Market Overview - The bond market continued to show weakness, with most government bond futures closing lower and interbank bond yields rising slightly by around 0.5 basis points [1] - The central bank conducted a net injection of 58.5 billion yuan in the open market, while short-term funding rates exhibited some divergence [1] Bond Futures and Yields - The closing prices for government bond futures showed a decline, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.04% to 119.400, while the 10-year main contract remained flat at 108.730 [2] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly continued to rise, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 0.75 basis points to 1.705% [2] International Bond Markets - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 2-year yield down by 0.74 basis points to 3.974% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 5.3 basis points to 1.514% [3] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds from France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased [3] Primary Market Activity - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds had successful bids with yields of 1.4792%, 1.7059%, and 1.7985% for 1.074-year, 3-year, and 10-year maturities, respectively [4] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 215.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 58.5 billion yuan for the day [5] - The Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate declining by 4.1 basis points to 1.411% [5] Institutional Insights - Citic Securities indicated that uncertainty may persist in the economic landscape through 2025, with a projected GDP growth of 5% for the year [6] - China International Capital Corporation noted that credit bond supply may continue to recover, while short-term credit spreads are at historically low levels [7]

中信证券：经济或呈现"生产偏强、投资回升、消费稳健、出口仍具韧性"特点 金十数据5月28日讯，中信证券展望2025年中期宏观经济称，不确定性或贯穿2025年经济运行，回顾历 史上不确定性陡升时期，全球经济呈现阶段性收缩与结构性分化并存的特征。展望特朗普2.0时期，一 方面全球私人投资可能受不确定环境抑制，财政或积极扩张加以对冲，另一方面美国消费可能转弱，拖 累中国出口。预计财政扩张将更加聚焦促进消费回暖与价格修复，短期纾困与长期培育并举，以化解隐 债与转型升级推动基建投资回暖，地产调控仍着眼于供需再平衡。为解决产业结构性矛盾，政策将通过 市场化出清与构建公平竞争环境以改善制造业供需均衡，新质生产力与战略性新兴产业发展也将获金 融、科技政策持续支持。展望下半年经济表现，关税扰动仍是影响经济运行的主线，抢出口现象可能使 关税对经济的影响先"价"后"量"，物价端率先反映下行压力，但对GDP的影响可能较为滞后，全年GDP 有望实现5%增长，经济或呈现"生产偏强、投资回升、消费稳健、出口仍具韧性"的特点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The profit recovery in April is primarily due to short-term improvements in costs and expenses, but attention should be paid to the downward pressure on profits in the third quarter due to tariff disturbances [3][76]. Group 1: Profit and Revenue Analysis - In April, industrial profits increased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 2.9%, driven by improvements in cost and expense pressures [3][9]. - The contribution of costs and expenses to overall profit improved, with costs contributing +2.7 percentage points and expenses +0.5 percentage points [3][76]. - Actual operating revenue showed resilience, with a year-on-year decline of 1.6 percentage points to 5.5%, contributing 4.9% to overall profit growth [3][9]. Group 2: Cost Structure and Industry Performance - The overall cost rate for industrial enterprises was 86%, with a year-on-year marginal decline of 12.6 basis points [3][17]. - The cost rate for downstream consumer manufacturing increased by 59.7 basis points to 84.3%, which is significantly lower than seasonal trends [3][17]. - The petrochemical and metallurgy sectors showed weaker cost performance compared to previous years, with cost rates rising by 37.3 basis points to 86.5% and declining by 18.2 basis points to 87%, respectively [3][17]. Group 3: Revenue Support from Infrastructure and Exports - The coal and metallurgy sectors, along with downstream consumer industries, provided significant support to revenue due to infrastructure investment and export activities [4][27]. - The actual revenue growth rate fell by 1.6 percentage points to 5.5%, with the petrochemical sector experiencing a notable decline of 3 percentage points to 2.1% [4][27]. - The consumer manufacturing sector maintained a relatively high revenue growth rate of 7.8%, supported by short-term export activities [4][27]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Uncertainties - The impact of tariffs on profitability may manifest with a lag, and the low capacity utilization in the mid and downstream sectors adds uncertainty to future profit recovery [4][33]. - Historical data indicates that the impact of profit margins on profits is greater than that of revenue, with current low capacity utilization keeping cost rates high [4][33]. - Previous experiences suggest that after tariff implementation, profit growth may decline more sharply than revenue due to increased fixed costs and reduced asset turnover [4][33]. Group 5: Regular Tracking of Industrial Enterprises - Industrial enterprise profits showed a recovery, primarily benefiting from improved profit margins, with a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points [5][78]. - Revenue growth for industrial enterprises remained stable, with significant increases in the food and beverage sectors, where revenue growth rates rose by 8.8%, 7.0%, and 2.9% year-on-year [5][50]. - Inventory growth slightly declined, indicating that terminal demand still requires further recovery, with nominal inventory down 0.3 percentage points to 3.9% [5][61].

