumer demand [4][58] - The U.S. economy is likely to follow a dynamic path from "stagflation" to "slowdown" or "recession," depending on how tariff conflicts evolve [5][105] Group 3 - The article notes that the U.S. has experienced a significant "import rush" in the first quarter, with a stable inventory-to-sales ratio, indicating robust domestic demand despite tariff impacts [4][39] - Tariffs have led to a shift in U.S. import patterns, with increased imports from countries with lower tariff rates, such as Canada and Mexico, while imports from China have decreased significantly [36][30] - The article suggests that certain U.S. export sectors, particularly oil, coal, and basic metals, may face significant challenges due to retaliatory tariffs [47][5] Group 4 - The inflation effects of tariffs are becoming evident, with U.S. retail prices starting to reflect the impact of tariffs on imported goods [58][61] - The article indicates that the inflationary pressures may suppress consumer spending, as observed in the correlation between inflation and consumer behavior [69][61] - The financial market's volatility and increased financial pressure could further suppress investment and consumer sentiment in the U.S. economy [75][88]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent US-China trade negotiations in Geneva, resulting in mutual tariff reductions, with the US tariff on China decreasing to 42% and China's tariff on the US decreasing to 27% [2][26][31] - The US overall average tariff rate has dropped from 27% to 16%, although the new tariffs may still lead to a 0.65% decline in US GDP and a 1.7% increase in inflation [2][26] - The article highlights the performance of major stock indices, with the Nasdaq rising by 7.2% and the S&P 500 by 5.3% during the week [2][3] Group 2 - The article notes that the US CPI for April was 2.3%, slightly below the market expectation of 2.4%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures influenced by tariffs [40] - Retail sales in the US for April showed a slight increase of 0.1%, which was better than the expected 0%, but excluding automobiles and gasoline, the retail performance was weaker than anticipated [44] - Initial jobless claims in the US were reported at 229,000, slightly above the market expectation of 228,000, suggesting potential upward pressure on the unemployment rate [46] Group 3 - The article mentions that the US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 6 basis points to 4.43%, while the yields in other developed countries showed mixed movements [12][14] - The dollar index increased by 0.6% to 100.98, with most other currencies depreciating against the dollar [17] - The article also highlights the performance of commodities, with WTI crude oil rising by 2.4% to $62.5 per barrel, while gold prices fell by 4.0% to $3191.8 per ounce [21][23]

Core Viewpoint - The risk of stagflation in the US remains, with significant implications from the recent tariff policies that could lead to retaliatory measures from trade partners, negatively impacting both the US and global economic growth while potentially increasing inflation in the long term [1][2]. Group 1: US Economic Outlook - The current US GDP growth rate is stable at over 2%, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, indicating a relatively healthy economy [19]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement 5-6 rate cuts by the end of 2025, although there is a possibility of accelerating these cuts to stimulate the economy [19]. Group 2: Tariff Policy Impact - The recent US tariff policies are more aggressive than previous rounds, raising concerns about their potential to cool down the global economy [2]. - Historical data shows that previous tariff increases have led to significant declines in both imports and exports, as seen during the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which resulted in a 66% drop in US imports from 1930 to 1933 [22]. Group 3: China Economic Performance - China's economy showed resilience in the first quarter, but the likelihood of a slowdown in the second quarter has increased, suggesting a cautious outlook for the year [3]. - The Chinese government has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, indicating a stable but cautious economic strategy [26]. Group 4: Commodity Market Trends - The performance of various metals since May indicates a mixed response to tariff announcements, with gold and silver prices declining by 3.9% and 1.3% respectively, while aluminum and tin saw increases of 1.7% and 1.8% [9]. - The volatility in the commodity market is expected to decrease in the second quarter, reflecting a more stable trading environment [31]. Group 5: Supply Chain and Industry Dynamics - Close attention is required on supply-side disruptions that could affect commodity pricing and availability [5]. - The influence of precious metals on the pricing dynamics of the non-ferrous sector is a critical area for monitoring [4].

