据CME"美联储观察"：美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为13.8%，降息25个基点的概率为86.2%。美联储 10月维持利率不变的概率为6.7%，累计降息25个基点的概率为49.1%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 44.2%。 来源：新浪网 美联储理事沃勒：支持美联储9月会议降息25个基点 美联储理事沃勒表示，支持美联储9月会议降息25个基点，预计未来3—6个月将进一步降息；除非8月份 就业报告显示经济大幅疲软且通胀保持良好控制，否则不认为9月份需要更大幅度的降息。剔除关税的 暂时影响，潜在通胀率接近2%；政策利率"适度限制"，预计比中性利率高出1.25至1.50个百分点。 美联储9月降息概率为86.2% 8月29日，人民币兑美元中间价较上日调升33点至7.1030，升值至2024年11月6日以来最高。离岸人民币 现报7.12。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

记者丨江佩霞 编辑丨陈思颖 当地时间8月28日，美股三大指数集体收涨，道指、标普500指数再创收盘新高，大型科技股多 数上涨，量子计算概念股领涨。离岸人民币汇率大涨超300点。 28日晚间离岸人民币汇率一度涨至7.1173元，为2024年11月6日以来首次突破7.12元，创近10 个月以来新高 ，值得注意的是，人民币升值的幅度远超美元贬值幅度。 调控政策，人民币汇率就有望重返6时代，中国资产吸引力大概率提升。 一图看懂人民币汇率双向波动背后的影响→ 据21财经·南财快讯记者观察，29日离岸人民币报价逼近2024年11月5日纽约尾盘最终报价 7.1017元、当年10月1日顶部7.0012元、当年9月30日顶部6.9735元、以及当年9月26日顶 部6.9713元。 8月29日，在岸人民币对美元夜盘收盘报7.1306，较上一交易日夜盘收涨194个基点。 消息面上，8月28日，美股盘前公布数据显示，美国二季度实际GDP年化季环比上调至3.3%， 高于此前报告的3%。美国上周首申失业金人数小幅下降至22.9万，续请人数降至195.4万，双 双低于预期。 美联储理事沃勒表示， 支持美联储9月会议降息25个基点，预计未来 ...

Group 1 - The offshore RMB exchange rate surged by approximately 300 points, breaking the 7.12 yuan mark for the first time since November 6, 2024, with the appreciation of the RMB significantly outpacing the depreciation of the USD [1] - Three main factors contributing to the recent appreciation of the RMB include the weakening of the USD index, domestic policies aimed at increasing asset returns, and the central bank's approach to adjusting the RMB based on a basket of currencies [1] - Various industries such as transportation, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, machinery, home appliances, electronics, and power equipment are expected to benefit from the appreciation of the RMB [1] Group 2 - For companies like Huahui Paper, the large production capacity and strong profitability at the bottom range indicate significant potential for growth [2] - Huaxia Airlines, an independent private airline, focuses on regional transportation, highlighting its niche market strategy [3]

Group 1 - The onshore and offshore RMB against the US dollar both broke the 7.14 mark, driven by external factors such as the Federal Reserve's policy shift and internal factors like the recovery of the domestic capital market and increased risk appetite [1] Group 2 - Three banks in Sichuan, namely Chengdu Bank, Chengdu Rural Commercial Bank, and Sichuan Bank, are planning to jointly apply for a wealth management company, with preparations already underway [2] Group 3 - Major banks are accelerating their securities account opening business in response to the significant recovery of the A-share market, with a 70.54% year-on-year increase in new investors in July 2025 [3] - The collaboration between banks and securities firms is seen as a necessary adaptation to changing market demands, integrating basic financial services and investment opportunities into a single ecosystem [3] Group 4 - The issuance of technology innovation bonds (科创债) has reached a total scale of 2,273 billion yuan, reflecting strong market demand for financing in technology innovation since the launch of the "technology board" in May [4] - A total of 814 technology innovation bonds have been issued, with 34 banks participating, indicating a robust response to the financing needs of emerging technology enterprises [4] Group 5 - Several banks are actively transferring non-performing credit card loans, with significant discounts on the transfer prices, indicating a strong commitment to cleaning up non-performing assets [5] - The large-scale transfer of non-performing loans is a strategy for banks to optimize their asset structure and improve liquidity [5]

【导读】人民币大涨300点 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，今晚继续关注一下海外市场的表现。 离岸人民币汇率大涨300点 先来看一下中国资产的表现，8月28日晚间，离岸人民币汇率大涨约300点，一度 涨至7.1173元，为2024年11月6日以来首次 突破7.12元，值得注意的是，人民币升值的幅度 远超美元贬值幅度。 | 篇岸人民币(香港) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 汇 USDCNH | | | | | | | | 7.1214 -0.0297 -0.4153% | | | | | | | | 08-28 23:55:20 | | | | | | 反向 | | 今开 | 7.1511 | 最高 | 7.1536 | 振幅 | | 0.5076% | | 昨收 | 7.1511 | 最低 | 7.1173 | 波幅 | | 0.0363 | | 分时 | 王日 | 日K | 围K | 月K | 更多, | | | 最新:7.1214 -0.0297 -0.4153% | | | | | 分时成交 | | | 7.1849 ...

