南华金属日报:金涨银震 美联储独立性面临挑战 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月27日 【行情回顾】 周二贵金属市场金涨银震，美指略微回调，美债收益率回落，欧股下跌美股上涨，比特币回升，原油明显下 跌，南华有色金属指数震荡。最终COMEX黄金2512合约收报3443.2美元/盎司，+0.75%；美白银2509合约 收报于38.69美元/盎司，-0.02%。 SHFE黄金2510主力合约收781.12元/克，+0.28%；SHFE白银2510合约 收9354元/千克，+0.11%。周二亚洲早盘，贵金属快速拉涨，因特朗普签署文件罢免美联储理事库克，且立 刻生效，升温美联储降息预期。据外媒报道，特朗普政府正在权衡影响地区联邦储备银行的方案，并加强对 地方联储主席选拔方式的审查，如果特朗普罢免美联储理事库克的决定在法庭上得到支持，那么美联储独立 性将面临进一步挑战，对贵金属特别是货币属性显著的黄金而言有望形成新利多，因货币宽松预期、通胀预 期及美元信誉下降预期等。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 年内降息预期略有升温。据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the political interference in the independence of the Federal Reserve, highlighted by the dismissal of board member Lisa Cook, which poses risks to U.S. monetary policy and global financial stability [1][4][8] - Trump's actions are seen as an attempt to reshape the Federal Reserve's governance structure, potentially allowing him to control the majority of the board and influence monetary policy direction [2][3][5] - The legal basis for Cook's dismissal is questionable, as experts argue that the reasons cited do not meet the legal standards for removal, which could lead to significant judicial challenges [2][5][6] Group 2 - The market reaction to the dismissal has been mixed, with short-term interest rates falling while long-term rates rise, indicating investor uncertainty about future monetary policy and inflation risks [6][7] - The potential erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence could undermine the credibility of the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency, impacting global financial stability [8][9] - Key upcoming events, such as the federal court's ruling on Cook's dismissal and the September FOMC meeting, will be critical in determining the future direction of U.S. monetary policy and the Federal Reserve's governance [8][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, Trump's attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Cook has intensified the threat to the Fed's independence; he plans to impose high - tariffs on furniture and restrict exports and impose tariffs on foreign digital taxes. France faces political turmoil, with the government potentially facing reshuffle or early elections. The dollar index fell, the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield declined, and gold prices rose [2]. - Domestically, the State Council issued an opinion on the "Artificial Intelligence +" action. A - shares closed down with shrinking volume, and the bond market is expected to recover as stock market sentiment may peak [3]. - For precious metals, Trump's dismissal of Cook has boosted the price of gold due to increased concerns about the Fed's independence and rising expectations of a Fed rate cut. Short - term precious metal prices are expected to be volatile and strong [4][5]. - For copper, Trump's move to dismiss Cook has weakened the dollar index. With high expectations of preventive rate cuts and cost support, copper prices will be volatile and strong in the short term [6][7]. - For aluminum, despite the dismissal of Cook and the resulting impact on the dollar index, stable supply and expected consumption in the peak season will keep aluminum prices volatile and favorable [8]. - For alumina, after the digestion of previous macro - benefits, with stable production capacity and increased inventory, alumina prices will be volatile and weak, but cost and policy expectations will limit the downside [9]. - For zinc, Trump's action and French political turmoil have dampened market risk appetite. Although domestic refinery maintenance will relieve supply pressure, consumption has not improved, and zinc prices will be volatile in the short term [10]. - For lead, due to refinery maintenance and low - load operation, lead prices have moved up, but lack of consumption improvement and resistance at integer levels will limit the upside [11][12][13]. - For tin, with weak supply and demand, although there was a technical breakthrough, weak market risk appetite will limit the upside of tin prices [14]. - For lithium carbonate, with resource disturbances and expected production increases overseas, and uncertain demand, lithium prices will be volatile [15][16]. - For nickel, under the Fed's dovish expectations, nickel prices have moved up at night, but with lackluster spot markets and limited fundamental support, the upside is limited [17][18]. - For crude oil, due to geopolitical risks and concerns about OPEC +'s production increase plan, oil prices will be volatile [19]. - For steel products, with shrinking trade volume, weak demand for rebar, and电炉 steel mills in the red, steel prices will test cost support and be volatile [20]. - For iron ore, with a slight decline in inventory, stable supply, and resilient demand, iron ore prices will be volatile [21]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, with an enhanced expectation of a U.S. soybean harvest and sufficient domestic supply in the short term, soybean meal prices will be range - bound [22]. - For palm oil, due to Trump's actions, geopolitical factors, and a decline in Malaysian palm oil production in August, palm oil prices will be volatile and adjust [23][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump's attempt to dismiss Cook has caused a legal battle, threatening the Fed's independence. He also announced trade agreements with Europe, Japan, and South Korea and plans to impose high - tariffs on furniture. France's budget - cutting plan has been opposed, leading to a decline in stocks and bonds. The dollar index fell to 98.2, the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield dropped to 4.26%, and gold and copper prices rose while oil prices fell by more than 2% [2]. - Domestic: The State Council issued an opinion on the "Artificial Intelligence +" action. A - shares closed down with shrinking volume, and the bond market is expected to recover as stock market sentiment may peak [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures rose 0.75% to $3443.20 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.02% to $38.70 per ounce. Trump's dismissal of Cook has increased concerns about the Fed's independence and expectations of a rate cut, driving investors to gold [4]. - Short - term precious metal prices are expected to be volatile and strong, waiting for the release of U.S. PCE data [5]. 