白银价格昨日开盘在37.708的位置后行情先拉升给出38.079的日线高点后行情强势回落，日线最低给到 了37.473的位置后行情尾盘拉升，日线最终收线在了37.897的位置后行情以一根上下影线等长的纺锤形 态收线，而这样的形态收尾后，今日银价目标看37.85和38。 上行目标：突破39.11美元可能为迈向40.00美元铺平道路，下一个阻力是40.50美元（通道阻力位）。 下行支撑：37.50美元（此前盘整区间高点）、36.82美元（21日EMA）以及36.00美元（通道支撑位）。 周二公布的美国6月PPI数据低于市场预期。整体PPI环比持平，未达到预期的0.2%涨幅，较5月0.3%的 涨幅有所回落。同比来看，PPI降至2.3%，低于预期的2.5%以及5月2.6%的数据。剔除波动性较大的食 品和能源成分的核心PPI同样令人失望，环比为0.0%（预期为0.2%），同比为2.6%，低于预期的2.7%和 5月的3.0%。 在此之前，周二公布的消费者价格指数（CPI）报告显示，整体通胀符合预期，但核心通胀略低于预 期。这些报告共同缓和了市场对美联储激进加息的预期，使美元承压。对于在低收益率环境中表现出色 的白银而言， ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | 点评 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡偏弱，下跌 0.21%至 9637 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力微跌 0.01%至 77950 | | | | | | 元/吨；国内现货进口维系亏损，亏损幅度收窄。宏观方面，美国劳工部数据显示，美 | | | | | | 国 6 月 PPI 同比 2.3%，低于预期 2.5%，这是 2024 年 9 月以来的最低同比涨幅，这表明 | | | | | | 关税影响通胀并不明显。美联储褐皮书显示，经济活动略有增加，较此前改善，就业整 | | | | | | 体"略有上升"，关税政策导致的通胀并未显现，通胀提及次数创四年新低。昨晚美金 | | | | | 铜 | 融市场经历特朗普解雇鲍威尔闹剧，美元指数快速回落，美股也经历较大动荡，铜市场 | | | | | | | 则担忧全球经济前景受阻。库存方面，LME 铜增加 10525 吨至 12.1 万吨；Comex 铜增 | | | | | 加 1062 吨至 21.7 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news indicates that the gold market is currently experiencing a bearish trend, with prices fluctuating around $3336.89 to $3352.19 per ounce, reflecting a slight decline of 0.22% [1] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for June unexpectedly remained flat, contrasting with the market expectation of a 0.2% increase, which suggests that inflationary pressures may be easing, providing support for gold prices [3] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book highlights the widespread impact of tariffs on the economy, with businesses reporting rising cost pressures being passed on to prices, which enhances gold's long-term value as a hedge against inflation [3] Group 2 - The daily gold price chart shows a pattern of highs and lows, indicating a volatile trading environment, with the price reaching a high of $3377 and a low of $3320, suggesting a potential consolidation phase [4] - The Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart are narrowing, indicating limited price movement, with gold prices expected to oscillate between $3370 and $3320 in the short term [5]

摘要今日周四（7月17日)亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于782.80元附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂报 777.00元/克，上涨0.06%，最高触及782.84元/克，最低下探773.64元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向 震荡走势。 今日周四（7月17日)亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于782.80元附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂报777.00元/ 克，上涨0.06%，最高触及782.84元/克，最低下探773.64元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向震荡走 势。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 今日沪金期货需重点关注的关键阻力位区间为783元/克至813元/克，而重要支撑位区间则位于765元/克 至800元/克。 短期美国利率期货继续上涨，交易员增加对美联储降息的押注。消息面上，特朗普暗示将解雇美联储主 席鲍威尔，并已起草解雇信件。 特朗普暗示将要解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，CME"美联储观察"数据显示：美联储7月维持利率不变的概率 为95.3%，降息25个基点的概率为4.7%。美联储9月维持利率不变的概率降至32%，累计降息25个基点的 概率为64.9%，累计降息50个基点的概率为3.1%。 【要闻速递】 报道称特朗普正着手解雇美 ...

Group 1 - The international silver price rose to $37.89 per ounce, an increase of $0.20 or 0.52%, amid new tariffs imposed by the U.S. on 17 countries, adding uncertainty to global trade prospects [1] - The latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that as of July 16, silver ETF holdings decreased by 36.73 tons to 14,819.29 tons [1][2] - The U.S. has announced reciprocal tariffs on major trading partners, including the EU, Japan, Canada, Mexico, and South Korea, due to the failure to reach an agreement during a 90-day tariff truce [2] Group 2 - The U.S. inflation rate surged to 2.7% as a result of rising import prices, raising questions about the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in September [3] - Market experts warn that the current price pressures only reflect the initial impact of tariffs on certain industries, with the full effects of the tariffs yet to be seen [3] - The international silver market experienced fluctuations, with a recent support level identified between $37.30 and $37.50, and a potential drop below $37.30 could lead to testing lower support levels [4]

Core Viewpoint - The current "moderately tight" monetary policy in the U.S. is deemed appropriate, allowing the Federal Reserve to observe economic trends and assess risks for potential policy adjustments [1] Economic Forecast - The economic impact of the Trump administration's increased import tariffs is just beginning to manifest, with inflation expected to rise by approximately 1 percentage point in the second half of the year and early next year [1] - The U.S. economic growth rate is projected to slow down to 1% this year [1] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to increase from the current 4.1% to 4.5% by the end of the year [1] - The inflation rate is expected to remain between 3% and 3.5% for the entire year [1]

