Core Insights - The global recession triggered by the trade war remains the largest tail risk for the market, although market tensions eased slightly in August [1] - The latest global fund manager survey indicates that 29% of respondents view trade war recession as the primary threat, down from 38% in July [1] - Inflation risk follows closely with a 27% vote, as fund managers warn that persistent inflation may hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates, potentially suppressing economic growth and risk appetite [1] Risk Factors - Other risk factors include disorderly jumps in bond yields (20%), AI stock bubble (14%), and dollar depreciation (6%) [1] - Despite the narrowing gap between the top two risks, investors remain prepared for a prolonged tightening of policies, with geopolitical and macroeconomic factors still dominating asset allocation [1] Market Sentiment - Although trade sentiment has improved, inflation and yield uncertainties significantly impact interest rate trajectories, which are crucial for equities, credit, and duration strategies [1] - The trade war continues to be a headline risk, but inflation is catching up; upcoming data releases and next month's survey will reveal whether this shift is sustained [1]

Group 1 - The price of gold jewelry from major brands has dropped significantly, with Chow Sang Sang at 1010 yuan per gram, Chow Tai Fook at 1008 yuan, Lao Miao at 1004 yuan, and Saturday's Luck at 988 yuan [1] - Spot gold prices fell below $3350 per ounce, with COMEX gold dropping nearly 2.5% and COMEX silver down over 1.7% [3][5] - Following a significant market fluctuation, President Trump announced that no tariffs would be imposed on imported gold bars, leading to a sharp decline in international gold prices [10][11] Group 2 - The recent volatility in gold prices was influenced by the announcement regarding tariffs, with gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange experiencing a nearly 2.5% drop, marking the largest decline since May [8] - The market is closely monitoring upcoming U.S. inflation data, with expectations that a weaker-than-expected employment report may increase bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [12] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has led to a temporary spike in gold prices, but the removal of this uncertainty may lead to a more bearish outlook for the market [12]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the announcement of a 90-day suspension of the 24% tariffs on Chinese goods by both the US and China, which is seen as a positive step towards stabilizing the macroeconomic environment [1][3] - The US and China are expected to engage in further discussions on issues such as fentanyl tariffs, export controls, and reducing the trade deficit during this 90-day period [3] - Despite the challenges posed by high tariffs, China's exports showed resilience, with a 7.2% year-on-year increase in July, although exports to the US fell by 21.7% [5][6] Group 2 - The bilateral trade between the US and China is projected to exceed $680 billion in 2024, highlighting the significance of their economic relationship [3] - Analysts suggest that the upcoming months may see new policies from China to counteract the impact of US tariffs, including fiscal stimulus and monetary easing [6] - The trade shift phenomenon is becoming prominent in China's exports, helping to stabilize foreign trade amid high tariffs from the US [5]

