Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report The report provides trend analyses and trading suggestions for various energy and chemical futures on July 24, 2025. Different futures are expected to have different trends, including upward, downward, and sideways movements, influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and macro - economic conditions [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply - demand remains tight. Suggest rolling long on the monthly spread. The domestic plant operating rate has decreased, and some plants have reduced loads unexpectedly. PTA's operating rate has rebounded, and overall supply has increased. There is still a profit in PX processing [9]. - **PTA**: The unilateral trend is upward. Pay attention to the long - PTA short - PF spread. Downstream polyester inventory has decreased, and the probability of production cuts has declined. The inventory accumulation speed of PTA has slowed down [9]. - **MEG**: Conduct a reverse spread on the 9 - 1 monthly spread. The unilateral trend has turned upward. Rising coal prices support the cost of coal - chemical products, and the long - term trend is expected to be upward [10]. 2. Rubber - The rubber market is expected to move sideways. The trading volume and open interest have decreased, and the spot price has declined slightly. The export of small - passenger - car tires in the first half of 2025 was generally at a high level, but there may be a decline in July [11][14][15]. 3. Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market is supported to move sideways. The port inventory of butadiene is at a low level. In the short term, the price center of butadiene rubber is gradually rising, but in the medium term, the supply increase may limit the price increase [16][18]. 4. Asphalt - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate repeatedly. The total weekly output has decreased, the refinery inventory has decreased, and the social inventory has increased slightly. The operating rate of refineries has decreased [20][30]. 5. LLDPE - The LLDPE market is expected to move within a range. The market price has mostly increased, but the trading volume is average. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand support is weak. The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the downstream is in the off - season [31][32][33]. 6. PP - The spot price of PP has increased slightly, but the trading is light. The futures price has risen, and the basis has changed. The market sentiment is average, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high [36][37]. 7. Caustic Soda - The rebound of caustic soda is difficult to sustain. The price in Shandong has fluctuated. The supply pressure will gradually increase in July and August, but the export can digest the new - capacity pressure. The demand is in the off - season, but there is cost support [39][40][41]. 8. Pulp - The pulp market is expected to move weakly sideways. The futures price has increased slightly, and the spot price has been stable. The port inventory is high, and the demand is weak. The supply - demand situation of the living - paper market is weak [44][46][47]. 9. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The futures price has decreased, and the basis has changed. The spot price in the Shahe area has increased significantly, and the futures - related merchants' purchases have increased [49]. 10. Methanol - Methanol is expected to move upward. The spot price index has increased. The supply has decreased in the short term, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The market is expected to remain strong in the short term, but attention should be paid to the acceptance of high - priced goods by traditional downstream industries [54][55]. 11. Urea - Urea has entered a sideways pattern after the price dropped from a high level. The trading volume has decreased for two consecutive days, and the inventory decline has narrowed. The production capacity utilization rate has decreased slightly. The demand is weak, but there is some support from the "anti - involution" policy [57][59]. 12. Styrene - Styrene is a short - position allocation under strong market sentiment. The futures price has changed, and the profit margin has decreased [60]. 13. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has changed little. The futures price has increased slightly, and the basis has changed. The supply is at a high level, and the downstream demand is stable. The market is expected to be stable and fluctuate [63]. 14. LPG - LPG is expected to move weakly in the short term. The futures price has decreased slightly, and the trading volume has decreased. The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation have increased. There are many PDH device maintenance plans [66][68][74]. 15. PVC - The rebound of PVC is difficult to sustain. The spot price has weakened. The supply reduction drive is insufficient in the second half of the year, and the high - production and high - inventory situation is difficult to change. The export is affected, and the domestic demand is weak [78][79][80]. 16. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The downward trend of fuel oil continues, and the short - term weakness is difficult to change. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to move weakly sideways, and the high - low - sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market has rebounded slightly [81]. 17. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to move weakly sideways. It is recommended to reduce short positions in the October contract and hold reverse spreads for the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 contracts. The freight rate index has declined [83].

