Copper - LME copper experienced a high and then a pullback, with domestic refined copper imports remaining unprofitable [3][12] - LME inventory decreased by 1,750 tons to 137,225 tons, while Comex inventory increased by 2,215 tons to 472,140 tons [3][12] - Domestic demand for copper is cautious, with transactions primarily based on immediate needs, despite optimistic sentiment in the precious metals market [3][12] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel rose by 2.12% to $18,075 per ton, while SHFE nickel fell by 0.04% to 141,520 yuan per ton [4][13] - LME inventory decreased by 228 tons to 284,562 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 814 tons to 39,670 tons [4][13] - Indonesia plans to adjust nickel quotas based on industry demand to support local prices, but specific quota levels for 2026 remain undisclosed [4][13][14] Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum & Aluminum Alloys - Alumina prices showed a slight decline, with AO2605 settling at 2,821 yuan per ton, down 0.63% [6][15] - SHFE aluminum fluctuated positively, with AL2603 closing at 24,630 yuan per ton, up 0.18% [6][15] - The aluminum market is experiencing inventory accumulation, with expectations of continued production despite recent export tax adjustments [6][15] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon showed a slight increase, with the main contract at 8,755 yuan per ton, up 0.75% [7][16] - Polysilicon prices weakened, with the main contract at 49,995 yuan per ton, down 2.89% [7][16] - Inventory dynamics are shifting, with hidden stock levels increasing and speculative trading sentiment cooling [7][16] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures hit a limit up at 156,060 yuan per ton, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rising by 12,000 yuan to 152,000 yuan per ton [8][17] - Weekly production increased by 115 tons to 22,535 tons, with various lithium extraction methods showing growth [8][17] - Despite rising raw material prices potentially suppressing demand, strong market expectations and low downstream inventory suggest a bullish outlook for lithium prices [8][17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that gold prices surged due to rising risk aversion stemming from concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and escalating geopolitical tensions, with gold futures closing at $4608.8 per ounce, a 2.4% increase [1] - The U.S. Department of Justice's threat to pursue criminal charges regarding Powell's testimony about the $2.5 billion renovation project at the Federal Reserve's Washington headquarters has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, which could undermine the credibility of the U.S. financial system [1] - As a result of these developments, investors are increasingly turning to gold as a safe haven, reflecting a shift in market sentiment away from the dollar, which has seen its new year gains halted [1] Group 2 - The performance of gold-related ETFs was positive, with the Huaxia Gold ETF rising by 1.94%, the Gold Stock ETF increasing by 1.64%, and the Nonferrous Metals ETF gaining 1.36% [1] - Market strategist Marc Chandler noted that the subpoena incident overshadowed geopolitical factors, indicating a significant shift in investor focus towards gold amid growing economic uncertainty [1]

鲍威尔当天发表声明回应说，美国联邦检察官对其相关指控都是"借口"，直言遭调查是因为美联储"没 有遵从总统意愿"来设定利率。有分析认为，特朗普政府试图通过"盘外招"影响美联储，可能导致外界 担心美国货币政策受到政治压力影响，动摇市场对美联储政策的信心。 为何受指控 此次调查涉及的翻修项目自拜登政府时期开始动工，涉及美联储两栋主要办公楼。有美国媒体报道，翻 修项目在2019年的最初预算为大约19亿美元，但因木材、钢铁和水泥等建筑材料成本大幅上涨，预算增 至近25亿美元，超出预算额约32%，被指搞"豪华装修"。 特朗普多次因美联储货币政策公开批评鲍威尔。针对翻修项目，特朗普多次提及工程"成本超支"，批评 鲍威尔"无能"。 鲍威尔去年6月接受国会质询时承认翻新项目支出超预算，但否认豪华装修指控，辩称翻新是为满足"安 全性和现代化"要求。 去年7月初，特朗普政府以"存在政治立场偏差"和"在国会做虚假陈述"为由，要求国会调查鲍威尔，指 控鲍威尔牵头的美联储办公大楼翻新项目存在重大违规嫌疑，称鲍威尔在接受国会相关质询时刻意隐瞒 事实、采取消极态度，应当予以"免职追责"。 特朗普当地时间11日接受美国全国广播公司采访时表示， ...

