21世纪经济报道记者 叶麦穗 连续突破多个重要关口 衡量人民币对一篮子货币的三大人民币汇率指数则续刷2025年4月以来新高。 中国外汇交易中心公布数据显示，截至11月21日， 当周三大人民币汇率指数全线上涨，CFETS人民币汇率指数报98.22，按周涨0.39，创2025年4月以来新高；BIS货币篮子人民币 汇率指数报104.66，按周涨0.5，创2025年4月以来新高；SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数报92.6，按周涨0.34，创2025年3月以来新 高。 人民币缘何走出全面强势行情？对此，业内分析认为，这一方面得益于人民币相对非美货币在基本面和资金流动方面的强势表 现，另一方面也缘于中间价持续释放升值信号等。 波动加大的全球汇市里，人民币与美元"双强"格局成为一道特别的风景线。 近日，美元指数一直徘徊在100点左右，同一时间，人民币对美元展现出较强韧性，刷新逾1年来高位，更对一篮子货币维持强 势，接连创下7个月新高。 11月26日，在前一天在岸、离岸同步升破7.09的背景下，人民币继续走强，截至当日下午18时（下同），在岸、离岸价盘中双双 击穿7.08，其中在岸人民币最高达到7.0786，离岸达到7.0755 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.34 trillion in October, marking an increase of $4.685 billion from the previous value, remaining above $3.3 trillion for three consecutive months and above $3.2 trillion for 24 months, the highest level since December 2015 [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves Overview - Foreign exchange reserves are crucial for international payments and are held by central banks and government institutions, enhancing the ability to repay short-term foreign debts and maintain economic security [1] - The sources of China's foreign exchange reserves include trade surplus, foreign direct investment (FDI), and capital flows from international investors purchasing Chinese financial assets [2] Group 2: Trade Surplus and FDI - China's trade surplus is expected to continue expanding, driven by the relative strength of global and domestic economies, with projections indicating a record high by 2026 [3] - FDI is influenced by the profitability of industrial enterprises in China, with historical trends showing that FDI growth aligns with the performance of industrial profits [3] Group 3: Capital Flows and PPI - The growth of industrial profits positively impacts the A-share market, attracting overseas financial capital, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown signs of recovery, which is expected to support industrial profit growth and further attract capital inflows [3] Group 4: Valuation and Relative Value Changes - As of Q2 2025, the composition of global foreign exchange reserves shows that the U.S. dollar accounts for 56.33%, with China's reserves primarily in U.S. dollar assets, particularly U.S. Treasury bonds [4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is anticipated to decline, which would increase the value of U.S. bonds and positively impact China's foreign exchange reserves [5] Group 5: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index is expected to decline in 2026, which would raise the dollar value of non-dollar assets and positively influence China's trade surplus and capital inflows [6][7] - The relationship between the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields indicates that a decline in yields will likely lead to a decrease in the dollar index, further supporting China's foreign exchange reserves [7] Group 6: Future Projections and Implications - By 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves are projected to steadily increase from the current $3.3 trillion, supported by both absolute scale and relative value changes [8] - This increase will enhance China's ability to repay short-term foreign debts and stabilize the renminbi exchange rate, contributing to financial stability in the A-share market [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and a persistent oversupply situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, as the current price has reached a 5 - year low, the downward space is relatively limited [1][3]. - For the stainless - steel market, with low demand, high inventory, and a continuously decreasing cost center, stainless - steel prices are also expected to stay in a low - level oscillation. Considering the current price is at a historical low, further decline is expected to be limited [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 25, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 115,880 yuan/ton and closed at 116,160 yuan/ton, a 0.75% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 116,438 (-32,096) lots, and the open interest was 141,215 (-6,339) lots. The contract continued to rebound and closed slightly higher, but the trading volume decreased, indicating market hesitation. Macro factors such as positive signals from China - US leadership communication and dovish signals from Fed officials supported nickel prices [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see mode with stable prices. In the Philippines, northern mines' shipments are unstable, and the latest tender prices have slightly declined but remain high. The downstream nickel - iron transaction price has dropped to 880 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch), leading to a lack of market confidence. Iron plants' profits are affected, and they are cautious in purchasing nickel ore. Some iron plants are considering production cuts. In Indonesia, the November (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price has dropped by 0.12 - 0.2 US dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with a premium range of +25 - 26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 121,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,070 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Due to previous price drops and production cuts by some enterprises, spot supply has tightened, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands have mostly increased. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 4,450 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained at 500 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 33,785 (-294) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 253,482 (0) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Mainly conduct range - bound operations. - **Other**: No operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 25, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2601 opened at 12,920 yuan/ton and closed at 12,405 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 150,286 (+2,692) lots, and the open interest was 147,237 (-4,171) lots. The contract rose slightly, basically following the trend of Shanghai nickel. The trading volume increased slightly, and market activity improved. Macro factors such as the rising expectation of Fed rate cuts and China's issuance of 1 trillion yuan in national bonds and early release of local bond quotas boosted market confidence and stainless - steel prices [3]. - **Spot**: Driven by the futures market, the spot market has recovered, with some purchasing demand released and increased market transactions. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 12,625 (-50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 12,650 (-50) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 340 - 490 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 887.0 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Other**: No operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

