Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report will play a crucial role in determining whether the recent downward trend of the U.S. dollar will continue [1] Group 1: Employment Data Impact - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell believes that persistent inflation and a solid labor market indicate that interest rates should remain at restrictive levels [1] - Any unexpected downturn in the employment report could weaken Powell's position and increase market expectations for a rate cut in the July meeting [1] - Unless the employment data is weaker than expected, the dollar may continue to consolidate before the U.S. holiday on July 4 [1]

2026年是通胀低于2%的重要一年。 只要政策合适，通胀低于目标水平只是暂时的。 绝不能夸大2026年通胀低于预期一事。 欧洲央行会议纪要：能源、欧元是CPI的主要推动力。 欧元走强可能加剧出口的不利因素。 ...

欧洲央行会议纪要：如果贸易紧张局势进一步升级，工作人员预计经济增长和通胀将低于其基准预测。 ...

Group 1 - The Eurozone services sector showed a recovery in June after a brief contraction in May, with the HCOB Eurozone Services PMI rising from 49.7 in May to 50.5 in June, indicating a return to growth albeit at a weak pace [1] - The composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services, increased from 50.2 to 50.6, marking a three-month high, but still reflects only moderate growth [1] - New orders in the Eurozone have declined for the 13th consecutive month, although the rate of contraction has slowed to a slight level of 49.7 [1] Group 2 - The services sector confidence index reached its highest level in 2025, recovering from a 29-month low in April, yet remains below the long-term trend [2] - Input cost inflation for the services sector dropped to a seven-month low, but sales prices increased at the fastest rate in three months, complicating the inflation outlook despite recent interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank [2] - More than half of economists surveyed expect the European Central Bank to cut rates again in September after a year-long easing cycle [2]

智通财经7月3日电，俄罗斯央行行长纳比乌琳娜称，通胀的放缓速度快于预期，尚未做出任何决定，包 括降息。 ...

俄罗斯央行行长纳比乌琳娜：通胀的放缓速度快于预期。 ...

资金流向也印证了情绪的微妙转折：ETF持仓四日连增，期金多头仓位同步加码，与去年四季度"削仓 观望"形成鲜明对照。与此同时，白银、铂金、钯金的同步拉升说明贵金属内部轮动回暖，暗示避险需 求正从单点向群体扩散。接下来，若非农失速与核心CPI降温同步出现，实质利率下探空间将被迅速放 大，黄金若上摸3400美元甚至冲击3500美元并非奢望。 短线多头不可忽视两道关口。其一，若非农意外强劲，美元或迅速回补空缺，技术性抛盘将拖累金价再 度考验3300美元支撑；其二，财政扩张引致的长端利率弹性仍在，若债券供给冲击超过需求修复速度， 名义收益率再抬头也会对金价形成压制。对中线配置而言，分批锁定3300美元下方筹码，并关注3400美 元附近的成交强度，可在波动中保持攻守平衡。 DLSMARKETS认为软化的就业数据给黄金打开了一条向上的斜坡，真正决定能否跨过3600美元门槛 的，仍是接下来几周就业与通胀的合拍节奏，以及美联储对"劳动力冷却"和"价格温和"权重的微调。在 宏观变量尚未尘埃落定前，黄金多头要想一鼓作气，还需更多基本面火力的推动。 ADP报告近两年首次录得民间岗位净减少，令"降息闸门或提前打开"的预期在交易盘中迅速 ...

去年美国对冲基金业绩的冠军，发现资本管理公司（Discovery Capital Management）认为美联储今年绝不可能降息，同时美股面临短期回调的风险。 7月1日，发现资本管理公司的创始人兼投资组合经理Robert Citrone在媒体节目上发出警告 ，由于市场对美联储降息的预期与经济现实严重脱节，加上贸易摩 擦再起，标普500指数短期内或将面临回调。然而，他同时预测，受国内投资和消费提振，美国经济将在明年迎来"繁荣"，而真正的投资机遇可能正在地球的 另一端——拉丁美洲涌现 。 Citrone明确表示，市场普遍预期的年内两次降息"非常危险"，他认为美联储今年"绝无可能"降息。他指出，核心通胀数据依然顽固，预计将从目前的2.8%攀升 至年底的3.5%，这将使任何降息的理由都站不住脚。 这一判断与市场主流观点形成鲜明对比，也构成了他看空美股短期前景的核心逻辑。Citrone认为， 这种预期的错位，叠加与欧洲、日本等经济体之间"艰 难"的贸易谈判，将给市场带来动荡。他将其比作一个"迷你的四月"，暗示市场将重现此前的波动 。 尽管短期看法谨慎，Citrone却对美国经济的长期前景极为乐观。他认为当前的经济放缓 ...

智通财经7月3日电，欧洲央行官员DEMARCO表示，需要监控欧元升值速度，欧元升值有助于抑制通 胀，欧元不会取代美元的储备货币地位。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of economic data and trade negotiations on market dynamics, particularly the rising demand for gold as a safe-haven asset due to economic uncertainties and high tariff threats [1][3][4] - The ADP employment data for June showed a significant decline of 33,000 jobs, marking the largest monthly drop since March 2023, which was far below the expected increase of 98,000 jobs [1] - The Challenger job cuts report indicated that layoffs rose to 47,999 in June, the highest level since December 2024, reinforcing concerns about economic slowdown and aggressive cost-cutting measures by employers [1] Group 2 - The upcoming U.S. tariff negotiations are creating a highly fragmented global trade landscape, with various countries seeking exemptions or reductions in tariffs while facing significant uncertainties [2][3] - The U.S. is employing a "divide and conquer" strategy in negotiations, with the EU seeking exemptions for key industries and Canada having to withdraw a planned digital services tax to restart talks [2] - The potential for a differentiated tariff system and trade conflicts may disrupt global supply chains and increase production costs, further enhancing gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [3][4] Group 3 - The instability in trade policies is providing solid support for precious metal prices, with gold and silver expected to find strong support around $3,300 and $36 respectively [4] - The market is closely watching the upcoming non-farm payroll data, which could trigger significant movements in gold and silver prices depending on the employment trends [4] - Analysts suggest a cautious approach before the non-farm data release, with potential for increased positions if key resistance levels are broken [4]