Core Insights - The sentiment towards U.S. assets is cautious, with "long gold" being the most crowded trade for the second consecutive month, as 58% of investors believe it is the current most crowded trade [1][3] - Investors' attitudes towards the U.S. dollar have significantly changed, with 57% considering it overvalued, marking the lowest allocation to the dollar since May 2006 [1][7][12] - Despite a slight improvement in global economic outlook, 81% of investors still expect the economy to enter "stagflation" [2][11] Investor Sentiment - 62% of investors view tariffs as the biggest tail risk for a global recession, while 43% believe tariffs could lead to systemic credit events [2][18] - Cash levels among investors have decreased from 4.8% to 4.5%, slightly below the long-term average of 4.7% since 1999 [14] - 61% of investors now expect a "soft landing" for the global economy, a significant increase from 37% in April [14] Asset Allocation Changes - There is a notable shift in asset allocation, with a net 38% of investors underweighting U.S. stocks, the lowest level since May 2023 [23] - European stocks have seen a 13 percentage point increase in allocation to a net 35% overweight, reversing the decline from April [23] - Technology stocks have experienced a significant 17 percentage point increase in allocation, the largest monthly gain since March 2013 [23] - Energy stocks are now at a net 35% underweight, marking a historical low [23] Economic Outlook - A net 59% of investors expect the economy to weaken, showing the largest monthly improvement since October 2024, despite a 66 percentage point drop from the peak in December 2024 [16] - 46% of investors anticipate two interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, while 25% expect three cuts [19]

Group 1 - "Long gold" has become the most crowded trade for the second consecutive month, with 58% of investors considering it the current most crowded trade, significantly higher than the second-ranked "long tech giants" at 22% [2] - Gold is viewed as the most overvalued asset since 2008, with a net 45% of investors believing it is overvalued, an increase from 34% in April [5] - Investor sentiment towards the US dollar has shifted significantly, with a net 17% of investors holding a low allocation stance, marking a 19-year low since May 2006 [8] Group 2 - A net 57% of investors believe the US dollar is overvalued, a decrease of 12 percentage points from the previous month, representing the largest monthly decline since September 2023 [11] - Despite a slight improvement in global investor sentiment, it remains at a pessimistic level, with 61% of investors expecting a "soft landing" for the global economy, up from 37% in April [16] - A net 59% of investors expect the economy to weaken, showing the largest monthly improvement since October 2024, although expectations are still down 66 percentage points from the peak in December 2024 [19] Group 3 - 62% of investors view tariffs as the biggest tail risk for a global recession, with 43% believing tariffs could lead to a systemic credit event, followed by the US shadow banking system at 25% [21] - Investors are significantly adjusting their asset allocations, with a net 38% underweight in US stocks, the lowest level since May 2023, while eurozone stock allocation increased by 13 percentage points to a net 35% overweight [26] - There has been a substantial increase in tech stock allocation by 17 percentage points, marking the largest monthly increase since March 2013, while energy stock allocation has dropped to a net 35% underweight, the lowest on record [26]

Group 1 - The gold sector experienced a slight adjustment, with the Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) down 1.76% and trading volume exceeding 130 million yuan [1] - The Shanghai Gold ETF closely tracks Shanghai Gold (SHAU.SGE) and has lower management and custody fees compared to similar products, with a management fee of 0.25% and a custody fee of 0.05% [1] - Short-term pressure on gold prices is attributed to the decline in interest rate expectations, while medium to long-term outlook remains positive due to high real yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries and a trend towards stagflation in the U.S. economy [1] Group 2 - Northeast Securities noted that the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate, with Chairman Powell emphasizing a wait-and-see approach, leading to a reduction in short-term rate cut expectations [2] - The market's reaction to the Fed's stance has resulted in upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, which in turn affects gold prices, although the overall outlook for gold remains favorable [2] - The similarities in gold price movements between this year and last year suggest a need for a cooling-off period after rapid trading adjustments, with a focus on patience and confidence in the medium-term bullish direction for gold prices due to stagflation risks and gradual interest rate declines [2]

2025 年 5 月 12 日 总量研究 以斗争求合作，中方打到美方筹码底线 ——《大国博弈》系列第八十五篇 作者 分析师：高瑞东 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513108 gaoruidong@ebscn.com 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 相关研报 中美会晤前哨观察：特朗普的交易底线—— 《大国博弈》系列第八十四篇（2025-05- 10） 中美关税第二轮，双方在如何出牌？—— 《大国博弈》系列第七十九篇（2025-03- 05） 从减税视角出发，特朗普后续关税力度几 何？——《大国博弈》系列第七十八篇 （2025-02-20） 如何看待美中加墨本轮关税交锋？——《大 国博弈》系列第七十七篇（2025-02-06） 野心与现实：特朗普首日新政评述——《大 国博弈》系列第七十六篇（2025-01-21） 要点 核心观点： 在中国的示范下，越来越多的国家意识到，与美谈判"以斗争求合作则合作存，以 妥协求合作则合作亡"，"美 X 谈判"进展缓慢，对美国经济、市场和特朗普选盘 逐步造成实质 ...