20250516申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 林新杰（从业编号：F3032999 交易咨询号：Z0014722） linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50586279 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪金2506 | 沪金2512 | 沪银2506 | 沪银2512 | | | | 现价 | 752.26 | 757.90 | 8110.00 | 8176.00 | | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 759.70 | 765.62 | 8172.00 | 8237.00 | | | 货 | | | | | | | | | 涨跌 | -7.44 | -7.72 | -62.00 | -61.00 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -0.98% | -1.01% | -0.76% | -0.74% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 67172 | 55950 | 161604 | 125287 | | | | 成交量 | 69209 | 14621 | 253713 | 33734 | | ...

Group 1: High Yield Bond Market - The high yield bond market showed resilience in Q1 2025, not experiencing the severe downturn expected amid broader economic uncertainty, with positive absolute returns but no excess returns above risk-free rates, as yields were 113 basis points lower than neutral U.S. Treasury rates [1] - There was a clear bifurcation in the high yield bond sector, with BB-rated bonds outperforming lower-rated bonds, indicating a shift towards higher quality bonds by investors in response to economic uncertainty [1] - The high yield bond market is supported by favorable technical factors, including suppressed default rates and extended refinancing schedules, with many bonds maturing as late as 2029, providing a buffer amid slowing economic growth [6] Group 2: Macroeconomic Impact of Tariffs - The implementation of new tariffs by the Trump administration is a direct catalyst for market volatility, with the IMF estimating a potential 0.9% reduction in U.S. GDP and a 1% increase in inflation if average tariff rates rise as announced [2] - The labor market shows mixed signals, with stable unemployment claims but increasing targeted layoffs, particularly in sectors reliant on federal spending, leading to concerns about the employment outlook as small business optimism declines [3] - The Federal Reserve is maintaining a cautious stance, with expectations of 2.5 rate cuts in 2025, but market consensus suggests potential for more aggressive cuts if inflation remains high amid economic stagnation [3] Group 3: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds - The investment-grade corporate bond market reflects increasing unease, with credit spreads widening from 80 basis points to 93 basis points by the end of Q1 2025, although still within neutral ranges [4] - Corporate fundamentals remain resilient, with EBITDA showing a stable growth of 3.5% year-over-year, and interest coverage ratios at a solid 9.3 times, indicating that companies can withstand moderate economic downturns [4] - Demand dynamics for U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds are being closely monitored, particularly from foreign investors, which could enhance bond prices if U.S. Treasury yields remain stable [5] Group 4: Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) and Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) - The MBS and ABS markets are affected by renewed interest rate volatility due to tariff expectations, with a preference for high-quality auto loan structures despite rising concerns over consumer repayment capabilities [6] - The demand for high-quality assets may offset potential outflows from the MBS market, while lower yields could lead to increased prepayment rates, complicating the risk-return trade-off for investors [7]

鉴于美国国内对经济增长放缓和关税导致物价上涨的担忧，我们于3月26日开展了一项针对投资组合的情 景分析，详见本文。 点击图片查看大图 从市场角度来看，我们通过美国零息债券通胀率（反映通胀掉期市场预期的通胀水平）和美国盈亏平衡通 胀率（基于5年期固定期限国债计算的通胀预期）来评估通胀预期。这两个指标在过去六个月内持续上 自2024年9月起，美国通胀率持续攀升，直到今年2月势头才有所放缓。但根据纽约联邦储备银行的微观 经济数据中心和《消费预期调查》(Survey of Consumer Expectations) 显示，消费者对生活必需品价格上 涨以及未来一年因关税而加剧的通胀仍感担忧。 升。 点击图片查看大图 在美国经济增长预期下滑的当下，亚特兰大联邦储备银行对2025年第一季度GDP负增长的预测加剧了市 场对经济衰退的担忧。尽管美国并未真正陷入衰退，但市场对美国经济衰退的担忧仍在增长。 一般来说，经济衰退是指经济活动大幅衰减，连续两个季度GDP负增长通常被视为衰退。美国国家经济 研究局将经济衰退定义为持续几个月以上、在多个经济领域发生的全面性经济活动下滑，其他指标包括 GDP、就业率、工业产出以及消费支出。 ...

