Group 1: A-Share Market Focus - The export growth for 2025 is expected to reach 5.3%, supported by resilient non-US exports and a potential easing of US tariffs [10][12][11] - The appreciation of the RMB is driven by several factors, including lower-than-expected US inflation data, which has increased market expectations for future Fed rate cuts [13][14] - Key sectors to watch include those sensitive to RMB appreciation, such as aviation, gas, and paper industries, which historically show significant stock price elasticity during appreciation phases [19][14] Group 2: US Market Focus - Economic growth in the US is projected to slow in the first half of 2026, influenced by factors such as the end of preemptive consumption and a slowdown in capital expenditures related to AI [31][35] - The K-shaped recovery in the US economy indicates that high-income consumers are driving growth, while lower-income consumers face increasing financial strain [35][31] - The upcoming Fed leadership change may influence monetary policy, with potential for further rate cuts depending on the new chair's stance [36][41] Group 3: Oil Market Focus - The impact of recent events in Venezuela on oil prices is expected to be limited in the short term, with US oil companies likely to benefit first [49][51] - Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves globally but ranks 22nd in production, indicating challenges in translating reserves into output [53]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market is expected to enter a "golden period" in 2026, driven by four major factors: the influx of deposits, RMB appreciation, increased insurance funds, and a shift of funds from the bond market to equities [3][11]. Group 1: Influx of Deposits - A significant amount of deposits, approximately 32 trillion yuan, will mature between 2025 and 2026, leading to a potential influx into the stock market [3][11]. - The estimated inflow scenarios for 2026 are: conservative scenario of 800 to 1,000 billion yuan, neutral scenario of 1,500 to 2,200 billion yuan, and optimistic scenario reaching up to 3,000 billion yuan [3][11]. - It is noted that not all matured deposits will flow into the stock market, with 60%-70% potentially diverted to other uses, but even 30%-40% represents a substantial increase [3][11]. Group 2: RMB Appreciation - Starting from the end of 2025, the RMB is expected to enter an appreciation phase, with potential funding sources including northbound capital, foreign trade settlement, and foreign direct investment [4][12]. - The estimated inflow scenarios for RMB appreciation are: conservative scenario of 500 to 600 billion yuan, neutral scenario of 800 to 1,200 billion yuan, and optimistic scenario of 1,500 to 1,800 billion yuan [4][12][13]. - The sustainability of RMB appreciation is deemed more important than the magnitude, with domestic economic recovery being crucial for attracting long-term foreign capital [4][13]. Group 3: Increased Insurance Funds - Insurance capital has already shown its strength by investing in the CSI A500 index fund, indicating a strong commitment to the market [5][14]. - Predictions for insurance capital inflow in 2026 range from 3,000 to 7,700 billion yuan, with estimates from various institutions varying significantly [5][14]. - Insurance funds are characterized as long-term value investors, suggesting a positive outlook for the A-share market in 2026 [5][14]. Group 4: Shift of Funds from Bond Market - A historical shift of funds from the bond market to equities has been observed, which is expected to continue into 2026 due to declining bond yields and the attractiveness of equity returns [6][15]. - The estimated inflow scenarios for bond market funds are: conservative scenario of 800 to 1,000 billion yuan, neutral scenario of 1,500 to 2,200 billion yuan, and optimistic scenario reaching up to 3,000 billion yuan [6][15]. - In total, under a neutral scenario, the combined new funding sources for 2026 could reach 4.1 to 6.17 trillion yuan, with optimistic scenarios exceeding 9 trillion yuan [6][15].