2025 年 07 月 24 日 尿素：成交转弱，高位回落，步入震荡格局 | | 杨鈜汉 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | | yanghonghan@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | 尿素基本面数据 | | | | | | | | 项 | 目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 （09合约） | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,773 | 1,817 | -44 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,788 | 1,806 | -18 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 288,338 | 314,653 | -26315 | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 180,800 | 191,764 | -10964 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 2,523 | 2,523 | 0 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 1,030,856 | 1,136,221 | -10536 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, the price center of cis - butadiene rubber will gradually move up and run strongly. In the medium term, the synthetic rubber fundamentals face significant pressure, and the increase in supply may limit price elasticity and upside potential [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract of cis - butadiene rubber was 11,875 yuan/ton, down 225 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 125,082 lots, up from 121,387 lots; the open interest was 48,591 lots, down 760 lots; the turnover was 750.681 million yuan, up 20.647 million yuan [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene - futures main contract changed from - 100 to 125; the monthly spread of BR08 - BR09 changed from 15 to 35; the prices of North China, East China, and South China's private cis - butadiene decreased by 100, 50, and 50 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Spot Market**: The market price of Shandong cis - butadiene (delivery product) remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton; the prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene (models 1502 and 1712) remained unchanged; the prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 50 and 100 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Fundamentals**: The operating rate of cis - butadiene increased by 2.96 percentage points to 71.3912%; the theoretical full cost and profit of cis - butadiene remained unchanged at 12,388 yuan/ton and - 388 yuan/ton respectively [1] 3.2 Industry News - As of July 23, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 15,700 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons from the previous period. Limited arrival of imported vessels and weather - related delays in some vessel arrivals led to normal consumption of downstream raw material inventory and low sample port inventory [2] - As of July 23, 2025 (Week 30), the inventory of China's high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons, a slight increase of 0.22% from the previous period. Due to macro news and rising raw material costs, the spot and futures markets were expected to run strongly, resulting in a slight decrease in sample production enterprise inventory and an increase in sample trading enterprise inventory [2][3]

Real Estate - In the first half of 2025, the transaction area of residential land in 30 core cities increased by 22.6% year-on-year, totaling 48.63 million square meters, accounting for 52.1% of the total residential land transaction area in 100 cities [3] - The average floor price of residential land reached 12,009 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.8% [3] - The overall premium rate for the core 30 cities was 13.5%, up by 8.4 percentage points year-on-year [3] Petrochemical Industry - The government is expected to introduce a work plan to stabilize growth in the petrochemical industry, which may lead to the elimination of outdated production capacity and promote healthy industry development [3] - The assessment phase for the elimination of old production capacity in the chemical industry is currently underway, which is anticipated to optimize supply-side dynamics [3] - A significant proportion of outdated refining facilities in China suggests that their elimination could enhance industry competitiveness [3] High-end Manufacturing - Exports to North America continued to decline in June, while the export of engineering machinery maintained a high level of prosperity [3] - From January to June, exports of electric tools and lawn mowers to North America decreased by 7% and 4% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The cumulative export growth rate for major engineering machinery categories remained in double digits, with excavators, tractors, and mining machinery showing growth rates of 22%, 26%, and 23% respectively [3] Company Insights: Visionox - Visionox has maintained its leading position in the global liquid crystal TV main control board market, with shipments of 67.22 million, 56.23 million, and 67.32 million units for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively [4] - The company's market share in global liquid crystal TV main control boards was 33.01%, 28.19%, and 32.72% for the same years [4] Company Insights: Bilibili - Bilibili's revenue for Q2 2025 is expected to reach 7.33 