12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。 会议在部署明年经济工作重点任务时明确提出，坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场。 具体包括：深入实施提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划；扩大优质商品和服务供给；优 化"两新"政策实施；清理消费领域不合理限制措施，释放服务消费潜力；推动投资止跌回稳，适当增加 中央预算内投资规模，优化实施"两重"项目，优化地方政府专项债券用途管理，继续发挥新型政策性金 融工具作用，有效激发民间投资活力；高质量推进城市更新。 中央经济工作会议提出坚持内需主导释放出什么信号？如何清理消费领域不合理限制措施？在具体措施 层面，从加力扩围到优化"两新"政策实施，如何理解表述的转变？围绕上述疑问，《每日经济新闻》记 者（以下简称NBD）近日对中国宏观经济研究院研究员张燕生进行了专访。 大国的现代化必须以内需为主导 NBD：中央经济工作会议将内需主导放在明年经济工作的首位，并明确提出坚持内需主导。这释放了 什么信号？ 张燕生：今年全国两会期间，政府工作报告就把扩大国内需求作为经济工作的重中之重。年末举行的中 央经济工作会议把坚持内需主导作为明年各项任务之首。虽然提法有所不同，但重要性实质 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, with a focus on new consumption sectors such as beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry [5][29]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference prioritized domestic demand, emphasizing the need to build a strong domestic market and implement measures to boost consumption [3][23]. - In November 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, with the core CPI rising by 1.2% [3][23]. - The report highlights significant investments in the beauty care sector, including Proya's acquisition of a stake in Beijing Huaguan Biotechnology and L'Oréal increasing its stake in Galderma to 20% [3][23][29]. Market Performance - During the week of December 8-12, 2025, the retail, social services, and beauty care sectors experienced declines of 0.21%, 0.76%, and 1.64% respectively [14][15]. - Notably, the education and general retail sub-sectors saw increases of 1.58% and 1.37% [15][18]. Key Industry Events and News - The National Retail Innovation Development Conference emphasized a shift towards quality-driven and service-driven retail, aiming for high-quality development [4][27]. - The report notes a significant increase in card trading on platforms like Xianyu, with a 21% year-on-year growth in trading volume for the first three quarters of 2025 [4][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies for investment, including Proya, Giant Bio, Marubi, Runben, Chaohongji, and Furuida, focusing on sectors with growth potential [5][29].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [44]. Core Insights - In November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China reached 43,898 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, reflecting a significant decline in growth rates both year-on-year and month-on-month [10][11]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November increased by 0.7% year-on-year, up from 0.2% in October, indicating rising inflationary pressures [10]. - Retail sales growth for goods and dining both saw a month-on-month decline, with goods retailing growing by 1.0% year-on-year and dining income increasing by 3.2% year-on-year [11][12]. - Online retail sales from January to November 2025 totaled 144,582 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, which accounted for 31.7% of total retail sales [34]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - The total retail sales of consumer goods in November 2025 were 43,898 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points from the previous year and a month-on-month decline of 1.6 percentage points [10][11]. Segment Analysis - In November, among 16 categories of goods, 7 categories (including daily necessities, tobacco and alcohol, home appliances, furniture, petroleum products, automobiles, and building materials) experienced negative growth. Only the Chinese and Western medicine category saw an increase in growth rate [17][18]. - The cultural and office supplies category and communication equipment category showed strong growth, both exceeding 11% [17]. Online Retail - Cumulative online retail sales from January to November reached 144,582 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.1%, which is an increase of 1.7 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [34][36]. - The physical goods online retail sales amounted to 118,193 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [34]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as food and beverage, social services, and retail, particularly highlighting opportunities in the liquor industry, consumer goods, and tourism sectors due to expected policy support for domestic consumption [38][39][42].