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (02689) has seen its stock price rise over 20% in the month, reaching a new high of 7.35 HKD, driven by supply reductions and price increases in the paper industry [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Nine Dragons Paper's stock increased by 8.43% to 7.33 HKD, with a trading volume of 165 million HKD [1] - The stock price has reached its highest level since January 2023, indicating strong market performance [1] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - Major packaging paper companies, including Nine Dragons, Shanying, Lee & Man, and Rongcheng, have undertaken large-scale maintenance shutdowns, actively reducing supply [1] - Companies in the white card and cultural paper sectors, such as Bohui, APP, and Asia Pulp & Paper, have collectively announced price increases [1] - The appreciation of the RMB, which recently broke the 7 mark, is expected to lower the cost of imported pulp, thereby improving the profitability of the paper industry [1] - The industry has been in a prolonged bottoming phase, with a long-term trend of supply-demand improvement being established [1] - Attention is drawn to the potential impact of anti-competition policies in the paper sector and marginal changes in demand that could contribute to cyclical elasticity [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper (02689) has seen its stock price rise over 20% in the month, reaching a new high of HKD 7.35, driven by supply reductions and price increases in the paper industry [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Nine Dragons Paper's stock rose by 8.43% to HKD 7.33, with a trading volume of HKD 165 million [1] - The stock price has increased over 20% within the month, indicating strong market performance [1] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - Major packaging paper companies, including Nine Dragons, Shanying, Lee & Man, and Rongcheng, have undertaken large-scale maintenance shutdowns, actively reducing supply [1] - Companies such as Bohui, APP, and Asia Pulp & Paper have collectively announced price increases for white card and cultural paper [1] Group 3: Economic Factors - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi beyond 7 is expected to lower the cost of imported pulp, benefiting the profitability of the paper industry [1] - Bohai Securities notes that the domestic paper industry has a reliance on overseas pulp, and the currency appreciation will help improve profit margins [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan highlights a long-term trend of supply-demand improvement in the industry, with potential benefits from policies aimed at reducing competition and marginal demand changes [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - bull and slow - bull pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated, forming a triple resonance of "policy support, capital escort, and industry drive" [3][11] - Precious metals are expected to maintain a long - term upward trend, with the price centers of silver and platinum likely to rise steadily [2][19] - The price of copper is affected by market sentiment in the short term, and the global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a deficit [3][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chief Comment - The China Securities Regulatory Commission will improve the long - term capital investment system, enhance service for science and technology innovation enterprises, and strengthen regulatory law enforcement [1] - The US may lift additional sanctions on Venezuela to promote oil exports [1] Key Varieties - **Precious Metals**: The long - term upward trend is expected to continue. Gold is supported by factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit and central bank gold purchases. Silver and platinum are also driven by supply - demand gaps in addition to macro factors [2] - **Stock Index**: The long - bull and slow - bull pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated. Supply - side reform will push up commodity prices and drive up resource - based stocks. Overseas funds are expected to flow back [3] - **Copper**: The supply of concentrates is tight, and the global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a deficit. The short - term price is affected by market sentiment [3] Variety Views | Variety | Bias | | --- | --- | | Stock Index (IH) | Bullish | | Stock Index (IF) | Bullish | | Stock Index (IC) | Bullish | | Stock Index (IM) | Bullish | | Treasury Bond (TF) | Bullish | | Treasury Bond (TS) | Bullish | | Crude Oil | Bearish | | Methanol | Bearish | | Rubber | Bullish | | Rebar | Bullish | | Hot - Rolled Coil | Bullish | | Iron Ore | Bullish | | Coking Coal | Bullish | | Coke | Bullish | | Silicomanganese | Bullish | | Ferrosilicon | Bullish | | Gold | Bullish | | Silver | Bullish | | Copper | Bullish | | Aluminum | Bullish | | Lithium Carbonate | Bullish | | Cotton | Bullish | | Sugar | Bullish | | Apple | Bearish | | Corn | Bullish | | Container Shipping to Europe | Bearish | [5] Main News Concerns on the Day - **International News**: The Fed's January 2026 interest - rate cut expectation has completely disappeared. The US non - farm payrolls in December 2025 increased by 50,000, lower than expected [6] - **Domestic News**: The State Council executive meeting deployed