Group 1 - Gold prices fell below $3350 per ounce, with COMEX gold dropping nearly 2.5% and COMEX silver down over 1.7% [2][4] - The significant drop in gold prices was attributed to reduced safe-haven demand due to potential peace prospects in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the upcoming U.S. inflation report affecting Fed rate cut expectations [4][9] - The New York Commodity Exchange saw a sharp decline in near-month gold futures, falling below $3400 per ounce, marking the largest drop since May [4][5] Group 2 - Following the announcement that the U.S. would not impose tariffs on imported gold bars, gold prices initially surged but later retraced gains as clarity on tariff policies remained uncertain [5][6] - Analysts noted that the current COMEX inventory levels are unusually high, indicating no liquidity issues, and there is speculation that U.S. Customs may revise its stance on tariff codes [6] - The market is closely monitoring upcoming U.S. consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data, with expectations that inflation data could influence Fed's interest rate decisions [6][7] Group 3 - The potential for a more dovish monetary policy from the Fed is anticipated following President Trump's nomination of Stephen Miran to fill a vacancy on the Fed Board [7] - The trade war dynamics, including new tariffs on semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals, are also influencing market sentiment and gold prices [7][8] - The upcoming meeting between President Trump and President Putin is seen as a pivotal moment that could impact gold prices due to its implications for geopolitical stability [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - This report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, the prices of container shipping index (European line) futures mostly declined. The main contract EC2510 closed down 1.48%, and the far - month contracts declined between 1 - 2%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index dropped by 2.7% week - on - week. The continuous decline of spot indicators and the decrease in Maersk's new weekly European line spot cabin opening quotes drove the futures prices down [1]. - Trump's tariff policies and China's counter - measures against the EU have increased the uncertainty of global trade, leading to weak demand expectations for the container shipping index (European line) futures, with large price fluctuations. However, the rapid rise of spot - end price indicators may drive the futures prices to rise in the short term. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Data Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1417.600, down 21.3; EC second - main contract closing price: 1742, down 30.4 [1]. - EC2510 - EC2512 spread: - 324.40, up 16.80; EC2510 - EC2602 spread: - 110.40, down 2.10 [1]. - EC contract basis: 817.88, down 71.18 [1]. - EC main contract open interest: 55954 hands, down 734 [1]. Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 2235.48, down 62.38; SCFIS (US West Coast line) (weekly): 1082.14, down 47.98 [1]. - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1489.68, down 61.06; Container ship capacity: 1227.97 million TEUs, unchanged [1]. - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1200.73, down 31.56; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1799.05, up 9.55 [1]. - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 2051.00, down 13.00; Panama Freight Index (daily): 1635.00, down 21.00 [1]. - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 13075.00, down 218.00; Average charter price (Cape - size ship): 25236.00, down 2232.00 [1]. Economic and Trade News - The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to US - related trade issues, opposing the politicization, instrumentalization and weaponization of science, technology and economic and trade issues, and hoped to achieve positive results on an equal, respectful and reciprocal basis [1]. - Trump put the Washington DC police under federal direct control, deployed the National Guard, and declared a public safety emergency in Washington DC [1]. - After the US imposed tariffs on most Mexican fresh tomatoes, Mexico set a minimum export price for fresh tomatoes [1]. - Trump signed an executive order to modify "reciprocal tariffs" for dozens of countries, with tariff rates ranging from 10% to 41%, and an additional 40% tariff on goods considered to be transshipped to avoid tariffs [1]. - China imposed counter - measures on EU brandy, medical devices and other categories, intensifying Sino - EU trade tensions [1]. Economic Data - The US S&P Global Composite PMI in June dropped slightly from 53 in May to 52.8, with obvious price pressure [1]. - The US retail sales data in June rebounded unexpectedly, with a month - on - month growth rate of 0.6%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 0.1% [1].

近日，美国大幅提高了印度出口到美国的产品关税，双方的谈判前景不明，大量的出口订单被搁置，给印度相关行业带来了巨大的困扰。印度各界表示，美 国对印度加征关税不仅会严重扰乱印美贸易，也会同时造成全球贸易增长疲软。 印度钢铁烧结工协会主席 乌帕迪亚：美国提高关税对金属制品行业的影响巨大，几乎所有美国订单均被取消，因此工作进度也放缓了。现在只有我身后这 些机器，还正在生产美国订单，其他订单都被取消了，货物都积压着。 某金属制品厂负责人 巴韦什·贾因：印度出口商肯定会因关税战而遭受损失，印度政府正在努力与美国政府解决此事，找到一种互惠互利的方式。在同等的 平台上开展业务，但不能以牺牲印度人民的利益为代价，美国正试图在这场贸易战中占据主导地位，他们想向印度市场销售越来越多的产品，这也向印度出 口商发出了一个明确的信号，不要依赖单一市场，试着将产品出口到多个不同国家。 印度出口组织联合会总干事 阿贾伊·萨海：印度出口企业现在正在面临艰难的处境，许多人已经为原材料采购申请了贷款。很多情况下也已经预订了集装箱 舱位，在这种情况下行业肯定会面临问题，我们正在与政府合作寻找解决办法。 印度舆论指出，美国的关税政策不仅会造成全球贸易 ...

