Investment Rating - Non-metallic building materials: Buy (Maintain) [5] - Construction and engineering: Overweight (Maintain) [5] Core Viewpoints - The State Council emphasizes the need to construct a new model for real estate development, aiming to stabilize and recover the real estate market [1] - Guangzhou's proposal to eliminate restrictive measures and reduce down payment and interest rates signals a positive market outlook [2] - The current market performance shows a decline in key indices, with the CITIC building materials index down 2.16% and the CITIC construction index down 1.27% [3] Market Data Summary - Cement: The national average price for PO42.5 cement is 365.70 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.45 CNY/ton; the national cement enterprise shipment rate is 45.7%, down 2.3 percentage points [3] - Glass: The current spot price for glass is 1203 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY/ton; glass inventory stands at 69.685 million heavy boxes, down 0.1% [3] - Fiberglass: The price for winding direct yarn is 4550 CNY/ton, unchanged; G75 electronic yarn is priced at 9100 CNY/ton, unchanged [3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies such as Honglu Steel Structure, China Jushi, Puyang Refractories, Hainan Huatie, Beixin Building Materials, China Chemical, China State Construction, Shanghai Port Bay, China National Materials, and Keda Manufacturing due to their respective growth prospects and market conditions [3]

证券研究报告 房地产 行业点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 16 日 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 有序搭建新模式，推进好房子，更大力度推动止跌回稳 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——国务院常务会议点评 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 事件：6 月 13 日，国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议，听取构建房地产发展 新模式和推进好房子建设有关情况汇报。 联系人 新模式：构建房地产发展新模式，稳中求进、先立后破、有序搭建。会议提到，构 建房地产发展新模式，对于促进房地产市场平稳、健康、高质量发展具有重要意义， 要着眼长远，坚持稳中求进、先立后破，有序搭建相关基础性制度。5 月 7 日，国 新办新闻发布会提到，"将加快完善与房地产发展新模式相适配的系列融资制度"。 其中，现房销售作为房地产发展新模式的一环，一方面，其试点工作已在推进过程 中，2020 年，商品住宅销售中，现房销售占比 10%，2024 年已提升至 ...

6月16日，国家统计局公布2025年5月份70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况和1—5月份全国房地产市场基本情况。数据显示，杭州、上海新房价格环 比分别上涨0.8%和0.7%；同比来看，上海上涨5.9%，杭州上涨1.6%。 杭州、上海新房价格领涨 国家统计局城市司首席统计师王中华在解读时表示，5月份，一线城市新房销售价格环比由上月持平转为下降0.2%。其中，上海上涨0.7%，北京、广州和 深圳分别下降0.4%、0.8%和0.4%。二线城市由上月环比持平转为下降0.2%，三线城市环比下降0.3%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。 同比来看，一线城市同比下降1.7%，但降幅比上月收窄0.4个百分点。其中，上海上涨5.9%，北京、广州和深圳分别下降4.3%、5.8%和2.6%。二、三线城 市新建商品住宅销售价格同比分别下降3.5%和4.9%，降幅分别收窄0.4个和0.5个百分点。 值得注意的是，5月份杭州新房价格环比上涨0.8%，为70城首位；同比上涨1.6%，仅次于上海。5月份新房环比上涨的城市有13个，除上述城市外，还包 括南宁、乌鲁木齐、沈阳、长沙、合肥等。 4个一线城市新房价格环比由上月持平转为下降0.2% ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The State Council meeting emphasized the need for a "greater effort to stabilize the real estate market" and to construct a new development model for the industry, which is crucial for promoting stable, healthy, and high-quality development [10][11] - The report indicates that the current market requires urgent solutions to the contradictions between supply and demand, particularly regarding inventory and expectations [11] - The policy direction suggests a comprehensive approach to stimulate demand and optimize supply, with expectations of continued easing measures [11][12] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the basic point of inflection for the industry may be approaching, with expectations for incremental policy support to continue [13] - Recommended investment focus includes non-state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt resolution and policy relief, leading real estate companies with product advantages, regional companies with differentiated fundamentals, and second-hand intermediaries benefiting from improved transaction activity [13] Transaction Overview New Housing Market - From June 7 to June 13, the transaction area for new homes was 2.43 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.68%, showing a month-on-month improvement of 5.65 percentage points [17] - The cumulative inventory reached 105.99 million square meters, with accelerated absorption in second-tier cities and slower absorption in first-tier and lower-tier cities [17] Second-Hand Housing Market - During the same period, the transaction area for second-hand homes was 1.89 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.97%, reflecting a decline of 2.21 percentage points compared to the previous month [26] - The transaction area for first-tier, second-tier, and lower-tier cities was 0.50 million, 1.30 million, and 0.09 million square meters, respectively [26] Land Market - From June 2 to June 8, the total land transaction area was 1.438 million square meters, with a rolling 12-week year-on-year decrease of 1.57% [35] - The total transaction amount reached 30.7 billion yuan, with a rolling 12-week year-on-year increase of 17.93% [35]

摘要： 行情回顾：上周螺纹 2510 合约下跌 0.44%。 基本面：据中钢协数据，6 月上旬，重点统计钢铁企业 共生产粗钢 2159 万吨，平均日产 215.9 万吨，日产环比增 长 3.2%。据我的钢铁网数据，247 家钢厂高炉开工率 83.41%， 环比减少 0.15%，同比增加 1.36%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 90.58%，环比减少 0.07%，同比增加 1.05%；钢厂盈利率 58.44%，环比减少 0.43%，同比增加 8.66%；日均铁水产量 241.61 万吨，环比减少 0.19 万吨。 后市展望：上周螺纹钢产量、厂库连续第三周减少，社 库连续第十四周减少，表需连续第二周减少。目前进入需求 淡季，钢材供需双双走弱，钢价中期预计以震荡为主。 交易策略：建议观望 螺纹周报 研究报告 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 黑色板块研究员：魏云 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 电话：17752110915 邮箱：497976013@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 6 月 16 日星期一 据此入市风险自负。 本报告中所有观 ...