a package of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal and financial coordination [7] - **Industry News**: Starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be cancelled, and the VAT export tax rebate rate for battery products will be adjusted [8] Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.65%, the European STOXX 50 rose 1.39%, and the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.24% from January 8th to January 9th [10] Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: The long - bull and slow - bull pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated. Treasury bond futures are generally weak due to the strong market risk appetite [11][12][13] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical factors. Methanol is mainly affected by Iranian supply. The upward momentum of polyolefins may slow down after continuous rebounds [14][15][17] - **Metals**: Precious metals are expected to rise in the long term. Copper prices are affected by market sentiment in the short term. Aluminum prices are affected by macro factors and downstream demand [19][20][22] - **Black Metals**: The short - term trend of coking coal and coke is expected to be strong. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate slightly upward [25][26] - **Agricultural Products**: Protein meal prices are under pressure. Palm oil prices are affected by production concerns. Sugar prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [28][29][30] - **Shipping Index**: The freight rate of container shipping to Europe may enter a downward channel in mid - January [32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that in 2026, supply - side reform will continue, pushing up commodity prices and driving up resource - based stocks. The RMB has been appreciating against the US dollar since December, and with the weakening of the US dollar in the interest - rate cut cycle, overseas funds are expected to flow back, leading to the revaluation of Chinese assets. Under multiple positive factors, the long - term and steady upward trend of A - shares is expected to be consolidated, forming a triple resonance of "policy support, capital escort, and industrial drive" [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4764.80, 4753.20, 4743.80, and 4702.00 respectively, with increases of 32.00, 32.80, 33.60, and 36.80. The trading volumes were 39087.00, 6304.00, 85400.00, and 17551.00, and the open interest changes were - 1508.00, 2122.00, 6540.00, and 3317.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 3133.00, 3132.80, 3134.80, and 3123.20 respectively, with increases of 17.40, 18.40, 19.20, and 17.40. The trading volumes were 12774.00, 2091.00, 33032.00, and 5808.00, and the open interest changes were 56.00, 578.00, 216.00, and 788.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 8088.20, 8058.20, 8037.80, and 7865.60 respectively, with increases of 206.60, 218.60, 233.40, and 230.20. The trading volumes were 42842.00, 11442.00, 110023.00, and 24589.00, and the open interest changes were 793.00, 3543.00, 15856.00, and 4181.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 8160.20, 8098.80, 8048.40, and 7824.20 respectively, with increases of 219.20, 227.60, 239.60, and 241.20. The trading volumes were 54173.00, 12796.00, 149124.00, and 31696.00, and the open interest changes were 325.00, 3555.00, 10585.00, and 4756.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were - 11.60, - 0.20, - 30.00, and - 61.40 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 11.60, - 0.80, - 40.20, and - 73.60 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4758.92, 3134.32, 7651.20, and 8129.18 respectively, with increases of 0.45, 0.39, 2.49, and 1.98. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 254.69, 60.15, 251.85, and 381.04, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 6687.89, 1777.40, 5046.90, and 7053.23 [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Different industries in the CSI 300 had different increases or decreases. For example, the energy, raw materials, and industrial sectors had increases of 1.15%, 1.51%, and 0.53% respectively, while the real - estate and finance sector had a decrease of - 0.51% [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts**: The basis of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) against the CSI 300 were 5.88, - 5.72, - 15.12, and - 56.92 respectively, compared with the previous values of 0.15, - 11.45, - 19.25, and - 64.45 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The basis of IH contracts against the SSE 50 were - 1.32, - 1.52, 0.48, and - 11.12 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 0.46, - 1.26, 0.34, and - 8.86 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The basis of IC contracts against the CSI 500 were 31.51, 1.51, - 18.89, and - 191.09 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 5.14, - 45.34, - 80.14, and - 253.54 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The basis of IM contracts against the CSI 1000 were 31.02, - 30.38, - 80.78, and - 304.98 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 17.59, - 91.19, - 150.99, and - 374.39 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 4120.43, 14120.15, 8672.11, and 3327.81 respectively, with increases of 0.92%, 1.15%, 1.26%, and 0.77% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 