Core Points - The U.S. government has reached a special arrangement with Nvidia and AMD, requiring them to pay 15% of their chip sales revenue in China to the government in exchange for export licenses for specific chips like H20 and MI308 [1][2][3] - This arrangement is unprecedented in the U.S. and reflects a transactional approach where companies pay for export permissions, aligning with the Trump administration's pattern of conditional exemptions [3][4] Summary by Sections Arrangement Details - Nvidia and AMD agreed to pay 15% of their sales revenue from China to the U.S. government to obtain export licenses for their respective chips [2][3] - The U.S. Department of Commerce began issuing H20 export licenses shortly after a meeting between Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang and President Trump [3][4] Financial Implications - Analysts estimate that Nvidia could sell 1.5 million H20 chips in China by 2025, generating approximately $23 billion in revenue, leading to a payment of about $3.5 billion to the U.S. government [4][5] - The arrangement effectively turns export licenses into a revenue-generating tool for the U.S. government, which has raised concerns among experts about the implications for U.S. technological leadership [6][7] Background Context - The H20 chip is a downgraded version of Nvidia's AI chip, specifically designed for the Chinese market after previous export restrictions were imposed [4][5] - The timing of this agreement is sensitive, coinciding with ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations, where China is pressuring for relaxed restrictions on high-bandwidth memory chips [6][7] Strategic Considerations - The arrangement merges trade and technology issues, which traditionally have been treated separately in U.S. policy [11][12] - Trump's administration views trade as a security issue, integrating economic and technological considerations into negotiations with China [14][15] Future Outlook - The U.S. may adopt a more nuanced approach to technology export controls, balancing the need to maintain technological superiority while also ensuring revenue generation for the government [24][25] - The long-term implications of this arrangement could lead to increased dependency of Chinese companies on U.S. technology, while also fostering a competitive environment for domestic alternatives [20][21]

Group 1 - Recent gold futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell nearly 2.5%, dropping below $3,400 per ounce, marking the largest decline since May [1] - President Trump announced that gold would not be subject to tariffs, alleviating market concerns regarding potential tariffs on imported gold bars [3] - The U.S. has imposed a 39% tariff on products imported from Switzerland, which plays a significant role in the international gold futures market due to its substantial gold reserves [4] Group 2 - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset has weakened due to the potential ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with investors closely monitoring upcoming U.S. inflation reports [4] - Recent developments in the trade war, including new tariffs on multiple trade partners, have been a significant factor driving gold prices up this year [5] - Traders are increasingly betting on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a probability of 89.4% according to the FedWatch tool [4]

【纠错】 【责任编辑:吴京泽】 中方重申，贸易战没有赢家，保护主义没有出路。施压和威胁不是同中方打交道的正确方式。中方 敦促美方立即纠正错误做法，取消所有对华单边关税措施，停止对华经贸打压，与中方在相互尊重的基 础上，通过平等对话妥善解决分歧。 中方注意到，美东时间4月7日，美方威胁进一步对华加征50%关税，中方对此坚决反对。如果美方 升级关税措施落地，中方将坚决采取反制措施维护自身权益。 美方对华加征所谓"对等关税"毫无根据，是典型的单边霸凌做法，中方已经采取的反制措施是为了 维护自身主权安全发展利益，维护正常的国际贸易秩序，完全是正当之举。美方威胁升级对华关税，是 错上加错，再次暴露了美方的讹诈本质，中方对此绝不接受。如果美方一意孤行，中方必将奉陪到底。 ...

新华社北京7月8日电 经济热点问答｜谈判延期又施压加码 美最新关税动作怎么看 新华社记者俞懋峰 美国总统特朗普7日宣布将从8月1日起分别对来自日本、韩国等14个国家的进口产品征收25%至40%不等的关税，并决定将"对等关税"暂缓 期截止日期延长至8月1日。一些美国媒体将最新系列举措解读为升级贸易战之举。 哪些国家面临美国最新关税威胁？金融市场和贸易伙伴如何回应美方动作？美政府将谈判延期又施压加码背后有何意图？ 7月8日，在日本东京，日本首相石破茂（左）在综合对策总部会议上发言。新华社/共同社 哪些国家面临美最新关税威胁？ 特朗普当天在社交媒体上陆续发布他写给日本、韩国等14国领导人的信函，称将从8月1日起对这些国家征收25%到40%不等的关税。 根据信函，日本、韩国、马来西亚、突尼斯、哈萨克斯坦将被征收25%的关税，南非和波黑将被征收30%的关税，印度尼西亚将被征收32% 的关税，塞尔维亚和孟加拉国将被征收35%的关税，泰国和柬埔寨将被征收36%的关税，老挝和缅甸则面临40%的关税。 同一天，特朗普签署行政令，延长"对等关税"90天暂缓期，将实施时间从7月9日推迟到8月1日。特朗普表示，8月1日的期限不是"1 ...