11月26日（周三）截至当前交易时段，美元指数报99.740，较前一交易日下跌0.07%，日内呈现窄幅震 荡态势，今开99.811，最高触及99.874，最低下探99.712。这一波动背后，是美国经济数据韧性与美联 储政策预期的博弈，技术面则呈现多空信号交织的特征，需从双重维度梳理趋势逻辑。 美元指数核心驱动力为美联储政策，美国经济数据与非美货币表现构成支撑。当前美国经济"软着陆"迹 象明显：三季度GDP增2.8%，个人消费支出增2.9%，服务业PMI连续12个月扩张，短期限制美元跌幅。 非美货币疲弱为美元提供支撑：日元受日银宽松拖累，英镑因英债与失业问题承压。但欧元区存变数， 10月HICP升2.1%，经济增速预期上修至1.4%，欧元回调空间收窄，将削弱美元动能。 支撑阻力明确：下方99.20为短均线共振支撑，破位或下探98.70；上方100.00-100.30为关键阻力 （100.30为9月来高点），突破可上看101.00。当前指数在99.70-99.90窄幅波动。 美元指数技术分析 技术面呈"短多中空"特征：5日、10日、50日均线多头排列支撑短期行情；年线下行，200天均线 （99.812）成多空关键 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strengthening of the US dollar index is primarily supported by external factors, including the weakening of non-US currencies and a temporary alleviation of employment concerns [6]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Dollar Strength - The collective weakening of non-US currencies has provided passive support for the dollar index, with the Japanese yen and British pound both under pressure due to respective economic conditions and policy decisions [1]. - Expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled, reinforcing the resilience of the dollar. Despite a rate cut in October, hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve have led to a significant reduction in the market's expectations for further cuts in December [2]. - The pause in the release of key economic data due to the government shutdown has alleviated short-term employment concerns, with recent ADP employment data showing marginal improvement, thus supporting the dollar index [3]. Group 2: Additional Supporting Factors - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have temporarily eased, following the Supreme Court's decision to hear a case related to potential dismissals within the Fed, which has calmed market fears [5]. - Increased risk aversion has driven demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset, particularly following a pullback in US tech stocks and tightening liquidity conditions [5]. Group 3: Limitations on Future Dollar Strength - The risks in the employment market have not fundamentally eased, with key employment data yet to be released, and the potential for downward revisions in previously reported job numbers [7]. - There remains room for a return to rate cut expectations, particularly if a dovish candidate is appointed as the next Fed chair, which could negatively impact the dollar index [7]. - The support from non-US currencies is not robust, as the Japanese yen's depreciation may prompt government intervention, which could weaken its support for the dollar index [7]. - Technical resistance is evident near the 100-point mark for the dollar index, requiring additional positive factors for further upward movement [7]. Group 4: Short-term Outlook - In the short term, the dollar index is expected to maintain a high-level oscillation, with upcoming employment data and the appointment of a new Fed chair candidate serving as critical tests for its resilience [8].

Core Insights - The offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates against the USD have both surpassed the 7.09 mark, reaching a new high in over a year, with the central parity rate set at 7.0826 RMB per USD, an increase of 21 basis points from the previous trading day [1] - The RMB's mid-price has appreciated approximately 1000 basis points year-to-date, supported by a weaker USD and strong domestic equity market performance attracting foreign investment [1] - Experts predict that the RMB will maintain a strong performance against the USD in the short term and may experience moderate appreciation through 2026 [1] Group 1 - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to two main factors: the continuous adjustment of the RMB's mid-price towards a stronger direction and the robust performance of the domestic economy since the beginning of the year, alongside a significant decline in the USD [2] - The adjustment in the RMB exchange rate is aimed at stabilizing the external environment for China's foreign trade enterprises, with expectations of continued strong performance in the short term [2] - The anticipated future actions of the Federal Reserve, including potential interest rate cuts, and the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies on the US economy are expected to limit the upward potential of the USD index [2] Group 2 - The impact of external fluctuations on China's exports is becoming evident in the fourth quarter, with significant policy measures in place to stabilize the economy, including the issuance of 500 billion RMB in new policy financial instruments and local government debt limits [3] - The internal economic fundamentals are expected to provide substantial support for the RMB exchange rate, with a focus on maintaining a stable RMB against the USD [3] - The RMB exchange rate is projected to remain stable, with limited potential for rapid appreciation above the 7.0 mark before the end of the year [3]

