澳大利亚央行决定将利率上调25个基点至3.85%，此举伴随着偏紧缩的评论，这些评论指向在第一季度 CPI数据公布后，该行将在5月份再次加息。澳大利亚央行指出，强劲的民间需求和产能限制问题可能 会使通胀在"一段时间内"保持高位。这项最新决定逆转了8月份宣布的一次降息，并将加剧有关州和联 邦政府支出过度的辩论，而眼下澳大利亚经济正因生产率增长疲软而受到制约。 责任编辑：王永生 责任编辑：王永生 澳大利亚央行决定将利率上调25个基点至3.85%，此举伴随着偏紧缩的评论，这些评论指向在第一季度 CPI数据公布后，该行将在5月份再次加息。澳大利亚央行指出，强劲的民间需求和产能限制问题可能 会使通胀在"一段时间内"保持高位。这项最新决定逆转了8月份宣布的一次降息，并将加剧有关州和联 邦政府支出过度的辩论，而眼下澳大利亚经济正因生产率增长疲软而受到制约。 ...

Group 1 - The ISM Manufacturing PMI index rose significantly from 47.9 to 52.6, exceeding expectations of 48.5, marking the first growth in U.S. factory activity in a year [2] - New orders saw a substantial rebound, with the forward-looking new orders sub-index jumping to 57.1, the highest level since February 2022 [2] - Despite the positive PMI reading, manufacturing has not fully recovered from the challenges posed by tariffs, which have increased raw material prices and strained supply chains [2] Group 2 - The COMEX silver market is currently trading above $80.82, with a recent high of $85.72 and a low of $79.01, indicating a short-term bearish trend [1] - The bullish momentum for March silver futures is weakening, with the next resistance level at $100.00 and support at $70.00 [3] - The first resistance level is noted at the overnight high of $88.00, followed by $90.00, while support levels are at $75.00 and the overnight low of $71.20 [3]

肯纳格投资 银行的经济学家在报告中指出，受去年低基数效应以及斋月期间预期需求增强的影响，印 尼通胀率在短期内可能维持在高位。他们指出，价格压力预计将从4月起有所缓解。肯纳格维持其2026 年消费者价格指数预测在2.5%不变，而2025年的预测值为1.9%。分析师表示，由于全球不确定性和地 缘政治紧张局势升级导致通胀风险上升且印尼盾走软，今年进一步采取货币宽松措施的空间已有所收 窄。此外，包括对央行独立性、财政政策信誉的质疑，以及摩根士丹利资本国际对数据透明度和交易违 规行为的警告等国内担忧，也加剧了市场压力。 ...

Group 1 - The Japanese Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, indicated that the recent comments by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida did not overly emphasize the benefits of a weak yen, suggesting an attempt to maintain market speculation about government intervention risks [1] - Kishida stated that a weak yen could provide significant opportunities for export-oriented industries, which has reduced speculation about government intervention in the yen's exchange rate [1] - The yen fell back to the 155 level on Monday and hovered around 155.50 on Tuesday morning, indicating ongoing volatility in the currency market [1] Group 2 - Kishida mentioned that a weak yen is beneficial for Japan's foreign exchange fund special accounts, which the government uses for various purposes, including currency intervention [1] - Suzuki emphasized that Japan will continue to coordinate closely with the United States, hinting at potential joint actions in the market [1] - As the House of Representatives election approaches on February 8, traders are preparing for increased market volatility, betting on a likely overwhelming victory for Kishida's Liberal Democratic Party, which could pave the way for more aggressive fiscal policies [1]