美国4月CPI，是否印证鲍威尔对滞胀的担忧？点击参与CPI公布后金价竞猜，赢红包大奖 相关链接 CPI公布日，竞猜赢大奖 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market maintained a volatile pattern this week amidst the divergence of macro - data and policy games. Gold may face short - term pressure due to the re - pricing of the Fed's policy path, the delay of interest - rate cut expectations, and the easing of risk - aversion sentiment. However, the weakening of the US dollar's credit and the global de - dollarization trend provide structural support for the gold price. If it corrects to the next integer level, a long - term position can be established using the ratio spread structure. [5] - The global silver market is expected to have a shortage of 149 million ounces in 2025. The demand for silver will continue to grow with the development of new energy, photovoltaic, and electronics, while the supply is relatively limited, supporting the long - term upward trend of silver prices. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Currency Attribute - The US dollar index showed a "first decline then rise" volatile pattern this week. It initially fell below 100 due to tariff uncertainties, then regained momentum after the UK - US trade agreement and the Fed's hawkish signal. The continuous easing of trade tensions pushed the US dollar to stand firm above 100. However, the market is vigilant about the lagged impact of tariff policies. In the short term, attention should be paid to the verification of the "secondary inflation" expectation by relevant data, while in the long - term, debt expansion and the de - dollarization trend still exert downward pressure. [3] 3.2 Financial Attribute - The Fed's May FOMC meeting kept the federal funds rate in the target range of 4.25% - 4.5%. Chairman Powell sent a hawkish signal, emphasizing the risk of "simultaneous increase in inflation and unemployment rate" in the coming months due to rising tariff rates. The probability of an interest - rate cut in June dropped to 19.8%, and in July to 59.1%. [3] - The 1 - year US Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.05%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 4 basis points to 4.37%. The 10 - year real yield of US Treasuries rose from 2.06% to 2.08%, a total increase of 2 basis points. The yield spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasuries narrowed slightly to 0.49%. [21] 3.3 Commodity Attribute - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the gold SPDR holdings were 937.94 (unit not specified), slightly lower than the previous week. The silver SLV holdings were 14,020.96 tons, an increase of 11.19 tons from the previous week. [3] - China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for six consecutive months. In April 2025, China's official gold reserves were 73.77 million ounces, an increase of 70,000 ounces from the end of the previous month. It is expected that the funds from central banks around the world will maintain a net inflow. [43] 3.4 Macro - financial - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in April was 48.7%, higher than the expected 48.0% but lower than the previous value of 49.0%. Key sub - items showed "stagflation" characteristics. New export orders dropped by 6.5 percentage points to 43.1%, the lowest since May 2020, and the output sub - item dropped from 48.3 to 44, indicating