注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 12月16日早盘，创业板50ETF国泰（159375）回调超2.5%。 中泰证券指出，中央经济工作会议在内需、消费、"反内卷"方面政策有结构性调整，可能带来市场热点 轮动。创新药与医疗器械在集采及老龄化支持等政策变化下或有估值修复表现。集采方面，会议明确强 调"优化药品集中采购"，提升有知识产权及专利储备的医药企业利润空间。会议将"内需主导"作为明年 政策的第一项，内需中重点强调的是"释放服务消费潜力"，"国补"或由汽车转向服务消费。另外，"反 内卷"政策的重点还将包括"平台企业"，"深入推进中小金融机构减量提质"，预计券商整合或将加速。 创业板50ETF国泰（159375）跟踪的是创业板50指数（399673），单日涨跌幅达20%，该指数从创业板 市场中筛选出流动性优异、市值规模领先的 ...

12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行，向期待已久的社会各方明确了2026年中国经济工作的重点方向和 任务。 多家券商及研究机构专业人士从核心方向、宏观政策和投资机会等多个维度进行了解读。 "会议部署的八大重点任务构成了2026年经济工作的施工图。其中，'内需主导'与'创新驱动'位居前两位，清晰地指 明了短期稳增长与中长期动能转换的路径。这些任务并非孤立，而是相互关联、协同推进的系统工程。"华福证券总裁助 理兼研究所所长任志强向《金融时报》记者讲述了他的学习体会。 中金公司首席宏观经济分析师张文朗认为，本次会议客观分析了中国经济面临的发展形势，不回避困难挑战，突出 问题导向，目标非常清晰，直接回应了市场和社会对消费、投资、房地产、企业账款、市场竞争秩序等一系列热点问题 的广泛关切。 总基调：稳中求进 会议明确了明年的经济工作政策取向为"稳中求进、提质增效"，其中"提质增效"是今年的新要求。 "政策总基调在'稳中求进'的基础上，增加了'提质增效'的政策取向。"在长城证券首席经济学家汪毅看来，对于明年 的经济工作，本次中央经济工作会议仍然以"稳"字当头，但是更加强调"增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续扩大 ...

（4）数据显示，截至12月15日，境内ETF总份额3.3万亿份，总规模5.78万亿元，较年初净增超2万亿元，增速创历史新 高。规模跃升源于产品创新、投资者结构变化等多重因素共振，其中保险、养老金等长期资金配置需求集中释放是主因； 透明度高、流动性佳的ETF成为机构布局权益市场的首选工具，被动投资浪潮持续升温。 一、交易提示 中央经济工作会议把"坚持内需主导"列为明年八大任务之首，明确提出提振消费专项行动、城乡居民增收计划及"两新"政 策升级。政策暖风下，基金经理认为消费板块正处温和修复通道，但内部分化显著，2026年将重点挖掘优质供给、性价比 零售、银发经济等细分赛道，借助盈利改善与估值双击获取超额收益。 12月15日,A股三大股指低开高走冲高回落,全天整体呈现倒"V"型走势,截止收盘,沪指跌0.55%报3867.92点,深成指跌1.1%报 13112.09点,创业板指跌1.77%报3137.8点,科创50指数跌2.22%报1318.91点,全市场成交额1.79万亿元,较前一交易日缩量3246 亿元,超2900股下跌。 二、基金要闻 （1）12月15日新发基金共有17只，主要为股票型基金和混合型基金，其中广发 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that domestic demand will dominate and set the economic tone for the coming year, with a short-term focus on improvements in the export chain [2] Industry News - The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing, highlighting the importance of domestic demand [2] - A notification on strengthening the collaboration between commerce and finance to boost consumption was officially released [2] Important Company Announcements - Jian Sheng Group announced an investment of 818 million yuan in capacity construction in Egypt [2] - Ribo Fashion plans to acquire 71% of Indile's shares for 1.42 billion yuan through a combination of issuing shares and cash payment [2] Market Review - From December 8 to December 12, the light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.96 percentage points, with a decline of 1.04% compared to the CSI 300's decline of 0.08% [2] - During the same period, the textile and apparel sector lagged behind the CSI 300 index by 2.49 percentage points, with a decline of 2.57% [2] Weekly Strategy - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need to build a strong domestic market as a primary task for economic work next year. Policies for replacing old products in sectors like automobiles, home appliances, and home furnishings are expected to continue [2] - The real estate market will be stabilized with city-specific measures to control inventory and encourage the purchase of existing homes for affordable housing [2] - Approximately 100 cities, including Hangzhou and Wuhan, have increased housing purchase subsidies this year, indicating a less pessimistic outlook for the real estate sector [2] Recommendations - The report maintains a "neutral" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors, while suggesting to continue monitoring companies with strong overseas capacity and brand pricing power [3] - Companies such as Oppein Home (603833), Sophia (002572), Pathfinder (300005), Semir Apparel (002563), Guibao Pet (301498), and Zhongchong Co. (002891) are rated as "overweight" [3]