Revenue and Profit Trends - In April 2025, industrial enterprises' cumulative revenue increased by 3.2% year-on-year, down from 3.4% in the previous month[7] - Cumulative profit for April 2025 rose by 1.4% year-on-year, an increase from 0.8% in March[7] - The profit growth rate for April improved by 0.4 percentage points to 2.9% compared to the previous month[2] Cost and Profit Margin Analysis - The overall cost rate for industrial enterprises was 86% in April, showing a marginal decline of 12.6 basis points year-on-year[15] - The contribution of cost improvement to overall profit was +2.7 percentage points, while expenses contributed +0.5 percentage points[2] - The profit margin for downstream consumer manufacturing improved, with a cost rate increase of 59.7 basis points to 84.3%[15] Sector Performance Insights - The coal and metallurgy sectors, along with downstream consumer industries, provided significant revenue support due to infrastructure investment and export activities[20] - The actual revenue growth rate for the petrochemical sector fell by 3 percentage points to 2.1% in April, while the consumer manufacturing sector maintained a relatively high growth rate of 7.8%[20] - Foreign and joint-stock enterprises saw profit growth rates increase by 1.7 and 0.4 percentage points to 1.9% and 4.1%, respectively, while state-owned enterprises experienced a significant decline of 10.2 percentage points to -17.4%[32]

Core Viewpoint - April's profit growth is primarily driven by short-term improvements in costs and expenses, but attention is needed on potential profit decline pressures in the third quarter due to tariff disturbances [3][76]. Group 1: Profit and Revenue Analysis - In April, industrial profits increased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 2.9%, mainly due to improved cost and expense pressures [3][9]. - The contribution of costs and expenses to overall profit improved, with costs contributing +2.7 percentage points and expenses +0.5 percentage points, while other losses contributed negatively [3][9]. - Actual operating revenue showed resilience, with a year-on-year decline of 1.6 percentage points to 5.5%, contributing 4.9% to overall profit growth [3][9]. Group 2: Cost Structure and Industry Performance - The overall cost rate for industrial enterprises was 86%, with a year-on-year marginal decline of 12.6 basis points [3][17]. - Downstream consumer manufacturing industries saw a cost rate increase of 59.7 basis points to 84.3%, which was significantly lower than seasonal trends [3][17]. - In contrast, the petrochemical and metallurgy chains experienced weaker cost rate performance compared to previous years, with respective increases of 37.3 basis points to 86.5% and a decrease of 18.2 basis points to 87% [3][17]. Group 3: Revenue Support from Infrastructure and Export - Benefiting from infrastructure investment and export boosts, the coal and metallurgy chains, along with downstream consumer industries, provided significant revenue support [4][27]. - The actual revenue growth rate fell by 1.6 percentage points to 5.5%, with the petrochemical industry experiencing a notable decline of 3 percentage points to 2.1% [4][27]. - The "export rush" temporarily supported revenue growth in the consumer manufacturing chain, which saw a year-on-year decline of 1.5 percentage points to 7.8% [4][27]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Uncertainties - Future profit recovery remains uncertain due to potential lagging effects of tariffs and low capacity utilization in mid- and downstream sectors [4][33]. - Historical data indicates that profit margins have a greater impact on profits than revenue, with current low capacity utilization keeping consumer manufacturing cost rates high [4][33]. - Past experiences suggest that post-tariff implementation may lead to declines in asset turnover and rising fixed costs, causing profit growth to fall more sharply than revenue [4][33]. Group 5: Regular Tracking of Industrial Enterprises - Industrial enterprise profits showed a recovery, primarily due to improved profit margins, with a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points [5][78]. - Revenue growth for industrial enterprises remained stable, with significant increases in the food and beverage sector, where revenue growth rates rose by 8.8, 7.0, and 2.9 percentage points for food, alcohol, and agricultural products, respectively [5][50]. - Inventory growth slightly declined, indicating that terminal demand still requires further recovery, with nominal inventory down 0.3 percentage points to 3.9% [5][61].

Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily [1] - Date: May 27, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - A-share market decline and loose funding led to a slight increase in treasury bond futures across the board. The yields of major on-the-run interest rate bonds mostly declined slightly, with the 10-year treasury bond active bond yield rising 0.2bp. The central bank's net injection in the open market resulted in loose funding. Considering the marginal weakening but resilient April economic data, and the tariff disturbances entering a buffer period, the short-term fundamentals have no significant downward risk, and policies may enter an observation period with a low possibility of further intensification. The bond market has entered a narrow oscillation pattern, but with the peak of government bond supply in May passing and the central bank's continuous support, the short end may perform better [8][9][10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: A-share market decline and loose funding led to a slight increase in treasury bond futures across the board. The yields of major on-the-run interest rate bonds mostly declined slightly, with fluctuations within 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10-year treasury bond active bond 250004 was reported at 1.6910%, up 0.2bp [8][9] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major on-the-run interest rate bonds in the interbank market mostly declined slightly, with fluctuations within 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10-year treasury bond active bond 250004 was reported at 1.6910%, up 0.2bp [9] - **Funding Market**: The central bank had a net injection in the open market, resulting in loose funding. There were 135 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 382 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 247 billion yuan. Short-term interbank funding rates showed mixed trends, with the weighted overnight rate of interbank deposits falling about 5bp to 1.51%, the 7-day rate falling 7bp to around 1.66%, and medium- to long-term funds remaining stable [10] - **Conclusion**: The April economic data showed marginal weakening but resilience. With tariff disturbances entering a buffer period, there is no significant short-term downward risk in the fundamentals. Policies may enter an observation period, and the possibility of further intensification is low. The bond market has entered a narrow oscillation pattern, but with the peak of government bond supply in May passing and the central bank's continuous support, the short end may perform better [11] 3.2 Industry News - **Policy and Management**: The central bank and the SAFE plan to improve the management of funds for overseas direct listings of domestic enterprises. Many provinces have proposed stricter management of special bond funds. The CFFEX will enrich the participant structure of the treasury bond futures market [12][13] - **Market Trends**: Most banks' large-denomination certificate of deposit rates have declined, and wealth management companies have reduced fees. The first 50-year special treasury bond was issued, and the market is focusing on supply pressure and funding [13] - **International News**: Trump agreed that the US does not need to bring the textile manufacturing industry back home and hopes to manufacture large items such as chips, computers, and AI in the US [14] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Data on trading of treasury bond futures contracts on May 26, including settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, trading volumes, and open interest, are provided [6] - **Money Market**: Information on SHIBOR term structure changes, SHIBOR trends, and interbank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate changes is presented [28][30] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curves and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves is provided [33]

Credit Growth - In April, the total social financing increased by CNY 1.16 trillion, below the expected CNY 1.3 trillion and significantly lower than the previous month's CNY 5.9 trillion[2] - New RMB loans amounted to CNY 280 billion, compared to an expectation of CNY 764.4 billion and a previous increase of CNY 3.6 trillion[2] - Corporate loans decreased by CNY 2.5 trillion year-on-year, with new corporate loans at CNY 610 billion in April[3] Household Loans - Household medium and long-term loans showed resilience, with a year-on-year decrease of CNY 435 billion, maintaining a marginal improvement from March[2] - Short-term household loans decreased by CNY 501 billion year-on-year, indicating a weakening trend[2] Corporate Financing Factors - The slowdown in corporate loans is attributed to several factors, including a reduced pace of debt replacement and weakened demand due to tariff disturbances[3] - Special refinancing bonds issued in April totaled CNY 261.7 billion, down CNY 121.3 billion from the previous month, indicating a decline in overall replacement capacity[3] Government Bond Financing - In April, government bond financing contributed significantly, with an increase of CNY 9.76 trillion year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of over CNY 1 trillion increase[4] - The issuance of special bonds in April was CNY 230.1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of CNY 239.6 billion[4] Monetary Supply - M2 growth improved to 8% in April, while M1 growth decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 1.5%[5] - Non-bank deposits saw a significant increase, reflecting the end of the interest rate pricing self-discipline mechanism and the entry of capital into the stock market[5]