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.7% [4] - The revenue breakdown for major business segments includes gaming at 1.61 billion yuan (up 60% year-on-year), VAS at 2.82 billion yuan (up 10%), advertising at 2.42 billion yuan (up 19%), and e-commerce at 480 million yuan (down 8%) [4] - The expected gross profit for Q2 2025 is 2.68 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 36.5% [4] Company Insights: Haier Smart Home - Haier is expected to benefit from climate change as Europe experiences increasingly frequent and intense heatwaves [5] - The report from the European Medium-Range Weather Forecast Centre indicates that June 2025 may be one of the hottest on record for Europe [5] Company Insights: Zhou Hei Ya - Zhou Hei Ya is projected to achieve revenue of 1.2 to 1.24 billion yuan for H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.5% to 4.7% [6] - The company expects a profit of 90 to 113 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 55.2% to 94.8% [6] - The management mechanism of Zhou Hei Ya is noted for its flexibility, with a clear and prioritized strategy that is expected to lead to ongoing operational improvements [6]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical commodity prices are performing strongly due to multiple factors including anti-involution policies, infrastructure demand from the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower station, and supply disruptions from overseas chemical companies [1][2] Group 1: Industry Policies and Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is set to launch a work plan for stable growth in the petrochemical industry, aiming to eliminate outdated production capacity and promote healthy industry development [2][4] - The current phase of eliminating outdated capacity in the chemical industry is entering an evaluation stage, which is expected to optimize the supply side and enhance the overall competitiveness of chemical facilities [2][4] - The "anti-involution" policy is driving the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, which is a significant factor in improving market sentiment [5] Group 2: Supply Chain Disruptions - A fire at Covestro's plant in Dormagen, Germany, has caused a supply disruption of key raw materials for TDI production, leading to a short-term contraction in TDI supply and a strong price increase [3] - As of July 22, the average market price for TDI in China reached 16,250 yuan per ton, with a price increase of over 4,000 yuan per ton since the beginning of July, reflecting a 26% increase year-to-date [3] Group 3: Key Products and Indices - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) and its connected funds (017855/017856) track the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, which consists of stocks from the petrochemical sector, primarily focusing on basic chemicals and petroleum and petrochemicals [6]

2025 年 07 月 23 日 尿素：现货企稳，上方空间收窄 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,817 | 1,812 | 5 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,806 | 1,807 | - 1 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 314,653 | 329,271 | -14618 | | | （09合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 191,764 | 195,949 | -4185 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 2,523 | 2,523 | 0 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 1,136,221 | 1,189,793 | -53572 | | | 基 差 | | 山东地区基差 | 2 3 | 1 8 | 5 | | | | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -97 | -92 | - 5 | | | | 东光 ...

点击注册小程序 报告摘要 事件： 7月18日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍2025年上半年工业和信息化发展情况。工业和信息化部总 工程师谢少锋表示，将实施新一轮钢铁、有色金属、石化、建材等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案，推动重点行 业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能，具体工作方案将在近期陆续发布。 点评： 一、化工行业稳增长、反内卷政策即将出台，引导行业有序发展 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 我国化工行业于上世纪80年代进入快速发展期，部分上世纪建设的化工装置设备已经运行30年甚至40年以上， 存在设计建设标准和制造水平低、长周期运行后腐蚀减薄、安全保障能力下降等问题，化工老旧装置设备安全 风险进入集中暴露期。我国高度重视设备老化管理，2024年，应急管理部、工信部、国资委、市 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Urea is in a situation with support below and suppression above. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. In the short - term, it may follow the overall strength of commodities. In the medium - term, with the gradual opening of the export channel, there may be a phased rebound, but the agricultural demand is gradually weakening, and the fundamentals will continue to be under pressure in the second half of the year [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for urea in the monthly period is 1650 - 1950, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.16% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 62.1%. For methanol, the price range is 2200 - 2400, volatility is 20.01%, and historical percentile is 51.2%. For polypropylene and plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with volatility of 10.56% and 15.24% respectively, and historical percentiles of 42.2% and 78.5% [3] 3.2 Urea Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about urea price drops, for a long - position inventory, to prevent inventory superposition losses, 25% of UR2509 can be sold at 1800 - 1950 to lock in profits. Also, 50% of UR2509P1850 can be bought at 15 - 20, and 50% of UR2509C1950 can be sold at 45 - 60 to prevent price drops and reduce capital costs [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement standing inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short - position inventory, 50% of UR2509 can be bought at 1750 - 1900 to prevent price increases and lock in procurement costs. 