Core Viewpoint - Major bond investment institutions warn that the Trump administration's attacks on the Federal Reserve's independence contradict its goal of lowering interest rates [1][7]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Sentiment - The market remains resilient but risks persist, indicating investor confidence in legal and political processes protecting the Fed's independence [4][6]. - Despite concerns over the Fed's credibility, the bond market maintains recent ranges, suggesting buyers are willing to enter at appropriate price levels [4]. - The futures market shows traders still expect only two rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points, indicating that government pressure is unlikely to affect the Fed's near-term rate decisions [4][6]. Group 2: Implications of Government Pressure - The pressure from the Trump administration is creating market instability, with the potential to keep Treasury yields elevated, thus increasing costs for mortgages, corporate loans, and other forms of credit [7]. - The government's actions contradict its goal of lowering long-term yields, as questioning the Fed's independence may lead to higher yields instead [7]. - Analysts believe that if investors fear inflation eroding investment value, they will demand higher long-term yields as compensation, which could drive key foreign buyers away from the U.S. market [8].

信贷评级机构惠誉表示，美联储的独立性是惠誉给予美国主权评级AA+的关键支持因素。惠誉指，在 评估美国主权评级时，将继续关注包括机构制衡在内的治理演变，以及美联储在实现低通胀和稳定通胀 方面的表现。除了惠誉外，标普全球也将美联储的公信力作为美国主权评级的重要支持。去年10月一份 报告中指出，如果政治发展削弱美国制度的稳健性、长期决策的有效性或美联储的独立性，届时美国的 评级可能面临压力。日前，美国司法部对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the political tensions surrounding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, particularly the threat of a criminal investigation by the Trump administration, which has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and its ability to set monetary policy based on economic conditions rather than political pressure [5][6][8]. Group 1: Political Reactions - Several former Federal Reserve chairs and Treasury secretaries have publicly supported Powell, condemning the investigation as an unprecedented attack on the independence of the Fed, which could have severe negative impacts on the economy [6][7]. - Republican Senator Thom Tillis criticized the Trump administration's actions, suggesting they undermine the credibility of both the Justice Department and the Federal Reserve, and he plans to oppose any Fed nominations until the investigation is resolved [7][8]. - Democratic leaders have accused the Trump administration of using the Justice Department to influence the Fed for political gain ahead of the midterm elections, potentially jeopardizing the economic stability [8]. Group 2: Market Implications - The investigation could lead to increased inflation expectations, which may drive interest rates higher, negatively impacting U.S. stock valuations, particularly in sectors sensitive to discount rate changes [10]. - The U.S. dollar may face downward pressure as confidence in the U.S. economic policy framework weakens, potentially benefiting alternative assets like gold and cryptocurrencies as investors seek hedges against political interference [10][11]. - Market predictions indicated a nearly 70% chance that Powell might leave the Federal Open Market Committee before his term ends in May, but if he withstands the investigation, he may remain on the Board of Governors [10].