沃什接棒联储会改变周期逻辑吗？20260202 摘要 Kevin Warsh 被提名为美联储主席后，市场普遍认为他是"缩表派"， 可能推动美联储缩减资产负债表，给各类资产带来不确定性，投资者需 关注其具体实施细节。 Warsh 曾批评美联储的数据依赖路径，并多次强调通胀风险，市场认为 他可能更偏鹰派，更加关注通胀问题，投资者需警惕其政策对通胀的潜 在影响。 Warsh 与特朗普总统关系密切，可能减少美联储与白宫之间的摩擦，但 也可能导致政策冲突，如 Warsh 倾向于缩表与特朗普希望低利率刺激经 济的目标相悖。 当前金融系统面临流动性风险和波动性增加的挑战，美联储新主席人选 的不确定性加剧了市场波动，投资者应重新评估风险并调整投资策略。 全球主要经济体面临高通胀、货币贬值和财政不可持续性的债务管理挑 战，各国央行倾向于容忍较高通胀以降低实际债务负担，可能导致金融 抑制。 Q&A Kevin Warsh 被提名为下一届美联储主席后，市场对其政策方向有哪些解读？ 市场对 Kevin Warsh 的政策方向有多方面的解读。首先，Warsh 曾公开表示 对 2008 年后的大规模量化宽松（QE）非常不满，并因此辞去上 ...