施罗德投资金属基金经理James Luke指，黄金的基本面长期已经呈现正面迹象。通过有效地摆脱美国作 为储备货币发行国的角色，美国总统特朗普正在为这些趋势加码。长期的环球地缘政治及财政趋势有可 能推动黄金市场出现强劲的牛市，但须重申，如果金价不大幅上升，黄金市场的规模根本不足以吸收在 全球同步出现的买盘。特朗普正在加速并增强这项全球同步竞标的潜力。 特朗普保护主义具滞胀特质 黄金受惠关税致资金回流 施罗德投资表示，在基本预测情景下，特朗普的保护主义议程具有周期性滞胀特质。滞胀为风险资产带 来痛苦，但往往非常利好黄金。从整个大局来看可能更具震撼性。通过根据贸易逆差规模而非实际的贸 易障碍建议征收高额关税，特朗普明确表示，美国想要的不是自由贸易，而是平衡贸易。这种对贸易逆 差的排斥是对全球化最严厉的谢绝，亦可视为对以美元为中心的环球货币体系实质上的排斥。 在12个月前，预测2030年黄金达到5000美元/盎司的价格并不令人感到夸张。现在，这个价格则显得较 为保守。 黄金作为货币资产而非大宗商品资产而上涨 对于黄金股票而言，目前的价格很有可能转化为广泛股票市场中任何行业板块最大的盈利和自由现金流 增长。尽管如此，投 ...

Core Insights - The gold market is currently experiencing significant volatility, but long-term supportive factors for gold prices remain intact [1][10] Group 1: Central Bank Activities - Global central banks play a crucial role in the gold market, providing essential support for gold prices. In Q1 2025, global central bank net gold purchases reached 244 tons, with China continuously increasing its gold reserves [3] - Emerging market countries are driven by various factors such as "de-dollarization," optimizing foreign exchange reserves, and enhancing currency credibility, leading to sustained demand for gold [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Although geopolitical tensions have eased, potential risks persist. Issues such as U.S.-China relations, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and India-Pakistan tensions remain uncertain and could escalate [4] - Should geopolitical tensions rise again, market risk aversion will likely increase, making gold a preferred safe-haven asset and driving up its price [4] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy faces concerns of "stagflation," with slowing growth and persistent inflation pressures. Although current inflation data appears moderate, future inflation may rise due to tariff effects and uneven global economic recovery [6] - If inflation increases, real interest rates will decline, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold, thereby enhancing its appeal as an inflation hedge [6][7] Group 4: Dollar Trends and Federal Reserve Policy - The relationship between the dollar and gold prices is typically negative. Recently, the dollar index rebounded from 98.35 to 101.97, creating upward pressure on the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold [8] - Uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve monetary policy contributes to volatility in the gold market. Divergent statements from Fed officials regarding interest rate hikes and cuts complicate market predictions [8] Group 5: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Despite recent fluctuations in the gold market, core factors supporting gold price increases, such as central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and inflation uncertainties, remain [10] - Short-term market dynamics, including market sentiment, dollar trends, and Federal Reserve policies, will continue to influence gold prices, leading to high volatility [10]

值得庆幸的是，此后所谓的对等关税被暂停实施 90 天。这一举措让布拉德对局势的发展多了一份乐观，他认为这为特朗普政府争取到了宝贵的时间，使其 有机会在对美国经济造成不可挽回的损害之前，通过谈判达成合理的贸易协议。不过，他也强调："但他们必须继续推进(贸易谈判)。" 目前，白宫不仅与中 国达成了 90 天的关税豁免期，还在积极推进与其他国家的贸易谈判，试图消除特朗普口中的 "贸易壁垒"。 dbg盾博发现在全球经济紧密相连的当下，美国的贸易政策变动总能引发轩然大波。特朗普推出的 "解放日" 关税，犹如一颗重磅炸弹，在国际市场掀起巨 浪。不到一周，前圣路易斯联储主席吉姆・布拉德(Jim Bullard)在电视上的一番言论，更是让各界对美国贸易政策的走向充满担忧与警惕。 吉姆・布拉德提及的《斯姆特 - 霍利关税法》，在美国经济历史上堪称 "臭名昭著"。这部于 1930 年出台的法案，作为典型的保护主义贸易政策，大幅提高 了数千种美国进口商品的关税。这一举措如同打开了潘多拉魔盒，迅速引发了一场全球性的贸易战。众多历史学家指出，这场贸易战对当时的世界经济造成 了毁灭性打击，不仅严重阻碍了国际贸易的正常流通，更使得全球经济 ...