Group 1 - The core concern is whether US tech stocks will decline, which may impact domestic AI sectors [1][2] - There is a rising short-term uncertainty regarding US stock adjustments, influenced by seasonal patterns and negative AI commentary [2][3] - The potential for fluctuating interest rate policies by the Federal Reserve could disrupt market stability, particularly with upcoming economic data releases [3][4] Group 2 - The recent increase in global long-term bond yields indicates underlying risks in the market, despite previous optimism regarding recovery post-tariff adjustments [4] - The possibility of RMB appreciation could provide liquidity support for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, driven by stable export growth and trade surpluses [5] - Significant capital inflow is anticipated, with an estimated 300 billion RMB in compensatory settlement from exports in the first half of the year [5]

Group 1: Financial Institutions Performance - Multiple financial institutions reported their mid-year performance for 2025, showing net profit growth: China Life achieved a net profit of 40.931 billion yuan, up 6.9% year-on-year; CITIC Bank reported a net profit of 36.478 billion yuan, a 2.78% increase; China Pacific Insurance recorded a net profit of 26.53 billion yuan, growing 16.9% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Currency Exchange Rate - The central parity rate of the RMB against the USD was raised by 80 basis points to 7.1108, the highest since November 6, 2024. The previous day's rate was 7.1188, and the onshore RMB closed at 7.1621 [2] - The RMB has appreciated by a total of 479 basis points against the USD since the beginning of 2025, driven by a decline in the USD index of over 10% [2] Group 3: A-share Banking Sector - The A-share banking sector experienced a continuous decline, with Postal Savings Bank dropping over 4%, and other banks like Everbright Bank, Minsheng Bank, Agricultural Bank, and Bank of Communications falling over 2% [3] Group 4: Life Insurance Industry Insights - China Ping An's co-CEO Guo Xiaotao stated that the life insurance sector has entered a golden development period, serving as a cornerstone for wealth management among the middle-income group. Life insurance offers threefold value: wealth preservation and appreciation, protection for clients and their families, and added services for healthcare and retirement [4]

Group 1 - The core logic behind the current A-share market rally is based on two main points: the transition into a capital return era and the continuous inflow of international capital [1][2] - From 2018 to now, China's resident deposits have increased from 78 trillion yuan to 166 trillion yuan, indicating a significant capital surplus that will likely flow into the stock market, driving overall market valuations higher [2] - The inflow of international capital is ongoing, with historical trends suggesting that mature industrialized economies often experience currency appreciation, which is expected for the Chinese yuan as it has maintained a long-term current account surplus [2] Group 2 - The current market is at a critical turning point characterized by a recovery and rebalancing phase, which may only be in its early stages [1] - The comparison of the industrialization process to a human lifecycle illustrates that the current phase is akin to a mature adult, showcasing comprehensive advantages that will likely lead to asset revaluation [2] - The combination of domestic capital surplus and international capital inflow is supporting the current market trend and is expected to become more evident over time [2]

经济战线硝烟未散，美国突然以"协助伊朗石油运输"为由，对中国两家企业实施制裁。明面上打击的是中伊石油贸易（占伊朗出口总量的 70%），实则是试探中国在能源安全领域的底线。 对中国而言，这场资本盛宴暗藏机遇。美元流动性泛滥下，国际热钱正加速涌入中国市场，基建、科技等领域或迎来新一轮投资潮。但隐 忧同样存在——人民币升值可能挤压出口利润，中美利差变化或将扰动金融市场稳定性。专家警告，中国需在开放与风险间找到精准平衡 点。 就在美联储犹豫之际，新西兰、印度和欧盟五国（德国、法国、比利时、奥地利、丹麦）突然打响"物流反击战"。8月26日美国取消小额包 裹免税政策的最后期限前，七国集体宣布暂停对美寄递服务。这场看似局部的冲突，实则是全球对"美国优先"的愤怒总爆发。 2025年8月，美联储释放降息信号，全球市场瞬间沸腾。这一决策背后，是特朗普政府的双重算计——既要缓解37万亿美元债务的利息重 压，又要对冲关税战引发的通胀风险。但降息绝非单纯的经济手段，更是政治博弈的棋子。特朗普通过施压美联储主席鲍威尔，试图将"经 济救世主"的人设焊死在任期内，却可能彻底撕裂货币政策的独立性。 分析指出，美国企图用"釜底抽薪"战术——切断 ...

波动升值走势下，人民币汇率再创阶段新高。8月25日，根据中国外汇交易中心披露的数据，人民币中 间价大幅调升160个基点至7.1161元，创2024年11月以来新高。同日，在岸人民币对美元、离岸人民币 对美元汇率双双升值，盘中一度收复7.15关口，均创下近一个月以来升值高点。 当地时间8月22日，美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的年度经济研讨会上发 表讲话，暗示尽管当前存在通胀上行风险，但美联储仍可能在未来数月降息，由此加剧了美国金融市场 动荡，美元指数单日下跌0.94%。分析人士指出，若美联储降息预期兑现，美元或进一步走弱，推动人 民币被动升值。 人民币中间价单日调升160基点 8月25日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，当日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为1美元对 人民币7.1161元，相较前一交易日中间价7.1321元，调升160个基点，创2024年11月以来新高。2025年5 月中旬以来，人民币对美元中间价升值态势明显，从7.2左右波动升值至当前7.11附近。 中信证券首席经济学家明明告诉北京商报记者，近期，稳汇率政策张弛有度、国内权益市场表现较好带 动外资流入以及美联储降息预 ...