Juno markets发现美国银行 7 月发布的全球基金经理调查结果显示，在众多潜在风险中，38% 的受访投 资者将贸易战引发全球经济衰退列为最大的尾部风险事件。尾部风险事件特指那些发生概率较低，但一 旦发生就可能给投资者带来重大损失的事件，其不确定性和破坏性使其成为市场关注的焦点。 从全球经济格局来看，贸易战的阴影始终挥之不去。近年来，主要经济体之间的贸易摩擦不断升级，关 税壁垒层层加高，全球贸易流量增速明显放缓。这种贸易环境的恶化，不仅直接冲击了进出口企业，还 通过全球供应链的传导影响到上下游产业。例如，某国对进口汽车及零部件加征关税，不仅会导致进口 汽车价格上涨，抑制消费需求，还会影响国内汽车组装厂的生产计划，进而导致零部件供应商订单减 少、产能闲置。一旦这种连锁反应在多个行业、多个国家蔓延，就可能引发全球范围内的生产萎缩、就 业减少和需求下降，最终触发经济衰退。 当前，全球经济正处于多重挑战交织的时期，贸易摩擦、通胀压力、货币政策调整等因素相互作用，使 得尾部风险发生的概率和潜在影响都有所上升。美国银行的这份调查为市场敲响了警钟，提醒投资者在 追求收益的同时，必须做好风险管理，通过多元化资产配置、对 ...

周四(7月17日)亚市早盘，现货黄金小幅下跌，现报3342美元/盎司附近。周三(7月16日)，有关美国总统 特朗普计划解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的传闻引发市场剧烈波动，美元一度大跌，随后缩小跌幅;而金价在 飙升后回吐多数涨幅。现货黄金周三收盘上涨0.68%，报3347.32美元/盎司。 特朗普"鲍威尔解雇令"虚惊一场? 美国《纽约时报》周三报道称，美国总统特朗普周二曾在椭圆形办公室，把开除美联储主席鲍威尔的草 稿信拿给一起开会的共和党众议员看。 美国彭博社报道称，特朗普可能即将解雇鲍威尔。 若在鲍威尔任期于明年5月届满前将他解职，可能对美元不利，因这将动摇外界对美国金融体系与美元 避险地位的信心。 Monex USA交易资深总监Juan Perez表示："真正可能摧毁美元价值的，是任何形式对美联储独立性与权 威的攻击。" 但在相关报道出炉后，特朗普本人予以否认。他说："我不排除任何可能，但我认为这非常不可能，除 非他(鲍威尔)因为诈欺而被迫离职。" 特朗普指的是白宫及共和党议员近日批评美联储总部翻新工程耗资25亿美元的争议。 在特朗普否认计划解雇鲍威尔的相关报导后，美元指数自低点显著反弹，缩减日内跌幅;金价则自高点 ...

北京时间16日晚11点左右，主流美媒开始报道有关特朗普将解雇鲍威尔的消息。 16日晚12点左右，特朗普否认计划解雇鲍威尔和解雇信的存在，并称他在此事上比共和党人更保守。特 朗普表示，大概率不会解雇鲍威尔，除非证明其在大楼翻新事件中存在欺诈行为。 评论称，美国6月生产者价格指数持平，缓解了昨日消费者价格指数报告给美联储带来的部分鹰派压 力，美元因此走势震荡。预测人士会结合这两项通胀指标，来估算美联储青睐的个人消费支出物价指数 ——该数据将于本月晚些时候公布。目前只有少量初步迹象显示关税正对部分商品价格构成压力，而上 述数据则暗示PCE可能走软。不确定性或许会让美联储维持当前政策的时间更长，这有可能对美元形成 支撑。 美联储威廉慕斯表示，今年美国经济预计将增长约1%，失业率预计到年底升至4.5%。6月份整体通胀率 可能为2.5%，核心通胀率可能为2.75%。经济面临更多不确定性。关税可能会推动进一步的通胀。目前 经济状况良好，劳动力市场稳健。关税对经济影响尚处"初期阶段"，关税措施应在2025年剩余时间及 2026年期间推动通胀率上升一个百分点。今年通胀率将维持在3%至3.5%之间。就业增长和劳动力供应 都在放缓 ...

Macro Analysis - The inflation data in the US showed a rebound in June, driven by rising oil prices and the increasing impact of tariffs on goods inflation, with expectations that the CPI year-on-year high may exceed 3% in the second half of the year [2] Bond Market - In the first half of 2025, all adjusted convertible bonds had their ratings downgraded, with a decrease in the number of downgrades compared to the previous year; the majority of these bonds were rated AA- or below, with a focus on private enterprises in the basic chemical and computer industries [3] Industry Research Medical Industry - The disposable glove industry is expected to see a price turning point in the third quarter, with a focus on the overseas capacity release of leading domestic companies; as demand grows and costs are controlled, domestic companies are likely to gain global market share [4] Construction and Engineering - The solid-state battery sector is experiencing rapid development, with specific materials like silicon-carbon anodes and high-nickel cathodes likely to benefit; recommended companies include China National Materials, Puyang Refractories, and China Communications Construction [5] Company Research High-end Manufacturing - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 105-120 million yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a significant improvement; the increase is attributed to higher product deliveries and a favorable industry outlook [6] Electronics - The company plans to acquire a 30% stake in Rainbow Optoelectronics, further solidifying its position in the panel industry; profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards due to high depreciation costs, but the outlook remains positive due to recovering market conditions [7] Overseas TMT - Qualcomm is positioned as a leader in wireless communication chips, with expectations to maintain its market share in high-end smartphone SoCs and expand in PC and autonomous driving SoCs; the company is also exploring AI-related markets [8]