75% of UR2509P1750 can be sold at 20 - 25 to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote key industries to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity, driving the overall strength of commodities. Urea may follow this trend in the short - term. In the medium - term, with export提货 by traders, inventory is unlikely to accumulate significantly, and factory quotes are rising slightly, supporting the price. However, agricultural demand is weakening, and the fundamentals will be under pressure in the second half of the year [4] 3.4利多 and 利空 Interpretations - **利多**: Urea exports have been confirmed. In a market with strong speculation, the futures are expected to show wide - range fluctuations, and the lower support has increased [4] - **利空**: Domestic policies require factories to sell urea at low prices, which has a negative impact on the spot market sentiment [4]

2025 年 07 月 21 日 尿素：短期偏强运行 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 1. 2025 年 7 月 16 日，中国尿素企业总库存量 89.55 万吨，较上周减少 7.22 万吨，环比减少 7.46%。本周期国内尿素企业库存继续下降，近期尿素出口订单继续执行，部分尿素企业库存 加速下降。国内尿素需求走弱，价格呈现下降，部分工厂出货放缓库存增加。虽然局部尿素 库存涨跌不一，但整体库存仍以下降为主。整体而言，本周尿素成交连续多日活跃，短期一 批次出口仍在陆续提货，预计下周尿素生产企业库存呈现小幅去库的格局。（国泰君安期货尿 素晨报、隆众资讯） 2. 周五公开信息表示工业和信息化部将推动重点行业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能，"反 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,745 | 1,743 | 2 | | | | 结算价 | （元/ ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is 1, indicating a "偏强" (relatively strong) view, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [3]. 2) Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the price center of butadiene rubber is gradually moving up and showing a relatively strong performance. In the medium - term, the fundamentals of synthetic rubber face significant pressure, and the increase in supply may restrict price elasticity and upside potential [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Market**: For the butadiene rubber main contract (08 contract), the daily closing price was 11,720 yuan/ton (up 150 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 90,365 lots (up 20,978 lots), the open interest was 17,214 lots (down 1,197 lots), and the trading volume was 529.173 million yuan (up 129.436 million yuan) [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract was - 70 yuan (down 100 yuan), the monthly spread of BR08 - BR09 was 25 yuan (unchanged). The prices of North China, East China, and South China butadiene (private) increased by 50 yuan, 70 yuan, and 50 yuan respectively. The market price of Shandong butadiene (delivery product) increased by 50 yuan. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502 and 1712) increased by 150 yuan and 100 yuan respectively. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 50 yuan [1]. - **Spot Market**: The market price of Shandong butadiene (delivery product) was 11,650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the previous day. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502 and 1712) were 12,100 yuan/ton and 10,900 yuan/ton respectively, up 150 yuan and 100 yuan. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong were 9,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene operating rate was 66.3354%, up 1.05% from the previous day. The theoretical full cost of butadiene was 12,182 yuan/ton, unchanged. The butadiene profit was - 482 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. [Industry News] - As of July 16, 2025 (week 29), the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59%. During this period, supported by cost and boosted by macro - sentiment, the mainstream supply price and the spot and futures market once rose significantly, with the inventory of sample production enterprises decreasing and the inventory of sample trading enterprises increasing slightly [1]. - In the short - term, the price center of butadiene rubber is gradually moving up and showing a relatively strong performance. The reasons are: the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote key industries to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity, driving the overall strength of commodities; the rubber sector is generally strong, with the raw material price in Thailand stabilizing and the cup - lump price rebounding slightly, and there are many weather - related speculation points for natural rubber; the fundamentals of the synthetic rubber industry chain have improved marginally, with the explicit inventory of synthetic rubber decreasing slightly for two consecutive weeks, and the low arrival volume of butadiene in July leading to tight port supplies [1][3].