3.3 Copper - On Tuesday, Shanghai copper's main contract was volatile and strong. The spot market had average trading volume, and the LME inventory remained at 155,000 tons. Trump's dismissal of Cook has weakened the dollar index, and there are high expectations of preventive rate cuts [6]. - With cost support from production cuts by Codelco and other factors, copper prices will be volatile and strong in the short term [7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Tuesday, Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 20,705 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The LME closed at $2,638.5 per ton, up 0.63%. Trump's dismissal of Cook has affected the dollar index, and with stable supply and expected consumption in the peak season, aluminum prices will be volatile and favorable [8]. 3.5 Alumina - On Tuesday, the main alumina futures contract closed at 3,069 yuan/ton, down 3.49%. After the digestion of previous macro - benefits, with stable production capacity and increased inventory, alumina prices will be volatile and weak, but cost and policy expectations will limit the downside [9]. 3.6 Zinc - On Tuesday, Shanghai zinc's main contract was volatile and weak during the day and slightly moved up at night. Global zinc market supply was in surplus from January to June 2025. Trump's action and French political turmoil have dampened market risk appetite, and although domestic refinery maintenance will relieve supply pressure, consumption has not improved, and zinc prices will be volatile in the short term [10]. 3.7 Lead - On Tuesday, Shanghai lead's main contract was volatile and strong during the day and gave back some gains at night. Global lead market supply was in surplus from January to June 2025. Due to refinery maintenance and low - load operation, lead prices have moved up, but lack of consumption improvement and resistance at integer levels will limit the upside [11][12][13]. 3.8 Tin - On Tuesday, Shanghai tin's main contract was narrowly volatile during the day and closed up at night. With weak supply and demand, although there was a technical breakthrough, weak market risk appetite will limit the upside of tin prices [14]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - On Tuesday, lithium carbonate was volatile and weak. With resource disturbances and expected production increases overseas, and uncertain demand, lithium prices will be volatile [15][16]. 3.10 Nickel - On Tuesday, nickel prices were volatile and rose significantly at night. With the Fed's dovish expectations, nickel prices have moved up at night, but with lackluster spot markets and limited fundamental support, the upside is limited [17][18]. 3.11 Crude Oil - On Tuesday, crude oil was volatile and weak. Geopolitical risks and concerns about OPEC +'s production increase plan will keep oil prices volatile [19]. 3.12 Steel Products - On Tuesday, steel futures were volatile and weak. With shrinking trade volume, weak demand for rebar, and电炉 steel mills in the red, steel prices will test cost support and be volatile [20]. 3.13 Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures were volatile and adjusted. With a slight decline in inventory, stable supply, and resilient demand, iron ore prices will be volatile [21]. 3.14 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures closed down. With an enhanced expectation of a U.S. soybean harvest and sufficient domestic supply in the short term, soybean meal prices will be range - bound [22]. 3.15 Palm Oil - On Tuesday, palm oil futures closed down. High - frequency data showed a decline in Malaysian palm oil production from August 1 - 25. With Trump's actions and geopolitical factors, palm oil prices will be volatile and adjust [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank indicates that if Trump successfully gains control of the FOMC majority, it could lead to more aggressive monetary easing policies and the ability to bypass FOMC decisions through technical means [1]. Group 1: Control of the Federal Reserve Board - The Trump administration is seeking to control the majority of the Federal Reserve Board by dismissing Governor Cook, which could provide powerful tools to enforce monetary easing policies [1][2]. - With the resignation of Governor Kuttner, Trump has gained increasing support for easing policies within the committee [1]. - The appointment of a dovish candidate to replace Kuttner is expected to add another voice advocating for easing in upcoming policy debates [1]. Group 2: Internal Pressure for Easing - The Federal Reserve Board could have four stable dovish votes, constituting a majority among the seven board seats, which would significantly increase internal pressure for faster and larger rate cuts [3]. - A board with a majority would have a stronger collective voice, potentially constraining Fed Chair Powell and other cautious members, even amid high inflation data [3]. Group 3: Bypassing FOMC Decisions - The majority on the board could directly influence the Interest Rate on Reserve Balances (IORB), which is a key tool that the board controls, allowing for unilateral actions to lower rates [4][5]. - Historically, the board has aligned IORB with FOMC targets, but this is a convention rather than a legal requirement, allowing for potential deviations [4]. Group 4: Restructuring the FOMC - The board's majority also holds the long-term power to reshape the FOMC voting member composition by approving or denying the reappointment of regional Fed presidents every five years [6][7]. - A board seeking aggressive easing could use this power to eliminate hawkish voices from the FOMC, thereby paving the way for long-term easing policies [7].