美联储主席鲍威尔打破多年克制，选择将司法调查与政治施压公开化，直指特朗普政府以刑事指控威胁 迫使美联储降息。 1月12日，"新美联储通讯社"、华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos在最新文章中写道， 鲍威尔于上周五收到 大陪审团传票，律师出身的他，整个周末都在与顾问商讨应对策略。到周日，他做出了决定：公开披露 调查，并以异常严厉的措辞回应。这一举动打破了美联储主席通常保持的外交辞令和中立立场。 Timiraos表示，鲍威尔选择将此事公之于众，意在防止此前私下施加的压力继续被掩盖。披露相关调查 的决定，显然基于一种判断：公众有权知情。对美联储现任主席提起诉讼的潜在威胁，对于投资者以及 任何试图理解利率决策背后多重影响因素的人而言，都是至关重要的信息。 一些特朗普盟友曾预期压力会迫使鲍威尔在其主席任期于5月结束前提前辞职，而鲍威尔周日的回击释 放出"不会退让"的信号。 鲍威尔的策略转变：从隐忍到公开反击 Timiraos表示，通过公开披露调查，鲍威尔确保私下施加的压力无法继续保密。这一决定似乎反映出他 认为公众应该了解正在发生的事情：对现任美联储主席的起诉威胁对投资者或任何试图理解影响利率决 策力量的人来说都是 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market saw a collective slight increase, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices reaching historical highs, closing at 69.77.27 and 49,590.20 respectively [4][20] - Major Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increasing by 4.26%, and Alibaba rising over 10% [4][20] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve were reignited as the U.S. Department of Justice threatened to file criminal charges against Chairman Jerome Powell, leading to a general rise in metal prices, including gold and silver reaching record highs [4][20] Group 2 - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on any country conducting business with Iran, effective immediately, which could impact global trade dynamics [5][21] - Trump is expected to interview Rick Riedel for the position of Federal Reserve Chairman, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy direction [7][23] - A coalition of former U.S. financial officials criticized the Trump administration's criminal investigation into Powell, emphasizing the importance of the Fed's independence for economic stability [8][24] Group 3 - Precious metals prices surged to new historical highs, driven by concerns over Powell's potential criminal investigation, which undermines the Fed's independence and creates uncertainty in monetary policy [10][26] - Analysts suggest that the weakening of the Fed's independence could lead to a decline in confidence in the U.S. dollar, indirectly boosting precious metal prices [10][26] - The upcoming appointment of a new Fed Chairman may significantly influence future monetary policy and the Fed's independence [10][26] Group 4 - The outlook for precious metals is supported by expectations of monetary easing, which could lower U.S. Treasury yields and market interest rates, enhancing gold's investment appeal [11][27] - The potential for a new Fed Chairman to adopt a more dovish stance could further influence market expectations and precious metal prices [12][28] - Analysts are monitoring key signals, including the new Fed Chairman's policy stance and upcoming U.S. elections, which could impact precious metal markets [12][28] Group 5 - The recent surge in tin prices is attributed to positive macroeconomic sentiment and increased speculative buying, with expectations of sustained high prices due to tight supply conditions [14][30] - Tin is viewed as a "strategic metal" linked to the growth of semiconductor sales and electric vehicle penetration, indicating strong future demand [14][30] - Analysts predict that 2026 will mark a transition from tight to loose supply for tin concentrate, necessitating close attention to supply changes in the second quarter [15][31]

多位前美联储主席、前财政部长周一联合发声，对鲍威尔表示支持。 在国会，民主党指责此举是共和党为中期选举谋划，共和党内部也出现裂痕，两名参议员扬言将以阻止 特朗普提名的央行人选作为反击。 质疑声浪起 特朗普政府威胁起诉美联储主席鲍威尔在美国学界和政界引发反对声浪，多位前美联储主席、前财政部 长周一联合发声，对鲍威尔表示支持。 上周日，美联储鲍威尔称联邦检察官已向美联储送达大陪审团传票，威胁以其此前就美联储办公大楼多 年翻新项目作证相关事宜提起刑事诉讼。 鲍威尔表示，这一调查是特朗普政府为干预货币政策而持续采取的举措。"刑事指控威胁的产生，源于 美联储始终基于对公众利益的最佳判断来制定利率，而非迎合美国总统特朗普的偏好。此事的核心在 于，美联储未来究竟能否基于实证与经济形势制定利率政策，还是货币政策将沦为政治施压与胁迫的产 物。" 当地时间周一，格林斯潘、伯南克、耶伦等多位前美联储主席，联同鲍尔森、盖特纳等前财长及知名经 济学家发表声明，集体力挺鲍威尔。 "报道称司法部正对美联储主席鲍威尔发起刑事调查，这是前所未有的举动 ——企图借检察手段打压美 联储，损害其独立性。这种操作常见于制度薄弱的新兴市场国家的货币政策 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share trading volume reached a record high of 3.64 trillion yuan, but there are potential regulatory risks and market self - adjustment risks [2][22]. - The investigation of the Fed Chairman by the US Department of Justice has increased market concerns about the Fed's independence, affecting the prices of precious metals, the US dollar index, US stock index futures, and US Treasury bond futures [3][11][16]. - The supply and demand situation of various commodities is different. For example, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills decreased, and the price trends of different metals and energy chemicals are affected by factors such as policies, production, and geopolitical situations [4][37][69]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The investigation of Fed Chairman Powell by the US Department of Justice is considered an excuse by Trump to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates, which has increased market concerns about the Fed's independence [10]. - CME will change the margin setting method for precious metals, which may increase market volatility. It is recommended to wait for a pull - back before making long - term allocations [11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)) - The investigation of Powell has led to criticism from key Republican members, and the market's concern about the Fed's independence has increased, causing the US dollar to weaken. It is expected that the US dollar index will decline