Group 1 - The core message of the article emphasizes the importance of "domestic demand as the main driver" for China's economic growth, particularly in light of the changing international environment and the need to address the imbalance between strong supply and weak demand [2][3] - The Central Economic Work Conference highlighted the implementation of specific actions to boost consumption and the formulation of plans to increase income for urban and rural residents, indicating a commitment to expanding domestic demand [2][3] - The meeting also stressed the need to enhance the supply of quality goods and services, aligning with consumer demand to stimulate robust consumption, and set strategic goals for significant consumption sectors by 2027 [4][5] Group 2 - The article outlines a dual approach to encourage consumer spending: increasing income and reducing burdens on consumers, including the introduction of annual childcare subsidies and tax exemptions for these subsidies [3][4] - It mentions the establishment of a consumption growth matrix focusing on diverse and personalized consumption scenarios, with specific sectors identified for growth, such as elderly products and smart connected vehicles [5] - The overall strategy of prioritizing domestic demand is presented as a pragmatic response to current challenges while also being a long-term strategic layout for sustainable economic development [5]

[Table_Title] 谁来接棒托底内需？ 丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 ——11 月经济数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 从 11 月经济和政策信号来看，一方面是过去经济增长的结构性支撑在持续转弱，但另一方面， 政策对短期波动的定力不减反增：2025 年中央经济工作会议首次提出（将）"存量政策和增量 政策纳入宏观政策取向一致性评估。"12 月政治局会议首次提出"坚持内需主导"，均体现出在 政策端对于加速培育新业态发展的决心进一步增强。我们认为，在人口老龄化、地方化债的背 景下，地产基建投资或难有显著改善，"反内卷"则抑制着制造业投资的弹性，这意味着投资的 上行空间较为有限，叠加耐用品消费明显承压，服务消费料将成为 2026 托底内需的主要抓手。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com ——11 月经济数据点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2025 年 12 月 15 日，国家统计局公布 11 月经济数 ...

12月15日，A股三大指数集体回调，消费板块逆势上涨。其中，商业百货与食品饮料板块逆市掀涨停 潮，欢乐家涨幅达19.98%，红旗连锁、中央商场、百大集团、新世界、广百股份、美凯龙、皇氏集 团、均瑶健康、莲花控股、孚日股份、南侨食品、中粮糖业、阳光乳业等实现涨停。 在消费供给端，《通知》明确要创新多元化消费场景、助力消费帮扶。具体举措包括结合县域商业提质 增效和农村电商高质量发展，探索开发专属贷款产品；鼓励金融机构主动融入城乡消费新场景、新热 点，拓宽线上渠道，强化线下服务，积极打造场景化的金融服务品牌；鼓励开展推荐信贷项目等定点帮 扶合作，加大金融机构对定点帮扶县"融资+融智"支持等。 在提振消费的进程中，政策持续发力。另据新华社报道，12月8日召开的中共中央政治局会议明确了 2026年经济工作"稳中求进、提质增效"的总基调，在部署的八项"坚持"中，"坚持内需主导，建设强大 国内市场"位居首位。会议提出要继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，增强政策前瞻 性针对性协同性，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。 消息面上，12月14日，商务部、中国人民银行、国家金融监管总局联合印发《关于加强商务和金 ...