中信期货分析认为，美国劳动力市场趋势下行，9月美联储降息周期有望重启。美联储未来1-2季度海外 流动性维持扩张趋势，且市场可能阶段性交易美联储独立性的风险，这都对黄金趋势形成利多支撑。风 险在于全球权益市场整体表现强势，新兴市场尤甚，强劲的风险偏好使得复苏交易抬头，贵金属市场吸 引力下降。但基本面的弱现实并未逆转，在此阶段信心或有摇摆。降息+基本面下行的类滞涨组合更利 好黄金，若逻辑切换为降息+复苏组合，黄金的弹性将会受限，白银将更为受益。 8月26日，特朗普宣布解雇美联储理事库克，美联储独立性受质疑，避险情绪升温，金价持续走强创近 两周新高，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货涨0.75%报3443.20美元/盎司，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏 (518850)涨0.27%，近10个交易日有8个交易日获资金净申购，累计获资金布局1.97亿，黄金股 ETF(159562)涨0.92%。 消息面上，8月26日美国总统特朗普发布致美联储理事库克的信称，解除美联储理事库克的职务，立即 生效。特朗普在信中提及抵押贷款相关指控，称有充分理由解除库克的职务。美联储理事库克表示，特 朗普无权将她从美联储解雇，她也不会辞职。 ...

Group 1 - The unprecedented dismissal of a Federal Reserve governor by the President indicates a significant fracture in the Federal Reserve's institutional integrity [2] - Market reactions include a decline in the dollar due to concerns over the Fed's independence, while U.S. stocks saw a slight increase as expectations for a rate cut in September rose from 84% to 87% [2] - The market's response is characterized as cautious, with investors hesitant to make bold moves due to the lack of historical precedent for such an event [2][5] Group 2 - Medium-term risks are underestimated, with potential increases in U.S. Treasury yields due to credit risk premiums not yet being fully priced in by the market [3] - Long-term implications suggest structural damage to the dollar's creditworthiness, as the Fed's independence has been a cornerstone of the global financial order since the 1990s [4] Group 3 - The market is currently in a wait-and-see mode regarding the outcome of the court ruling between Cook and Trump, which could either maintain the Fed's independence or lead to a significant market downturn [5] - The report highlights a broader analysis of global markets, including insights on the Chinese stock market and various asset classes, indicating a comprehensive approach to market evaluation [6][7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The legal dispute surrounding the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump raises significant questions about the authority of the presidency over Federal Reserve appointments and the potential implications for monetary policy independence [2][11]. Group 1: Legal Proceedings - Lisa Cook's attorney announced plans to file a lawsuit against President Trump, claiming he lacks the authority to dismiss her without just cause, as defined by the Federal Reserve Act [2][5]. - The lawsuit could potentially escalate to the Supreme Court, as the Federal Reserve Act stipulates that a president can only remove a board member for "just cause," traditionally interpreted as serious misconduct [2][4]. - Cook may seek an injunction to restore her position while the lawsuit is ongoing [3]. Group 2: Allegations and Context - The dismissal follows allegations from Bill Pulte, who accused Cook of making false statements on mortgage applications to secure better loan terms, which reportedly occurred before her appointment to the Federal Reserve [4][5]. - Trump's notification of Cook's dismissal referenced these allegations, which Cook has publicly denied, asserting that there is no legal basis for her removal [5][6]. Group 3: Implications for Federal Reserve - Trump's actions signify an attempt to exert greater control over the Federal Reserve, potentially reshaping its board to align with his economic policies, particularly his preference for lower interest rates [7][11]. - If Trump successfully replaces Cook, he would hold a majority on the seven-member Federal Reserve Board, which could significantly influence future monetary policy decisions [11]. - The Federal Reserve has stated it will comply with any court ruling regarding Cook's status, emphasizing the importance of board members' long-term tenure and protection from arbitrary dismissal [10]. Group 4: Political Reactions - The move has drawn criticism from Democratic lawmakers, who view it as an unlawful power grab that undermines the independence of the Federal Reserve [11]. - Elizabeth Warren, a prominent Democratic senator, condemned the dismissal as a desperate attempt by Trump to deflect blame for economic issues facing Americans [11].