资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/06/16 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国内期货主力合约涨跌互现。SC 原油涨超 6%，棕榈油涨超 3%，豆油涨超 2%， 菜油、焦煤、燃料油、液化石油气（LPG）涨超 1%；跌幅方面，烧碱、20 号胶、 乙二醇（EG）跌超 1%。 2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.48%报 3452.60 美元/盎司， 周涨 3.17%。COMEX 白银期货涨 0.21%报 36.37 美元/盎司，周涨 0.64%。 3. 国际油价大幅走高，美油主力合约涨 7.55%报 73.18 美元/桶，周涨 13.32%； 布油主力合约涨 7.5%报 74.56 美元/桶，周涨 12.17%。 4. 伦敦基本金属收盘多数下跌，LME 期铜跌 0.56%报 9647.5 美元/吨，周跌 0.47%；LME 期锌跌 0.61%报 2626.5 美元/吨，周跌 1.48%。 5. 国际农产品多数上涨，美大豆涨 2.52%，美玉米涨 1.43%，美豆油涨 6.30%， 美豆粕跌 1.09%，美小麦涨 3 ...

Group 1 - The State Council emphasized the need to promote the construction of "good houses" and integrate it into urban renewal mechanisms, providing policy support in planning, land, finance, and other areas to stabilize the real estate market [4][5] - The People's Bank of China announced a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a term of 182 days [4] - The CSRC released new regulations for algorithmic trading in the futures market to enhance monitoring and risk management [4] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission allocated 80 billion yuan for urban renewal projects, benefiting approximately 1.7 million people [5] - A series of adjustments to A-share indices took effect on June 16, including major indices like the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component [5][6] - Shenzhen is expected to pilot a secondary listing for red-chip stocks, providing a more efficient listing channel for tech companies [6] Group 3 - Global markets experienced significant volatility on June 13 due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with major indices in the US and Europe declining [7] - The Israeli airstrikes have resulted in significant casualties in Iran, further heightening regional tensions [7] Group 4 - GAC Group committed to ensuring the completion of dealer rebates within two months [10] - Kweichow Moutai adjusted its 2024 profit distribution plan, increasing the dividend to 27.673 yuan per share [10] - *ST Guandao faces potential delisting due to financial fraud, with trading suspended for one day [10] Group 5 - Huatai Securities reported that the conflict between Israel and Iran has led to increased oil price volatility [14] - CITIC Securities noted that new models of real estate development will more effectively address structural supply-demand mismatches [15] - The computer industry is expected to maintain a positive trend, with a focus on AI applications and smart vehicles [17]

NO.1 国常会：更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳 6月13日，国务院常务会议指出，构建房地产发展新模式，对于促进房地产市场平稳、健康、高质量发 展具有重要意义，要着眼长远，坚持稳中求进、先立后破，有序搭建相关基础性制度。要扎实有力推 进"好房子"建设，纳入城市更新机制加强工作统筹，在规划、土地、财政、金融等方面予以政策支持。 要对全国房地产已供土地和在建项目进行摸底，进一步优化现有政策，提升政策实施的系统性有效性， 多管齐下稳定预期、激活需求、优化供给、化解风险，更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳。 点评：此次会议释放了强烈的政策信号，表明政府对房地产市场的重视，旨在通过构建新模式推动市场 止跌回稳。将"好房子"建设纳入城市更新机制，有助于提升住房品质，满足居民对高品质住房的需求， 同时也能带动相关产业发展。 NO.2广州拟全面取消限购、限售、限价 6月13日，广州发布《广州市提振消费专项行动实施方案（征求意见稿）》，明确提出全面取消限购、 限售、限价，降低贷款首付比例和利率。广州也成为一线城市中首个"三限"（限购、限售、限价）全面 松绑的城市。 NO.4新城发展将回购2025年到期优先票据 6月13日，新城发展 ...

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a significant recovery in consumption this year, with stable growth in manufacturing and infrastructure investment, and resilient export performance, suggesting a positive shift in the economy's "three drivers" [1] - Economic growth in the second quarter is expected to exceed 5%, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual target [1] - The new model of real estate development is anticipated to more effectively address structural supply-demand mismatches in the second half of the year [1] - Continued support for foreign trade policies is expected to inject more certainty into the economy amid declining global economic momentum and rising geopolitical and trade uncertainties [1]

数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 房地产 沪深300 房地产 行 业 研 究 房地产 2025 年 06 月 15 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 相关研究报告 《新房成交面积同环比下降，城市更 新示范城市扩容 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.6.8 《城市更新示范城市扩容，去库存进 程有望提速 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.6.6 《"好房子"系列专题一：四代宅崛起， 政策红利与产品创新驱动居住升级— 行业深度报告》-2025.6.4 | 新房二手房成交面积环比增长，广州全面取消限购限 | | --- | 售 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | 证书编号：S0790124070064 | 核心观点：新房二手房成交面 ...