Core Points - The US dollar index decreased by 0.48% on November 25, closing at 99.664 [1] - The euro strengthened against the dollar, with the exchange rate rising to 1.1584 from 1.1528 [1] - The British pound also appreciated, increasing to 1.3213 from 1.3109 [1] - The US dollar weakened against the Japanese yen, falling to 155.83 from 156.74 [1] - The dollar declined against the Swiss franc, with the rate dropping to 0.8064 from 0.8077 [1] - The Canadian dollar saw a slight increase, with the exchange rate moving to 1.4092 from 1.4108 [1] - The Swedish krona appreciated against the dollar, rising to 9.5181 from 9.5449 [1]

11月25日，人民币汇率刷新逾1年来高位，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率双双收复7.09关口。衡量人民 币对一篮子货币的三大人民币汇率指数则续刷2025年4月以来新高。人民币缘何走出全面强势行情？对 此，业内分析认为，这一方面得益于人民币相对非美货币在基本面和资金流动方面的强势表现，另一方 面也缘于中间价持续释放升值信号等。展望后市，业内认为，后续美元指数上行空间有限，人民币走势 则将稳中偏强，四季度的季节性结汇需求将为人民币走势提供重要支撑。（上证报） ...

11月25日，人民币汇率刷新逾1年来高位，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率双双收复7.09关口。 在对非美货币方面，据中国外汇交易中心数据显示，衡量人民币对一篮子货币的三大人民币汇率指数则续刷2025年4月以来新高。上周，三大人民币指数 全线上扬。其中，CFETS人民币汇率指数报98.22；BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数报104.66；SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数报92.60。 据上海证券报，兴业研究外汇商品部总经理助理、高级研究员张峻滔对记者表示，近期人民币中间价保持坚挺，在岸人民币汇率围绕中间价窄幅震荡，但 由于比如欧元、日元等其他非美货币对美元均现明显贬值，人民币相对韧性凸显，因而人民币汇率指数创下新高。 在岸市场上，人民币兑美元今日最高攀升至7.0851，创下去年10月中旬以来的新高，距年内最低点7.3518已升值超2667个基点。 离岸市场反应更为积极。离岸人民币对美元汇率全天保持强势震荡，顺利突破7.09关口，盘中最高触及7.08305，同样刷新逾一年峰值，距年内最低点 7.42879已升值超3457个基点。 事实上，今年我国出口表现超预期，叠加7月以来国内资本市场走强，这在带动结汇需求增加的同时，也提振 ...

"你有没有注意到最近人民币的波动？有些人觉得它会继续贬值，但也有人认为，人民币保持相对稳定，反而是一个亮点。" 这是不少人最近谈论的一个话 题，尤其是在全球经济面临许多不确定性的时候。汇率问题总是能牵动不少人的神经，不管是普通消费者，还是在国际市场上有业务往来的公司，都在密切 关注着这些数字的变化。 11月25日，人民币对美元的中间价报在7.0847元左右，虽然美元的反弹趋势明显，但人民币并没有像往年一样大幅贬值，这一方面说明了国内经济的韧性， 另一方面也证明了中国政府在外汇市场上的调控能力。特别是在出口和资本流动方面，人民币的表现让很多人看到了它的抗压能力。 其实，人民币的汇率走势并不是单纯受到美国经济政策的影响，它的稳定也和中国一系列宏观经济策略有关。比如，外汇储备的管理、资本流动的管控，都 在一定程度上限制了人民币的剧烈波动，让它在全球货币市场中保持了一定的稳定性。尤其是在美元指数反弹的情况下，人民币并没有跟随贬值，反倒能够 稳住阵脚，这对于那些依赖出口的企业来说，无疑是一大利好消息。 美元的强势回升，是最近汇率市场中的一个大热点。随着美国加息预期的升温，美元指数一路走高，成为市场关注的焦点。然而，尽管 ...