Key Insights - The report indicates that the recent market adjustments in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are primarily technical and emotional, with a positive medium-term outlook for Chinese assets as liquidity and fundamentals remain favorable [2][3] - The report highlights the resilience of the funding environment, despite a significant net outflow of 320 billion yuan from ETFs, suggesting that there is still strong underlying demand for certain asset classes [3] - The manufacturing PMI for January fell to 49.3%, indicating contraction, while the non-manufacturing index also declined to 49.4%, suggesting potential challenges in economic activity [5][6] - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair is expected to influence market sentiment, particularly regarding inflation expectations and interest rates, which may impact risk assets [5][10] - The report discusses the recent performance of high-dividend sectors, noting that they have outperformed the market as risk appetite declines, with recommendations to focus on stable high-dividend stocks [11][12] - The report emphasizes the ongoing interest in IPOs in the Hong Kong market, with a strong performance in recent listings, suggesting continued investor appetite for new equity offerings [12][30] - The introduction of a unified capacity pricing mechanism for independent energy storage is expected to enhance the profitability and stability of the energy sector, particularly for leading companies in the storage and power generation space [27][28] - The report notes the recovery in the second-hand housing market, with increased transaction volumes and stable prices, particularly in first-tier cities, indicating a potential rebound in the real estate sector [24][29] - The report highlights the commercial acceleration of microbial protein production, driven by regulatory approvals and increasing demand for alternative protein sources, suggesting a growing investment opportunity in this sector [25]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2026-02-03 股市避险等待，债市⻓端震荡 研究员: 股指期货：商品流动性踩踏向股市传导，短期避险等待。 股指期权：期权对冲情绪凸显，反弹博弈暂不显著。 国债期货：债市⻓端⾛势偏强。 股指期货⽅⾯，商品流动性踩踏向股市传导，短期避险等待。周一市 场集中计价流动性踩踏，主要受外盘商品传导。上周五夜盘，国际金价、 银价继续大幅回撤，交易多头拥挤，和担忧沃什上任后缩表+降息，美联 储减少长债购买，令美国利率曲线陡峭化，抬升长端利率水平，美元或重 新走强，逆转了之前的交易逻辑。周一国内开盘，商品继续计价外盘跌 幅，金、银、碳酸锂、锡、镍、铜等品种罕见跌停，连锁反应印证流动性 危机，期货期权杠杆强平又加速了这一负反馈。虽然国内中期通胀主线仍 成立，但短期流动性踩踏下，需回避波动风险，市场风格有向价值、红利 切换的迹象，建议IC多单切换至IH多单或降仓进行防御。同时考虑到"春 躁"仍有时间，后续关注板块补涨机会，高景气内部或从周期切向科技， 后市考虑仓位切换至IM多单，观察有色金属降波和价格企稳的积极信号。 股指期权⽅⾯，期权对冲情绪 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, leading to a rebound in risk appetite and a strengthening of the US dollar index. The short - term economic downward pressure has eased, and the market risk preference has recovered. The short - term dollar is expected to continue to rise [15]. - Gold prices continued to decline on Monday, and silver hit the daily limit down. The market is still digesting the negative impact of Wash being nominated as the Fed Chairman. The short - term sharp decline of precious metals may end, but it is difficult to rise rapidly, and it is expected to enter a volatile stage [13]. - A - shares had a sharp adjustment, and the Shanghai Composite Index barely held above 4000 points. The weakening of the "inflation up, bulk prices up, economic recovery" logic led to a sharp decline in related sectors and dragged down the stock market. In the short term, the stock index lacks the momentum to rise and still needs to oscillate to digest the capital pressure [23]. - For commodities, different varieties have different trends. For example, palm oil exports increased, and the inventory decreased; iron ore supply pressure is high, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly; coal prices are expected to be strong in February; and the prices of some energy - chemical products such as crude oil and asphalt are affected by geopolitical and market factors [37][34][32]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 1 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.6, the highest since August 2022, with an expected 48.5 and a previous value of 47.9. Fed Bostic expects no rate cuts in 2026. Gold prices continued to decline on Monday, and silver hit the daily limit down. The short - term sharp decline of precious metals may end, but it is difficult to rise rapidly, and it is expected to enter a volatile stage. It is recommended to wait for the market volatility to decline, and the adjustment pressure of silver is greater than that of gold, and the gold - silver ratio will rise [11][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump called on Republicans to take control of the election process from the states. The US 1 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was the highest since February 2022, which led to a rebound in risk appetite and a strengthening of the US dollar index. The short - term dollar is expected to continue to rise [14][15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US 1 - month ISM manufacturing PMI far exceeded expectations. Oracle launched a $25 billion bond issuance. The US government shutdown postponed the release of the January employment report. It is expected that the US stock market will maintain high - level volatility [17][18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market had a sharp adjustment, and the Shanghai Composite Index barely held above 4000 points. The weakening of the "inflation up, bulk prices up, economic recovery" logic led to a sharp decline in related sectors and dragged down the stock market. In the short term, the stock index lacks the momentum to rise and still needs to oscillate to digest the capital pressure [23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank carried out 750 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan on the day. The performance of treasury bond futures was slightly weak. It is recommended to moderately pay attention to the opportunity of shorting T [25]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - 276 steel enterprises completed the publicity of ultra - low emission transformation. The 2 - month auto market will enter a stage of adjustment. Steel prices followed the decline of peripheral metals. The inventory of building materials has increased significantly, and the demand has weakened seasonally. It is recommended to treat steel prices with an oscillatory mindset, and the short - term decline space is expected to be limited [27][30]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On February 2, the price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable. With the approach of the festival, the supply has shrunk, and some terminal enterprises still have pre - holiday replenishment needs, which support the coal price to a certain extent. It is expected that the coal price will be strong in February, and attention should be paid to the temperature and new energy power generation in February [32]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The construction of the port and railway in Baffin Island was approved to support the expansion plan of Mary River Mine. The supply of iron ore is at a high level, and the demand is temporarily static. It is expected that the iron ore price will oscillate weakly [34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - As of January 30, 2026, the domestic palm oil inventory was 701,400 tons, a decrease of 40,900 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 5.51%. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 31 increased by 17.93% month - on - month. After the macro - sentiment stabilizes, long positions can be continued to be arranged [36][37]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The Brazilian soybean harvest progress is slightly faster than that of the same period last year. The domestic soybean meal inventory of oil mills has increased. It is expected that the domestic and foreign futures prices will maintain a weak - oscillatory trend [38][40]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The copper concentrate processing fee is at a low level, and the EU is considering new sanctions on Russian copper. The copper price has dropped significantly due to the decline of precious metals. In the short term, the volatility is still relatively large. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - term and wait - and - see for arbitrage [41][42][44]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The domestic social inventory of lead ingots has increased. The lead market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the social inventory will increase seasonally. It is recommended to wait - and - see in the short - term and pay attention to the medium - term long - position opportunity [45]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price has dropped significantly. The domestic inventory has increased seasonally. It is recommended to wait - and - see temporarily and manage positions well [48][49]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply of tin is expected to ease, but the supply concentration is high. The short - term tin price is expected to be weak and oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the supply recovery expectation and the improvement of consumption [51][52]. 3.2.10 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Iran said it was willing to close or suspend its nuclear program. Trump reached a trade agreement with India. The oil price has dropped significantly. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the changes in the Iranian situation [53][55]. 3.2.11 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries has decreased, and the social inventory has increased. The short - term asphalt price is under pressure, and the subsequent trend depends on whether there are sudden changes in the geopolitical situation [57]. 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - Iran hopes to avoid war with the US through diplomatic efforts. It is recommended to short the methanol 05 contract, with a stop - profit point of 2183 yuan/ton, and aggressive investors can lower the stop - profit to the previous box area of 2120 - 2150 yuan/ton [58][60]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports has changed. The short - term styrene market has large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait - and - see and reduce the risk exposure before the Spring Festival [61][63]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable. The high - supply, weak - demand, and high - inventory situation has not changed. The short - term rebound height of caustic soda is expected to be limited, and the disk may be under pressure again [64][65]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder has risen, but the transaction is not good. The PVC market is under supply pressure, and the downstream demand is expected to weaken. The current rise is mainly due to policy expectations, and the upward rebound height should not be overly optimistic, but it may still be relatively strong in the short - term under the catalysis of sentiment [66][67].