in the short term [13][16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Department of Justice is conducting a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, and Trump's tariff policy on Iran has affected the market. Although the market is worried about the Fed's independence, the risk appetite of the US stock market has moderately recovered. It is expected that the US stock market will continue to fluctuate strongly [18][20][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share trading volume reached a record high, but some listed companies' statements cooled the market. It is believed that the probability of regulatory intervention is high, and the market self - adjustment is a risk point. It is recommended to continue holding long - term strategies for stock index futures [22][23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 86.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 36.1 billion yuan. Although the bond market has signs of a rebound, the long - term suppression factors still exist. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up and betting on rebounds and pay attention to short - selling opportunities [24][25]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of Indonesian low - calorie steam coal remained stable, and the coal price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation in January, with limited room for continuous rebound [26][27]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Tata Steel plans to acquire 50.01% of the equity of Thriveni Pellets. The iron ore market is in an oscillation, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate without a clear trend [29]. 3.2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/HRC) - The steel price is oscillating strongly, but the contradiction in the steel market is gradually accumulating. It is recommended to treat the steel price with an oscillating mindset in the short term [32][33]. 3.2.4 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Linfen market remained stable. There is a certain demand for replenishment before the Spring Festival, but the increase in iron water production needs to be monitored [35][36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills decreased, and the USDA reports were bearish. It is expected that the price of soybean meal futures will continue to be weak [37][39][40]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased in early January, and the production decreased. The inventory in December exceeded expectations, but the market has already priced it in. It is expected that the palm oil price will start a rebound [41][44][45]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - The cooperation between Codelco and SQM is expected to achieve a production of 250,000 tons in 2026. The adjustment of the battery export tax - rebate policy is beneficial to the demand for lithium carbonate. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and be cautious for new long positions [47][48][49]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metal (Copper) - The copper premium in Japan reached a record high, and some companies have investment and cooperation plans. The short - term copper price fluctuation is expected to intensify. It is recommended to buy on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [50][53][54]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metal (Nickel) - The domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in Indonesia increased slightly. The market is expected to be bullish, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips [55][56][57]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metal (Lead) - The LME lead price was in a narrow - range oscillation, and the domestic social inventory increased. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [59][60]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metal (Zinc) - Heavy pollution emergency responses were launched in some northern regions. The zinc price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to buy on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [61][63][64]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metal (Tin) - The supply of tin ore is uncertain, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the tin price will continue to oscillate strongly [66][67]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemical (Crude Oil) - Trump's tariff policy on Iran has increased the risk premium of oil prices. Short - term geopolitical conflicts may support oil prices [68][69][70]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemical (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries and social inventories increased. The asphalt price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [70][71]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemical (Urea) - The price of urea is oscillating strongly. The supply is recovering, and the demand is in a wait - and - see state. It is recommended to wait for a reasonable valuation before going long on the 05 contract [73][74]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemical (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports decreased. The price of styrene is strong, but the profit margin is high. Attention should be paid to factors such as tax policies and oil price fluctuations [75][76][77].