26231.79, 51117.26, 6966.28, and 25261.64 respectively, with increases of 0.32%, - 1.63%, 0.65%, and 0.53% [1] 3.5 Macro Information - The vice - chairman of the CSRC stated that efforts will be made to improve the institutional environment for long - term investment, enhance services for technology - innovation enterprises, and strengthen regulatory enforcement [2] - This week, important events include the release of China's December 2025 foreign trade data, US CPI and PPI data, and the possible announcement of a tariff ruling by the US Supreme Court [2] - The National Commerce Work Conference outlined eight key tasks for the national commerce system in 2026, such as boosting consumption and promoting trade innovation [2] - The Hong Kong SAR government's financial secretary said that the new budget will be released on February 25, with the operating account expected to return to surplus and the capital account still in deficit [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Fund companies and sales institutions received a notice on the implementation of regulations on fund sales fees, with three key points attracting attention [2] - China's public REITs market had a good start in the first trading week of 2026 [2] - The Chinese photovoltaic industry is at a historical turning point due to the cancellation of export tax - rebates and the end of industry self - regulation, which may lead to a reconstruction of the industry's valuation system [2] 3.7 Stock Index Viewpoint - US stock indexes rose, and the previous trading day saw an increase in the A - share market, with the media sector leading the rise and the banking sector leading the decline. The market turnover was 3.15 trillion yuan [2] - On January 8, the margin trading balance increased by 15.944 billion yuan to 2.603155 trillion yuan [2]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Hong Kong stock market and various sectors including futures trading, virtual currency exchanges, and aluminum production. [1][2][5] Key Points and Arguments Hong Kong Stock Market - Significant inflow of capital into the Hong Kong stock market, with net inflow from January 1 to January 8 exceeding the total for December [1][2] - The appreciation of the Renminbi is expected to enhance the attractiveness of Hong Kong stocks to foreign investors [2] South China Futures - South China Futures has seen rapid growth in international business, with margin scale increasing from 3 billion to approximately 16 billion since 2021 [6] - Expected overseas business profit could reach 600 million RMB, benefiting from the shift of settlement business to Chinese companies and the interest rate environment [6][7] Virtual Currency Exchanges - Hashkey Holdings and OSL Group are actively developing in the virtual currency sector, with OSL Group projecting significant revenue growth by 2025 despite current losses [8][9] - OSL's revenue increased by nearly 60% in 2025, with trading volume up 200%, but the company remains in a loss position [9][10] - Hashkey focuses on building foundational systems and has a high percentage of institutional users [11] Securities and Financial Services - Yao Cai Securities reported a 6% increase in revenue and a 4.5% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by a 77% increase in brokerage income due to higher trading volumes [12][13] - The company has implemented technology to enhance customer retention and cross-border trading activity [12] Aluminum Industry - Innovation Industry has a strong position in the aluminum sector, with low power costs and logistical advantages [14] - The company plans to increase production capacity significantly by 2027, anticipating a supply-demand imbalance in the industry [14] Tungsten Resources - Jiaxing International owns a large open-pit tungsten mine with low extraction costs and significant resource potential [15][16] - The company is expected to increase production capacity significantly by 2027, with tungsten prices having risen over 200% since early 2025 [17] JD Industrial - JD Industrial, a subsidiary of JD Group, has shown steady growth with a focus on MRO and BOM segments, aiming to expand its market significantly [18][19] - The company reported an 18.9% revenue growth in the first half of 2025, with a focus on improving gross margins [19] Robotics Industry - Geekplus Robotics is a leader in the AMR sector, with a strong competitive edge due to its technology and customer base [20][21] - The company is expected to enter the Hong Kong Stock Connect in February 2026, which could act as a catalyst for its stock price [24] Biotech Sector - Weili Zhibo is developing next-generation antibody therapies with promising clinical data [25][26] - The company is focusing on universal CAR-T therapies, which could significantly reduce treatment costs compared to autologous CAR-T therapies [29][30] Other Important Insights - The upcoming adjustments to the Hong Kong Stock Connect are expected to include around 50 new stocks, primarily in healthcare, information technology, and consumer discretionary sectors [5] - The potential impact of U.S. government decisions and domestic policies in China on the market was discussed, highlighting the interconnectedness of global and local factors [3][4] This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the relevant industries.

Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market has shown strong performance with a trading volume of 3 trillion yuan, breaking through the 4100-point mark [1] - Margin trading balance has surged to 2.6 trillion yuan, a historical high, indicating a dominant bullish sentiment among investors [1] - The willingness of investors to open new accounts has increased significantly, reflecting a high enthusiasm for market participation [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year, the highest in nearly a year, indicating an improvement in consumer spending [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has seen a narrowing decline, reaching its lowest level in over a year, suggesting easing price pressures in the industrial sector [2] - Macroeconomic policies, including continued monetary easing and targeted fiscal measures, have contributed to the positive economic signals [2] Group 3: Corporate Developments - Sinopec's acquisition of China Aviation Oil represents a strategic merger aimed at cost reduction and efficiency improvement, highlighting the ongoing benefits of state-owned enterprise reforms [3] - Recent policies to eliminate export tax rebates for certain industries are expected to accelerate the elimination of smaller firms, benefiting leading companies in the market [3] Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The government has initiated anti-monopoly investigations into food delivery platforms, reflecting a zero-tolerance approach to unfair competition in the platform economy [4] - This regulatory action is anticipated to support the healthy development of the offline restaurant industry and may positively impact the Hang Seng Index [4]

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aims to improve the institutional environment for long-term investments and increase the proportion of medium to long-term funds entering the market [1] - The CSRC will enhance the precision and effectiveness of services for technology innovation enterprises and deepen reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary announced potential easing of sanctions on Venezuela to promote oil exports, indicating a shift in international economic relations [1] Group 2 - Precious metals have rebounded due to easing inflation pressures in the U.S. and expectations of interest rate cuts, supported by a global easing liquidity environment [2] - Gold's long-term upward trend is expected to continue, bolstered by central bank purchases and a weakening dollar [2] - Silver and platinum are also supported by supply-demand gaps, with silver experiencing tight supply and robust industrial demand, particularly from the solar energy sector [2] Group 3 - U.S. stock indices rose, with the media sector leading gains and the banking sector lagging, while market turnover reached 3.15 trillion yuan [3] - The financing balance increased by 15.944 billion yuan, indicating a positive sentiment in the market [3] - The appreciation of the RMB against the USD is expected to attract overseas capital back to China, supporting asset revaluation [3] Group 4 - Copper prices rose due to tight concentrate supply and stable demand from the power and automotive sectors, despite a weak real estate market [20] - The overall copper supply-demand outlook is shifting towards a deficit, influenced by market sentiment [20] - The market is advised to monitor changes in the dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [20]

Core Viewpoint - The China Macro Economic Forum (CMF) predicts a gradual warming of the economy in 2026, with GDP growth expected to rebound across multiple dimensions, including price levels and investment [1] Economic Growth - The report forecasts that the actual GDP growth will be in the range of 4.5% to 5% for the year, approaching the upper limit [1] - Both actual and nominal GDP growth rates are expected to rise, with nominal growth showing a more significant rebound [1] Price Levels - Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to gradually recover to a moderate range, while the decline in Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to narrow, alleviating negative effects related to prices [1] Consumption Sector - The consumption market is projected to operate steadily in 2026, with a recovery in dining consumption and the emergence of new consumption formats driven by AI and robotics [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow at around 4% for the year [1] Investment Sector - Investment is expected to stabilize, with infrastructure investment recovering first and a significant reduction in the decline of real estate investment [1] - There will be a notable structural optimization combining "investment in physical assets" and "investment in human capital" such as education and healthcare [1] Policy Recommendations - Experts suggest that stabilizing prices should be a core policy focus in 2026, aiming to bring CPI closer to a target of 2% while controlling real estate supply to avoid negative impacts on consumption and investment [2] - The long-term trend of the RMB appreciating is seen as a necessary step for China to advance towards a high-income country, with policies needing to accommodate this trend [2] - A balance between "technological self-reliance" and "improving people's livelihoods" is emphasized, advocating for breakthroughs in AI and advanced manufacturing while enhancing social security measures [2]