【行情资讯】 沪金涨 3.61 %，报 1045.00 元/克，沪银跌 17.04 %，报 20600.00 元/千克；COMEX 金 4701.10 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 79.62 美元/盎司；美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.26%，美元指数报 97.12； 周一黄金白银遭到剧烈抛售，均砸至跌停板，沪银沪金夜盘均收跌，市场宏观预期快速反转， 前期累积多头集中踩踏离场，价差走阔。同时，上期所与上金所于当日同步上调白银交易保证 金比例、扩大涨跌停板幅度的监管措施使得杠杆资金被迫被动减仓离场，进一加剧盘面与价差 的极端波动。 2026 年 1 月美国 ISM 制造业 PMI 录得 52.6，大幅超出预期（48.5）及前值（47.9），为 2022 年 8 月以来最高，且自 2025 年 2 月后首次突破荣枯线，标志着制造业结束连续 10 个月收缩、 回归扩张。标普全球数据同步显示当月工厂产出创 2022 年 5 月以来最大涨幅，印证行业阶段 性回暖。 分项来看，需求端反弹。新订单指数从 47.7 跳升至 57.1（2022 年 2 月以来最高），带动生产 指数从 50.7 升至 55.9，产出表现强劲 ...

Market Overview - The report highlights significant fluctuations in global assets following the hawkish nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman by Trump, leading to a strong market reaction [2][8] - The short-term market may be overpricing the Fed's hawkish shift, with expectations of interest rate cuts likely preceding any balance sheet reduction [8] Economic Policy Insights - The report suggests that the Fed's ability to successfully reduce its balance sheet will depend on structural changes in fiscal policy and the real economy, rather than solely on the Fed's intentions [8] - It emphasizes that the core issue remains how inflation will be managed, potentially through fiscal discipline or production reforms [8] Stock Market Implications - The report anticipates increased volatility in the U.S. stock market, with a shift towards a more balanced investment style [8] - Key variables affecting the stock market include earnings validation and inflation trends, with a focus on the performance of the S&P 500 [8] Commodity Market Analysis - The report maintains that the bullish logic for gold, silver, and commodities remains intact, despite short-term volatility [8] - It notes that the speculative sell-off in precious metals was triggered by geopolitical signals and the Warsh nomination, impacting industrial metals as well [8] Sector Performance - The report identifies sectors such as electric grid equipment and liquor as outperformers in the recent market, while precious metals and industrial metals have seen significant declines [1][8] - It highlights the resilience of supply-demand dynamics in non-ferrous metals, despite recent liquidity shocks [8]