随着美国总统特朗普继续寻求扩大行政权力范围，他解雇美联储理事可能引发一场持久的法律战。 美东时间8月26日，美联储理事丽莎·库克的律师阿贝·洛厄尔宣布，将对特朗普解雇前者的行为提起诉讼。 特朗普在一天之前以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由解雇库克。面对白宫这一"史无前例"的做法，洛厄尔称，特朗普 仅凭一封意见信就试图解雇她，缺乏任何事实或法律依据。 美联储发言人也发表声明，称国会在1913年通过的《联邦储备法》规定，总统只有在"有正当理由"的情况下才能 解雇理事，理事的长期任期和免职保护是重要的保障，确保货币政策决策基于数据、经济分析和美国人民的长远 利益。美联储将继续履行法律赋予的职责，也将遵守法院裁决结果。 随后，特朗普也称会遵守裁决，他已有接替库克的合适人选，可能会让白宫经济顾问委员会主席米兰转任美联储 其他长期职位。米兰已被提名担任美联储理事。 今年61岁的库克于2022年5月被时任总统拜登任命为美联储理事，是美联储首位非裔女性理事。她的任期原本应到 2038年结束。她一直支持美联储观望，拒绝因特朗普施压而降息。 行政、立法、司法相互牵制，是美国政治制度的核心原则。然而目前最高法院由保守派大法官占多数。自特朗 ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration is exploring ways to increase its influence over the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks, potentially extending its power beyond personnel appointments in Washington [1][2] - President Trump dismissed Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, which could allow him to gain a majority on the seven-member Federal Reserve Board if upheld in court [1][2] - The selection and reappointment process for regional Fed presidents is overseen by regional boards and the Board of Governors, and if the government can review these processes, it would mark a significant step in influencing monetary policy [1][2] Group 2 - Economists suggest that the White House is scrutinizing every aspect to find ways to change the Federal Reserve, with a focus on the reappointment voting of regional Fed presidents [2] - The goal of the Trump administration is not to make the Federal Reserve more dovish but to closely examine the selection and review process for regional Fed presidents, as these positions do not require Senate confirmation [2][3] - Former Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard warned that any political moves to dismiss multiple regional Fed presidents could exacerbate inflation and raise long-term interest rates [2][3] Group 3 - Brainard stated that attempts to alter the overall voting results of the FOMC represent an unprecedented challenge to the independence of the Federal Reserve [3] - Since returning to the White House, Trump has consistently called for interest rate cuts, but under Jerome Powell's leadership, the Fed has maintained the benchmark rate due to concerns over inflation from Trump's tariff policies [3][4] - Trump's economic team believes the Fed failed to effectively regulate the economy before the 2008 financial crisis but gained more power afterward, criticizing its slow response to inflation in 2021-22 and the subsequent Silicon Valley Bank collapse [4] Group 4 - Trump indicated that his nominated candidates would soon hold a majority on the Federal Reserve Board, supporting his desire for significant interest rate cuts [5] - He emphasized that achieving a majority vote would improve housing issues, stating that high loan rates are the primary problem that needs addressing [5]

特朗普周一晚间在"真实社交"（Truth Social）宣布立即解雇库克，试图动摇央行公信力。然而，其法律 权限受到质疑。 纽约梅隆银行（BNY）董事总经理兼市场策略与洞察主管罗伯特·萨维奇（Robert Savage）表示，解雇 库克是"对美国总统权力的历史性考验"。他在一份电子邮件中称，对美联储独立性的信任丧失将对美国 债券和美元构成长期风险，这限制了投资者的避险选择。 美国总统特朗普采取行动欲解雇美联储理事会的一名成员，此举可能削弱人们对美元和美国国债的信 心，同时提升黄金及其他被视为避险资产的吸引力。 海洋公园资产管理公司（Ocean Park Asset Management）的詹姆斯•圣•奥宾（James St. Aubin）说，"美 联储的独立性是其招牌，解雇理事的举动是对美联储不受政治动机干扰制定货币政策能力的直接攻击。 当你开始削弱对全球储备货币货币政策的信心时，你就是在玩火。如果市场认为美联储在根据直接政治 影响制定政策，美国资产将失去吸引力。" 他指出，美联储"本质上是政治机构，不仅因为理事会由总统任命并经参议院确认，而且我们的整个货 币体系如今都具有政治性质。我们不再拥有以黄金为支撑的 ...