that trade barriers are affecting entrepreneurs' confidence. [4] - The US ISM services PMI in April was 51.6, higher than the expected 50.3 and the previous value of 50.8, the highest since January 2023. The price sub - index reached 65.1, the highest since January 2023, reflecting a significant increase in raw material costs due to tariff hikes. [28] 3.5 Supply - demand Situation - The global silver market has been in shortage for five consecutive years, with an expected shortage of 149 million ounces in 2025. The supply is limited due to limited mine production and recycled silver accounting for only 20% of the supply, while the demand for silver will continue to grow with the development of new energy, photovoltaic, and electronics. [4] 3.6 Operation Suggestions - For gold, if it corrects to the lower integer pressure level, a long - term position can be established through the option ratio spread structure. [3] - For silver, considering its recent resistance, when the gold - silver ratio's value center continues to rise and the silver price is at the upper edge of the box range, a collar structure can be used to hedge against the callback risk. If it fully corrects, long positions can be gradually established in batches. [4]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates for the third consecutive time, with Chairman Powell emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding trade policies and their economic impact [1][2] - Powell mentioned that the potential for increased tariffs could lead to rising inflation, slower economic growth, and higher unemployment rates [1] - Economic indicators show mixed results, with signs of a mild recession emerging, as both manufacturing and services PMI indices are declining [10][11] Group 2: Technology Sector Performance - Despite macroeconomic volatility, major tech companies have shown structural strengths, with six out of the "Seven Giants" exceeding earnings expectations by an average of 16% [2] - Companies like Google and Microsoft reaffirmed their AI spending plans, while Amazon reported a three-digit year-on-year revenue growth in its AI business [2] Group 3: Trade Agreements and Market Reactions - The recent trade agreement between the UK and the US is seen as a positive development, marking the first new trade deal announced by the US [5][6] - The market is expected to respond favorably to such agreements, although significant challenges remain with other key countries [6] Group 4: Investment Trends and Asset Classes - Investors are advised to focus on various asset classes, including bond yields, dollar trends, and gold prices, as these will influence market dynamics [14] - The dollar index is stabilizing around the 100 mark, with expectations of continued fluctuations in the coming months [16]

从中长期来看，黄金在当前全球经济环境中的配置价值显得尤为重要。首先，关税争端的持续性预计将 加大市场的不确定性，且美国面临滞胀的风险未消。第二，全球央行出于对抗美元信用风险的考虑，持 续增持黄金，这一趋势将为未来黄金投资提供支撑。第三，市场对美联储在2025年前进行2-3次降息的 预期，意味着黄金作为不生息资产的吸引力将继续上升。 （转自：ETF炼金师） 在过去一周，黄金市场经历了一系列波动，伦敦现货黄金价格在周末收于3,326美元/盎司，较前一周上 涨2.6%，最高曾触及至3500美元。与此相比，国内AU9999黄金的价格为786元/克，周环比小幅上升 0.7%。与此同时，十年期美债利率上升4个基点，达到4.37%。 近期金价波动的主要因素是市场避险情绪的变化和资金的获利回吐。由于特朗普政府对电影及医药行业 的关税言论，市场在周初出现避险情绪回暖，黄金价格一度重返3400美元以上。然而，随着美国与英国 达成双边贸易协议，市场情绪开始缓和，投资者逐渐选择高位获利了结，导致金价在之后有所回落。人 民币计价的AU9999黄金在触及830元后也下跌至786元附近。 在5月的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上，美联 ...