晶科能源董事长李仙德表示，本轮光伏行业的供求失衡是多因素叠加作用的结果，长期维度包括行业从 补贴时代完全进入平价时代的切换，中期维度包括产业自身的扩张——收缩周期，以及主流电池技术从 PERC向TOPCon切换；短期维度包括2022年的一些国际事件对欧洲天然气价格和新能源需求的剧烈刺 激，造成本轮行业供需失衡的程度较大，时间较长。 阿特斯董事、总经理、首席执行官庄岩称，行业供过于求局面目前没有出现根本性变化，2025年公司在 行业产品价格有明显回升之前，继续平衡组件出货量和利润的关系，优先保证高价市场订单。 如何应对关税扰动：预计影响可消化，持续本土化与多元化布局 中国光伏产品作为出口新三样之一，在全球市场享有极高的份额，头部企业营收的相当部分来自海外市 场。近期国际关税政策的扰动也让企业再度思考出海策略。 5月13日，四家光伏组件头部企业晶科能源（688223.SH）、晶澳科技（002459）（002459.SZ）、天合 光能（688599.SH）、阿特斯（688472.SH）同日召开业绩会。 光伏行业曾是新能源板块最热门的赛道，但在供需失衡、贸易壁垒等多重因素冲击下，去年多家光伏企 业交出了史上最差成绩单 ...

这位分析师还补充说，华尔街对沃尔玛的每股收益共识预期是可以实现的，他将重点关注公司如何评估 关税对全年业绩展望的影响。 "我们预计WMT会传达与其投资者日上类似的信息……现在还不是放弃2025财年业绩指引（中值为每股 收益2.55美元）的时候，"Kelly表示。"WMT通常在给出指引时会留有超预期的空间，而宏观疲软和关 税不确定性显然至少削弱了一部分上行潜力。" "WMT有望借助关税扰动加速市场份额的扩大，"Kelly写道，"其资产负债表足够稳健，能够保持库存流 通并进行采购调整；在中国之外获得供应能力，可能会以竞争对手的份额为代价；采用组合式定价策略 意味着WMT在关税商品上的提价幅度可能低于其他公司；其产品种类广泛，也有利于实现替代效应。 WMT并非完全不受影响，但显然比大多数公司准备得更充分。" Kelly的评论出现在市场因美国对进口商品征收高额关税而波动不安的背景下，这些关税引发了全球市 场的不确定性。他的评论也正值沃尔玛下周即将发布季度财报之前。 "WMT看起来有望在动荡背景下交出一份稳健的财报。在持续的宏观不确定性、注重性价比的消费者以 及公司自身的改善措施推动下，其市场份额可能进一步扩大；一个表 ...

Group 1 - The Peruvian government has implemented a curfew in the Pataz region due to rising crime, suspending all mining activities for 30 days, which may raise concerns about the stability of copper supply from Peru, the world's third-largest copper producer [1] - Peru's copper production for 2024 is projected at 2.736 million tons, accounting for approximately 10% of global output, indicating the significance of any disruptions in this region [1] - The Pataz region primarily produces gold and silver, with limited copper production, suggesting that the impact on precious metal prices may be relatively minor despite the mining suspension [1] Group 2 - The overall weakness in non-ferrous metals is attributed to two main factors: the impact of the trade war initiated by the Trump administration on the US economy and the significant fluctuations in demand expectations due to tariffs [2] - Domestic copper consumption in China exceeded expectations with an 8% growth in apparent consumption in the first quarter, but a seasonal decline is anticipated post-May, which may weaken the demand-side support for copper prices [2] - Analysts remain cautiously optimistic about copper prices in the medium term, despite potential high-level corrections, as the fundamentals appear strong, and the market is currently experiencing low inventory levels [3]