操作策略1：建议反弹3236附近空，损8美金，目标看15-20点。 明日将公布通胀相关数据。市场预计4月CPI或初现价格上涨迹象，核心CPI环比升0.3%符合预期，本周晚些时候公布的核心PPI或走势相似，这表明 美联储关注的核心PCE指标仍面临一定压力，但尚不足以引发其高度警觉。若通胀超预期，受关税效应提前影响，美元走势或较复杂，当前鹰派重 定价空间有限，通胀过热甚至可能加剧滞胀担忧，短期内利空美元。 黄金市场近期波动显著，周五收盘价定格于3326点位，而周一早盘跳空低开至3275，形成明显缺口。随后金价在3292至3260区间内震荡整理，早盘 时段延续回落态势，午间虽有所反弹，但整体力度偏弱。至欧盘前，金价从3282强势下挫至3216，期间虽有反弹，却未能突破3236。当前金价在 3220附近胶着，晚间走势尤为关键。上方阻力位于3236-3240区间，下方支撑则在3206-3200一线。整体趋势偏弱，若3200关口失守，或将进一步测 试3180。操作上徐老师建议回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅。 操作策略2：建议回调3207附近多，损8美金，目标看15-20点。 本文由徐老师分析团队策划编辑，以上文章由徐老师本人 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The substantial progress of the China-US trade talks has boosted the overall global risk appetite, and the domestic risk appetite is also expected to be favorably affected in the short term. For assets, the stock index is expected to rebound with short - term cautious long positions; government bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level with cautious long positions. In the commodity sector, black metals are expected to be weakly oscillating, non - ferrous metals, energy - chemicals, and precious metals are expected to oscillate, and all are under cautious observation [3]. - The demand for steel is expected to be weak, and the prices of steel futures and spot have widened their decline. The prices of ferrous alloys are expected to oscillate within a range. The prices of energy - chemical products have rebounded slightly due to the China - US trade talks, but there are still long - term downward pressures. Non - ferrous metals are expected to oscillate, and the short - term trends are affected by the China - US talks and other factors [6][9][13]. Summary by Directory Macroeconomic and Financial - **Macro**: Overseas, the China - US trade talks ended positively, and details will be announced on Monday. Domestically, China's exports in April exceeded expectations, and the China - US high - level talks in Switzerland achieved substantial progress. The stock index is expected to rebound with short - term cautious long positions; government bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level with cautious long positions. In the commodity sector, black metals are weakly oscillating, non - ferrous metals, energy - chemicals, and precious metals are oscillating, all under cautious observation [3]. - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as semiconductor chips, artificial intelligence, and software development, the domestic stock market declined slightly. The China - US talks and loose monetary policies are expected to boost domestic risk appetite, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market oscillated last week. Economic data shows resilience, and the market is re - pricing the Fed's policy path. Gold may be under short - term pressure but has long - term support. Silver is under short - term observation [4][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets were weak last Friday. In May, it enters the off - season for steel demand. The apparent consumption of 5 major steel products decreased, and inventory started to rise. The supply also decreased slightly. Short - term bearish sentiment is recommended [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore continued to be weak. Steel demand has weakened, and although the iron - water output is still high, it is not supported by demand. The supply is expected to increase in the later period, and short - term bearish sentiment is recommended [6]. - **Ferroalloys (Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron)**: The price of silicon manganese rebounded slightly, and that of silicon iron declined. The demand for ferroalloys is weakening. The short - term price of ferroalloys is expected to oscillate within a range [7][8]. Energy - Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The China - US talks and domestic policy stimuli have improved the macro - sentiment, and oil prices have rebounded. However, the long - term downward path has been established, and the oil price will be under pressure in the later period but will continue to have high volatility in the short term [9]. - **Asphalt**: The absolute price of asphalt has rebounded due to the progress of the trade agreement. The inventory removal has stagnated, the supply is low, and the demand has been slightly boosted. It will continue to fluctuate with crude oil in the short term [9]. - **PX**: PX has many self - maintenance periods and follows the polyester chain to rise. It will continue to be in short supply in the later period and will maintain a relatively strong oscillating pattern in the short term [9]. - **PTA**: The downstream demand for PTA exists in the short term, but there are limitations to its long - term upward space. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol is high, and the inventory removal is postponed. It will continue to oscillate [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The downstream processing profit of short - fiber is decreasing, and there is a risk of a decline in the high - operating rate. It will maintain a high - level range oscillation [10]. - **Methanol**: The inventory of methanol has increased, and the supply pressure is prominent. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and has downward pressure in the long term [11]. - **PP**: The supply pressure of PP has been relieved, but the demand is weak, and the fundamentals are under pressure [11]. - **LLDPE**: The downstream of LLDPE is basically stable, and the supply has increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate weakly before the holiday and requires cautious observation [13]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The China - US talks may boost the market sentiment in the short term. The copper price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and opportunities for short positions can be sought in the medium term [13]. - **Aluminum**: The trade agreement between the US and the UK has a short - term positive impact on the market sentiment. The aluminum price rebound is approaching the end. Short - term long positions should be gradually liquidated, and short - position opportunities can be sought after the situation becomes clear [13]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is expected to increase, and the demand is about to enter the off - season. The tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term, affected by the China - US talks, the resumption of production in Wa State, and the weakening demand [14].